Workflow
超长久期策略
icon
Search documents
信用周报:票息资产机会的“短”和“长”-20251015
China Post Securities· 2025-10-15 06:13
证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-10-15 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:李书开 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040001 Email:lishukai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中短久期低评级城投债流动性上升 ——流动性打分周报 20251013》 - 2025.10.14 融资政策超预期事件、信用黑天鹅事件。 信用周度观点 票息资产机会的"短"和"长" ——信用周报 20251014 ⚫ 票息资产机会的"短"和"长" 债市 9 月经历持续调整,票息资产性价比有所提升,国庆假期前 后修复行情开启,信用债修复情况期限分化,短端修复力度较大。国 庆假期前后两周,跨季资金面较为平稳叠加关税扰动重现,债市开启 修复行情,信用债同步利率走强。超长期限信用债修复力度较弱,部 分品种甚至仍在调整,表现不及同期限的利率债。 二永债行情同步强且"波动放大器"的特征明显,1Y-5Y 修复程 度高于普信债,但超长期限部分行情不佳,仍在持续走弱。目前曲线 从绝对位置来看 3 年及以上的部分 ...
超长信用债探微跟踪:超长信用债重归缩量
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 13:55
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ultra - long credit bond market continues. Some investors prefer to extend the duration to earn excess returns as the yield of medium - and short - duration credit bonds is close to the annual low, and there is a constraint on the subsequent downward range [2][13] - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds has recovered, but the average issuance interest rate has fluctuated greatly. The coupon increase has promoted the recovery of the subscription sentiment, which has returned to around the 50% percentile since 2024 [3][22] - The performance of ultra - long credit bonds is stable, but the trading sentiment has cooled down in June. The trading rhythm of industrial bonds over 7 years has slowed down, and the pricing of 5 - 7 - year long bonds has become extreme. The ultra - long - duration strategy is still recommended to be cautious [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - The ultra - long credit bond market persists. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% has increased to 336 compared with last week [2][13] 2. Primary Issuance Situation - Two special bonds for stable growth and expanded investment were issued in large quantities this week, with a total issuance scale of 39.5 billion, driving a significant increase in the supply of new ultra - long credit bonds. The average issuance interest rate has fluctuated greatly, and the coupon rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds has risen to 2.42%. The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds has recovered to around the 50% percentile since 2024 [3][22] 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The performance of ultra - long credit bonds is stable. The index of AA + credit bonds over 10 years has increased by 0.36%. The trading rhythm of industrial bonds over 7 years has slowed down, with 140 fewer trading volumes compared with the previous week. Although the trading sentiment has cooled down in June, the TKN trading proportion of credit bonds over 7 years still shows a relatively high buying interest, and the deviation between trading yield and valuation has not fluctuated significantly. Public funds and wealth management have significantly reduced their increase in the scale of general credit bonds with a duration of 5 - 10 years. Insurance has become the main buyer of 15 - 30 - year bonds again, but its stability in buying long - term bonds this year is not as good as last year [4][31][42]