以下文章来源于Counterpoint 咨询 ，作者Counterpoint 在 GeForce 产品线上，本届 CES 预计将聚焦 RTX 50 "Super" 系列的升级问题，而非推出全新架构。 因此 Counterpoint 预计将看到规格调整、合作伙伴设计以及创作者和 RTX 应用演示，而非代际更 迭。现场演示将重点展示生成式 AI 创作、轻薄型 RTX 笔记本电脑，以及边缘计算和机器人场景， 这些应用将使 Blackwell级技术不再仅限于云端应用。 Counterpoint 咨询 . Counterpoint Research 是一家专注于科技行业的全球性研究公司，在全球主要的市场有着强大的影响 力。我们致力于为合作伙伴提供准确、及时的市场数据，帮助他们做出明智的决策。 CES 2026 将于 1 月拉开帷幕，一系列重磅发布将集中体现高性能计算的持续崛起、汽车产业向"软 件优先"开发模式的加速转型，以及嵌入式 AI 在 PC、智能眼镜及各类健康与可穿戴设备中的持续普 及。 Counterpoint 的分析师团队将在展会期间驻守拉斯维加斯。若您亲临现场，欢迎随时与我们联系洽 谈。您亦可关注我们的动态 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of AI applications and the potential for large models to dominate various application scenarios by 2026, emphasizing the need for a deeper understanding of AI's application layer [3] - It highlights the distinction between execution tools and thinking tools, predicting that the future will see a shift towards tools that facilitate exploration and creativity rather than just execution [9][10] Group 1: AI Application Landscape - Acharya notes that while the cost of coding has decreased, this benefit has not yet permeated the entire industry, suggesting that the understanding of future company structures and software types is still limited [7] - The future of AI applications will be a combination of top models' scheduling capabilities, specialized user interfaces, and abundant functionalities, leading to a clear differentiation between applications and underlying models [22] - The emergence of "Narrow Startups" will dominate the market, focusing on deep and specialized products rather than broad consumer applications [22] Group 2: Tool Evolution - The next generation of programming and productivity tools will shift from execution to exploration, with tools like Cursor and Google's Antigravity leading this change [12][14] - Acharya emphasizes that every team within a company will need to adopt a "software-first" approach, transforming all departments into software teams [18] - The introduction of AI programming agents will significantly expand the ambitions of companies, allowing for a re-evaluation of product development and prioritization processes [18] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article argues that applications will not be consumed by models, as evidenced by a thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem in programming, with new revenue exceeding $1 billion in 2025 [28] - Companies with unique datasets, network effects, and complex ecosystems will have significant advantages in the market [30][32] - The article suggests that the future of AI applications will be characterized by extreme specialization, allowing applications to exist independently from models [27] Group 4: Consumer Engagement - The article discusses how ordinary consumers are beginning to engage with AI capabilities, moving beyond traditional command-line interfaces to more accessible tools [34] - Acharya believes that enabling consumers to create with AI will change perceptions and increase engagement with AI technologies [34] - The article concludes with recommendations for CEOs on leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency and product innovation [36][38]