岁末：无序波动与储备票息。 回望 2025，债市以如虹涨势启幕，却以超预期波动贯穿始终。收官之月更是全年胶着与无序的缩影：持有收益在数日 回调中消磨殆尽，超长端波动尤甚。债市涨跌缺乏规律之际，叠加岁末考核压力，债市避险情绪促使各类账户配置行 为趋于一致。投资者普遍弃长取短，将头寸高度集中于 1 年至 3 年期票息资产，试图以久期的收缩对抗净值的不确定 性。基金是驱动中短债配置的主力，近期单周最高净买入规模达到 212 亿，超过 10 月至年底的周度均值。理财配置 信用债则稍显克制，与年末资金回表有一定关系。 开局：交易空间的度量。 回溯 2025 年 9 月 5 日，征求意见稿的出台曾因赎回费焦虑引发债市负反馈，偏交易属性资产首当其冲，5 年期国股行 二级资本债收益率一度攀升至 2.26%的高点。如今监管脉络迎来实质性反转，修复行情是否蓄势待发？以最朴素的比 价市场来观察，对比不同券种当前估值收益与 9 月 5 日定价来看，除了 10 年及以上超长信用债之外，银行次级债收 益普遍高于当时点位 10bp 以上，而 5 年以内信用债定价与 9 月初水平较为接近。若仅考虑交易的安全边际，银行次 级债及超长信用债用债 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - Due to the narrowing of long - bond spreads to the lowest level since 2024, institutional investors have different views on the allocation of ultra - long credit bonds. With insufficient spread protection and uncertainty about the inflection point, if there are floating profits in ultra - long credit bonds, it is recommended to focus on the profit - taking strategy in the short term [5]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bond yields have marginally adjusted back. Due to the compression of long - bond spreads to the lowest level since 2024, institutional investors' attitudes towards the allocation of ultra - long credit bonds have diverged, and profit - taking behavior has led to a slight adjustment in yields. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% has increased to 299 [2][12]. 2.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of ultra - long credit bonds has reached the bottom. This week, the total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds was 2.3 billion, and only two urban investment entities, Beijing Infrastructure Investment and Anhui Investment Group, issued long - term bonds with a term of 7 years or more (preferred exercise). Although the trading sentiment in the cash bond market has weakened, investors' enthusiasm for participating in the primary market allocation of ultra - long urban investment bonds remains high [3][21]. 2.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - The upward trend of the ultra - long credit bond index has significantly slowed down. This week, the general credit bond index above 7 years has slightly increased. The 7 - 10 - year AA+ credit bond index has increased by 0.03%, and the AA+ credit bond index above 10 years has only increased by 0.11%, performing weaker than long - term interest - rate bonds [29]. - The trading volume of ultra - long credit bonds has significantly decreased. After three consecutive weeks of increase, the spread of general credit bonds above 7 years has been compressed to a low level. The spread between 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds has narrowed to 21bp. Concerned about the insufficient protection space of long - term credit spreads, the number of trading transactions of ultra - long general credit bonds has dropped to 315 this week, a decrease of 35.7% compared with the previous week [32]. - The intensity of buying ultra - long credit bonds at a low valuation has weakened significantly compared with the previous two weeks, and some urban investment long - term bond varieties have even shifted to high - valuation transactions. The proportion of TKN transactions in credit bonds above 10 years has dropped to 54.2% [37]. 3. Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating.

Group 1: Market Trends - The peak period for the opening of amortized bond funds is from November 2025 to the first half of 2026, with a total opening scale exceeding 400 billion yuan[12] - In December 2025, the opening scale will reach 107.7 billion yuan, and in March 2026, it will exceed 116 billion yuan, primarily focusing on 3-year and 5-year products[12] - The demand for 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds will continue to be released, maintaining a strong short-term performance[14] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - The proportion of credit bonds in amortized bond funds has increased significantly, reaching 14.9% by the end of Q3 2025, up from 1.8% at the end of 2024[13] - Bank wealth management has replaced bank proprietary trading as the core incremental funding source, with holdings in amortized bond funds rising from 17.1 billion yuan to 93 billion yuan, a growth of over 5 times[13] - 84% of the increased funding from wealth management is directed towards products with a closed period of 3 years or less, reinforcing the demand for short- to medium-term credit bonds[13] Group 3: Market Structure Differentiation - The credit bond market is experiencing structural differentiation, with medium- to high-grade credit bonds benefiting significantly, while certain bonds are excluded from the amortized bond fund allocation due to SPPI testing[14] - Long-term credit bonds are less favored due to maturity mismatches and profit-taking by banks, while policy financial bonds are seeing reduced compression dynamics due to the shift towards credit bonds[14] - The overall market is characterized by a notable divergence in performance among different bond types[14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View This week, the long - term credit bond market showed a positive trend. The yield of ultra - long credit bonds significantly recovered, the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long credit bonds reached a high level, and the long - bond index performed well. However, the sustainability of the ultra - long credit bond market will be affected by factors such as the market's pricing of new redemption fees, the stability of fund liabilities, and the direction of incremental funds [3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - The yield of ultra - long credit bonds significantly recovered. From October 27 to 31, 2025, due to factors such as the switch between stock and bond preferences, the central bank's mention of "resuming open - market treasury bond trading operations", and stable capital interest rates, the yield of ultra - long credit bonds dropped significantly. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.2% - 2.3% increased to 189 compared with last week [3][14]. 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long credit bonds reached a high level. This week, the total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds was 6 billion, with a relatively low supply. The issuance terms were mainly concentrated in 7 - 10 years. Compared with last week, the average coupon rate of industrial bonds over 7 years decreased by nearly 20bp to 2.37%, and the interest rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds also decreased by more than 10bp. Driven by the spot - bond market, the enthusiasm for primary - market allocation of long - term bonds continued to rise, and the indicator reached about the 80th percentile in the past 24 years [4][23]. 3.3 Secondary Trading Performance - Long - bond indices outperformed. This week, long - term bonds led the bond market rally. The weekly increase of the over - 10 - year treasury bond index reached 1.15%. The ultra - long credit bond index performed relatively well among mainstream credit assets, with the 7 - 10 - year AA+ credit bond index rising 0.74% [5][30]. - The number of ultra - long credit bond transactions did not reach the level from June to July. Although the ultra - long credit bonds had a good rally this week, and the number of transactions of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds reached a new high since August (346 transactions), the total number of transactions of general credit bonds over 7 years was still lower than the average weekly reading from June to July. Moreover, compared with ultra - long general credit bonds, the improvement in the allocation preference for ultra - long secondary capital bonds of large banks was relatively greater, and investors paid more attention to the liquidity of bond varieties when choosing long - term bonds [5][33]. - In line with the secondary - market trading performance, the spread of short - and medium - term credit bonds within 3 years returned to the lowest point of the year. To achieve excess returns, ultra - long credit bonds became the target for extending duration. This week, the extent of transactions below the valuation of this variety widened significantly, and the proportion of TKN transactions in the 7 - 10 - year period approached 80% [5][37]. - In terms of investor structure, funds showed a preference for buying ultra - long credit bonds for the first time since August, with a single - week increase of 1.4 billion in the 7 - 10 - year variety. In the past two weeks, the behavior of insurance and other product categories in holding ultra - long credit bonds was stable, possibly considering reserving assets in advance for next year [5][44].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The credit bond market is currently experiencing a cautious sentiment, with limited compression in credit bond yield spreads, indicating that market participants are still pricing in credit risks [1][2] - The team holds a bearish outlook on future interest rate trends, although recent economic and financial data, including Q3 GDP figures, have had a limited impact on the bond market's trajectory [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - Financial institutions are facing increasing pressure on credit supply, as evidenced by the rising loan-to-deposit ratio, which has increased from approximately 43.3 trillion yuan in January to nearly 60 trillion yuan in September [3] - Insurance companies showed weak performance in credit bond purchases earlier this year, particularly in the first half, but there was a recovery in net buying during Q3. Overall, insurance companies did not reduce their total bond purchases, although they bought fewer government and policy bank bonds while increasing local government bond purchases [4] - The current spread between perpetual bonds and other bonds has narrowed to around 5 basis points. If overall interest rates continue to decline, perpetual bonds may still present trading opportunities [5] Investment Recommendations - For ultra-long credit bonds, it is recommended to participate with a focus on allocation, as their coupon yields remain attractive. It is expected that yields will decline in the future, presenting a favorable risk-reward scenario [5] - In Q4, short-term credit bonds with maturities of around two years are expected to perform normally, with yields likely to decrease slightly as overall interest rates decline. However, the decline in yields for longer maturities, such as 10 or 30 years, is expected to be limited [6] - The investment strategy for Q4 should prioritize coupon income, while also allowing for participation in ultra-long duration strategies, but with controlled trading volumes to ensure stability and avoid excessive volatility [6] Additional Important Points - The overall bond purchasing behavior of insurance companies has been influenced by the strong performance of the stock market, which has alleviated some of the asset scarcity issues faced by these institutions [4] - The credit bond market has entered a period of fluctuation, with recent yield movements reflecting a recovery from previous increases, although the overall compression in yield spreads remains modest [2]

Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - The duration strategy has continued to perform poorly as of September 30, with the cumulative excess return of the AA+ city investment bonds in a barbell strategy dropping to around -34 basis points [2][12] - The duration strategy for perpetual bonds has shown significant volatility, with cumulative excess returns remaining low at -18 basis points and -30 basis points despite a larger recovery after declines in September [2][12] - In contrast, short-end city investment bonds and bullet-type commercial bank bonds have shown relatively better excess returns [2][12] Group 2: Duration Tracking of Various Bonds - As of September 30, the weighted average transaction durations for city investment bonds and industrial bonds are 1.76 years and 2.22 years, respectively, indicating a defensive characteristic and falling within the 65%-80% historical percentile range since 2021 [3][16] - The weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 3.67 years, 3.70 years, and 1.92 years, respectively, showing a notable decline in their percentile levels [3][16] - Other financial bonds, such as securities company bonds and insurance company bonds, have also shown low historical duration percentiles, with durations of 1.51 years, 1.73 years, 4.11 years, and 1.23 years [3][16] Group 3: Yield Heatmap of Coupon Assets - As of September 29, 2025, yields for non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds have generally increased, with significant rises exceeding 9.5 basis points for certain private non-perpetual bonds and state-owned enterprise perpetual bonds [4][20] - The yields for financial bonds have also risen, particularly for mid-to-long-term secondary capital bonds and state-owned bank perpetual bonds, which have increased by over 12 basis points [4][20] - Some short-end products have stabilized, with yields for certain city and rural commercial bank bonds showing minimal changes [4][20] Group 4: Long-term Credit Bond Analysis - The spread between active long-term credit bonds and comparable government bonds has reached a 24-year high, with the spread for 10-year bonds widening to a new annual high [5][22] - Despite the apparent advantages of long-term credit bonds post-adjustment, the lack of incremental funding support suggests that duration strategies should remain cautious until market sentiment improves [5][22] Group 5: Local Government Bond Supply and Trading - The latest week has seen a weak sentiment in the bond market, with the average issuance rates for local government bonds continuing to rise, reaching new highs for bonds with maturities of 20 years and above [6][27] - The issuance rates for local government bonds with maturities of 10 years and above have widened to over 20 basis points compared to similar maturity government bonds, indicating a higher percentile reading for the year [6][27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spread of ultra-long bonds has reached a new high. The yield center of ultra-long credit bonds has continued to rise, the primary issuance has stopped, and the secondary market has shown weak performance. Due to the lack of incremental capital support, the duration strategy still needs to be cautious before the market sentiment significantly recovers [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - The yield center of ultra-long credit bonds has continued to rise. During the week of September 29 - September 30, 2025, the bond market sentiment remained weak, and the interest rate center of stock ultra-long credit bonds further increased. Compared with the previous week, the number of stock ultra-long credit bonds with a yield of 2.6% - 2.7% increased to 248 [2][11][12] 2. Primary Issuance Situation - There was no issuance of ultra-long credit bonds in the week before the National Day [3][20] 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The decline of the ultra-long credit bond index was greater than that of other mainstream bond varieties. This week, the index prices of medium - short - term credit bonds and bank sub - debt showed signs of stabilization, but the ultra-long credit bond index still led the decline. The index of AA + credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years decreased by 0.24% month - on - month [4][21] - The liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds was under pressure. Within two trading days this week, the total number of transactions of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 7 years was 62, and the trend of weakening liquidity continued. In terms of long - bond pricing, the yield and spread of ultra-long credit bonds both increased in the latest week. The increase in the transaction yield of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years was at the forefront, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 50bp [4][24] - The trading sentiment of ultra-long credit bonds was weak. The TKN ratio of varieties with a maturity of over 10 years was at a low level, and the deviation of high - valuation transactions was much higher than that of long - term bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [4][28] - In terms of the investor structure, funds continued to sell ultra-long credit bonds. Concerns about controlling duration risk and the liquidity flaws of the varieties still affected the allocation behavior of trading desks. The purchasing power of institutions such as insurance and wealth management was limited, and the allocation desks had not formed effective support. It was difficult to reverse the adjustment trend of ultra-long credit bonds in the short term [4][32] - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra-long credit bonds of each maturity and treasury bonds of similar maturities rose to a 24 - year high this week, and the spread of varieties around 10 years widened to a new high this year. Looking forward, although the coupon advantage of ultra-long credit bonds is apparent after the adjustment, due to the lack of incremental capital support, the duration strategy still needs to be cautious before the market sentiment significantly recovers [4][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The yield spread of ultra - long bonds has reached a new high. The adjustment trend of ultra - long credit bonds is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the duration strategy needs to be cautious [4][34] - Although the coupon advantage of ultra - long credit bonds is apparent after adjustment, due to the lack of incremental funds and the weak market sentiment, investors should be prudent in adopting the duration strategy [4][34] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1存量市场特征 - The yield center of ultra - long credit bonds has been continuously rising. From September 29 to 30, 2025, the interest rate center of existing ultra - long credit bonds further increased. The number of existing ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.6% - 2.7% increased to 248 compared to the previous week [2][12] 3.2一级发行情况 - There was no issuance of ultra - long credit bonds in the week before the National Day [3][20] 3.3二级成交表现 - The decline of the ultra - long credit bond index was greater than that of other mainstream bond varieties. From September 29 to 30, 2025, the index prices of medium - short - term credit bonds and bank sub - debt showed signs of stabilization, but the ultra - long credit bond index continued to lead the decline. The index of AA + credit bonds with a term of over 10 years decreased by 0.24% week - on - week [4][21] - The liquidity of ultra - long credit bonds was under pressure. In two trading days of the week, the total number of transactions of general credit bonds with a term of over 7 years was 62, indicating a weakening trend. The yield and spread of ultra - long credit bonds both increased, and the spread between general credit bonds with a term of over 10 years and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 50bp [4][24] - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. The TKN ratio of varieties with a term of over 10 years was at a low level, and the deviation of high - valuation transactions was much higher than that of bonds with a term of less than 10 years [4][28] - In terms of investor structure, funds continued to sell ultra - long credit bonds. Concerns about duration risk and liquidity flaws affected the allocation decisions of trading desks. The support from insurance and wealth - management institutions was limited, and the adjustment trend of ultra - long credit bonds was difficult to reverse in the short term [4][32] - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra - long credit bonds of each term and treasury bonds of similar terms reached a 24 - year high this week, and the spread of varieties around the 10 - year term reached a new high for the year [34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q3, the bond market was mainly affected by anti - involution policies, the stock market, and new fund redemption rules, showing a continuous upward trend. The adjustment in Q3 was characterized by more long - end adjustments, fewer short - end adjustments, fewer low - grade credit adjustments, slightly more high - grade credit adjustments, more adjustments in secondary and perpetual bonds, and fewer adjustments in general credit bonds. In terms of investment returns, credit bonds with a maturity of 2 years or less performed well, while those with a maturity of 3 years or more mostly had negative returns [2]. - Currently, the interest rate may have fully priced in policy and fundamental disturbances. The pattern of weak fundamentals and weak financing demand remains unchanged, and the further upward space of the bond market may be limited [3]. - Historically, the bond market often declines in Q4, and credit spreads usually fluctuate. This year, due to weak bond fund returns and the importance of Q4 performance for the whole - year product performance, market gaming will be more intense, increasing market volatility. For credit bonds in Q4, it is still recommended to focus on coupons, be cautious about duration, and conduct periodic gaming [4][5]. - For different bond varieties, 2 - year short - term bonds are still a solid base and may perform well in the short - term after the holiday. Trading opportunities for secondary and perpetual bonds have emerged again, requiring quick entry and exit in the short - term, and depending on interest rate trends in the long - term. Institutions with unstable liability ends should be cautious about ultra - long - term credit bonds, but their trading volume has increased and shareholding banks have net - bought, indicating a recovery in allocation value, and trading strategies can be tried cautiously [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.1 How was the performance in Q3? - The bond market was affected by anti - involution policies, the stock market, and new fund redemption rules, showing a continuous upward trend. In July, anti - involution policies were further implemented, and the bond market rose significantly; in August, the stock market rose strongly, suppressing bond market sentiment; in September, new fund redemption rules were introduced, and various news such as good industrial enterprise profits in August, progress in Sino - US negotiations, and the cancellation of fund tax exemption impacted the market [13]. - The Q3 adjustment showed characteristics of more long - end adjustments, fewer short - end adjustments, fewer low - grade credit adjustments, slightly more high - grade credit adjustments, more adjustments in secondary and perpetual bonds, and fewer adjustments in general credit bonds [15]. - In terms of investment returns, 2 - year and shorter - term credit bonds performed well with positive returns, while bonds with a maturity of 3 years or more had poor investment returns, and the longer the maturity, the worse the performance. For example, the investment return of the 30 - year treasury bond in Q3 was only - 7.818% [19]. 1.2 Will the downward trend continue? - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits was 20.4%, mainly driven by industries such as power, heat production and supply, and metal smelting and processing. However, the sustainability of the profit recovery is limited due to factors such as the continuous decline in futures prices and weak social demand. The growth rates of both social financing and core social financing are declining, and the further upward space of the social financing growth rate is limited [21]. - Currently, the market interest rate has fully reflected the marginal changes in fundamentals and inflation. Considering the term spread of interest - rate bonds and the comparison between long - term interest rates and certificates of deposit, the further upward space of interest rates is limited, and there may be a downward trend at the end of the year [22][31]. 1.3 How to view credit spreads? - If interest rates do not rise further, credit spreads will likely fluctuate. Historically, credit spreads in Q4 mostly fluctuate. If the capital interest rate can remain stable, the pricing logic system of capital - certificates of deposit - credit will be more stable. Currently, the comparison between medium - term notes and certificates of deposit has risen significantly but is expected to fall back, and the term spread of credit bonds has reached a relatively high level in the past two years and is expected to have limited further upward space [35][40]. 1.4 How to understand the seasonality of the bond market and institutional psychology? - The bond market tends to decline in Q4. In the past 9 years from 2016 to now, interest - rate bonds rose only in 2016, 2017, and 2022, and declined in other years. Credit bonds generally perform worse than interest - rate bonds of the same maturity in Q4. This year, due to the poor performance of medium - and long - term bond funds, market gaming in Q4 will be more intense, increasing market volatility. Products with good performance may focus on controlling drawdowns, while those under performance pressure may more aggressively play the long - duration strategy [43][47][49]. 1.5 How to construct a portfolio? - Medium - and short - term credit bonds should still focus on defense. Holding credit bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years until the end of Q4 can withstand an upward range of more than 30bp, and appropriate credit risk exposure can also lead to good coupon performance [52]. - Ultra - long - term credit bonds: Their credit spreads are close to the high point in the past two years, and their trading volume has increased, and shareholding banks have net - bought, indicating that they have allocation value. Currently, the comparison between secondary and perpetual bonds and general credit bonds has risen to a high level, presenting trading opportunities [56][58][59]. 2.1 It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term secondary and perpetual bonds - At the end of September, the comparison between 5 - year secondary and perpetual bonds and medium - term notes rose rapidly. The comparison advantages of 5 - year secondary capital bonds of all grades over 5 - year medium - term notes increased significantly, and the comparisons of AAA, AA +, and AA grades are currently 9.96bp, 9.08bp, and 4.08bp respectively, still at a high level this year. The comparisons of 1 - year secondary bonds of all grades with medium - term notes are all negative [63]. - The comparison between short - end urban investment bonds and medium - term notes has declined significantly, breaking through the low point of the year, and the cost - performance of medium - and low - grade bonds is relatively low, so entry still needs to wait. The comparison between long - end weak - quality urban investment bonds and medium - term notes has increased [65]. 2.2 Focus on high - coupon assets with a maturity of about 2 years - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation of over 2.3% is 38.0%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 24.5%, and that of secondary and perpetual bonds is 33.3%. Bonds with a maturity of about 2 years and a valuation of over 2.3% have good value and are worth attention [67]. - For urban investment bonds, long - end bonds can combine coupon and band operations, and short - duration high - coupon varieties can still be participated in. It is recommended to focus on bonds with a maturity of about 2 years issued by companies such as Xi'an High - tech, Henan Aviation Port, and Zhuhai Huafa [68]. - For industrial bonds, among real - estate enterprises, it is recommended to focus on bonds of important local state - owned real - estate enterprises with a maturity of about 2 years, such as Shoukai, Jianfa, and CCCC Real Estate. Among non - real - estate industrial entities, focus on bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years issued by enterprises such as Jizhong Energy and AVIC Industry Finance, and bonds with a maturity of about 2 years issued by enterprises such as HBIS and Yunnan Investment [72]. 3.1 How was the market performance? - On September 29 - 30, credit bonds generally recovered, and spreads generally widened. Credit bond yields declined slightly, with short - end secondary and perpetual bonds performing more significantly, while 10Y secondary and perpetual bonds continued to rise. Credit spreads widened overall, and the spreads of secondary and perpetual bonds showed a differentiated trend, with short - end spreads declining and long - end spreads widening [74].

Group 1 - The report highlights a recovery in the over-sold perpetual bonds (二永) after a significant reduction in holdings the previous week, with a slight easing of selling pressure observed [1][9][15] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is mixed, with short-term credit showing resilience, while long-term credit continues to decline, leading to a steepening of the yield curve [1][8][15] - The report notes that funds are in a process of reducing duration, particularly cautious towards long and ultra-long credit, with a cumulative reduction of over 50% in long credit since late July [1][15] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that in the last week before holidays, the scale of wealth management products typically declines significantly, with a drop of over 800 billion yuan noted since 2022, and over 900 billion yuan in 2024 due to equity market influences [2][23][32] - The report states that the credit spread has fluctuated around the holiday periods, with a tendency to compress in the first week after the holiday [2][32] Group 3 - The report recommends a focus on coupon strategies for credit bonds, suggesting that avoiding significant exposure to credit varieties is prudent due to potential market disturbances [3][38] - Specific recommendations include selecting short-term coupon assets, particularly those with yields above 2%, and considering trading opportunities in 3-4 year high-grade perpetual bonds, which currently yield 1-3 basis points higher than benchmark bonds [3][38] - Caution is advised for ultra-long credit, with suggestions to reduce holdings as the trading profit potential appears limited [3][38]