Core Insights - The music industry in 2025 is perceived as a "small year" due to the lack of breakout new hits, with many of the top songs being older tracks [1][4][8] - Despite the perception of a "small year," 2025 is also seen as a "watershed" moment with the rise of AI, stagnation in music streaming, and a booming live performance market reshaping the music economy [3][12][23] Streaming and Song Popularity - Major platforms like Spotify and TikTok show that the top songs of 2025 are predominantly older tracks, with Spotify's top three songs being from previous years [4][8] - The most popular song of 2025 is "APT." by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars, which was released in 2024 but continues to dominate charts [4][8] - In the Chinese music scene, songs like "Jumping Machine" and "Great Ambition," both released in 2024, are leading the charts, indicating a similar trend [10][12] Live Performance Market - The live performance market is thriving in 2025, with record-breaking ticket sales for top artists, indicating a shift in focus from recorded music to live events [20][22] - The touring market is now seen as a primary revenue driver, with artists' streaming numbers significantly increasing during tour periods [21][22] AI and Industry Dynamics - The rise of AI-generated music is creating new trends, with AI songs starting to gain traction, although they are not yet mainstream [16][25] - The music industry is experiencing a generational shift, with older artists dominating while younger preferences are not being met, leading to a potential decline in industry vitality [14][23] - The concept of "super fan economy" is emerging, emphasizing deeper connections with core fans as streaming revenue growth slows [23][25] Market Performance Data - The global recorded music market is projected to see a significant decline, with streaming revenue growth slowing down dramatically, particularly in the U.S. where it dropped by 40% year-on-year [17][20] - Various countries are experiencing reduced growth in their music markets, with notable declines in streaming revenue across major markets [17] Future Outlook - The music industry is at a crossroads, with the potential for AI to reshape the landscape, but also a growing divide between fans of traditional music and those embracing AI [28][29] - The future may see a continued emphasis on live performances and a more segmented market as consumer preferences evolve [28][29]

Core Insights - The global music market, after ten years of growth, is experiencing stagnation, with significant declines in major markets such as the US, UK, Germany, France, and South Korea in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1][3][4] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the US recorded a growth of only 0.9%, a stark contrast to the 4% growth in the same period of 2024. The annual growth for 2024 was adjusted to 2.7% [3][4] - Other major markets also showed reduced growth: the UK at 5.2% (down from 7.9%), Germany at 1.4% (down from 7.6%), and France at 3.4% (down from 5.9%) [4][5] - South Korea's music market has not published overall revenue data, but significant declines were noted in album sales and streaming [4][5] Streaming and Consumption Trends - The slowdown in streaming growth is a critical factor contributing to the stagnation of the music market. Streaming was the primary driver of growth over the past decade, but its expansion has now plateaued [6][9] - In the US, the 0.9% growth in the first half of 2025 was primarily supported by streaming revenue, which increased by 2.3%, while other music consumption formats like vinyl and CDs saw declines [9][10] Impact of Major Artists - The absence of major artists, such as Taylor Swift, who had a significant impact on the market in previous years, is believed to have contributed to the current downturn. Her upcoming album is seen as a potential catalyst for market recovery [11] - The demand for "super IPs" is evident, with calls for the return of popular groups like BLACKPINK and BTS in South Korea to rejuvenate the market [11] Future Directions - The music industry is at a crossroads, needing to rethink its strategies in light of the current stagnation. Companies like Spotify are making significant changes to enhance user engagement and explore new revenue models [13][15] - The concept of "super fan economy" is gaining traction, with major labels exploring new subscription models and community engagement strategies to deepen consumer connections with artists [18][21]

里昂对腾讯音乐美股目标价由20美元升至25美元，H股目标价由77.7港元升至97.1港元，维持"跑赢大 市"评级；对网易云音乐目标价由250港元升至297港元，评级由"高度确信跑赢大市"降至"跑赢大市"。 里昂发表报告指，该行第三次音乐调查结果再次确认其对中国在线/离线音乐娱乐市场的正面看法，因 为消费需求的复苏、超级粉丝经济的巨大潜力以及良性的竞争格局，都支持可持续的利润增长前景。报 告指，注意到年轻和低收入用户的支付倾向有显著的季度改善，倾向于等待折扣的"摇摆用户"有所减 少，而自称对价格不敏感的"快乐消费者"有所增加。 ...