2026 年 01 月 03 日 1、《私人部门负债增速跌破前低— —10 月全社会债务数据综述》2025- 12-07 2、《政策内生——9 月全社会债务 数据综述》2025-11-09 3、《政策利好不断，科创债发展正 当时》2025-11-06 固 定 收 益 研 究 向择时和策略要收益——11 月全社会债务数据 综述 —固定收益专题报告 投资要点 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 在过去的 4 周时间里（2025 年 12 月 6 日发布 10 月全社会债 务数据综述以来），国内股牛债平，2025 年 12 月下旬资金 面的宽松超出了我们之前的预期，并在短期引发了风险偏好 的小幅抬升。盈利方面，我们作为盈利代理变量的私人部门 负债增速在 2025 年 11 月再创本轮新低，但或已基本触底。 展望 2026 年 1 月，盈利或能在 2025 年 10-11 月的底部出现 小幅改善，负债端基本保持平稳，风险偏好处于区间高位， 金融市场剩余流动性基本保持平稳，各类资产亦或基本处于 相对均衡的位置；从确定性的角度而言，长债收益率处于我 们预测的区间上沿附近，价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past 4 weeks, the domestic stock and bond markets both rose slightly, mainly due to the marginal relaxation of the capital market in October, with a slight decline in risk appetite and no unexpected overall trend [2]. - Looking ahead to November, profits will continue to run smoothly. After a slight improvement in the capital market at the beginning of the month, the risk of marginal convergence of macro - liquidity is increasing, and risk appetite is likely to continue to decline. The trend of bond - equity ratio favoring bonds and equity style favoring value remains unchanged. A combination of long - term bonds and value stocks is recommended [2][14][41]. - China's profit cycle may have entered a low - level narrow - range oscillation stage since the fourth quarter of last year. The private sector debt growth rate is introduced as a supplementary variable to proxy for profit, and currently, the further downward space of this data is limited [3]. - The domestic part of macro - liquidity corresponds to policies. In the long run, policies are endogenous and should conform to the economic cycle. China's policy goals of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio and financial institutions benefiting the real economy have remained stable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1全社会债务情况 - As of the end of September, China's total social debt balance was 500.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.4%, down from the previous value of 8.8% [16]. - At the end of September, the debt balance of financial institutions (inter - bank) was 91.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.4%, down from the previous value of 8.0% [18]. - At the end of September, the debt balance of the real sector was 408.6 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.8%, down from the previous value of 8.9%. Among them, the household debt balance was 81.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 2.2%; the government debt balance was 117.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 14.5%; the non - financial enterprise debt balance was 209.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5% [21][23]. - In September, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profit of state - owned enterprises increased by 7.5% year - on - year [26]. 3.2金融机构资产负债详解 - As of the end of September, the debt balance of broad financial institutions was 164.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.9%, down from the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, the bank debt balance was 135.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 7.1%; the non - bank financial institution debt balance was 29.4 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 0.8% [29]. - In September, the three quantitative indicators of monetary policy (base money balance growth rate, financial institution debt growth rate, and excess reserve ratio) showed two declines and one increase. Monetary policy continued to converge marginally in September, slightly relaxed in October, and the probability of further convergence remains high [7][14][31]. - The newly constructed NM2 has a similar trend to M2 but a lower absolute level since 2017. The recent situation indicates that the probability of further marginal convergence of monetary policy is still large [38]. 3.3资产配置 - In the past 4 weeks, the domestic stock and bond markets both rose slightly. Looking ahead to November, a combination of long - term bonds and value stocks is recommended [2][41]. - In September, the year - on - year growth rate of bank bond investment balance was 18.8%, lower than the previous value of 19.6%. The growth rate of the central bank and banks' total foreign asset balance was 3.6%, higher than the previous value of 3.4% [41][42]. - It is expected that the real economic growth rate of the United States will decline this year, inflation will remain high, and the nominal economic growth rate will decrease. The debt growth rate of the US real sector is expected to remain stable at around 3.4%. If the valuation of the US technology field is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China [15][42].

Core Argument - The article discusses the application of economic principles, particularly opportunity cost and information asymmetry, in military history, illustrating how these concepts can provide insights into historical military decisions and strategies [2][14]. Group 1: Economic Principles in Military History - The concept of "economic imperialism" has extended beyond traditional economic issues into various fields, including military strategy, where game theory has become integral to nuclear strategy [1]. - The book "Castles, Battles, and Bombs: Seven Economic Lessons About War" aims to reinterpret military history through basic economic principles, demonstrating how economic analysis can yield new insights [2][4]. Group 2: Opportunity Cost and Castles - Castles served as significant military structures in the Middle Ages, providing defensive advantages but at a high construction cost, leading to a dilemma for monarchs between building castles and maintaining large armies [5][6]. - The high costs associated with castles often made them less favorable compared to the flexibility and mobility offered by armies, highlighting the opportunity cost of military investments [6][7]. Group 3: Mercenaries and Information Asymmetry - The use of mercenaries has a long history, with city-states often relying on them due to the high costs of conscripting local populations and the need for skilled fighters [9][10]. - Contracts with mercenaries were complex and aimed at mitigating information asymmetry and ensuring accountability, reflecting the economic principles of agency theory [10][11][12]. Group 4: Economic Rationality in Military Decisions - The article argues that historical military leaders, despite their lack of formal economic training, often made decisions that aligned with economic rationality, such as weighing costs and benefits in military engagements [15]. - The persistence of economic principles in military decision-making suggests that further investment in economic analysis within military history research could yield valuable insights [15].