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转债周度跟踪20251121:转债抗跌性突出,百元估值逼近40%-20251123
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the convertible bond market approaching the high point at the end of August again, there was an obvious pullback this week. Since the end of August, the convertible bond index has formed a "double top" pattern, and small - cap stocks have pulled back significantly. Compared with the end of August, the anti - decline ability of the convertible bond market in this round is significantly stronger, and the valuation performance is relatively strong. The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation approaches 40%, significantly exceeding the high point at the end of August. This may be related to two factors: Firstly, in this round of the repair market, the prices and valuations of high - priced convertible bonds are significantly weaker, so the high - price area plays a good safety cushion role through reverse valuation support; Secondly, from the perspective of two ETFs, the capital side also shows the characteristic of "reverse operation", and funds flow in reversely during the market correction. In the short term, the convertible bond valuation has reached the highest point this year, with weak valuation protection and being more dependent on the performance of the underlying stocks. Considering the limited downside space of the equity market and the under - allocation of convertible bond positions, there are still many trading opportunities in the convertible bond market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Outlook - The convertible bond market approached the high point at the end of August again and had an obvious pullback this week. The anti - decline ability in this round is stronger than that at the end of August, and the 100 - yuan premium rate valuation is close to 40%. Although the convertible bond valuation has reached the highest point this year and the valuation protection is weak, there are still trading opportunities due to the limited decline of the equity market and under - allocated positions [2][3]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - The anti - decline ability of convertible bonds is strong, and the valuation has increased significantly. The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation (39.6%) has exceeded the high point on August 22 (37.6%). As of the latest, in the scenario of retaining outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the whole - market convertible bonds is 39.6%, with a weekly increase of 3.5%, and the latest percentile is at the 97.6% percentile since 2017. Although the underlying stocks have fallen significantly, the anti - decline ability of convertible bonds is prominent. Especially, the conversion premium rate in the par value range above 130 yuan has increased significantly, while the valuation in the debt - biased area has slightly declined [2][4]. 3.3 Clause Statistics 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Lizhong Convertible Bond, Chutian Convertible Bond, Guocheng Convertible Bond, Mingdianzhuan 02, and Hongfa Convertible Bond announced redemptions, while Huicheng, Haoyuan, and Aofei Convertible Bonds announced non - redemptions, with a forced redemption rate of 63%. Currently, there are 16 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption announcements or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted. The potential conversion or maturity balance of forced - redeemed and maturing convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones is 9.3 billion yuan. There are currently 40 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 9 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 14 are expected to issue trigger redemption announcements [2][17]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - No convertible bonds proposed downward revisions this week. Aidi and Jingneng Convertible Bonds announced the results of downward revisions, both to the bottom. As of the latest, there are 106 convertible bonds in the temporary non - downward - revision range, 20 convertible bonds cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 2 convertible bonds have triggered the condition and the stock price is still lower than the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 34 convertible bonds are accumulating the days for downward revision, and no convertible bonds have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not held a general meeting of shareholders [2][21]. 3.3.3 Put - This week, Honglu and Bairun Convertible Bonds issued conditional put announcements. As of the latest, 7 convertible bonds are accumulating the days to trigger the put, among which 1 convertible bond is also accumulating the days for downward revision, and 6 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward - revision range [2][24]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Maolai Convertible Bond was issued. Maolai and Ruoke Convertible Bonds have been issued but not listed, and Zhuomei Convertible Bond will be listed next week (2025/11/24). As of the latest, there are 8 convertible bonds in the approval - for - registration progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 6.7 billion yuan; there are 6 convertible bonds in the progress of passing the listing committee, with a to - be - issued scale of 7.8 billion yuan [2][27].
可转债周度追踪:新一轮宏观事件主导期-20251012
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 13:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term equity markets are expected to adjust due to Sino - US relations, but the long - term trend of stronger stocks and weaker bonds may not reverse. The adjustment of the equity market will determine the subsequent trend of convertible bonds, which are likely to show resilience. [1][2][11] - Structural opportunities in convertible bonds are better than overall market conditions. Low - premium varieties are more resilient, and mid - and low - priced convertible bonds have strong gaming value. Investors can select varieties with "double - low" (low price + low premium) or "low price + high elasticity" potential. [2][11] - Convertible bonds in a high - valuation state show stagnation and vulnerability. However, there are positive signals on the supply side, and the market may improve marginally in 2026. The recent tariff issue is likely to be a one - time shock rather than a trend - setting impact. [4][9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - High - valuation convertible bonds show stagnation and vulnerability. ETF and "fixed - income +" funds have small net outflows, but the pace has slowed. [9] - There are positive signals on the supply side, with an increase in issuance plans and faster regulatory approvals, which may alleviate the "few bonds and high prices" situation. [4][10] - The recent tariff issue is more of a threat than an actual operation, and the market may view it as a one - time shock. [4][10] - Short - term equity market adjustment is expected, but convertible bonds are likely to be resilient. Structural opportunities are better, and specific convertible bonds are recommended for October. [11][12] 3.2 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking - **2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions**: The document provides the performance of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, such as the WanDe Convertible Bond Energy Index, WanDe Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [17] - **2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities**: The document does not provide specific summarized content for this part. - **2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation**: The document shows the valuation trends of different types of convertible bonds, including bond - type, balanced, and stock - type convertible bonds. [21][23][25] - **2.4 Convertible Bond Price**: The document presents the proportion trend of high - price bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds. [32][34]