Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polyolefins, Styrene, PTA, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Urea, PVC, and Glass are rated ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Pure Benzene is rated ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Ethylene Glycol is rated ☆☆☆, meaning a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Caustic Soda is rated ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Soda Ash is rated ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. Report's Core View - In the chemical industry, different products present diverse market conditions. Some products have positive short - term trends but face long - term supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as weather, downstream demand, and production capacity changes [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose slightly. Supply is increasing, but lower prices led to better low - price sales. Polyolefins futures also rose slightly. Polyethylene has inventory pressure, and polypropylene's supply is still ample despite some improvement in the packaging sector [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebounded slightly. Its weekly production decreased, and port inventory declined, but high import expectations and poor downstream profits weakened the outlook. Styrene futures rose slightly but remained below the 5 - day moving average, with sufficient supply and weak demand [3]. Polyester - PX's strong supply - demand expectations weakened, but an oil price rebound drove up PX and PTA prices. PTA's profitability is poor. Ethylene glycol prices fell, with weak expectations. Short - fiber new capacity is limited, and demand is improving. Bottle - chip production was affected by typhoons, but long - term over - capacity is a concern [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol stopped falling. Port unloading was slow, and MTO plant operations increased, leading to port de - stocking. However, high port inventory limited price increases. Urea prices rose, but supply still exceeded demand, and the export window is closing [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC's supply - demand is loose, with high inventory. It may show a weak and volatile trend. Caustic soda has a weak current situation but strong future expectations, and the 2510 - 2601 spread may widen [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose with glass. Soda ash production is expected to increase, and long - term supply is excessive. Glass prices rose due to industry meetings and planned price hikes. In the short - term, it may be strong, but long - term trends depend on capacity reduction [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of olefins - polyolefins is polarized, with tight supply of propylene and stable supply of polyolefins. Market performance varies due to different demand situations [2] - The price of pure benzene is weakly operating, but there may be improvements in the third - quarter supply - demand situation. The price of styrene has certain support [3] - In the polyester industry, PX and PTA prices are related, and the demand for polyester products shows a positive trend, but there are also issues such as high inventory [5] - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, while the urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - The PVC market is under supply pressure and may decline, and the caustic soda market will likely fluctuate widely [7] - The soda ash market may be short - sold at high prices, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate widely [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand. Polyolefin futures are in a low - level range, with stable supply but slow demand growth [2] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene fluctuates above 6000 yuan/ton, with increasing supply and demand, and a weak price due to factors such as poor downstream profitability. The price of styrene has certain support due to device maintenance [3] Polyester - PX price rebounds, PTA follows up slightly, and the demand for polyester products is improving, but there are issues such as high inventory. Ethylene glycol has a strong basis, and short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, with port inventory accumulation and expected demand improvement. The urea market is expected to remain weak due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC has supply pressure and may decline due to new device production. Caustic soda has a differentiated performance in different regions and is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply is slightly reduced, and the market may be short - sold at high prices. Glass production capacity is increasing slightly, and the price may fluctuate widely [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak with differentiation. Polyester factories' bids increased. The mainstream spot basis today is at 01 - 51. The PTA device maintenance effect was less than expected, the spot market liquidity was okay, the spot basis weakened, and the price fluctuated following the cost side. Although the processing margin improved slightly from the low point, it remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - The spot price is 4700, the 01 - contract basis is - 32, and the futures price is at a premium, which is neutral. The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a 0.1 - day increase compared to the previous period, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. MEG - On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol (MEG) was consolidating at a low level, and the market negotiation was okay. The intraday MEG futures were weakly consolidating. The spot negotiation was traded at a premium of 86 - 92 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Some contract merchants and suppliers participated in restocking, and the spot basis moderately strengthened at the end of the session. In terms of US dollars, the overseas MEG price was consolidating at a low level. The early - morning negotiation price for near - term shipments was around 524 - 525 US dollars/ton, and the afternoon negotiation price dropped to around 520 - 522 US dollars/ton. The 9 - end - of - September shipments were traded at around 519 - 523 US dollars/ton, and some financing merchants participated in inquiries [7]. - The spot price is 4434, the 01 - contract basis is 103, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish. The total inventory in East China is 40.63 tons, a 9.42 - ton decrease compared to the previous period, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The arrival volume in early September is still moderately low, and there is still some room for a moderate decline in ports in the short term. In terms of demand, it is expected that the average load in September can reach 91.5%. The rigid demand support is gradually improving. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the MEG futures have been under pressure. It is expected that the price of MEG will mainly consolidate within a range in the short term, with strong support at the bottom. Subsequent attention should be paid to device changes and polyester load changes [7][8]. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: In August, some PTA devices were scheduled for maintenance, improving supply - demand expectations. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has shown some expectations for demand recovery. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device had an unscheduled shutdown [11]. - Bearish factors: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [10]. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. For the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found. 2. Daily Tips - No relevant content found. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content found. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity has been increasing. Supply and demand have shown certain fluctuations. For example, in 2025, the production capacity increased from 9172 in September to 9472 in November. The supply - demand gap also changed accordingly, with a 1.6% gap in September 2025 and a - 22.1% gap in October [12]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of MEG have also changed. The supply - demand relationship has also been adjusted. For example, in 2025, the total supply in September was 234, and the supply - demand gap was 2 [13]. Price - Related Data - There are data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, and inventory. There are also data on PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads, such as the TA - EG spot spread and p - xylene processing margin [15][18][22][23][29][32][39]. Inventory Analysis - There are data on PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [41][42][43][46]. Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - There are data on the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain [52][56]. Profit - Related Data - There are data on PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods, and production margins of polyester fibers [61][62][65].

Report Title - PX & PTA & MEG Strategy Report for September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX supply is expected to reach a high level in September, with short - process MX being abundant and new MX production adding to PX output. However, downstream TA maintenance is increasing, and with the continuous compression of TA processing fees, TA devices may have further maintenance. Thus, PX fundamentals are weak, and it may show a weak and volatile trend without significant crude oil fluctuations [150]. - For PTA, although the polyester operating load is rising and the fundamentals are improving, the price performance is weak, and the TA processing fee is still compressed below 200 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is facing challenges, with increasing external tariff risks. The TA price is expected to have support and show an overall volatile trend [150]. - MEG's operating load has climbed to a high level. In September, there are both maintenance and restart of devices. The port inventory is low, and the spot liquidity is tight. With supply contraction and demand increase, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term price may be volatile and strong [150]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX&PTA&MEG Price: Follow Crude Oil Price Oscillation - **Futures Prices**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA futures closing price decreased from 4808 yuan/ton to 4792 yuan/ton (-0.3%), MEG increased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4465 yuan/ton (1.2%), and PX decreased from 6928 yuan/ton to 6886 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: For PTA basis, it changed from - 17 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton (-17.6%); MEG basis changed from 71 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton (-9.9%); PX basis changed from 188 yuan/ton to 97 yuan/ton (-48.6%). The TA - EG spread decreased from 394 yuan/ton to 327 yuan/ton (-17.0%), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 337 yuan/ton to 313 yuan/ton (-7.2%) [16][19][22]. - **International and Domestic Price Differences**: The ethylene glycol price difference between Europe and China increased from 52 dollars/ton to 150 dollars/ton (186.8%) [26]. 2. PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 29, Asian PX operating load was 75.6% (month - on - month increase of 2.7 percentage points), and China's was 83.3% (month - on - month increase of 3.4 percentage points). The 160 - million - ton PX device of Fuhua Group restarted in early September. Multiple new reforming devices are expected to be put into operation starting from August, which may increase PX output [33][58][59]. - **PTA**: As of August 29, PTA operating load was 70.4% (month - on - month decrease of 9.3 percentage points). There were device maintenance and new device production. The autumn maintenance plan is concentrated in September - October [37][60]. - **MEG**: As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 75.13% (month - on - month increase of 5.79%). There are device restart and maintenance plans in September [52][61]. 3. PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Tariff Extension for 90 Days - **Imports and Exports in July 2025**: China's PX imports were 78.20 million tons (month - on - month increase of 2.17%), PTA exports were 37.42 million tons (month - on - month increase of 46.66%), and ethylene glycol imports were 59.14 million tons (month - on - month decrease of 4.27%) [64][65][76]. - **Polyester Exports**: In July 2025, the total polyester export was 120.33 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. Different polyester products had different export trends [75][77]. 4. PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Downstream Finished Product Inventory Rebounds - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [86]. - **MEG**: As of August 25, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 50 million tons, reaching a low level [89]. 5. Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Challenges - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 29, the polyester operating load was 90.3% (month - on - month increase of 2.5%). The inventory days of some polyester products changed, and the cash flow also changed [92]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July, textile and clothing exports faced downward pressure. With the extension of tariffs for 90 days, the export expectation of Chinese textiles and clothing is expected to improve [106][103]. 6. PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA total positions decreased from 1,493,200 lots to 1,360,753 lots, MEG total positions decreased from 357,146 lots to 320,792 lots, and PX total positions increased from 243,421 lots to 289,662 lots [119].