Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in copper prices by over 18% on the announcement day [1] - Copper ore and cathode copper have been exempted from tariffs, which was unexpected by the market, weakening previous expectations of increased domestic copper production and decreased demand for non-American copper [1] - The exemption is expected to be bullish for copper prices from a global supply-demand perspective, but a decrease in U.S. copper imports is anticipated in the second half of the year, potentially increasing non-American copper supply and negatively impacting LME and SHFE copper prices [1] Group 2 - Current global market risk appetite is high, with positive performance in both domestic and international equity markets, which is bullish for copper prices [2] - Recent weak U.S. non-farm data and lower-than-expected non-manufacturing PMI have raised expectations of a weakening U.S. economy, leading to increased predictions of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Domestic macroeconomic conditions have improved, with a general upward trend in pricing for domestic commodities, although the market has shown signs of cooling towards the end of July [2] Group 3 - The current copper market is characterized by a strong domestic performance and weak external conditions, with domestic electrolytic copper inventory depletion slowing and overseas copper inventory accumulating at high levels [2] - The exclusion of refined copper and copper ore from U.S. tariffs has led to a convergence of LME and COMEX copper price differentials to normal levels, reducing the tariff's impact on copper prices [3] - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a 90-day extension of tariff policies, contributing to improved trade relations and potentially supporting copper price trends [3]

Report Overview 1. Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] 2. Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei - Investment Consulting Number: Z0021184 - Date: August 3, 2025 [2] 3. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Viewpoint - Policy expectations have eased, leading to a slight decline in steel prices [3] Market Analysis 1. Logic - The expectation of anti-involution policies has eased, and the black market has returned to fundamental trading, resulting in a slight decline in steel prices [5] 2. Macro Environment Domestic Macro - The political statement on anti-involution has been revised, leading to eased policy expectations. The 30th July Politburo meeting removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the 1st July Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting, and changed "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity" to "promoting the governance of key industry production capacity" [5][8] Overseas Macro - The US core PCE index in June had a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating a phased tendency to maintain high interest rates. The conflicting demands between different political stances may lead to repeated views, which could harm the US dollar's credit [5][9] 3. Black Industry Chain - Demand has exceeded expectations, the decline of hot metal production is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. During the off-season, steel demand has exceeded expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits have expanded, and the decline of hot metal production is slow [5][11] Rebar Fundamental Data 1. Basis and Spread - The spread is approaching the risk-free window. Reverse arbitrage should take profit, and attention should be paid to positive arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3360 (-70) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3203 (-153) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 157 (-83) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -54 (-11) yuan/ton [14][18] 2. Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains at a low level. Demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [19][22][23] 3. Inventory - MS weekly data shows that steel inventories are at a low level and have not increased, indicating low pressure on the industrial chain [25] 4. Production Profit - The expectation of anti-involution policies has been revised, leading to a reduction in profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 335 (-92) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 285 (-46) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley electricity profit was 182 (-112) yuan/ton [31][35] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 1. Basis and Spread - Reverse arbitrage should take profit and focus on positive arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3410 (-90) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3401 (-106) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 9 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -2 (+9) yuan/ton [37] 2. Demand - Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and white goods production has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, and the export window has closed [38][41][42] 3. Inventory - MS weekly data shows that off-season demand has slightly exceeded expectations, and the accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventory has slowed down [44] 4. Production - MS weekly data shows that hot-rolled coil production has declined [46] 5. Production Profit - The expectation of anti-involution policies has been revised, leading to a reduction in profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 217 (-109) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 333 (+1) yuan/ton [48][51] Other Market Information 1. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread [52] 2. Variety Regional Difference - The report provides data on regional price differences for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil [60][61][62] 3. Cold-Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate [64][65]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report - Date: July 23, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current fundamentals of copper are supportive, with significant growth in Chinese copper demand and favorable domestic and international macro - environments. Short - term, copper prices are expected to continue rising [11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper closed with a doji star, and the total open interest decreased by 1,386 lots. The sentiment for going long on industrial products was high during the day, but copper prices were relatively flat, with weak capital entry willingness. The futures market maintained a structure where the near - month contracts were in contango and the far - month contracts were in back. The spot premium continued to rise to 240, and the LME 0 - 3 contango widened to $67/ton. The short - term spot market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. In June 2025, China's copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, hitting a multi - year high for the same period [11]. 3.2 Industry News - In June, the export volume of refined copper rods (>6mm) continued to reach a new high, with stable growth in the Southeast Asian market. The total export volume of refined copper rods with a maximum cross - section >6mm was 9,827.53 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 50.36%. The export volume of refined copper rods with a maximum cross - section >6mm through feed - processing trade in June 2025 was 7,183.14 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.22% and a year - on - year increase of 33.75 times [12]. - Russia's Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) currently expects its copper production this year to be between 343,000 - 355,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate of 353,000 - 373,000 tons. The company's nickel production in the second quarter was 45,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and palladium production was 658,000 ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [12]. - Anglo Asian Mining plc announced that its Demirli copper mine in the Karabakh Economic Region of Azerbaijan has started trial production, and the output is expected to increase by the end of this year. The company expects its copper concentrate output in 2025 to be 4,000 tons, and after 2026, the annual output of the Demirli copper mine will increase to 15,000 tons. The mining life of the mine depends on further geopolitical developments and the mineral resource model [12].

研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 沪铜震荡上涨，虽特朗普考虑打击伊朗带动原油价格大幅上涨，但市场避险情绪 未见明显升温，黄金继续走弱，其他工业品大多上涨；美联储即将公布 6 月的利 率决议，预计将维持利率不变，但在原油价格上涨以及关税问题影响下，也难有 明显的鸽派声明，短期宏观面仍偏弱。现货端，国内升水下滑，仓单流出担忧令 贸易商抢跑，而且铜价上涨、下游需求淡季令盘面月间 back 结构收窄，LME 市场 库存再度转为去库 200 吨，但新加坡仓库继续累 ...