期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多情绪回暖，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2512 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多情绪回暖，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher due to some device news. The spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the basis of the spot slightly strengthened. The supply of PTA is expected to return, and the market supply - demand outlook is weak. The spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG**: The price of ethylene glycol was consolidating at a low level. The short - term supply and demand of ethylene glycol remained tight, and the basis still had some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand in the distant months will turn loose, and the disk will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.前日回顾 There is no specific content about the previous day's review in the report. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA**: The fundamentals were affected by device news. The spot basis was - 92, the factory inventory was 3.84 days (a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period), and the 20 - day moving average was downward. The main position was net short with a decrease in short positions. The supply is expected to return, and the price will follow the cost side [5][6]. - **MEG**: The price was consolidating at a low level. The spot basis was 76, the inventory in East China was 37.24 tons (a decrease of 0.73 tons compared with the previous period), and the 20 - day moving average was downward. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions. The short - term supply and demand was tight, but the long - term supply - demand will turn loose [7][8]. 3.3.今日关注 There is no specific content about what to focus on today in the report. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025. For example, in September 2025, the PTA production capacity was 9172, the production was 626, the total supply was 626, the total demand was 624, and the ending inventory was 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025. For example, in September 2025, the EG production was 58, the total supply was 234, the total demand was 233, and the port inventory change was 2 [13]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester filaments, as well as the processing fees and profits of different production methods. For example, the PTA processing fee was 51.58 yuan/ton, and the naphtha MEG internal - market profit was - 1110.70 yuan/ton [14]. 3.5.影响因素总结 - **L利多**: The average operating load of polyester devices increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start was slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device was shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **利空**: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continued to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere was still cautious. The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the disk rebound [10].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in copper prices by over 18% on the announcement day [1] - Copper ore and cathode copper have been exempted from tariffs, which was unexpected by the market, weakening previous expectations of increased domestic copper production and decreased demand for non-American copper [1] - The exemption is expected to be bullish for copper prices from a global supply-demand perspective, but a decrease in U.S. copper imports is anticipated in the second half of the year, potentially increasing non-American copper supply and negatively impacting LME and SHFE copper prices [1] Group 2 - Current global market risk appetite is high, with positive performance in both domestic and international equity markets, which is bullish for copper prices [2] - Recent weak U.S. non-farm data and lower-than-expected non-manufacturing PMI have raised expectations of a weakening U.S. economy, leading to increased predictions of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Domestic macroeconomic conditions have improved, with a general upward trend in pricing for domestic commodities, although the market has shown signs of cooling towards the end of July [2] Group 3 - The current copper market is characterized by a strong domestic performance and weak external conditions, with domestic electrolytic copper inventory depletion slowing and overseas copper inventory accumulating at high levels [2] - The exclusion of refined copper and copper ore from U.S. tariffs has led to a convergence of LME and COMEX copper price differentials to normal levels, reducing the tariff's impact on copper prices [3] - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a 90-day extension of tariff policies, contributing to improved trade relations and potentially supporting copper price trends [3]

Report Overview 1. Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] 2. Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei - Investment Consulting Number: Z0021184 - Date: August 3, 2025 [2] 3. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Viewpoint - Policy expectations have eased, leading to a slight decline in steel prices [3] Market Analysis 1. Logic - The expectation of anti-involution policies has eased, and the black market has returned to fundamental trading, resulting in a slight decline in steel prices [5] 2. Macro Environment Domestic Macro - The political statement on anti-involution has been revised, leading to eased policy expectations. The 30th July Politburo meeting removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the 1st July Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting, and changed "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity" to "promoting the governance of key industry production capacity" [5][8] Overseas Macro - The US core PCE index in June had a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating a phased tendency to maintain high interest rates. The conflicting demands between different political stances may lead to repeated views, which could harm the US dollar's credit [5][9] 3. Black Industry Chain - Demand has exceeded expectations, the decline of hot metal production is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. During the off-season, steel demand has exceeded expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits have expanded, and the decline of hot metal production is slow [5][11] Rebar Fundamental Data 1. Basis and Spread - The spread is approaching the risk-free window. Reverse arbitrage should take profit, and attention should be paid to positive arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3360 (-70) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3203 (-153) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 157 (-83) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -54 (-11) yuan/ton [14][18] 2. Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains at a low level. Demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [19][22][23] 3. Inventory - MS weekly data shows that steel inventories are at a low level and have not increased, indicating low pressure on the industrial chain [25] 4. Production Profit - The expectation of anti-involution policies has been revised, leading to a reduction in profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 335 (-92) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 285 (-46) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley electricity profit was 182 (-112) yuan/ton [31][35] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 1. Basis and Spread - Reverse arbitrage should take profit and focus on positive arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3410 (-90) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3401 (-106) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 9 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -2 (+9) yuan/ton [37] 2. Demand - Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and white goods production has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, and the export window has closed [38][41][42] 3. Inventory - MS weekly data shows that off-season demand has slightly exceeded expectations, and the accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventory has slowed down [44] 4. Production - MS weekly data shows that hot-rolled coil production has declined [46] 5. Production Profit - The expectation of anti-involution policies has been revised, leading to a reduction in profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 217 (-109) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 333 (+1) yuan/ton [48][51] Other Market Information 1. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread [52] 2. Variety Regional Difference - The report provides data on regional price differences for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil [60][61][62] 3. Cold-Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate [64][65]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report - Date: July 23, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current fundamentals of copper are supportive, with significant growth in Chinese copper demand and favorable domestic and international macro - environments. Short - term, copper prices are expected to continue rising [11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper closed with a doji star, and the total open interest decreased by 1,386 lots. The sentiment for going long on industrial products was high during the day, but copper prices were relatively flat, with weak capital entry willingness. The futures market maintained a structure where the near - month contracts were in contango and the far - month contracts were in back. The spot premium continued to rise to 240, and the LME 0 - 3 contango widened to $67/ton. The short - term spot market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. In June 2025, China's copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, hitting a multi - year high for the same period [11]. 3.2 Industry News - In June, the export volume of refined copper rods (>6mm) continued to reach a new high, with stable growth in the Southeast Asian market. The total export volume of refined copper rods with a maximum cross - section >6mm was 9,827.53 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 50.36%. The export volume of refined copper rods with a maximum cross - section >6mm through feed - processing trade in June 2025 was 7,183.14 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.22% and a year - on - year increase of 33.75 times [12]. - Russia's Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) currently expects its copper production this year to be between 343,000 - 355,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate of 353,000 - 373,000 tons. The company's nickel production in the second quarter was 45,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and palladium production was 658,000 ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [12]. - Anglo Asian Mining plc announced that its Demirli copper mine in the Karabakh Economic Region of Azerbaijan has started trial production, and the output is expected to increase by the end of this year. The company expects its copper concentrate output in 2025 to be 4,000 tons, and after 2026, the annual output of the Demirli copper mine will increase to 15,000 tons. The mining life of the mine depends on further geopolitical developments and the mineral resource model [12].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 3: Core View - The short - term macro - face remains weak, but the copper fundamentals are strongly supported, and the judgment of buying on dips is maintained [11] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose. Although Trump's consideration of striking Iran drove up crude oil prices, the market's risk - aversion sentiment did not rise significantly, gold continued to weaken, and most other industrial products rose [11] - The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its June rate decision, but it is difficult to have an obvious dovish statement under the influence of rising crude oil prices and tariff issues [11] - On the spot side, the domestic premium declined, and the concern of warehouse receipt outflow made traders rush to sell. The back structure between months on the disk narrowed due to rising copper prices and the off - season of downstream demand [11] - LME market inventory turned to a reduction of 200 tons again, but Singapore warehouses continued to accumulate 1625 tons. The LME0 - 3back widened to 122, and the spot shortage in the LME market intensified, opening the domestic spot export window further [11] - The current global copper prices are Shanghai copper < LME copper < COMEX copper, and domestic copper supplies are expected to flow to the LME market, so it is difficult for the domestic spot to be significantly loose [11] Group 5: Industry News - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. and Ajlan & Bros Mining Company's new joint - venture enterprise case entered the publicity period from June 16 to June 25, 2025. The joint - venture will engage in exploration, potential mining, operation, management, and sales of minerals in Saudi Arabia [12] - The new orders in the enameled wire industry have continued to decline recently. The industry has entered the off - season, and the demand side is sluggish, especially the demand from the home appliance port [12] - India's Adani copper smelter with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons投料 again on June 16, but there is a risk of cancellation of its long - term copper concentrate supply contract with South America due to previous delays [13]

Group 1 - Styrene futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7492.00 yuan, with a current price of 7340.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.05% [1] - New Lake Futures indicates a shift in market sentiment towards optimism, driven by macroeconomic signals and a slight increase in production prices [2] - The supply-demand balance for styrene is currently weak, with expectations of gradual improvement in operating rates in May and June, but potential volatility remains [2] Group 2 - Wenkang Futures notes that the cost of pure benzene is rising, with prices at 5585 yuan/ton in Shandong and 5975 yuan/ton in East China, indicating upward pressure on styrene prices [3] - The absolute inventory of styrene at ports is low, and macroeconomic improvements are contributing to the price rebound [3] - The operational suggestion is to treat the current rebound cautiously, as downstream production plans are weakening [3]