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东盟观察丨泰国连续降息支持经济,中马、中柬跨境人民币使用激增
Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock market continues to show a warming trend, with most indices recording gains last week [1] - The Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia rose by 2.05% to 6815.73 points, while the Singapore Straits Index increased by 0.56% to 3845.14 points [1] - Other notable gains include Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index up 2.21% to 1542.49 points, and Thailand's SET Index up 3.45% to 1198.98 points [1] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index led the gains with a 3.15% increase to 36830.69 points [1] Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the growth rates for developed economies in the Asia-Pacific region will be 1.2% and 1.4% for the next two years, while emerging markets are expected to grow at 4.5% and 4.6% [3] - Thailand's central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate from 2.00% to 1.75% to support the economy amid slowing inflation and growth [3][4] - Moody's has downgraded Thailand's economic outlook from stable to negative, citing significant impacts from global trade and economic growth [3] Monetary Policy - Thailand's recent interest rate cuts are seen as a preventive easing measure, reflecting a consensus among Southeast Asian monetary authorities to act proactively rather than waiting for U.S. rate cuts [4] - Experts predict that other Southeast Asian countries, such as Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, may follow suit with monetary policy easing in the second quarter [4] Cross-Border RMB Business - The cross-border RMB business has seen significant growth, with transactions between China and Malaysia reaching 102 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year [6] - The increase in cross-border RMB usage is attributed to deepening monetary sovereignty and industrial trust between China and its trade partners [6] - The RMB is forming a new model of trade dominance within the RCEP framework, enhancing trade efficiency and local asset reserve attributes in the Asia-Pacific region [6]