Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Supply -产区雨水偏多至月底,原料价格上涨,短时成本端支撑胶价,中长线供应放量预期仍在;需求 - 半钢胎企业排产稳定,全钢胎企业出货平稳但部分库存攀升;隔夜美联储对12月降息前景偏鹰,胶价短期承压,后续关注主产区旺产期原料产出及宏观变化,若原料上量顺利胶价有下行空间,若不畅预计胶价在15000 - 15500附近运行 [1] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: 云南国富手机胶等部分现货价格有涨跌,如云南国富手机胶涨0.34%,泰标混合胶跌1.32% [1] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 9 - 1价差等有变动,如9 - 1价差涨3.45%,1 - 5价差跌12.50% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: 8月部分国家产量有变化,如泰国产量降0.43%,印度产量涨11.11%;轮胎开工率、产量、出口量及橡胶进口量等有不同表现,如8月国内轮胎产量涨9.10%,9月轮胎出口量降10.65% [1] - **Inventory Change**: 保税区库存等有增减,如保税区库存降1.20%,上期所厂库期货库存涨6.28% [1] Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 本周供应端到港量大增,但下游订单不足,周边港口价格下行,市场承压;盘面价格处相对低位,内外盘价格倒挂形成进口成本支撑,限制下方空间,供需双弱格局下,原木期货盘面预计仍将维持偏弱震荡运行 [3] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: 原木期货部分合约价格下跌,如主力LG2601跌1元/立方米;部分现货价格下降,如江苏4米中A辐射松价格降10元/方 [3] - **Cost**: 人民币兑美元汇率及进口理论成本变化小,分别涨0%和0% [3] - **Supply**: 港口发运量和离港船数增加,如新西兰→中日韩港口发运量涨6.00%,离港船数涨4.55% [3] - **Inventory**: 全国针叶原木总库存减少,日均出库量增加,如库存降2.74%,出库量增2% [3] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;周产高位,刚需过剩,厂家库存转移至中下游;中期下游产能无大幅增量,需求延续刚需格局,供需承压;阶段性利空基本出尽,建议前期空单止盈离场,短期观望,等待反弹空机会 [4] - **Glass**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;前几日玻璃现货产销转暖带动盘面反弹,中下游补库,期现商采购积极;深加工订单季节性好转但仍弱,地产周期底部竣工缩量,行业需产能出清;前期盘面下跌利空基本兑现,建议前期空单离场,关注现货捕捉短多机会 [4] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: 玻璃部分合约价格下跌,如玻璃2505跌2.81%,玻璃2509跌2.21% [4] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: 纯碱部分合约价格下跌,如纯碱2505跌1.71%,纯碱2509跌1.34% [4] - **Supply**: 纯碱开工率和周产量下降,光伏日熔量下降,如纯碱开工率降1.72%,周产量降1.71%,光伏日熔量降0.84% [4] - **Inventory**: 玻璃厂库和纯碱厂库库存增加,纯碱交割库库存减少,如玻璃厂库增4.72%,纯碱厂库增2.54%,纯碱交割库降3.18% [4] - **Real Estate Data**: 新开工面积等有变化,如新开工面积涨幅0.09%,施工面积降2.43% [4] Group 4: Industrial Silicone Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 工业硅现货价格上涨,期货价格先涨后回落;周度供应端产量增加,需求端产量下降或致累库施压价格;华东套利窗口打开或带来套保机会;焦煤价格上涨或带动期价;工业硅供应增加使价格承压,但有成本支撑,预计低位震荡,价格波动区间8500 - 9500元/吨 [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: 华东通氧SI5530等现货价格上涨,如华东通氧SI5530涨1.07%,华东SI4210涨0.52% [5] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 部分合约价差有变动,如2512 - 2601价差涨200.00%,2601 - 2602价差跌66.67% [5] - **Fundamental Data**: 全国和部分地区工业硅产量、开工率有变化,如全国工业硅产量涨9.10%,新疆开工率涨22.09%;有机硅DMC等产量有增减,如有机硅DMC产量降5.78%,再生铝合金产量涨7.48% [5] - **Inventory Change**: 新疆厂库等库存有增减,如新疆厂库库存降0.28%,云南厂库库存涨1.47% [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 多晶硅现货价格小幅下跌,期货价格震荡下跌;供应端11月产量有望下降,周度产量和硅片产量均有3 - 4%降幅;需求端硅片排产增加但下游采购减少,库存增加;多晶硅高位震荡,关注平台公司成立、产量控制及需求端订单情况;期货升水现货均价,继续大幅上涨需关注上游套保套利空间 [7] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: N型复投料平均价等有涨跌,如N型复投料平均价跌0.10%,N型颗粒硅平均价持平 [7] - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: 主力合约等价格和价差有变动,如主力合约跌0.07%,景月 - 连一价差跌16.06% [7] - **Fundamental Data**: 周度和月度多晶硅、硅片产量等有变化,如周度多晶硅产量降4.41%,月度硅片产量涨5.37% [7] - **Inventory Change**: 多晶硅和硅片库存增加,如多晶硅库存涨1.16%,硅片库存涨2.49% [7]

Report Title - PX & PTA & MEG Strategy Report for September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX supply is expected to reach a high level in September, with short - process MX being abundant and new MX production adding to PX output. However, downstream TA maintenance is increasing, and with the continuous compression of TA processing fees, TA devices may have further maintenance. Thus, PX fundamentals are weak, and it may show a weak and volatile trend without significant crude oil fluctuations [150]. - For PTA, although the polyester operating load is rising and the fundamentals are improving, the price performance is weak, and the TA processing fee is still compressed below 200 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is facing challenges, with increasing external tariff risks. The TA price is expected to have support and show an overall volatile trend [150]. - MEG's operating load has climbed to a high level. In September, there are both maintenance and restart of devices. The port inventory is low, and the spot liquidity is tight. With supply contraction and demand increase, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term price may be volatile and strong [150]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX&PTA&MEG Price: Follow Crude Oil Price Oscillation - **Futures Prices**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA futures closing price decreased from 4808 yuan/ton to 4792 yuan/ton (-0.3%), MEG increased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4465 yuan/ton (1.2%), and PX decreased from 6928 yuan/ton to 6886 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: For PTA basis, it changed from - 17 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton (-17.6%); MEG basis changed from 71 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton (-9.9%); PX basis changed from 188 yuan/ton to 97 yuan/ton (-48.6%). The TA - EG spread decreased from 394 yuan/ton to 327 yuan/ton (-17.0%), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 337 yuan/ton to 313 yuan/ton (-7.2%) [16][19][22]. - **International and Domestic Price Differences**: The ethylene glycol price difference between Europe and China increased from 52 dollars/ton to 150 dollars/ton (186.8%) [26]. 2. PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 29, Asian PX operating load was 75.6% (month - on - month increase of 2.7 percentage points), and China's was 83.3% (month - on - month increase of 3.4 percentage points). The 160 - million - ton PX device of Fuhua Group restarted in early September. Multiple new reforming devices are expected to be put into operation starting from August, which may increase PX output [33][58][59]. - **PTA**: As of August 29, PTA operating load was 70.4% (month - on - month decrease of 9.3 percentage points). There were device maintenance and new device production. The autumn maintenance plan is concentrated in September - October [37][60]. - **MEG**: As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 75.13% (month - on - month increase of 5.79%). There are device restart and maintenance plans in September [52][61]. 3. PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Tariff Extension for 90 Days - **Imports and Exports in July 2025**: China's PX imports were 78.20 million tons (month - on - month increase of 2.17%), PTA exports were 37.42 million tons (month - on - month increase of 46.66%), and ethylene glycol imports were 59.14 million tons (month - on - month decrease of 4.27%) [64][65][76]. - **Polyester Exports**: In July 2025, the total polyester export was 120.33 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. Different polyester products had different export trends [75][77]. 4. PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Downstream Finished Product Inventory Rebounds - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [86]. - **MEG**: As of August 25, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 50 million tons, reaching a low level [89]. 5. Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Challenges - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 29, the polyester operating load was 90.3% (month - on - month increase of 2.5%). The inventory days of some polyester products changed, and the cash flow also changed [92]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July, textile and clothing exports faced downward pressure. With the extension of tariffs for 90 days, the export expectation of Chinese textiles and clothing is expected to improve [106][103]. 6. PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA total positions decreased from 1,493,200 lots to 1,360,753 lots, MEG total positions decreased from 357,146 lots to 320,792 lots, and PX total positions increased from 243,421 lots to 289,662 lots [119].