2025 年 11 月 23 日 转债抗跌性突出,百元估 40% 转债周度跟踪 20251121 1. 周观点及展望 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 表 1: 本周百元估值表现偏强,再度逼近前高 | 百元溢价率估值 | 最新値 | 単周变化 | 2017 以来分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 保留异常点 | | | 全样本 | 39.6% | 3.5% | 97.6% | | AA+(含)以上 | 30.8% | 2.4% | 100.0% | | AA(含)以下 | 40.7% | 3.6% | 96.3% | | | | 去除异常点 | | | 全样本 | 30.5% | 0.6% | 99.8% | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term equity markets are expected to adjust due to Sino - US relations, but the long - term trend of stronger stocks and weaker bonds may not reverse. The adjustment of the equity market will determine the subsequent trend of convertible bonds, which are likely to show resilience. [1][2][11] - Structural opportunities in convertible bonds are better than overall market conditions. Low - premium varieties are more resilient, and mid - and low - priced convertible bonds have strong gaming value. Investors can select varieties with "double - low" (low price + low premium) or "low price + high elasticity" potential. [2][11] - Convertible bonds in a high - valuation state show stagnation and vulnerability. However, there are positive signals on the supply side, and the market may improve marginally in 2026. The recent tariff issue is likely to be a one - time shock rather than a trend - setting impact. [4][9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - High - valuation convertible bonds show stagnation and vulnerability. ETF and "fixed - income +" funds have small net outflows, but the pace has slowed. [9] - There are positive signals on the supply side, with an increase in issuance plans and faster regulatory approvals, which may alleviate the "few bonds and high prices" situation. [4][10] - The recent tariff issue is more of a threat than an actual operation, and the market may view it as a one - time shock. [4][10] - Short - term equity market adjustment is expected, but convertible bonds are likely to be resilient. Structural opportunities are better, and specific convertible bonds are recommended for October. [11][12] 3.2 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking - **2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions**: The document provides the performance of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, such as the WanDe Convertible Bond Energy Index, WanDe Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [17] - **2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities**: The document does not provide specific summarized content for this part. - **2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation**: The document shows the valuation trends of different types of convertible bonds, including bond - type, balanced, and stock - type convertible bonds. [21][23][25] - **2.4 Convertible Bond Price**: The document presents the proportion trend of high - price bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds. [32][34]