分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：谢孟津 S1050123110012 xiemj@cfsc.com.cn | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机(申万) | 10.1 | 19.5 | 83.8 | | 沪深 300 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 26.3 | 2025 年 08 月 20 日 研 Spotify（SPOT）：付费用户与 MAU 构筑增长 韧性 究 报 告 推荐(维持) 事件 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 （UBER.O）：业务与生态构筑协同 效应》2025-08-19 2、《计算机行业周报：智谱 AI 发 布 GLM-4.5V 多模态模型，昆仑万维 发 布 业 界 首 个 多 模 态 深 度 调 研 Agent》2025-08-18 行 3、《小马智行（PONY.O）：营收增 长领跑行业，Robotaxi 爆发+全球化 布局驱动财务拐点》2025-08-18 业 研 2025 年 7 月 29 日 Spotify 发布 2025 年第二季度财报，总收 入达到 42 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The return of everyday dining and the rise of home-cooked meals are significant trends, with the market for casual dining exceeding 1.2 trillion RMB, emphasizing high cost-performance [5][58] - The creator economy, particularly in the music streaming sector, is experiencing stable growth, with platforms enhancing their bargaining power through non-music content [22][24] - The casual dining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 55.87 billion RMB by 2028 [56][58] Summary by Sections 1. Trend in Casual Dining - The average spending on Chinese dining has decreased from 87.6 RMB in 2023 to 79.2 RMB in 2024, a decline of 9.6% [53][55] - The casual dining market is characterized by a shift towards high cost-performance and practicality, with a significant increase in home cooking frequency [53][56] - The market for affordable casual dining (under 100 RMB per meal) is the largest segment, accounting for 88.7% of the total dining market, with a current size of 36.18 billion RMB [56][58] 2. Creator Economy and Music Streaming - The global music streaming market is projected to reach over 20.4 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [27][30] - Subscription users in the music streaming sector are expected to grow to 263 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11% year-on-year [30] - Spotify's market penetration in emerging markets is driving user growth, with a CAGR of 35% from 2021 to 2025 [26][30] 3. Trends in Toy and Creator Economy - The online sales of trendy toys in June 2025 reached 1.348 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [12][14] - The sales of blind boxes and plush toys showed strong performance, with blind boxes growing by 109% year-on-year [12][13] - The creator economy is bolstered by the growth of non-music content, enhancing platforms' bargaining power [22][24] 4. Beauty and Personal Care Market - The skincare market on Tmall has seen a concentration increase, with the top 20 brands accounting for 46.2% of the total GMV [66] - Domestic brands have seen a decline in both quantity and market share, while international brands have experienced double-digit growth [66][67]

Company Overview - Spotify has achieved a remarkable 57% return for investors since the beginning of the year, with its stock trading at a record high despite broader market turmoil [2] - The company holds a dominant position in the music streaming industry with a global market share of 31.7%, significantly ahead of Tencent Music at 14.4% [4] Market Strategy - Spotify is heavily investing in podcasting and video content to enhance user engagement, with users spending 44% more time on video content compared to the previous year [5] - The introduction of a new compensation model for creators has resulted in over $100 million paid out in the first quarter of 2025, potentially leading to an influx of new content [5] Technological Advancements - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence to improve user experience, including features like AI Playlist that generates song lists based on user prompts [6][7] - These AI-driven features aim to increase user engagement and retention on the platform [7] Financial Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, Spotify reported 268 million paying subscribers and 423 million free users, with paying subscribers accounting for 90% of revenue [8] - Revenue projections indicate a record $20.5 billion for 2025, representing a 13.7% increase from the previous year, and $23.7 billion in 2026, with a growth rate of 15.7% [9] Profitability - Spotify's operating expenses decreased by 2% in Q1, leading to a significant 158% year-over-year increase in free cash flow to $615 million [10] - Analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $10.33 in 2025, a 63% increase from the previous year, and $14.88 in 2026, indicating further growth [10] Valuation Concerns - Despite positive growth indicators, Spotify's stock is trading at a high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 8.6, the highest since its IPO in 2018 [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 119, making it significantly more expensive than the S&P 500, which has a P/E ratio of 23.7 [13] - Even with projected EPS for 2025 and 2026, Spotify's forward P/E ratios remain high at 69 and 48, respectively, suggesting limited upside potential in the near term [14] Long-term Outlook - CEO Daniel Ek has projected that Spotify could reach $100 billion in annual revenue by 2032, indicating a potential fivefold increase from 2025 expectations [16][17] - However, the evolving competitive landscape and technological advancements could impact this long-term vision, making current investment decisions more complex [17]

Group 1 - MSCI Nordic Countries Index experienced a slight decline, ending a four-day upward trend, closing at 334.37 points [1] - The Nordic telecommunications services sector was the worst-performing sector [1] - Spotify Technology SA, a Nordic music streaming company, saw a significant drop of 5.9%, making it the worst performer among the constituents [1]

分组1 - Spotify reported quarterly earnings of $1.13 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.29 per share, representing an earnings surprise of -50.66% [1] - The company posted revenues of $4.41 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.08%, compared to year-ago revenues of $3.95 billion [2] - Over the last four quarters, Spotify has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] 分组2 - Spotify shares have increased approximately 33.6% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by -6% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $2.46 on revenues of $4.74 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $10.61 on revenues of $19.65 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Spotify is currently favorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] 分组3 - The Zacks Industry Rank for Internet - Software is currently in the bottom 43% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting that the industry outlook can materially impact stock performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]