Report Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Plastic, PTA, PVC, and Soda Ash: Bullish trend, with relatively clear long - term trends and current appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pure Benzene, PX, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, and Glass: Short - term long/short trends in a relatively balanced state, with poor current market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Styrene: Bearish trend, with relatively clear short - term trends and current appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: Slightly bullish, with a driving force for price increase, but poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows different trends in various sectors. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, seasonal demand, and geopolitical situations. Investment opportunities and risks coexist in different products [2][3][5] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed up with limited market news, and the overall trading remained stable [2] - PE market may have a slightly weakening trend in the short term due to increased supply and weakened demand [2] - Polypropylene is in a weak position due to reduced demand and increased supply expectations [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded, with PX having more long - term opportunities in the first half of the year, but currently facing weak demand and falling processing margins. PTA is experiencing inventory accumulation, and a 250 - million - ton device shutdown will ease the pressure [3] - Ethylene glycol supply has shrunk, and prices have rebounded. It may improve in the second quarter, but is still under long - term pressure [3] - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak, and prices follow raw materials [3] - Bottle chips' processing margins have recovered, but long - term production capacity pressure remains. Consider positive spread trading opportunities after the Spring Festival [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices have risen, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve after the Spring Festival [5] - Styrene fundamentals may weaken in the short term due to increased supply and decreased demand [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fundamentals are still weak, but short - term prices are affected by geopolitical situations. It may gradually reduce inventory after the Spring Festival [6] - Urea prices are stable, and the market is expected to strengthen after the Spring Festival [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC is expected to rise in price due to cost support and export demand. Consider buying at low prices [7] - Caustic soda is expected to trade around cost due to cost support and downstream negative feedback [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is facing supply - demand surplus pressure in the long term. Consider short - selling on rebounds and holding long - glass and short - soda - ash positions [8] - Glass may experience seasonal inventory accumulation, but the supply - demand pattern may improve. Consider buying at low - valued structural positions [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Urea: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand patterns of various chemical products are affected by factors such as approaching the Spring Festival, production capacity changes, and downstream demand. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, and the market trends vary, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term pressure or improvement expectations [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of acrylonitrile futures declined during the day. Although there is an expected increase in supply, the pre - holiday supply shortage is difficult to reverse. Demand is mainly rational buying. The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures also declined, and as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand support for the market weakens [2] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices fluctuated during the day. PX is recommended for long - position allocation in the first half of the year, but currently, the demand is declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. PTA load increased slightly, and the processing margin declined. Ethylene glycol inventory increased, but the rate of accumulation slowed down. In the second quarter, there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand. Short fiber has a good supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders. Bottle chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene continued to decline, and the spot market trading slowed down. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is expected to improve around the Spring Festival. The main contract of styrene futures declined, and the supply - demand structure will weaken until the Spring Festival, with seasonal inventory accumulation after the festival [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol overseas plant operation rate declined. Coastal demand is weak, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the short term. Domestic production increased, and the main production areas have smooth inventory clearance. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market may slowly reduce inventory. Urea daily production is high, and the market is supported by agricultural and reserve demand. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to increase significantly [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fluctuated slightly. The industry will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthening, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. Caustic soda is running strongly, but the profit is compressed, and there may be supply reduction due to potential maintenance. It is expected to run around the cost [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is running weakly, with increasing inventory and high supply. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Glass futures prices fluctuated upward, with inventory increasing and production capacity compressing. It is recommended to look for low - value buying opportunities [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advisable to wait and see) [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not specified [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chips: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] Report's Core View - The overall chemical market shows different trends and characteristics in various sub - sectors. Some sectors are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and cost changes. For example, before the Spring Festival, the demand in some sectors weakens, while in others, there are still certain supporting factors. The market conditions are complex and require comprehensive consideration of multiple factors for investment decisions [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract first declined and then rose, closing with a long - lower - shadow doji. Although the supply is expected to increase, the pre - holiday supply shortage pattern is difficult to reverse. Demand is mainly from rational buyers, with different attitudes among downstream industries [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: The main contracts closed higher, but the downward trend along the 5 - day moving average continued. As the Spring Festival approaches, factory operations decline, demand weakens, and market trading activities decrease [2] Polyester - PTA: Geopolitical factors push up oil prices, and PTA rebounds. In the first half of the year, with PX capacity increasing and no new PTA capacity, it can be over - allocated. However, current demand is falling, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. The repair of processing margins may lead to more device restarts and put pressure on margins again [3] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory continues to increase due to factors such as device restart, increased production, and weak demand. In the short term, it oscillates within a range. In the second quarter, there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand due to concentrated maintenance and demand recovery, but in the long term, it is still under pressure due to capacity growth [3] - Short - fiber: The load is high, and inventory is low, with a good supply - demand pattern. But downstream orders are weak, and profits are thin. As the Spring Festival approaches, terminal production tends to stagnate, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuations [3] - Bottle chips: Under low load and relatively low inventory, processing margins have been repaired, but long - term capacity pressure still exists. In the short term, it fluctuates with raw materials. In the medium term, pay attention to post - Spring Festival inventory performance and consider positive spread trading opportunities [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The spot price in East China fell, and domestic production increased slightly while imports remained high. The comprehensive utilization rate of downstream production capacity is expected to increase, and port inventory in East China decreased due to pre - holiday stocking. In the short term, the market is affected by cost and demand, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken as supply increases [5] - Styrene: The main futures contract fluctuated narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. As the Spring Festival approaches, the willingness to reduce long positions for profit - taking increases. Domestic production has increased, and there are many uncertainties in the post - Spring Festival supply, which still supports the market [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: Overseas device operation has recovered, and the coastal demand in East China has weakened. Domestic device operation has increased, and pre - holiday inventory is being actively reduced. The port inventory is higher than the same period last year, and the short - term fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to the operation of coastal olefin devices and the actual reduction in imports after the Spring Festival [6] - Urea: The spot price is stable. Domestic production is increasing as gas - based enterprises resume production. There is some agricultural demand, and industrial downstream operation has declined. Production enterprises are slightly reducing inventory. The market is expected to oscillate within a range before the Spring Festival [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC: The futures price declined. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased, and the industry will enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period. The operation rate increased slightly, and it is expected to remain stable. Domestic demand is insufficient as the Spring Festival approaches, while exports continue to be good. With rising costs and export demand, the center of gravity of PVC is expected to rise this year [7] - Caustic soda: It is operating weakly due to downstream production cuts. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, but the price of caustic soda is weak, and profits are compressed. The industry operation fluctuates slightly at a high level, and inventory has decreased but still has pressure. The alumina industry is generally in deficit. Pay attention to downstream capacity changes, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: It is operating weakly. Inventory continues to rise, and the pressure is high. Supply has decreased but is still at a high level. Downstream purchasing sentiment is poor. The rigid demand for heavy soda remains stable. In the short term, pay attention to macro sentiment. In the long term, there is an oversupply pressure, and a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an exit when the price approaches the cost [8] - Glass: The futures price weakened. Inventory increased slightly, and there is inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival. All three fuel - based production lines are in deficit. One production line was ignited recently, and some lines are planned for cold repair. Processing orders are still sluggish. It is expected to oscillate widely due to the game between low valuation and weak reality [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX & PTA: Geopolitical risks disrupt oil price fluctuations on the cost side. Currently, polyester costs are high, and profit distribution has shifted from being concentrated on the PX side to a situation where both PXN and TA processing margins have rebounded to a moderately high level in the past five years. With acceptable processing profits for PX and TA, there are few changes in PX and TA devices. TA overseas devices have maintenance plans in February. China's PX maintains a monthly average of 90%, and domestic TA maintains a monthly average of 77%. On the demand side, with the Spring Festival holiday in February, the weak reality of downstream industries is gradually materializing. Polyester factories, including terminal texturing, weaving, and dyeing factories, will gradually resume work from early to mid - March. According to CCF's assessment, the average operating load of polyester in February can drop to 80 - 82%. Then, in mid - to late March, as the devices restart, the polyester operating load will rebound. Overall, polyester raw materials will enter the inventory accumulation channel in February, and the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure for PX and PTA in February is obvious. In the second quarter, polyester raw materials will undergo spring maintenance, and the polyester restart load will rebound. The far - month fundamentals are expected to be good. It is expected that the market in February will be low at first and then high. Attention should be paid to the risk of less - than - expected demand recovery in the second half of the month and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [144]. - MEG: On the supply side, some overseas devices, including those in Saudi Arabia and Singapore, have restart plans around March. There are few changes in domestic devices in February. Currently, the domestic operating rate of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and port inventories continue to accumulate. On the demand side, with the Spring Festival holiday in February, the weak reality of downstream industries is gradually materializing. Polyester factories, including terminal texturing, weaving, and dyeing factories, will gradually resume work from early to mid - March. According to CCF's assessment, the average operating load of polyester in February can drop to 80 - 82%. Then, in mid - to late March, as the devices restart, the polyester operating load will rebound. Overall, the supply of ethylene glycol increases while the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation expectation in February is strong. The valuation has been repaired, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - side price fluctuations, and the risk of less - than - expected demand recovery in the second half of February [144]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Geopolitical Disturbance of Crude Oil Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of January 30, 2026, the closing prices of PTA, MEG, and PX were 5270 yuan/ton, 3913 yuan/ton, and 7400 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 yuan/ton, + 67 yuan/ton, and - 156 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.2%, 1.7%, and - 2.1% [6]. - **PTA Basis and Spread**: The PTA basis and spread data show certain seasonal characteristics. For example, the basis of TA01, TA05, and TA09 contracts has different trends in different months. The PTA nine - one spread and five - nine spread also show different values in different periods [8][9][10]. - **MEG Basis and Spread**: Similar to PTA, the MEG basis and spread also have seasonal characteristics, and the basis and spread of different contracts (EG01, EG05, EG09) change over time [12]. - **PX Basis**: As of January 30, 2026, the PX basis was 30 yuan/ton, with a change of 162 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of 122.8% [14]. - **TA - EG Spread**: As of January 30, 2026, the TA - EG spread was 1357 yuan/ton, with a change of - 77 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of - 5.4% [16]. - **TA - PX Processing Margin**: As of January 30, 2026, the TA - PX * 0.656 spread was 416 yuan/ton, with a change of 92 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of 28.6% [20]. - **Domestic and Overseas Ethylene Glycol Spread**: As of January 29, 2026, the ethylene glycol spread between Europe and China was 199 US dollars/ton, with a change of - 17 US dollars/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of - 7.8% [23]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Little Change in Devices - **PX**: As of January 30, the Asian PX operating load was 81.5%, with a month - on - month increase of 2 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating load was 89.2%, with a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point. The 800,000 - ton PX device of Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting at the end of January and was expected to produce products soon [33]. - **PTA**: As of January 30, the PTA operating load was 76.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points. Some devices had maintenance plans, such as the 1.25 - million - ton/year device of Ineos, which stopped on January 16 and was expected to restart in March; the 700,000 - ton/year (6) device of CAPCO in Taiwan was planned to be overhauled from February 5 and was expected to last until mid - March; the 225,000 - ton/year (QTA) device of Hanwha in South Korea was shut down for maintenance from January to March [36]. - **MEG**: As of January 30, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 74.27% (a month - on - month increase of 0.95%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 81.02% (a month - on - month increase of 3.74%). Some devices had maintenance or production - transfer plans, such as the 700,000 - ton/year device of Gulei Petrochemical, which would start maintenance in early March and was expected to last for 50 - 60 days; one line of Satellite Petrochemical was planned to stop production and transfer to PE production in mid - to late February, and the recovery time was to be determined [52]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Cancellation of India's BIS Certification - **PX Import**: In December 2025, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 933,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [56]. - **PTA Export**: In December 2025, the PTA export volume was 361,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.3%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 3.82 million tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decline of 13.6% [59]. - **MEG Import**: In December 2025, the ethylene glycol import volume was 835,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.2% and a year - on - year increase of 44.2%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 7.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.8% [63]. - **Polyester Export**: In December 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 1.3074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 32,600 tons [67]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Low Profits and Low Inventories of Downstream Finished Products - **PTA Inventory**: The PTA total inventory is at the bottom. The inventory data of PTA in different aspects, such as total inventory, polyester factory inventory, in - warehouse and in - port inventory, and total warehouse receipts, show certain trends over time [76][77]. - **MEG Inventory**: As of January 26, the ethylene glycol port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 858,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 128,000 tons [79]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Tests - **Domestic Polyester Device Changes**: In January 2026, many polyester devices had maintenance or restart plans, involving different types of products such as short - fiber, long - fiber, and bottle - chip [83]. - **Domestic Polyester - Related Data**: As of January 30, 2026, the polyester operating load was 84.2%, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.2 percentage points. The operating rates of texturing machines, looms, and dyeing factories also decreased to varying degrees. The inventory days and cash - flow data of different polyester products also changed [86]. - **Polyester Demand and Terminal Demand**: Polyester demand shows certain resilience, but terminal demand is declining. The operating rates of polyester, texturing machines, and looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, as well as the sales volume of polyester yarns, show different trends. The inventory of long - fiber and short - fiber products is at a low level, but the terminal digestion ability of the weaving industry is weak, and the export of textiles and clothing in China is also weak [87][101]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Position Situation - **PTA Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2026, the total PTA futures position was 2,186,334 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 335,082 lots and a year - on - year increase of 897,595 lots [114]. - **MEG Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2026, the total MEG futures position was 453,170 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 102,376 lots and a year - on - year increase of 184,266 lots [114]. - **PX Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2026, the total PX futures position was 460,833 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 17,922 lots and a year - on - year increase of 331,416 lots [114].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for bottle-grade PET resin is experiencing a downward trend, with significant fluctuations in prices and a weak overall performance in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply of bottle-grade PET resin has decreased significantly due to production cuts, with recent reductions in output and the introduction of new capacity of 300,000 tons by Fuhai [1] - Demand remains stable but is characterized as a low season, with downstream beverage industry operating at 65-75% capacity and PET sheet industry at 60% [2] - The processing margin is expected to remain low due to an oversupply situation, while absolute prices are anticipated to follow raw material trends [1] Group 2: Price Movements and Market Sentiment - The main contract for bottle-grade PET resin opened at 6,410.00 CNY/ton, with a trading range between 6,216.00 CNY and 6,430.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of 2.99% [1] - Recent trading activity shows mixed price adjustments from bottle-grade PET factories, with prices fluctuating between a decrease of 20 CNY to an increase of 100 CNY [1] - Export prices for bottle-grade PET resin have risen due to increased raw material costs, with negotiations in the range of 850-880 USD/ton FOB Shanghai [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability in the market) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, with a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical futures market is in a complex situation, with different products showing various trends and drivers. Some products are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy, cost, and geopolitical factors. The market is generally in a state of shock, and different products have different investment opportunities and risks [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Both olefin and polyolefin futures contracts closed down in intraday trading. The supply of domestic olefins tightened due to individual plant shutdowns, but weak downstream demand restricted the buying pace. For polyethylene, inventory was smoothly reduced, but the overall downstream operating rate declined slightly, and demand support is expected to weaken. For polypropylene, although there is policy support, demand is weak as downstream factories have completed year - end orders, and the future demand has been pre - consumed [2] 3.2 Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated in the morning and rose rapidly in the afternoon, mainly driven by sentiment due to a rumored unplanned maintenance of a PK plant in the second quarter. Before and after the Spring Festival, demand weakens, and there is limited upward driving force. In the second quarter, there are opportunities for PX processing margin to go long on dips and for positive spreads after the spread narrows, subject to downstream demand. For ethylene glycol, domestic new plants are put into production while overseas plants shut down, with expected supply increase at home and decrease abroad. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future, but the supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter. Short - fiber is mainly driven by cost, and attention should be paid to downstream stocking rhythm around the Spring Festival. Bottle chips' processing margin has recovered, but long - term capacity pressure remains [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures market adjusted in shock, while the spot price continued to rise. Supply decreased due to refinery production cuts and reduced imports, and demand increased, leading to significant inventory reduction at East China ports. The short - term market is expected to be strong in shock. The styrene futures market consolidated in intraday trading. The current supply - demand balance is tight, with limited port arrivals and expected further inventory reduction. Domestic producers' sales are good, and exports provide some support [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market continued to decline. Import arrivals decreased significantly, but demand decreased due to plant shutdowns and reduced loads, and the inventory reduction speed is expected to slow down. Although there is support from the expected significant reduction in imports in the first quarter, the short - term market is expected to be in a stalemate. Urea prices are weakly stable. Daily production has recovered, downstream demand has increased, and production enterprises are reducing inventory. In the short term, the market may decline slightly, but in the long term, it is likely to fluctuate strongly within a range [6] 3.5 Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed an intraday shock trend. The cost pressure of ethylene - based PVC decreased, while that of calcium carbide - based PVC increased. The operating rate of some enterprises decreased, and the export volume was affected by price changes. It is expected that the price center will rise, and the strategy is to go long on dips. Caustic soda continued to be weak, with high inventory pressure. Although the price of liquid chlorine is strong and the integrated profit is acceptable, the industry is generally in a loss, and the future production reduction needs to be continuously monitored [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is operating weakly. Although the weekly inventory has decreased slightly, the overall pressure is still large. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and downstream procurement sentiment is poor. The strategy is to go short on rebounds and wait and see when the price drops near the cost. Glass futures prices have declined. Affected by weather and approaching the holiday, inventory may accumulate. The industry is losing money, but there is a rumor of new production line ignition, and supply may increase slightly. In the long term, the industry needs to reduce capacity. When the futures price drops to around 1000 yuan, there may be a long - buying opportunity [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Styrene: Not specified - Propylene: Not specified - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - PVC: Not specified - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PX: Not specified - PTA: Not specified - Ethylene Glycol: Not specified - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - Glass: Not specified - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows complex trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products face supply shortages, while others are affected by cost, demand, and policy factors [2][3][5] - There are risks such as demand shrinkage due to downstream profit pressure and supply - demand imbalance in the market, and at the same time, there are also potential investment opportunities in some products [2][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined, with tight supply in the short term and limited support from the demand side due to high raw material costs. There is a risk of demand shrinkage [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures were volatile. For polyethylene, inventory was smoothly reduced, but demand support is expected to weaken. For polypropylene, although there is policy support, demand has been pre - consumed, and the upward - driving force for supply - demand fundamentals is insufficient [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rose due to port de - stocking and refinery production cuts. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and strong [3] - Styrene futures rose. The market is in a tight - balance state, with expected port de - stocking, low enterprise inventory, and export support [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are expected to decline due to weak cost support and inventory accumulation. There may be investment opportunities in the second quarter, but it depends on downstream demand [5] - Ethylene glycol is affected by new domestic production and overseas shutdowns. There may be short - term improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventory, but downstream orders are weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip production has decreased, and the processing margin has improved, but there is still long - term capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to decline. Although there is port de - stocking, demand has decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile and stalemate. There is support from reduced imports in the first quarter [6] - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also risen. The short - term market may decline slightly, but it is likely to be strong within a range as agricultural demand starts [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices weakened. Production capacity utilization has declined, and cost has increased. It is expected to reduce production capacity this year, and the price center may rise [7] - Caustic soda is in a weak state, with high inventory pressure. The industry is generally in a loss, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration is expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory pressure is still high, supply pressure is large, and downstream demand is weak. A high - short strategy is recommended [8] - Glass prices declined due to ignition plans. The industry is de - stocking, but there may be an increase in supply. The order situation is poor, and there may be seasonal inventory accumulation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side of PX, PTA, and MEG has more disturbances, and polyester prices fluctuate following the cost. The game between the downward feedback from downstream and the expected improvement remains the focus of market contradictions. For PX, beware of the real - world situation dragging it down; for PTA, it is expected to decline; for MEG, it is expected to fluctuate after a rebound [2][155]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Follow Crude Oil Price Fluctuations, Geopolitical Factors Affect Crude Oil Price - **Futures Price**: From November 28, 2025, to December 30, 2025, the PTA closing price increased from 4700 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, a rise of 9.4%; the MEG closing price decreased from 3885 yuan/ton to 3847 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.0%; the PX closing price increased from 6830 yuan/ton to 7316 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.1% [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The PTA, MEG, and PX basis and spreads have changed to varying degrees. For example, the PTA basis decreased from - 37 yuan/ton to - 46 yuan/ton, a decline of 24.3% [15]. - **Price Differences**: The TA - EG spread widened significantly, with a change value of 482 yuan/ton and a rise of 59.1%. The TA - PX * 0.656 spread also increased, with a change value of 97 yuan/ton and a rise of 44.2%. There were also changes in the price differences between raw materials such as PX - crude oil, PX - MX, etc. [18][22]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Maintenance - **PX**: As of December 26, 2025, the Asian PX operating rate was 79.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating rate was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. A 70 - ton PX device in the Northeast is restarting, and its capacity will expand to 1 million tons/year after restart [36]. - **PTA**: As of December 26, 2025, the PTA operating rate was 72.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. Multiple PTA devices have restarted, such as the 55 - ton PTA device of FCFC in Taiwan and the 1.2 - million - ton PTA device of Zhongtai Petrochemical [38]. - **MEG**: As of December 26, 2025, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.32% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%), and the operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 77.28% (a month - on - month increase of 4.52%). Multiple MEG devices in Taiwan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have planned maintenance [52]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: India's BIS Certification Cancelled - **PX**: In November 2025, the total import volume of PX in mainland China was about 817,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% [60]. - **PTA**: In November 2025, the PTA import volume was 300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 89.94%; the export volume was 358,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.93%. The cumulative export volume from January to November 2025 was 3.4553 million tons, close to the full - year level in 2023 [65]. - **MEG**: In November 2025, the import volume of ethylene glycol was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 6.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [68]. - **Polyester**: In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 1.2948 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 96,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons [73]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Downstream Finished - Product Inventory Reduction - **PTA**: The total PTA inventory is at the bottom. - **MEG**: On December 29, 2025, the inventory of MEG in some main ports in East China was about 730,000 tons [85]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Challenges - **Domestic Polyester Device Changes**: As of December 31, 2025, the total planned reduction of three major polyester filament factories was about 2.819 million tons. Multiple devices are planned to be shut down for maintenance, and some devices have restarted [87]. - **Domestic Polyester - Related Data**: The operating rates of polyester, texturing machines, looms, etc. have decreased to varying degrees, and the inventory days and cash flows of some products have also changed [88]. - **Terminal Demand**: Terminal demand has declined, such as the decline in textile and clothing exports. From January to November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 1.9%, and in November, it decreased by 5.1% [105]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **PTA**: As of December 30, 2025, the total PTA position was 1,890,052 lots, showing a month - on - month and year - on - year increase [120]. - **MEG**: As of December 30, 2025, the total MEG position was 341,247 lots, showing a month - on - month decrease and a year - on - year slight decrease [120]. - **PX**: As of December 30, 2025, the total PX position was 458,083 lots, showing a month - on - month and year - on - year increase [120].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polyolefins, Styrene, PTA, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Urea, PVC, and Glass are rated ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Pure Benzene is rated ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Ethylene Glycol is rated ☆☆☆, meaning a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Caustic Soda is rated ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Soda Ash is rated ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. Report's Core View - In the chemical industry, different products present diverse market conditions. Some products have positive short - term trends but face long - term supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as weather, downstream demand, and production capacity changes [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose slightly. Supply is increasing, but lower prices led to better low - price sales. Polyolefins futures also rose slightly. Polyethylene has inventory pressure, and polypropylene's supply is still ample despite some improvement in the packaging sector [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebounded slightly. Its weekly production decreased, and port inventory declined, but high import expectations and poor downstream profits weakened the outlook. Styrene futures rose slightly but remained below the 5 - day moving average, with sufficient supply and weak demand [3]. Polyester - PX's strong supply - demand expectations weakened, but an oil price rebound drove up PX and PTA prices. PTA's profitability is poor. Ethylene glycol prices fell, with weak expectations. Short - fiber new capacity is limited, and demand is improving. Bottle - chip production was affected by typhoons, but long - term over - capacity is a concern [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol stopped falling. Port unloading was slow, and MTO plant operations increased, leading to port de - stocking. However, high port inventory limited price increases. Urea prices rose, but supply still exceeded demand, and the export window is closing [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC's supply - demand is loose, with high inventory. It may show a weak and volatile trend. Caustic soda has a weak current situation but strong future expectations, and the 2510 - 2601 spread may widen [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose with glass. Soda ash production is expected to increase, and long - term supply is excessive. Glass prices rose due to industry meetings and planned price hikes. In the short - term, it may be strong, but long - term trends depend on capacity reduction [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of olefins - polyolefins is polarized, with tight supply of propylene and stable supply of polyolefins. Market performance varies due to different demand situations [2] - The price of pure benzene is weakly operating, but there may be improvements in the third - quarter supply - demand situation. The price of styrene has certain support [3] - In the polyester industry, PX and PTA prices are related, and the demand for polyester products shows a positive trend, but there are also issues such as high inventory [5] - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, while the urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - The PVC market is under supply pressure and may decline, and the caustic soda market will likely fluctuate widely [7] - The soda ash market may be short - sold at high prices, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate widely [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand. Polyolefin futures are in a low - level range, with stable supply but slow demand growth [2] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene fluctuates above 6000 yuan/ton, with increasing supply and demand, and a weak price due to factors such as poor downstream profitability. The price of styrene has certain support due to device maintenance [3] Polyester - PX price rebounds, PTA follows up slightly, and the demand for polyester products is improving, but there are issues such as high inventory. Ethylene glycol has a strong basis, and short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, with port inventory accumulation and expected demand improvement. The urea market is expected to remain weak due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC has supply pressure and may decline due to new device production. Caustic soda has a differentiated performance in different regions and is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply is slightly reduced, and the market may be short - sold at high prices. Glass production capacity is increasing slightly, and the price may fluctuate widely [8]