21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 8月21日至23日，全球央行年会在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话备受关注。 目前货币市场交易员预期，美联储在今年9月降息25个基点的概率达到80%。 会议前夕，投资者观望情绪愈加浓厚，亚太市场涨跌不一。东南亚股市多数下跌。泰国SET指数周跌 0.48%，报1253.39点；越南胡志明指数周涨1.04%，报1647.03点；印尼雅加达综合指数（JKSE）周跌 0.5%，报7858.85点；新加坡海峡指数周涨0.53%，报4253.02点；马来西亚吉隆坡综合指数周涨1.34%， 报1597.47点；菲律宾马尼拉指数周跌0.53%，报6281.58点。 亚太其他主要股指同样下跌，日经225指数周跌1.72%或745.02点，报42633.29点；韩国KOSPI指数周跌 1.76%，报3168.73点；澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数周涨0.32%，报8967.4点。 国际金融论坛学术委员、上海外国语大学金融创新与发展研究中心主任章玉贵向21世纪经济报道记者表 示，上周亚太股市震荡与市场交易主体的观望情绪偏浓存在一定关系，市场交易员押注美联储有极大概 率在9月启动降息。 ...

Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock market continues to show a warming trend, with most indices recording gains last week [1] - The Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia rose by 2.05% to 6815.73 points, while the Singapore Straits Index increased by 0.56% to 3845.14 points [1] - Other notable gains include Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index up 2.21% to 1542.49 points, and Thailand's SET Index up 3.45% to 1198.98 points [1] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index led the gains with a 3.15% increase to 36830.69 points [1] Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the growth rates for developed economies in the Asia-Pacific region will be 1.2% and 1.4% for the next two years, while emerging markets are expected to grow at 4.5% and 4.6% [3] - Thailand's central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate from 2.00% to 1.75% to support the economy amid slowing inflation and growth [3][4] - Moody's has downgraded Thailand's economic outlook from stable to negative, citing significant impacts from global trade and economic growth [3] Monetary Policy - Thailand's recent interest rate cuts are seen as a preventive easing measure, reflecting a consensus among Southeast Asian monetary authorities to act proactively rather than waiting for U.S. rate cuts [4] - Experts predict that other Southeast Asian countries, such as Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, may follow suit with monetary policy easing in the second quarter [4] Cross-Border RMB Business - The cross-border RMB business has seen significant growth, with transactions between China and Malaysia reaching 102 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year [6] - The increase in cross-border RMB usage is attributed to deepening monetary sovereignty and industrial trust between China and its trade partners [6] - The RMB is forming a new model of trade dominance within the RCEP framework, enhancing trade efficiency and local asset reserve attributes in the Asia-Pacific region [6]