Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint On Tuesday, the I2605 contract rebounded after hitting a low. Macroeconomically, Trump stated that the military action against Iran might last 4 to 5 weeks, but he was prepared for it to last much longer. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, while the arrivals decreased. The domestic port inventory rose again, and there was an expectation of an increase in the blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills after the holiday. Overall, in the short term, freight rates were expected to rise due to the US - Iran conflict, but steel exports to the Middle East were blocked. With multiple factors in play, the market might fluctuate widely. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 - axis, with the red bar expanding. The suggestion was short - term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 753.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the position volume was 532,861 hands, down 9,866 hands. - The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 20.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 contract holders was - 34,449 hands, up 4,770 hands. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 2,900.00 hands, unchanged. - The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 99.15 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, down 0.11 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 806 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 708 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 44 yuan, up 4 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.35 US dollars/ton, up 0.60 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.28, down 0.04. - The estimated import cost was 798 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 3,340.70 tons, up 19.80 tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 2,230.00 tons, down 91.00 tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,891.30 tons, up 159.18 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,085.10 tons, down 1,618.83 tons. - The iron ore imports (monthly) were 11,965.00 tons, up 911.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 21.00 days, down 8 days. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 37.12 tons, down 1.78 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 59.03%, down 2.24%. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.72 tons, up 2.17 tons; the BDI index was 2,187.00, up 47.00. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.98 US dollars/ton, up 0.53 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.489 US dollars/ton, up 0.25 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 80.24%, up 0.09%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 87.48%, up 1.05%. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.38%, down 0.49%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.57%, unchanged. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.49%, up 1.68%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.81%, up 1.85% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the global iron ore shipments were 3,340.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.8 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,690.7 tons. The shipments from Australia were 1,948.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.3 tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 1,571.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 138.0 tons. The shipments from Brazil were 742.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.7 tons. - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,230.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 91.1 tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2,146.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,032.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The PG futures price has declined, with a decrease in the basis and a change in the 01 - 02 spread. Domestic civil gas prices have fallen, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas with a shrinking propane - civil gas price difference. Warehouse receipts have decreased. The overseas paper - cargo prices have dropped, and the spread has strengthened. The price ratio between North Asian and North American oil and gas has changed little. The PG - CP and PG - FEI spreads have changed. The premiums and discounts for East China arrival, North American and AFEI departure have remained flat, while the premium for Middle Eastern goods has increased. Freight rates have slightly declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene has slightly recovered, and the alkylation unit has slightly improved but is still poor. The MTBE production profit has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good. There is an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, a slight accumulation of factory inventories, and an accumulation of port inventories. The PDH operating rate has decreased, and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand has increased, but there are expected to be more arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may be more inclined to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Price Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4411 (+35), in Shandong was 4480 (+10), and in South China was 4530 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4480 (-20). The lowest - delivery area was East China, with a basis of 129 (+65) and a 01 - 02 spread of 91 (+4). As of 21:00, FEI was 509 (-1) and CP was 500 (+0) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Price and Market Conditions - The PG futures price has decreased, with a basis of - 43 (-57) and a 01 - 02 spread of 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices have dropped, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), with a shrinking propane - civil gas price difference. Warehouse receipts are 4561 hands (-54). Overseas paper - cargo prices have declined, and the spread has strengthened. The price ratio between North Asian and North American oil and gas has changed little, and the PG - CP has reached 126 (-2); the PG - FEI has reached 114 (+3). The premiums and discounts for East China arrival, North American and AFEI departure have remained flat, while the premium for Middle Eastern goods is 35 dollars (+13). Freight rates have slightly decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed to - 55 (+11) [1] 3.3 Profit and Operating Rate - The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene has slightly recovered. The alkylation unit has slightly improved but is still poor. The MTBE production profit has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good. The PDH operating rate is 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week [1] 3.4 Inventory and Market Outlook - There is an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, a slight accumulation of factory inventories, and an accumulation of port inventories. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand has increased, but there are expected to be more arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may be more inclined to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored [1]