[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 债券研究报告 信用：控制久期，静候时机 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 在经历了前期持续的下行之后，债市在本周迎来调整，利率债整体上行， 带动信用债收益率上行。分品种来看，二永债上行幅度高于普信债，部 分低等级的票息信用债收益率甚至进一步下行。分期限来看，5 年以上 的超长信用债收益率上行幅度高于中短期信用债。从信用利差来看，二 永债利差上行，普信债利差多被动压降。 如何理解近期二永债走势？ 2025 年下半年以来，二永债相比普信债经历了持续走弱-相当-持续走强 的过程。我们将 2025H2 走弱的原因归结为 4 点：金融债增值税加税， 公募基金赎回新增导致市场担忧情绪升温，摊余成本债基只能买普信 债，保险公司全面实施新会计准则带来的调仓诉求。 进入 2026 年以后，多数不利因素均成为历史，摊余成本债基影响难言 消退，但结合三方数据来看，受益于股市的良好表现，固收+基金申购 量增长明显，带来了二永债的额外买盘；且前期债市下行，市场情绪较 好，二永债也相对受益。 利差低位，后市如何展望？ 近期，随着前期债市持续下行，信用债收益率利差同步下行，目前信用 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market strengthened overall driven by risk - aversion sentiment. The yield of ultra - long credit bonds declined slightly, and the number of ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 388. The new issuance of ultra - long credit bonds saw increased subscription sentiment, but the supply volume shrank to a relatively low level in the past two years. Ultra - long bonds led the bond market rally, but the trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. In the short term, the pre - holiday asset shortage logic continues, and the continuous opening of amortized cost method bond funds will provide incremental funds. However, after the holiday, the extremely low pricing of ultra - long bonds is relatively fragile, and factors such as the recovery of the stock market, the increase in government bond supply, and unexpected policies may cause price fluctuations of ultra - long credit bonds [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - This week (from February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026), the bond market strengthened overall driven by risk - aversion sentiment, and the yield of ultra - long credit bonds showed a slight downward trend. Compared with last week, the number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 388 [2][13] 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds increased this week. The total supply of new ultra - long credit bonds was 3.1 billion, and the supply volume shrank to a relatively low level in the past two years. The interest rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds continued to decline to 2.58%, and the interest rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds remained around 2.5%. Driven by the correction of the equity market and the central bank's clear intention to protect liquidity before the Spring Festival, institutional participation in subscribing for new ultra - long credit bonds has strengthened [3][22] 3.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - Ultra - long bonds led the bond market rally. This week, the bond market sentiment continued to recover. Treasury bonds with a term of over 10 years performed well, with the full - price index rising nearly 0.5% weekly. The prices of ultra - long credit bonds also increased marginally. The full - price indices of AA+ credit bonds with terms of 7 - 10 years and over 10 years increased by 0.04% and 0.17% respectively compared with the previous week, outperforming medium - short - term credit bonds and secondary capital bonds [4][30] - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. Although long - term bonds led the rally this week, in terms of liquidity, the number of transactions of general credit bonds with a term of over 7 years slightly increased to 275, and the activity did not improve significantly. Investors were concerned about chasing up ultra - long credit bonds due to insufficient spread protection (the spread between 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds was only 13bp) and potential supply pressure [4][33] - This week, ultra - long credit bonds were mostly traded at a lower valuation. However, in terms of buying willingness, the proportion of TKN for varieties over 10 years decreased significantly, indicating limited enthusiasm for chasing long - term bonds in the market [4][39] - In terms of investor structure, the allocation sentiment of trading desks such as public funds towards ultra - long credit bonds became more cautious, and the net buying volume decreased month - on - month. The buying power of insurance and other funds for long - duration assets also weakened temporarily. Overall, ultra - long credit bonds lacked continuous and sufficient buying support [4][44] - From a more microscopic perspective, due to the faster decline in long - term treasury bond interest rates, the spread between active ultra - long credit bonds and treasury bonds of similar terms widened passively this week. Looking ahead, the pre - holiday asset shortage logic continues, and the continuous opening of amortized cost method bond funds will provide incremental funds for corresponding term varieties. However, looking after the holiday, the extremely low pricing of current ultra - long bonds is relatively fragile, and factors such as the recovery of the stock market, the increase in government bond supply, and unexpected policies may cause price fluctuations of ultra - long credit bonds [5][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw effect has generally strengthened since 2025, but there are periods of weakening. The restoration of the stock - bond seesaw effect requires the continuous strengthening of the pricing factors of stocks or bonds. The market trends of the stock and bond markets have their own dominant factors, and the stock - bond seesaw is not the only pricing factor for bonds [3][43][46]. - The bond market strategy is to hold bonds during the holiday and appropriately increase the account's income elasticity. The report is optimistic about the future market and suggests starting to prepare for the whole - year trading market, shifting from a configuration - oriented to a trading - oriented approach [48][52]. - In the first week of February, the bond market strengthened with oscillations due to the weakening of the equity market and the central bank's support. The 30 - 10y spread of treasury bonds has compression potential, and there are opportunities in long - term credit bonds [7][72][77]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock - Bond Seesaw "Failure" Re - discussion - **Overall Strengthening of the Stock - Bond Seesaw Effect in 2025**: The strengthening is mainly due to the significant boost in market risk appetite by the strong performance of the equity market and the significant widening of the stock - bond price ratio. For example, from September 2024 to October 2025, the share of open - ended bond funds decreased by 3.18%, while that of open - ended stock funds increased by 22.92%. As of February 2026, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.67 trillion yuan [10][14][15]. - **Weakening of the Stock - Bond Seesaw Effect in Some Windows**: There are two situations: stock - bond co - rising and stock - bond co - falling. Stock - bond co - rising occurs when the bond market has clear bullish factors (mostly related to easing expectations), and the yield is in a downward channel. Stock - bond co - falling is mostly related to the redemption of "fixed - income +" products. For example, in November 2025 and February 2026, the redemption of "fixed - income +" products led to an increase in bond yields [22][32]. - **End of the Stock - Bond Seesaw "Failure"**: The restoration of the stock - bond seesaw effect is driven by different factors, such as the "anti - involution" logic in July 2025 leading to the bond market following the adjustment, and the early "spring rally" in the equity market and the cooling of the bond market's easing expectations in late December 2025 - early January 2026 [41]. - **Summary**: The "failure" of the stock - bond seesaw is more common after the bond market's cost - performance returns. To restore the seesaw effect, the pricing factors of stocks or bonds need to be continuously strengthened. The subsequent trend of the "failure" during the "fixed - income +" redemption stage after the stock market decline needs to be observed [43][46]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy - **Under - expected Bond Market Gains after the Decline in Risk Appetite**: The bond market gains were under - expected due to the redemption of "fixed - income +" funds and the lack of a clear trading theme in the short - term bond market [48]. - **Optimistic Outlook for the Future Market**: The central bank's pre - holiday capital injection is relatively active, and the capital fluctuation pressure is controllable. However, the institutions' cross - holiday capital arrangements are relatively late, and short - term frictions in the last week need attention. The power of allocation - type funds is relatively strong, and the pricing influence of the equity market on bonds is weakened. The bond market yield is still in the cost - performance range [52][61][66]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Continue to layout convex - type varieties, conduct spread mining according to the convex points. Focus on 5y China Development Bank bonds in the short - term, 8y Export - Import Bank of China bonds and 10y local government bonds in the medium - term. Insurance funds can configure long - term local government bonds at high yield fluctuations. It is recommended to hold bonds during the holiday and appropriately increase the account's elasticity, and layout long - term offensive varieties with good liquidity [69][72]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review - **Market Performance**: In the first week of February, the equity market was weak, and the bond market strengthened with oscillations. The 10y treasury bond yield was blocked at 1.80% multiple times, and the 30y treasury bond led the rise, driving the compression of the 30 - 10y spread. The 1y treasury bond active bond yield rose 2BP to 1.3100%, the 10y treasury bond active bond yield fell 0.8BP to 1.8020%, and the 30y treasury bond yield fell 3.45BP to 2.2255% [7]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank's net withdrawal of funds was 656 billion yuan this week, and the funding situation was generally loose. The 1y inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance price of national joint - stock banks fell to 1.58%, and the weighted price of DR007 fell to 1.4613% [8]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of policy - financial bonds decreased, while the net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [92]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds both narrowed. The short - end yields of treasury bonds rose 2.08BP, and the long - end yields fell 0.1BP. The short - end yields of China Development Bank bonds fell 1.32BP, and the long - end yields fell 2.2BP [89].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current rally in ultra - long credit bonds is a sentiment - driven "technical rebound." The sustainability of this rally largely depends on the performance of the interest - rate bond market. Given the insufficient conditions for a trend - based upward movement, such as local bond supply pressure, weak core buying power, and limited room for credit spread compression, it is recommended to adopt a trading - range strategy. Investors should closely monitor marginal changes in central bank monetary policy signals and stock market performance and set timely profit - taking targets. [5][45] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long - end bonds led the market recovery. During the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, the bond market rebounded under the policy expectation of "room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and the large - scale MLF injection by the central bank. Yields of various bond varieties mostly declined, and ultra - long credit bonds strengthened. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 357 compared to the previous week. [2][13] 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long urban investment bonds increased. The total supply of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 10.27 billion, with a slight increase. The issuance rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds dropped to around 2.6%, while the overall rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds increased due to the relatively high coupon of Yangzhou Jiankong's new bond. Despite the hot secondary - market trading of ultra - long bonds and the central bank's strong intention to support the liquidity, the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long industrial bonds declined, and only the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long urban investment bonds improved. [3][22] 3.3 Secondary Trading Performance - Ultra - long credit bond indices followed the upward trend. The ultra - long Treasury bonds performed strongly this week. Due to the anxiety of investors who missed the opportunity, they chased other long - duration bond varieties passively, leading to a short - squeeze situation in ultra - long credit bonds. Compared with the previous week, the ChinaBond full - price indices of AA+ credit bonds with maturities of 7 - 10 years and over 10 years increased by 0.29% and 0.35% respectively, outperforming long - end secondary bonds and medium - to - short - term credit bonds. [4][30] - The trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds improved. The average trading yield of over - 10 - year general - credit bonds declined significantly. The yields of over - 10 - year urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 12bp and 7bp respectively compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the trading volume also increased. The number of trading transactions of ultra - long general - credit bonds rebounded to 390, and the weekly trading volume of 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds exceeded 200 again. [4][32] - The TKN ratio of 7 - 10 - year general - credit bonds rebounded to 74%. The trading direction in the past two weeks shifted to low - valuation transactions, indicating a significant recovery in the sentiment of going long on long - term bonds. [4] - In terms of investor structure, public funds and wealth management products remained cautious about long - duration and illiquid bond varieties. Funds only slightly increased their holdings of 7 - 10 - year bonds. Insurance companies and other institutions are the main buyers of ultra - long non - financial credit bonds, but due to the expected slowdown in premium income growth and the positive outlook for the stock market, the incremental demand for bond investment from insurance funds may weaken, and their role as the "stabilizer" of ultra - long bonds is being challenged. [4][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week from January 5 - 9, 2026, the ultra - long credit bonds showed a downward trend. Affected by multiple factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect, the withdrawal of impulsive funds, and the supply pressure of long - term bonds, the yields of ultra - long credit bonds generally increased. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with yields above 2.8% increased to 174 [2][13]. - The supply of ultra - long industrial bonds dropped to a low point. This week, the total supply of new ultra - long credit bonds was 5.03 billion, with issuers highly concentrated in urban investment platforms. The interest rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds rose to around 3%, but the subscription enthusiasm remained low [3][22]. - The ultra - long credit bond index continued to decline. The sharp rise of the stock market this week impacted the bond market pricing. Most medium - and long - term general credit bond full - price index prices fell, with the price of AA + credit bonds over 10 years dropping by 0.05%. However, the trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds rebounded, and the average trading yield of general credit bonds over 10 years rose above 2.65%. After the New Year, the number of trading transactions of ultra - long credit bonds rebounded to over 350 [4][29][31]. - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between 7 - 10 - year active ultra - long credit bonds and government bonds of similar maturities was 58bp this week, with good coupon value. In late January, the opening of amortized - cost bond funds may bring local benefits to the ultra - long credit bond market [5][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bonds declined. Affected by multiple factors, the yields of ultra - long credit bonds generally increased, and the number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with yields above 2.8% increased to 174 compared with last week [2][13]. 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of ultra - long industrial bonds dropped to a low point. This week, the total supply of new ultra - long credit bonds was 5.03 billion, with issuers highly concentrated in urban investment platforms [3][22]. - In terms of issuance interest rates, in the context of overall bond market fluctuations and fragile investor sentiment, the market demanded a higher risk premium for ultra - long credit bonds. The interest rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds rose to around 3% this week. Despite the continuous increase in coupon rates, the subscription enthusiasm for ultra - long urban investment bonds remained low, and market concerns about the uncertainty of ultra - long urban investment bonds with maturities spanning the debt - resolution node intensified [3][22]. 3.3 Secondary Trading Performance - The ultra - long credit bond index continued to decline. The sharp rise of the stock market this week impacted the bond market pricing. Most medium - and long - term general credit bond full - price index prices fell, with the price of AA + credit bonds over 10 years dropping by 0.05% [4][29]. - The trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds rebounded. The supply pressure of government bonds and the warming of stock market sentiment continuously disturbed long - term interest rates. The secondary - market trading yield of ultra - long credit bonds continued to fluctuate. The average trading yield of general credit bonds over 10 years rose above 2.65%. After the New Year, the number of trading transactions of ultra - long credit bonds rebounded to over 350, partly driven by the market pattern of "credit is better than interest rates" this week. Due to the overcrowded trading of short - and medium - term credit products, some asset allocations shifted to the long - end [4][31]. - Corresponding to the secondary - market trading performance, the TKN ratio of general credit bonds over 10 years rebounded to 60%. The certain high coupon attracted funds to flow from more volatile long - term interest - rate bonds to credit bonds [4][36]. - In terms of investor structure, wealth - management funds have the motivation to extend the duration to increase returns, but their behavior is constrained by net - value fluctuations and tends to be cautious during the interest - rate increase period. Public funds with stronger trading attributes have recently shown a continuous attitude of reducing or holding off on long - duration credit bonds. Traditional allocation players such as insurance companies have承接, but the intensity has weakened, and they may reserve more positions for newly issued local government bonds [4][41].

Group 1 - The bond market experienced significant volatility throughout 2025, with a notable concentration of investor positions in 1 to 3-year interest-bearing assets as a defensive strategy against net value uncertainty [2][10][11] - In December, the yield on 30-year government bonds reached a high of 2.2925%, reflecting the market's fragile sentiment and the impact of year-end assessments [10][11] - The introduction of new regulations regarding redemption fees for bond funds provided some relief to the anxious bond market, potentially reshaping investment strategies going into 2026 [10][11] Group 2 - The regulatory environment has shifted positively, with the new redemption fee rules easing previous constraints, which may lead to a recovery in the bond market [3][27] - The pricing of 5-year bank subordinated bonds is expected to see a valuation recovery of 5 to 10 basis points, with new pricing logic anticipated to return to the range of 2.1% to 2.15% [4][43] - The high yields on long-term credit bonds are influenced not only by the new redemption regulations but also by inherent liquidity issues, which may limit trading activity [3][38] Group 3 - The market has shifted focus from seeking excess returns to strictly controlling drawdowns, as evidenced by the significant trading volume in medium-term municipal bonds [11][22] - Fund managers have been the primary drivers of mid-term bond allocations, with net purchases reaching a weekly high of 21.2 billion, surpassing the average weekly volume from October to year-end [11][20] - The strategy of investing in 3-year AA+ municipal bonds has proven to be the most effective in December, highlighting the trend towards medium-term securities [22][23]

Report Summary 1. Core View - Due to the narrowing of long - bond spreads to the lowest level since 2024, institutional investors have different views on the allocation of ultra - long credit bonds. With insufficient spread protection and uncertainty about the inflection point, if there are floating profits in ultra - long credit bonds, it is recommended to focus on the profit - taking strategy in the short term [5]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bond yields have marginally adjusted back. Due to the compression of long - bond spreads to the lowest level since 2024, institutional investors' attitudes towards the allocation of ultra - long credit bonds have diverged, and profit - taking behavior has led to a slight adjustment in yields. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% has increased to 299 [2][12]. 2.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of ultra - long credit bonds has reached the bottom. This week, the total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds was 2.3 billion, and only two urban investment entities, Beijing Infrastructure Investment and Anhui Investment Group, issued long - term bonds with a term of 7 years or more (preferred exercise). Although the trading sentiment in the cash bond market has weakened, investors' enthusiasm for participating in the primary market allocation of ultra - long urban investment bonds remains high [3][21]. 2.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - The upward trend of the ultra - long credit bond index has significantly slowed down. This week, the general credit bond index above 7 years has slightly increased. The 7 - 10 - year AA+ credit bond index has increased by 0.03%, and the AA+ credit bond index above 10 years has only increased by 0.11%, performing weaker than long - term interest - rate bonds [29]. - The trading volume of ultra - long credit bonds has significantly decreased. After three consecutive weeks of increase, the spread of general credit bonds above 7 years has been compressed to a low level. The spread between 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds has narrowed to 21bp. Concerned about the insufficient protection space of long - term credit spreads, the number of trading transactions of ultra - long general credit bonds has dropped to 315 this week, a decrease of 35.7% compared with the previous week [32]. - The intensity of buying ultra - long credit bonds at a low valuation has weakened significantly compared with the previous two weeks, and some urban investment long - term bond varieties have even shifted to high - valuation transactions. The proportion of TKN transactions in credit bonds above 10 years has dropped to 54.2% [37]. 3. Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating.

Group 1: Market Trends - The peak period for the opening of amortized bond funds is from November 2025 to the first half of 2026, with a total opening scale exceeding 400 billion yuan[12] - In December 2025, the opening scale will reach 107.7 billion yuan, and in March 2026, it will exceed 116 billion yuan, primarily focusing on 3-year and 5-year products[12] - The demand for 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds will continue to be released, maintaining a strong short-term performance[14] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - The proportion of credit bonds in amortized bond funds has increased significantly, reaching 14.9% by the end of Q3 2025, up from 1.8% at the end of 2024[13] - Bank wealth management has replaced bank proprietary trading as the core incremental funding source, with holdings in amortized bond funds rising from 17.1 billion yuan to 93 billion yuan, a growth of over 5 times[13] - 84% of the increased funding from wealth management is directed towards products with a closed period of 3 years or less, reinforcing the demand for short- to medium-term credit bonds[13] Group 3: Market Structure Differentiation - The credit bond market is experiencing structural differentiation, with medium- to high-grade credit bonds benefiting significantly, while certain bonds are excluded from the amortized bond fund allocation due to SPPI testing[14] - Long-term credit bonds are less favored due to maturity mismatches and profit-taking by banks, while policy financial bonds are seeing reduced compression dynamics due to the shift towards credit bonds[14] - The overall market is characterized by a notable divergence in performance among different bond types[14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View This week, the long - term credit bond market showed a positive trend. The yield of ultra - long credit bonds significantly recovered, the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long credit bonds reached a high level, and the long - bond index performed well. However, the sustainability of the ultra - long credit bond market will be affected by factors such as the market's pricing of new redemption fees, the stability of fund liabilities, and the direction of incremental funds [3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - The yield of ultra - long credit bonds significantly recovered. From October 27 to 31, 2025, due to factors such as the switch between stock and bond preferences, the central bank's mention of "resuming open - market treasury bond trading operations", and stable capital interest rates, the yield of ultra - long credit bonds dropped significantly. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.2% - 2.3% increased to 189 compared with last week [3][14]. 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long credit bonds reached a high level. This week, the total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds was 6 billion, with a relatively low supply. The issuance terms were mainly concentrated in 7 - 10 years. Compared with last week, the average coupon rate of industrial bonds over 7 years decreased by nearly 20bp to 2.37%, and the interest rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds also decreased by more than 10bp. Driven by the spot - bond market, the enthusiasm for primary - market allocation of long - term bonds continued to rise, and the indicator reached about the 80th percentile in the past 24 years [4][23]. 3.3 Secondary Trading Performance - Long - bond indices outperformed. This week, long - term bonds led the bond market rally. The weekly increase of the over - 10 - year treasury bond index reached 1.15%. The ultra - long credit bond index performed relatively well among mainstream credit assets, with the 7 - 10 - year AA+ credit bond index rising 0.74% [5][30]. - The number of ultra - long credit bond transactions did not reach the level from June to July. Although the ultra - long credit bonds had a good rally this week, and the number of transactions of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds reached a new high since August (346 transactions), the total number of transactions of general credit bonds over 7 years was still lower than the average weekly reading from June to July. Moreover, compared with ultra - long general credit bonds, the improvement in the allocation preference for ultra - long secondary capital bonds of large banks was relatively greater, and investors paid more attention to the liquidity of bond varieties when choosing long - term bonds [5][33]. - In line with the secondary - market trading performance, the spread of short - and medium - term credit bonds within 3 years returned to the lowest point of the year. To achieve excess returns, ultra - long credit bonds became the target for extending duration. This week, the extent of transactions below the valuation of this variety widened significantly, and the proportion of TKN transactions in the 7 - 10 - year period approached 80% [5][37]. - In terms of investor structure, funds showed a preference for buying ultra - long credit bonds for the first time since August, with a single - week increase of 1.4 billion in the 7 - 10 - year variety. In the past two weeks, the behavior of insurance and other product categories in holding ultra - long credit bonds was stable, possibly considering reserving assets in advance for next year [5][44].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The credit bond market is currently experiencing a cautious sentiment, with limited compression in credit bond yield spreads, indicating that market participants are still pricing in credit risks [1][2] - The team holds a bearish outlook on future interest rate trends, although recent economic and financial data, including Q3 GDP figures, have had a limited impact on the bond market's trajectory [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - Financial institutions are facing increasing pressure on credit supply, as evidenced by the rising loan-to-deposit ratio, which has increased from approximately 43.3 trillion yuan in January to nearly 60 trillion yuan in September [3] - Insurance companies showed weak performance in credit bond purchases earlier this year, particularly in the first half, but there was a recovery in net buying during Q3. Overall, insurance companies did not reduce their total bond purchases, although they bought fewer government and policy bank bonds while increasing local government bond purchases [4] - The current spread between perpetual bonds and other bonds has narrowed to around 5 basis points. If overall interest rates continue to decline, perpetual bonds may still present trading opportunities [5] Investment Recommendations - For ultra-long credit bonds, it is recommended to participate with a focus on allocation, as their coupon yields remain attractive. It is expected that yields will decline in the future, presenting a favorable risk-reward scenario [5] - In Q4, short-term credit bonds with maturities of around two years are expected to perform normally, with yields likely to decrease slightly as overall interest rates decline. However, the decline in yields for longer maturities, such as 10 or 30 years, is expected to be limited [6] - The investment strategy for Q4 should prioritize coupon income, while also allowing for participation in ultra-long duration strategies, but with controlled trading volumes to ensure stability and avoid excessive volatility [6] Additional Important Points - The overall bond purchasing behavior of insurance companies has been influenced by the strong performance of the stock market, which has alleviated some of the asset scarcity issues faced by these institutions [4] - The credit bond market has entered a period of fluctuation, with recent yield movements reflecting a recovery from previous increases, although the overall compression in yield spreads remains modest [2]