存量市场特征 超长信用债收益回撤。本周（2025.8.11-2025.8.15，下同）市场风险偏好再度切换，债市行情反转，超长信用债亦被 波及。与上周相比，存量超长信用债收益率出现回撤，2.2%-2.3%收益率的超长信用债只数明显增长。 一级发行情况 超长信用新债认购续升。本周超长信用新债发行规模合计 159.7 亿，供给量基本持平上周。在新债发行利率方面，本 周超长城投新债发行利率均值上行至 2.6%，超长产业新债票面则在 2.3%附近徘徊。在近期波动率偏高的债市环境中， 超长信用新债一级定价与现券市场略有偏离，这也或是近两周该品种新债认购热度持续上升的原因。 二级成交表现 长债指数普跌。债市又一轮急跌，本周 10 年以上国债指数跌幅高达 1.64%，10 年以上 AA+信用债指数跌幅虽小于利率 长债，但绝对值也超过 0.5%。 超长信用债成交情绪萎靡。在信用债资产中，超长信用债跌势难控，品种流动性明显弱化，本周 10 年以上产业债成 交笔数已下降至不足 40 笔，最为活跃的 7-10 年产业债，成交量相比 7 月中旬也缩减近半。成交收益方面，7-10 年信 用长债收益回调幅度大于 6bp，10 年以上普信 ...

存量市场特征 超长信用债收益窄幅波动。本周（2025.8.4-2025.8.8，下同）影响债券定价信息依旧纷杂，债市情绪偏于谨慎。与上 周相比，存量超长信用债收益率小幅下行，收益率中枢维持在 2.1%-2.3%区间。 一级发行情况 超长产业新债认购情绪回弹。本周超长信用新债发行规模合计 197 亿，供给量虽有一定回升，但其占当周信用债总发 行规模的比例读数还在下滑。在新债发行利率方面，本周超长产业新债发行利率均值继续上行，现已升至 2.3%以上。 或是出于超长产业债票面利率的回升，叠加月初资金利率低位徘徊，投资者参超长信用债认购力度又有强化。 二级成交表现 超长信用债指数定价基本持平上周。债市前瞻难度加大的背景下，超长信用债表现不及主流债券资产，本周 10 年以 上国债、3-5 年中票、3-5 年国股二级债指数走势均好于超长信用债指数。 超长信用债成交笔数显著回落。7 月以来超长信用债浮盈缺乏，在预期不稳的债市中，难控回撤的弊病致使该品种交 易需求显著减弱，本周 7 年及以上城投债与产业债合计成交笔数从上周的 515 笔下降至 389 笔。成交收益方面，最为 活跃的 7-10 年产业债，成交收益率均值边际修复 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report This week, due to the strong performance of risk assets such as commodities and stocks, the bond market was significantly impacted, leading to a decline in the performance of ultra - long - term credit bonds. The supply of new ultra - long - term credit bonds increased, while the secondary market trading was weak, and the buying willingness decreased. In the future, attention should be paid to the entry rhythm of incremental funds from insurance and wealth management [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long - term credit bond yields retreated. This week, affected by the strong performance of risk assets, the yields of existing ultra - long - term credit bonds significantly adjusted, and the yield center rose to 2.1% - 2.3% [2][13]. 2. Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long - term credit bonds increased. This week, the total issuance scale of new ultra - long - term credit bonds was 36.41 billion, significantly higher than that in the first three weeks of July. Some issuers may have issued bonds to reduce financing costs when long - term bond interest rates were relatively low [3][22]. - The average coupon rate of new ultra - long - term industrial bonds rose and remained at a relatively low level of 18.1% since 2024 [3][22]. - The subscription enthusiasm in the primary market declined. Due to the improvement of investors' risk appetite, the subscription enthusiasm for ultra - long - term credit bonds in the primary market dropped significantly [3][22]. 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The ultra - long - term credit bond index dropped sharply. This week, the weekly declines of the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year AA + credit bond indexes reached - 0.73% and 1.31% respectively, erasing the gains in July [4][31]. - The number of long - term bond transactions decreased. Except for 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds, the number of transactions of long - term bonds with other maturities decreased to some extent. However, the trading volume of long - term secondary capital bonds increased significantly, possibly due to the early position - swapping of some institutional investors [4][34]. - The buying willingness weakened. Against the background of the sharp decline in the bond market, the buying willingness for ultra - long - term credit bonds significantly weakened, and the TKN transaction ratio of over - 10 - year credit bonds dropped to 46.5% [4][38]. - High - valuation transactions were dominant. This week, the selling pressure on ultra - long - term credit bonds was significant, mainly in the form of high - valuation transactions, with the valuation deviation of 10 - 20 - year industrial bonds being relatively high [4][38]. - Fund selling increased. Since last week, due to concerns about insufficient spread protection for ultra - long - term credit bonds, funds have significantly adjusted their positions. This week, the net buying ratio of 7 - 30 - year bonds continued to decline, and the total scale of funds selling over - 7 - year ultra - long - term general credit bonds reached 5.77 billion [4][42]. - The spread between active ultra - long - term credit bonds and Treasury bonds widened. From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra - long - term credit bonds and Treasury bonds of similar maturities widened this week, but the spread of active ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of 20 years and above was still at a relatively low level [5][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus is shifting towards medium - quality entities within industries such as steel, coal, real estate, local state - owned construction enterprises, and non - bank finance. In Q3, it is advisable to explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. For institutions with high risk tolerance, there are opportunities to compress the liquidity premium of some high - quality private enterprises. For industries with low overall risks like public utilities, regular allocation is sufficient [5]. - For ultra - long credit bonds, it is time to gradually take profits, shorten the duration for defense, and switch to more liquid varieties, waiting for the next opportunity to attack [6]. - In Q3, different industries present various investment opportunities and risks. For example, the construction industry may see marginal improvement in prosperity but still face pressure; the steel industry has strong expectations of marginal improvement in fundamentals; the coal industry needs to select high - quality entities for exploration; the real estate industry has high - valued state - owned enterprises with certain investment potential; the non - ferrous metal industry has a differentiated prosperity; and the cement industry has limited opportunities [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Ultra - long Credit Bond Strategy: Gradually Take Profits and Wait for Subsequent Attack Opportunities 3.1.1 Primary Issuance - In Q2, the supply of ultra - long credit bonds increased month - on - month, with large industrial central state - owned enterprises remaining the main financing force. The total issuance in H1 was 539.8 billion yuan, and Q2 increased by 63% month - on - month, accounting for 9.27% of all credit bonds, but still lower than Q3 last year. The issuers were mainly industrial, accounting for about 72%, and large central state - owned enterprises such as State Grid had large issuance volumes [16]. - Since early July, the bond market has adjusted, and the supply of ultra - long credit bonds may be frustrated in the short term, and its subsequent recovery remains to be observed [18]. 3.1.2 Yield Analysis - To obtain significant excess returns from extending the credit duration, either interest rate decline or spread compression must occur, and the amplitude should be large enough [31]. - The trigger for the sharp decline of ultra - long credit bonds in recent years is mostly the reversal of institutional behavior. Currently, although it is predicted that there will be a double - bull market for stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, the short - term risk cannot be ignored due to the impact of the "stock - bond seesaw" on market sentiment [34]. - In terms of capital gains, the odds of ultra - long credit bonds are decreasing; the one - two - level arbitrage space is difficult to find; and the coupon protection ability is weak, making it difficult to increase the winning rate. Therefore, it is recommended to gradually take profits and switch to more liquid varieties such as 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [37]. 3.1.3 Strategy - For most institutions, it is time to gradually take profits from ultra - long credit bonds. The reasons include the difficulty in continuing the excess returns in the future, the fragility of the market's optimistic sentiment, the lack of obvious coupon advantages and protection ability, and the relatively small advantage compared with 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [46][51]. 3.2 Q3 Industrial Bond Strategy: Explore Industry Allocation Opportunities under "Anti - involution" 3.2.1 Construction - In 2025, the construction industry has been under pressure since the beginning of the year, and the downward trend in prosperity continued into Q2. In Q3, although factors such as accelerated capital arrival, the "anti - involution" initiative, and overseas growth are expected to bring marginal improvement in prosperity, the industry will still be under pressure overall, and industry concentration may further increase, benefiting leading central state - owned enterprises [48][52]. - In terms of bond valuation, the industry's valuation declined steadily in the second quarter. The spread of central state - owned enterprises narrowed, and some local state - owned enterprises had a large decline in valuation, but the valuation of some enterprises was still unstable [55]. - The strategy is to mainly explore subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises and selectively allocate local state - owned enterprises. For institutions with low risk tolerance, continue to explore high - valued subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises or leading local state - owned enterprises; for institutions that can accept a certain degree of credit quality downgrade, local state - owned enterprises provide greater return space, but it is not recommended to over - explore them [56]. 3.2.2 Steel - In Q2, steel prices fluctuated downward, but rose rapidly in early July under the support of cost and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies [60]. - In terms of fundamentals, supply is cautiously released, demand recovery in Q2 was less than expected, and total inventory is expected to further decline. In the short term, steel prices and steel enterprise profits are expected to be strong, but there is a risk of a callback [61][65][67]. - Medium - quality entities have strong motivation to compress spreads, and it is expected that the spreads of medium - grade mainstream entities such as HBIS and Shandong Steel will continue to compress. They can be appropriately allocated [71]. 3.2.3 Coal - In the second quarter, the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward and then rebounded at the end of the quarter, while the price of coking coal rose briefly in April and then fell, also rebounding at the end of June [74]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply structure is relatively loose, and production inspections may lead to subsequent tightening. The demand for thermal coal is seasonally improving, while the probability of "oversupply" of coking coal is relatively large. Port inventories are continuously being depleted [76][80]. - It is expected that the coal price rebound may continue, with thermal coal being stronger than coking coal. In Q3, exploration still needs to select high - quality entities, and Jinmei Group is still the target of exploration by mainstream institutions [7][80]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - In Q3, the downward pressure on the real estate industry may continue to increase. The real estate sector is currently the highest - valued sector among state - owned enterprises, with a certain thickness of coupon and potential for exploration. Although the market is concerned about the emotional fluctuations brought about by Vanke's support willingness, the fluctuations are relatively controllable under the attraction of absolute returns, and it has cost - effectiveness [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - In the non - ferrous metals industry, for gold, the market is mainly speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the long - term upward trend of the central price remains unchanged; for copper, the mining end is generally tight but with marginal increments, and the demand side is weak; for aluminum, the inventory has been depleted more than expected, and the demand - side risk is small, and the profit space of electrolytic aluminum plants is expected to continue [7]. - In terms of strategy, the valuations of high - quality but over - valued entities such as Nanshan Group, Hongqiao New Materials, and Luoyang Aluminum Industry are expected to continue to decline, while there are few opportunities for other entities [7]. 3.2.6 Cement - In Q2, cement prices almost declined unilaterally, and manufacturers faced the risk of losses. Attention should be paid to the implementation of over - production governance under "anti - involution." Currently, except for Hongshi, the spreads of the cement sector are basically compressed within 30bp, and it is difficult to obtain excess returns, so the overall opportunities in the cement sector are limited [7]. 3.2.7 Strategy - In Q3, explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. The current spread of entities with a spread of 40 - 50bp is about 20bp different from that of leading entities, and it is expected that the spread will be compressed in Q3 [5]. 3.3 Q2 Industrial Bond Market Review: Convergent Trends and Deviation from Fundamentals 3.3.1 Issuance and Financing Situation - In Q2, industrial bonds had a large net inflow of 732.1 billion yuan, and public utilities led in net financing [14]. 3.3.2 Yield and Spread Trends - After the yield was repaired in Q2, it fluctuated at a low level. The trading logic was that the loose capital tone ran through the entire quarter, and the performance of different industries in the industrial bond market was not significantly differentiated, and the spread trend deviated from fundamentals [9]. 3.3.3 Liquidity - Since Q2, the liquidity of credit bonds has been continuously improving, and the trading heat of ultra - long credit bonds reached its peak in mid - June [14]. 3.3.4 Credit Risk - In Q2, there were 2 entities with substantial bond defaults and 4 domestic entities with rating/ outlook downgrades, but the overall credit risk was controllable [9].

Group 1: Q3 Super Long Credit Bond Strategy - The report suggests gradually taking profits on super long credit bonds and switching to shorter-term, more liquid varieties while waiting for the next investment opportunity [6][10][26] - In Q2, the issuance of super long credit bonds increased significantly, with a total of 539.8 billion yuan, marking a 63% increase from the previous quarter [10][12] - The report indicates that the current market conditions do not support further exploration of super long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains and limited arbitrage opportunities [26][27] Group 2: Q3 Industry Bond Strategy - The strategy focuses on identifying investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" initiative across various industries [6][10] - In the construction sector, while there is a marginal improvement expected due to funding acceleration and the "anti-involution" initiative, the overall industry remains under pressure [6][10] - The steel industry shows strong expectations for marginal improvement, with opportunities for continued compression of spreads among mid-tier players like Hebei Steel and Shandong Steel [6][10] - The coal sector anticipates a rebound in prices, with a focus on major players like Jin Energy, while cash flow improvements may exceed expectations [6][10] - The real estate sector faces increasing downward pressure, but state-owned enterprises still present attractive absolute returns [6][10] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the report highlights a divergence in market conditions, with opportunities for compression in spreads among quality private enterprises [6][10] - The cement industry is under significant pressure, with risks of losses and limited opportunities for excess returns [6][10] - The overall strategy recommends focusing on medium-quality entities across industries, particularly in steel, coal, real estate, and construction, while keeping an eye on the "anti-involution" initiative and the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station [6][10]

Group 1 - The report argues that an increase in the equity market does not necessarily lead to a rise in interest rates, indicating a potential for a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds [5][8][15] - Historical patterns show that both scenarios of rising equity markets with either rising or falling interest rates have occurred, suggesting that the underlying reasons for stock market increases are crucial [9][11] - The current stock market rise is attributed to improved governance expectations and economic transformation, rather than a significant increase in household deposits moving into equities [11][13] Group 2 - The report highlights that the fixed income market is experiencing a high issuance of interest rate bonds, with an expected issuance of 940.8 billion yuan this week, indicating a robust supply environment [16][18] - Recent data shows a significant increase in reverse repos and a net injection of liquidity by the central bank, which has implications for bond market dynamics [23][24] - The report notes that the leverage ratio in the bond market has risen above seasonal averages, reflecting increased trading activity and potential adjustments in investor strategies [13][14]

Group 1 - The report suggests that for most investors, it is time to gradually take profits on ultra-long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains, limited arbitrage opportunities, and weak coupon protection [6][14][18] - The performance of ultra-long credit bonds has been primarily driven by the compression of liquidity premiums in June, but this trend is expected to be difficult to sustain moving forward [7][14] - The report indicates that the current coupon advantage of ultra-long credit bonds is not significant, and their ability to protect against interest rate fluctuations is lacking, leading to a low probability of success for short-term holdings [12][18] Group 2 - The weekly review of credit bonds shows that the issuance volume remained stable, with a slight increase in maturity amounts, resulting in a net inflow of 452 billion yuan, which is a decrease compared to previous weeks [20][22] - The average coupon rates for newly issued AAA and AA+ rated bonds were 1.99% and 2.24%, respectively, indicating a mixed trend in issuance costs [20][21] - The liquidity of credit bonds continues to weaken, with a decrease in turnover rate to 1.76%, reflecting a return to a relatively low level [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investing in ultra - long credit bonds is challenging due to high volatility. Since 2024, their yields have gone through multiple stages including rapid decline, adjustment, and oscillation [11]. - To improve the allocation win - rate, one can measure the cost - effectiveness of extending duration through credit spreads, understand institutional allocation behavior patterns, decide entry based on trading sentiment, and select high - liquidity value entities [4]. - The long - term stable market of ultra - long credit bonds generally requires continuous buying from trading accounts such as funds and wealth management products. Insurance mainly helps stabilize prices during market adjustments [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - Volatility Ultra - Long Credit Bonds - **Yield Fluctuation Stages**: Since 2024, the yields of ultra - long credit bonds have experienced 3 bull markets, 2 adjustments, and 1 oscillation. For example, from January to March 2024, the yields declined slightly at first and then increased due to various events; from April to July 2024, the demand for ultra - long credit bonds increased under institutional under - allocation pressure [11]. - **Volatility and Investment Difficulties**: Although the volatility of ultra - long credit bonds in the second quarter of 2025 was lower than the same period last year, it was still higher than most of 2024 from January to April. The high volatility provides capital gain opportunities but is difficult for band - trading due to liquidity issues [16]. 3.2 How to Improve Allocation Win - Rate 3.2.1 Measure the Cost - Effectiveness of Extending Duration through Credit Spreads - **Credit Spread Channels**: By using the 30 - day average of credit spreads to form upper and lower tracks, when the credit spread touches the upper track, there is a large compression space, and when it touches the lower track, it may rebound. However, this indicator has some limitations and should be combined with other factors [21]. - **Term Spread Channels**: Similar to credit spreads, term spread channels can also be used to predict market trends. But they also have limitations in considering factors such as institutional behavior and policy changes [24]. - **Credit Spread Quantiles**: As of July 4, 2025, the credit spreads of some long - term bonds are at relatively low quantiles, indicating limited further compression space [27]. 3.2.2 Grasp the Laws of Institutional Allocation Behavior - **Insurance**: Ultra - long credit bonds match the duration of insurance products and can alleviate the asset shortage problem. Insurance is a stable buyer, but its buying volume is affected by the supply rhythm of interest - rate bonds and the "good start" seasonal pattern [32]. - **Wealth Management**: Due to bank quarterly assessments and fund repatriation, wealth management scale usually declines at the end of the quarter and rebounds at the beginning. In recent four years, there have been relatively large month - on - month increases in April and July, leading to an increased demand for credit bonds [38]. - **Public Funds**: Ultra - long credit bonds are attractive for their coupon income and duration offensive. Funds tend to extend duration in a bull market but increase selling during market adjustments [42]. - **Credit Bond ETFs**: Since late May, credit bond ETFs have expanded rapidly. By July 4, 2025, the scale of 8 benchmark - making market - making credit bond ETFs had increased to 13.22 billion yuan, which has promoted the bull market of ultra - long credit bonds [45]. 3.2.3 Decide Entry Based on Trading Sentiment - Currently, the sentiment of bond market investors participating in long - term credit bonds is over - heated. The trading deviation of credit bonds over 10 years has approached the levels during the strongest rising periods in 2024. However, the over - crowded market is increasing potential adjustment risks [53]. 3.2.4 Layout High - Liquidity Value Entities - When the ultra - long credit bond market starts, one can focus on the outstanding bonds of entities with large outstanding ultra - long bond scales and ratings of AA+ or above. For example, State Grid, Chengtong Holdings, and Sinochem Group have relatively large outstanding scales [60]. - Further, one can select entities with higher term spreads than the market average, indicating potential for long - term bond interest rate compression [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for ultra - long credit bonds has slowed down, but the index of ultra - long credit bonds has shown stable performance. The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds over 10 years has increased, while the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly cooled. The spread between active ultra - long credit bonds and Treasury bonds of similar maturities continues to narrow. Accounts with stable liability ends need to reasonably control the position of ultra - long credit bonds [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - The market for ultra - long credit bonds has slowed down. Factors such as the slight tightening of cross - quarter funds, the tilt of the stock - bond balance, and the net value fluctuations of credit bond ETFs have disturbed the sentiment of going long on ultra - long credit bonds. The yield distribution of existing ultra - long credit bonds this week is generally the same as last week, and the number of existing ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% remains at 650 [2][13] 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long industrial bonds remains high. The issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week totals 29.5 billion, basically the same as last week, and ultra - long industrial bonds are still the main new addition. However, the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly cooled this week, which is related to the average issuance interest rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds dropping to a new low and the increased volatility of the capital market near the end of the quarter [3][22] 3.3 Secondary Trading Performance - The index of ultra - long credit bonds has shown stable performance. In the latest week, the equity market has strengthened. Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the indexes of mainstream bond varieties have weakened, but the index of credit bonds over 7 years has been relatively stable, with the weekly increase of the AA+ credit bond index over 10 years being 0.18%. - The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds over 10 years has increased. Although the preference for ultra - long credit bonds has been disturbed by the strengthening of equity assets this week, the weekly trading volume of industrial bonds from 7 - 10 years has dropped to 448, while the trading volume of industrial bonds over 10 years has increased to 176, reaching a new high in weekly trading volume since 2024. In terms of trading returns, the average weekly trading return of industrial bonds over 7 years has dropped to a new low, and the spread between 7 - 10 - year varieties and 20 - 30 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to 25BP. - The trading of ultra - long credit bonds is still mainly at a low valuation, and the low - valuation trading margin of industrial bonds from 20 - 30 years is at the forefront. However, the proportion of TKN trades in credit bonds over 7 years has decreased significantly, indicating that investors still have concerns about the sustainability of the market for this variety. - In terms of investor structure, insurance companies and funds have continued to buy ultra - long credit bonds this week, but the intensity of funds chasing long - term credit has slowed down, and the scale of increasing the position of 5 - 10 - year credit bonds this week has dropped to 3.2 billion [4][32][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The ultra - long credit bond market is experiencing an over - heated sentiment. The ultra - long credit bond market has shown strong performance in both the primary and secondary markets, but there are still vulnerabilities in the market due to the extreme behavior of trading - oriented investors [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Ultra - long Credit Sentiment Over - heated 3.1.1 Stock Market Characteristics The ultra - long credit bond market is in an extremely strong situation. The central bank's support for the capital market boosts the bullish sentiment in the bond market. As the yield of coupon assets further declines, the ultra - long credit bonds have strengthened. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% has increased to 656 compared to last week [2][13]. 3.1.2 Primary Issuance Situation The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds continues to heat up. This week, the issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds totaled 31.61 billion, a 153% increase in supply compared to last week. Affected by the re - issued bond "24 Zhonghua 06 (Re - issued)", the average issuance rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly increased compared to last week. Coupled with the hot market for ultra - long bonds in the cash market, the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds continues to rise [3][21]. 3.1.3 Secondary Trading Performance - **Index Performance**: The ultra - long credit bond index leads the market. In the latest week, the ultra - long credit bond index had a leading increase. The weekly increase of the AA+ credit bond index over 10 years was around 0.9%, while the increase of the same - maturity treasury bond index was 0.77% [4][28]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds has exceeded the previous high. This week, the market's enthusiasm for speculating on ultra - long credit bonds has further increased. The weekly trading volume of industrial bonds with a maturity of 7 - 10 years reached 644, far exceeding the weekly average during the previous round of the market in January this year. The total trading volume of credit bonds over 10 years also reached 167, indicating a hot trading sentiment [4][31]. - **Trading Yield**: The weekly average trading yield of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds has dropped to 2.14%, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds has narrowed to 27BP [4]. - **Investor Behavior**: The intensity of low - valuation bond - grabbing for ultra - long credit bonds has significantly increased, and the trading preference for 10 - 20 - year urban investment bonds has also recovered. The proportion of TKN transactions for credit bonds over 7 years has risen to over 80%, reaching around the 90% historical high since 2024 [4][35]. - **Investor Structure**: This week, insurance companies and funds remain the main investors in ultra - long credit bonds. Among them, funds have had a net purchase of ultra - long credit bonds exceeding that of insurance companies in the past two weeks. This week, the scale of funds' increase in 5 - 10 - year credit bonds was more than 7 billion, setting a new high since the first half of the year [41].