年内"股强债弱"背景下，多只"固收+"基金也演绎出不同的净值曲线，多只产品凭借股票、可转债高弹性布 局得以实现业绩领跑，而部分重仓长久期债券的基金则表现一般。此外，与业绩相伴而生的则是风险敞口 愈发显著，近日就有多家公募以及代销渠道官宣提升旗下"固收+"类型产品风险等级。 在存款利率持续下行的情况，"固收+"以攻守兼备的特质，得以在股债间寻求风险和收益的巧妙平衡，产品吸 引力持续攀升。 展望后市，有公募基金表示，当前债市总体偏利多，债券市场具备稳定运行的基础；权益市场则短期内涨幅较 大，预计依然以结构性行情为主，所以，向"固收+"寻求更高的风险收益比成为市场共识。 "固收+"凭借权益实现领跑 涨幅位居第二的华商双翼也是类似情况，截至二季度末，该基金超过40%的资产也为股票，重仓股中囊括 了"易中天"（新易盛、中际旭创和天孚通信）。不仅如此，在债券部分，该基金也将53%的资产投向了可转 债。基金经理表示："2025年下半年可转债市场在债券收益率逐步下行的大背景下，相对性价比逐步提升。本 基金在固收部分投资继续以可转债为主，少量投资1年内政府债券，对可转债做分散投资。" 此外，其余涨幅居前的富国久利稳健配置、民生 ...

（原标题：10月纯债基金遇冷 公募新规临近债市格局有望重塑） 比如，10月22日，大成基金公告称，大成惠享一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金于10月21日发生 大额赎回，因此自当日起将其份额净值精度提高至小数点后八位。10月16日，广发基金亦公告，"广发 上海清算所0-4年央企80债券指数证券投资基金D类"于10月15日发生大额赎回，决定同样提高其份额净 值精度至小数点后8位。 涉及债券品种则以纯债型为主，指数型为少数，但未见混合型身影。此番情景主要源于今年大类资产配 置偏好轮动，在"风向标"投资风格资金切换的背景下，权益资产表现红火，而固收产品相对受冷，市场 交易定价预期呈现"股强债弱"的赛道切换态势。 10月末，债基产品正经历"秋风萧瑟"。 记者据同花顺iFinD公告梳理，截至10月27日，2025年下半年以来，至少有81只债券型产品面对大额赎 回，需提高基金份额净值精度以应对。其中，至少21只集中出现在10月份。 在10月纯债产品坐"冷板凳"的同时，"固收+"、混合型产品则青云直上。 相较过去债券牛市所带来的"稳稳的安心"，一家大型公募基金机构理财业务负责人对21世纪经济报道表 示，近期市场偏好上的变 ...

央行预告10月MLF连续第八个月加量续做，继续保持市场流动性充裕，显示货币政策延续支持性立 场。当前仍处政府债券较大规模发行阶段，央行注入中期流动性，体现了货币政策与财政政策之间的协 调配合。 行情回顾 2025年10月24日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年 期较2025年10月17日分别变动2.82BP、-0.17BP、1.54BP、2.75BP、3.72BP、2.4BP、1.24BP、3.5BP。 新华财经北京10月27日电（王柘）上周（2025年10月20日至10月24日）资金面均衡偏松，股市经历震荡 整理后继续走强，上证指数再创逾十年新高。风险偏好走高下，债市整体回调，10年期国债收益率上行 2.4BP至1.85%。周内走势节奏受中美经贸磋商、基金费率新规、货币宽松预期等因素牵动，收益率 呈"N"形走高。 | | | 中德国债收益率曲线(到期)% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 10月17日 | 10月24日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.1242 | 1.0842 | - पें | | 0 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 12 日 新一轮宏观事件主导期 ——可转债周度追踪 执业证书号：S1230525050001 chentingting01@stocke.com.cn ❑ 风险提示 经济基本面改善不足；国内流动性收紧；海外风险事件超预期；历史经验不代表 未来 核心观点 短期权益市场受中美关系相关事件的扰动预计出现调整，中长期股强债弱的大趋势或 不会就此逆转。本次市场调整的幅度、节奏和时间长度决定了转债后续的走势，但转 债大概率呈现保持抗跌性，结构性机会优于整体性行情。 短期权益市场受中美关系相关事件的扰动预计出现调整。回望四月初，权益调整 程度很深，调整仅有一天，次日开始上证指数开始 V 性修复。而中证转债走势和 权益一样，展现明显的抗跌性。10 月 12 日，市场调整相对克制，市场学习效应 下，关税对市场的单日扰动相对较少。此外，我们认为股债市场底层逻辑或已发 生显著变化，股强债弱的阶段性行情大趋势或不会就此逆转。本次市场调整的幅 度、节奏和时间长度决定了转债后续的走势，但转债大概率呈现抗跌性。 ❑ 转债结构性机会优于整体 ...

Group 1 - The bond market risks have not been resolved, and there is still room for adjustment within the year, with an upper limit potentially exceeding 1.8% [1] - Market expectations regarding monetary policy provide some support at key levels, but these expectations can eventually lead to either a positive or negative outcome [1] - The trend of "strong stocks and weak bonds" remains unchanged despite overseas interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The equity market is currently in a phase of risk appetite increase, and overseas interest rate cuts may provide emotional support [1] - Institutional reallocation between equity and bond assets continues, making it easier for bond rates to rise but harder for them to fall [1] - Recent rebounds in domestic commodities driven by policy expectation speculation may face a phase of correction [1]

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market showed a low opening and high closing trend, with a slight increase. The expectation is that the bond market will hit a new low for the year, targeting the low point around September 30, 2024, when the policy shifted last year [1][11] - The A-share market is maintaining a bullish trend, with a significant increase in trading volume and volatility after breaking the high point from October 8 last year. The outlook suggests that the stock market will continue to outperform the bond market [1][11] - The overall market is experiencing a V-shaped reversal, with the ChiNext index leading the gains among the three major indices. The total trading volume reached 2.36 trillion, with over 3,500 stocks rising, indicating a strong market consolidation at high levels [2][14] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The current Equity Risk Premium (ERP) for the A-share market is at 4.02%, which is significantly lower than historical lows observed in 2008, 2015, and 2021, indicating potential for further declines [2][14] - The ratio of total A-share market capitalization to GDP is currently at 0.75, which is 77% and 43% lower than the historical peaks in January 2008 and June 2015, respectively, suggesting room for growth in market capitalization relative to the economy [2][14] - The ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization is at 1.7, indicating that the process of reallocating household funds into the stock market may still be ongoing [2][14] Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Nasdaq increasing by 0.94%, the Dow Jones by 0.11%, and the S&P 500 by 0.47%. The weak employment data has set the stage for a rate cut in September, although the market's pricing of a 50 basis point cut may be overly optimistic [3][17] - The U.S. economy remains robust, with second-quarter GDP growth revised upward, supporting a stable employment market. The labor market's slowdown provides a basis for the Federal Reserve's dovish stance [3][17] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1151, down 83 basis points from the previous close. The weak non-farm data has led to a decline in the dollar, while the offshore RMB has returned to an upward trend [4][23] - The recommendation is to short the dollar with a stop loss at the 99 level, while also suggesting that investing in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, or precious metals like gold and silver may be better options compared to shorting the dollar [4][23] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.66%, with coal and construction materials leading the gains, while corn and live pig sectors lagged. The index is supported at the intersection of the 60-day and half-year moving averages [5][26] - Despite the potential for a breakdown below support levels, the strong stock market and weak bond market combination suggests a bullish outlook for commodities, with a focus on long positions while managing risk [5][26] Group 6: Important Policies and News - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released measures to expand service consumption, proposing 19 initiatives to stimulate consumer activity [6][29] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for global financial governance reform in response to new challenges in the financial stability framework [6][29] - Guangdong province is promoting AI integration in the toy industry, exploring new market opportunities through the combination of AI, toys, and robotics [6][29]

Group 1: Summary of the Core View - The current economic readings are rather dull, with the overall production growth slowing down in August. The single - month economic data is prone to fluctuations, but the internal economic momentum continues to recover [4][5][7] - The contradiction in current asset pricing does not lie in the fundamentals. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" situation is the result of institutional re - allocation of stock and bond assets, and single - month data fluctuations will not change the current risk - preference environment or the expected direction of institutional asset re - allocation [6] - When dealing with the bond market, one should adopt a trading - based approach, focus on the opportunities of structural term spreads and variety spreads, as the bond market remains a "weak asset" and single - month economic data is unlikely to change the trend [9] Group 2: Industry Data Analysis Industrial Industry - In the upstream of the industrial industry, the production of non - ferrous metal processing, non - metallic products, and chemical raw material products has accelerated year - on - year. In the mid - and downstream equipment and consumer goods manufacturing, the output growth of the pharmaceutical and special equipment production has accelerated. The growth rate of industrial added value in other industries has declined compared with last month [4] - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.5 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among the three major sectors, the production growth rate of the mining industry has rebounded, while the year - on - year growth rates of the manufacturing and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water have declined [7] Service Industry - The growth rate of service industry production has slowed down. In August, the service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month. The prosperity of producer services such as information technology, finance, and leasing is higher than the overall service industry [4] Investment - The growth rate of fixed - asset investment has slowed down. In August, the completed amount of fixed - asset investment decreased by 7.15% year - on - year, 1.81 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among them, real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments decreased by 19.5%, 6.4%, and 1.3% year - on - year respectively [8] - Real estate sales and investment continue to bottom out, with the decline in sales prices narrowing. In August, the sales volume and sales area of commercial housing decreased by 14% and 10.6% year - on - year respectively. The real estate new construction area and completion area decreased by 20.3% and 21.4% year - on - year respectively [8] Consumption - In terms of consumption, catering consumption is recovering, while commodity consumption has slowed down, which may be affected by the "national subsidy" rhythm adjustment in some provinces. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.3 percentage points lower than that of last month [8] - Among commodity consumption, the year - on - year growth rates of gold and silver jewelry, household appliances, and communication equipment have changed significantly compared with last month. The sales volume of gold and silver jewelry may be related to the rapid rise in precious metal prices, while the slowdown of household appliances and communication equipment may be affected by the "national subsidy" rhythm adjustment after the "618" promotion [8] Group 3: Impact of Economic Data - After the release of economic data, bond yields first declined and then rose. The bond market has experienced an oversold rebound recently. After the release of economic data, the long - term bond yields rebounded, but then rose again [7] - Single - month economic data is affected by policy rhythm changes and structural transformation, and its fluctuations are unlikely to change the overall trend. Although the overall economic data in August is not outstanding, the internal economic momentum continues to recover [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF has shown active trading and significant net inflows, indicating investor interest despite recent declines in bond prices due to inflation data [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 11, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF is priced at 118.16 yuan, with a trading volume of 60.84 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 19.46% [1] - The average daily trading volume for the past month is 108.25 billion yuan, reflecting a vibrant market activity [1] Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF is 31.252 billion yuan, with a total net inflow of 15.97 billion yuan over the past five days, averaging 3.19 billion yuan per day [1] - The highest single-day net inflow recorded was 5.12 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - On September 10, the national statistics bureau reported a 0.4% year-on-year decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, which contributed to the adjustment in the bond market [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a 2.9% year-on-year decline, ending an eight-month downward trend, which has drawn significant market attention [1] Group 4: Analyst Insights - According to Zhongtai Securities, bonds are considered "weak assets," suggesting a cautious approach to bond investments [1] - The preference for equities over bonds is driven by institutional rebalancing demands, influencing capital allocation between these asset classes [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Report Date: 2025/09/05 - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License Number: Z0001908) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The report suggests a trading strategy of taking advantage of market fluctuations. It advises buying on dips and setting profit targets. The bond market may continue to fluctuate in a situation where stocks are strong and bonds are weak, as long as the A-share market does not show an obvious downward trend [2][4] Key Points Summarized by Section Market Performance - On Friday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed down across the board, with TL experiencing the largest decline. Spot bond yields rose across the board but fell back after the futures market closed. The open market had a net withdrawal of 59.46 billion yuan. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 remaining around 1.31% [2] - The A-share market's sharp adjustment the previous day did not bring more upward momentum to the bond market. Instead, the bond market declined as the stock market rebounded strongly. The 30-year Treasury bond issuance rate was slightly higher, and the situation was mediocre [4] Specific Contract Data | Contract | 2025-09-05 Price | 2025-09-04 Price | Change | 2025-09-05 Position | 2025-09-04 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.388 | 102.44 | -0.052 | 73,830 | 76,004 | -2,174 | | TF2512 | 105.58 | 105.745 | -0.165 | 139,550 | 142,981 | -3,431 | | T2512 | 107.92 | 108.27 | -0.35 | 218,747 | 217,136 | 1,611 | | TL2512 | 116.3 | 117.4 | -1.1 | 142,701 | 140,684 | 2,017 | [5] Basis and Trading Volume Data | Contract | 2025-09-05 Basis | 2025-09-04 Basis | Basis Change | 2025-09-05 Trading Volume | 2025-09-04 Trading Volume | Volume Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS (CTD) | -0.0605 | -0.0299 | -0.0306 | 32,921 | 31,545 | 1,376 | | TF (CTD) | -0.0455 | 0.0269 | -0.0724 | 75,029 | 62,934 | 12,095 | | T (CTD) | 0.3381 | 0.3866 | -0.0485 | 92,512 | 83,913 | 8,599 | | TL (CTD) | 0.6967 | 0.8792 | -0.1825 | 169,741 | 135,244 | 34,497 | [7] Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [3] - US ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly to 54,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since June [3] - The weighted winning bid yields for the 1-year and 30-year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.3485% and 2.1139% respectively, with full - scale multiples of 2.33 and 3.02, and marginal multiples of 1.61 and 4.46 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rebound in the A-share market during the first half of 2025, with equity assets driving strong performance in public funds, resulting in an overall investment income of 636.17 billion yuan [1] - Equity funds, particularly stock and mixed funds, have shown remarkable performance, contributing over 334.44 billion yuan to the total public fund income, which is more than half of the overall earnings [2] - The bond and money market funds have seen a decline in profitability compared to the same period last year, with bond funds earning 95.50 billion yuan and money market funds earning 95.45 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The trend of increasing concentration among top fund companies is evident, with 162 fund companies reporting positive investment returns, and only 7 companies posting losses [4] - Leading companies such as E Fund and Huaxia Fund achieved investment returns exceeding 55 billion yuan, showcasing their strong market positioning [4] - The performance of broad-based ETFs has been particularly strong, with the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF leading with a profit of 8.1 billion yuan, indicating their effectiveness in capturing market rebounds [5] Group 3 - The structural differentiation in fund performance is notable, with broad-based ETFs dominating the profit rankings, while thematic index funds, particularly in sectors like liquor and photovoltaic, faced significant losses [5] - The top ten loss-making products are predominantly passive funds, highlighting the challenges faced by thematic funds in a rapidly changing market environment [5]