Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The disk oscillated and declined, with the basis at -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread at 193 (+31), and 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). [1] - The conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, the US terminal operation is at full capacity, and the inventory in April still has support, but the subsequent supply shortage may become more prominent. [1] - There may be measures to ensure people's livelihood in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low, and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high. [1] - The valuation of the PG 5 - 6 month spread is not low, and short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, so it is recommended to wait and see. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Market - On March 31, the PG2605 contract closed at 6339 (-267) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 139 (-31) and 0 warehouse receipts (-1300). The night session closed at 6501 (+162), with a 5 - 6 month spread of 166 (+27). [1] - Constrained by the successive decline of the related oil product market, the refinery's willingness to support the market is not strong. Shandong civil gas was at 6370 (-81), Shandong ether - post at 6510 (-40), Shandong propane at 6807 (-25), and Longkou Port propane at 7500 (+0). [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The basis was -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread was 193 (+31), and there were 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). Shandong civil gas was at 6100 (+110), East China civil gas at 7065 (+876), and South China civil gas at 7205 (+905). [1] - The FEI month spread was 104 US dollars (-8), the oil - gas ratio oscillated, and the internal and external PG - FEI c2 reached 156 (+13). The South China CP propane arrival discount was 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -122 (-46). [1] - Propane import profit increased significantly. The spot profit of Chinese PDH - made propylene weakened to 734 (-611); the paper goods of PDH - made PP in East and South China oscillated significantly. [1] - The port inventory ratio was 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume was 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity utilization was 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release was 51.78 tons (-3.36%). [1] - The PDH operating rate was 63.6% (-2.03pct); the utilization rate of alkylated oil production capacity was 38.6% (+0pct); the MTBE operating rate was 67.3% (+0.76pct); the MTBE export order was 0 tons (-4.5). [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For methanol, in the short - term, due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict, international supply reduction expectations are prolonged, import volume may decline in March and April, and with downstream demand remaining stable, it may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, after geopolitical disturbances subside, it may correct, but if inventory reduction exceeds expectations, it has the basis for a stable rise [26]. - For plastics, in the short - term, rising oil prices and geopolitical conflicts affect supply, while demand is in a full - recovery stage, so it may oscillate at a high level with high uncertainty. In the long - term, demand and inventory situations are favorable, but terminal demand is weak and high production may limit the upside [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price - The price of MA2605 futures rose from 2586 yuan/ton on March 6th to 2805 yuan/ton on March 13th, a rise of 8.47%. The MA basis rose from - 56 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, a rise of 135.71%. The price of methanol (Taicang) increased from 2530 yuan/ton to 2825 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.66%. The methanol CFR increased from 297.2 dollars/ton to 324.67 dollars/ton, a rise of 9.24% [2]. Supply - As of March 12th, the domestic methanol operating rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared to the previous period. The production was 2.0138 million tons, a decrease of 3610 tons or 0.18% compared to the previous period. This week, the extended Zhongmei plant was under maintenance with a loss of 1.8 million tons/year of production capacity, and the Guangju New Material plant resumed production with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year. Next week, some plants are expected to resume production with a total capacity of 1.05 million tons/year, which may increase the operating rate [9]. Demand - As of March 12th, the olefin operating rate remained stable at 84.08%. The gross profit was - 810.33 yuan/ton, a 18.49% increase compared to the previous period. If the gross profit continues to rise, it may promote the resumption of olefin production [12]. Inventory - As of March 11th, the port inventory was 1.3128 million tons, a decrease of 130,600 tons or 9.05% compared to the previous period. The inland inventory was 523,200 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 5.13% compared to the previous period. The port inventory decreased significantly, and the inventory pressure was relieved [14]. Plastics Price - The price of L2605 futures rose from 7691 yuan/ton on March 6th to 8416 yuan/ton on March 13th, a rise of 9.43%. The L basis rose from - 261 yuan/ton to - 166 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.40%. The LLDPE price increased from 7430 yuan/ton to 8250 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.04%. The HDPE price increased from 7950 yuan/ton to 8450 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.29%. The LDPE price increased from 10400 yuan/ton to 10550 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.44% [2]. Supply - As of March 12th, the domestic plastic operating rate was 82.39%, a decrease of 4.52 percentage points compared to the previous period. The production was 683,200 tons, a decrease of 37,500 tons or 5.2% compared to the previous period. This week, some plants were under maintenance with a loss of about 1.11 million tons/year of production capacity, and some plants resumed production with a total capacity of about 450,000 tons/year. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline next week [17]. Demand - As of March 12th, the downstream operating rate was 33.83%, an increase of 5.21 percentage points compared to the previous period. The recovery of packaging film and agricultural film is relatively fast, and the demand side provides stable support [21]. Inventory - As of March 11th, the social inventory was 662,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.56% compared to the previous period. The inventory of two major oil companies was 505,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons or 11.73% compared to the previous period. The inventory structure continues to diverge [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Soda Ash**: The current week's soda ash开工率 is 85.04%, up 0.32% from the previous week; the产量 is 79.09 tons, up 0.28 tons; the重质产量 is 42.3 tons, up 0.32 tons; the轻质产量 is 36.79 tons, down 0.04 tons [1] - **Float Glass**: The开工率 remains unchanged at 70.610%; the产线条数 is 209, unchanged; the产量 is 103.8365 tons, up 0.24 tons [1] Inventory - **Soda Ash**: The厂内库存 is 189.44 tons, up 30.64 tons; the重质库存 is 89.59 tons, up 13.95 tons; the轻质库存 is 99.85 tons, up 16.69 tons; the库存可用天数 is 14.26 days, up 1.09 days [1] - **Float Glass**: The库存 is 7600.8 (unit not clear, assumed to be relevant unit), up 2065.6; the库存可用天数 is 33.8 days, up 9.4 days [1] Profit - **Soda Ash**: The天然气利润 is -142.26, up 24.29; the氨碱法毛利 is -90.15, down 0.9; the联产法毛利 is -1.5, up 31 [1] - **Float Glass**: The石油焦利润 remains at 43.93; the煤制气利润 is -30.79, down 1.92 [1] Basis & Spread - **Soda Ash**: The基差 is -40, up 10; the 1 - 5价差 is -109, up 1 [1] - **Float Glass**: The基差 is -31, up 30; the 1 - 5价差 is -159, down 4 [1] - **Arbitrage**: The纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 83, up 21; the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 133, up 26 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have seen a certain increase and factored in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap from Iran remains, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [3]. - For methanol, the downward momentum persists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main strategy is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so it is recommended to short - allocate [9]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive corporate profit is at a neutral level, the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the only short - term support is the short - term rush for exports due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, it is advisable to gradually take profits [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an upward - trending crude oil price. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from the historical high of warehouse receipts has eased. The supply in the first half of 2026 is relatively stable, and the demand is in the off - season [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the demand is seasonally volatile. In the context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [30]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand for polyester and chemical fibers is expected to recover as it exits the off - season. The inventory - building cycle is about to end, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory building and high operation. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of a rebound [35]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 6.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.23%, at 483.60 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products: high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.81%, at 2987.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 4.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.12%, at 3460.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 15.99 million barrels to 435.80 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.81%; SPR replenishment was 0.00 million barrels to 415.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.01 million barrels to 254.83 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; diesel inventories increased by 0.25 million barrels to 120.35 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels to 42.34 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 37 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 20 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 37.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by (55.00) yuan/ton, at 2210 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 72 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 30 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 2 yuan/ton, at 1836 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - allocate [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber futures increased in volume and price, with a bullish technical pattern. Thai natural rubber spot prices generally followed the increase, but the spot price increases of butadiene and butadiene rubber were relatively small. Bulls and bears presented different views. Bulls were optimistic due to macro - level expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 44.24%, 16.70 percentage points lower than the previous week and 18.19 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 62.47%, 10.95 percentage points lower than the previous week and 11.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the Spring Festival [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 108 yuan, at 4855 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 175 (+ 68) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 137 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (- 50) yuan/ton, ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 631 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 13%, a month - on - month decrease of 28.5%. The in - factory inventory was 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), and the social inventory was 125.4 tons (+ 2.7) [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market [18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6108 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 44 yuan/ton, narrowing by 22 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton; the basis was - 86 yuan/ton, weakening by 1 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.125 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products in the demand side was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%. The PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%; the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%; the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, gradually take profits [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, strengthening by 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons, and the inventory of traders was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, narrowing by 11 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an upward - trending crude oil price. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from the historical high of warehouse receipts has eased. The supply in the first half of 2026 is relatively stable, and the demand is in the off - season [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was 45 yuan/ton, strengthening by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons, the inventory of traders was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was - 7 yuan/ton, narrowing by 73 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 17 yuan/ton, widening by 10 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the demand is seasonally volatile. In the context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 50 yuan, at 7382 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 2 US dollars, at 931 US dollars. The basis was 47 yuan (+ 56) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 5 - 7 spread was - 12 yuan (- 14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the Asian load was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In terms of equipment, there were few domestic changes. The maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed, and Zhejiang Petrochemical planned to shut down one production line for maintenance in March. Overseas, a plant in Kuwait restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of equipment, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit was restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a year - on - year increase of 12.4 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 313 US dollars (- 7), South Korean PX - MX was 158 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 US dollars (+ 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 52 yuan, at 5260 yuan. The East China spot price fell 50 yuan, at 5235 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 10 yuan (- 24). The PTA load was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of equipment, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit was restarted. The downstream load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%. In terms of equipment, multiple units of Xin Fengming were under maintenance, a 25 - ton bottle chip unit in East China was under maintenance, and multiple units of filament and staple fiber were restarted. The terminal texturing load increased by 3% to 8%, and the loom load increased by 12% to 12%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 24 was 250.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.9 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee fell 54 yuan to 362 yuan, and the disk processing fee fell 20 yuan to 417 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term,

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, the downward momentum remains, but the downside space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips from a mid - term perspective [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Considering the expected improvement in production at the end of January, it is advisable to short - allocate [7]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. Consider opening new positions or holding existing positions for the hedge strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it. Pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from warehouse receipts has eased. The supply side has limited support, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - season [21]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The cost side may see a reduction in supply surplus, and the supply pressure has eased. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [24]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the trend of crude oil [27]. - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is expected to pick up. The stockpiling cycle is about to end. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and there is pressure on port stockpiling. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction. There is a risk of a rebound in valuation [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 1.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.33%, at 488.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil main futures: high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 10.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%, at 2943.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 41.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.18%, at 3436.00 yuan/ton. In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 1.91 million barrels to 9.89 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 23.99%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 3.03 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 9.12%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.76 million barrels to 7.63 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 9.07%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.85 million barrels to 20.55 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4.30% [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 6 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 20.00 yuan/ton, at 2249 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 82 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum of methanol remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downside space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips from a mid - term perspective [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 40 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 30 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 30 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 30 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 17 yuan/ton, at 1838 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Considering the expected improvement in production at the end of January, it is advisable to short - allocate [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: On the first trading day after the holiday, rubber futures saw a significant increase in positions and prices, with a bullish technical pattern. Thai natural rubber spot prices generally increased, but the spot prices of butadiene and butadiene rubber increased less. Bulls are optimistic due to macro expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.24%, 16.70 percentage points lower than the previous week and 18.19 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 62.47%, 10.95 percentage points lower than the previous week and 11.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 86.4 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The total social inventory of light rubber in China was 43.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The inventory in Qingdao area increased by 1.81 tons to 60.93 tons, with an accelerating inventory accumulation rhythm [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. Consider opening new positions or holding existing positions for the hedge strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 15 yuan, at 4963 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 243 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 131 (- 7) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2300 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 629 (+ 11) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 13%, a month - on - month decrease of 28.5%. The in - plant inventory was 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), and the social inventory was 125.4 tons (+ 2.7) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the reduction in supply is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in an off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax - rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term support for the fundamentals. The cost - side calcium carbide price has decreased, and the caustic soda price has rebounded. Overall, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market, the domestic demand is poor, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The fundamentals are poor. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support PVC. As the industry enters a very low - profit range, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side East China pure benzene price was 6108 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 6152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the styrene active contract was 7578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The basis was - 86 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB units was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.125 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products on the demand side was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%. The PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%. The EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%. The ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have both decreased, and the basis has weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The cost - side pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from a low level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation on the supply side has decreased, and the styrene operating rate has fluctuated at a low level. The styrene port inventory has continued to increase. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of three S products on the demand side has fluctuated and increased. The pure benzene port inventory has decreased from a high level, and the styrene port inventory has continued to decrease. At present, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6777 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6635 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was - 215 yuan/ton, a weakening of 9 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons. The trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has decreased. OPEC+ has announced plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The polyethylene spot price has not changed, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a historical high, reducing the pressure on the disk. On the supply side, only one BASF plant has been put into operation in the first half of 2026, and the coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, providing support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films on the demand side may reach its peak, and the overall operating rate has fluctuated downward [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6735 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was 15 yuan/ton, a weakening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons. The trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons. The port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was 57 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 23 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventories will slightly decrease, and the supply surplus may ease. On the supply side, there are no capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, reducing the pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high. When the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year, the disk price may bottom out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 46 yuan, at 7432 yuan. The PX CFR fell 4 US dollars, at 929 US dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (+ 4) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 5 - 7 spread was 2 yuan (- 14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%; the Asian load was 83.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. Regarding the equipment, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its load. The PTA load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8%. Regarding the equipment, Dushan Energy was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a year - on - year increase of 12.4 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 320 US dollars (+ 14), the South Korean PX - MX was 152 US dollars (+ 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 93 US dollars (- 4) [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains at a high level, and there are many maintenance activities for downstream PTA, with a relatively low overall load center. It is expected that PX will maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation center has risen, and the short - process profit is also high. However, overall, the supply - demand structure of PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and the mid - term outlook is good. The repair of PTA processing fees has also further expanded the PXN space. For the subsequent valuation to rise further, it is necessary for the downstream polyester start - up and raw material equipment maintenance efforts after the Spring Festival to meet expectations. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the trend of crude oil in the mid - term [2

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. Given the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, previous short positions should take profits, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so short positions on rallies are recommended [8]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity reduction expectations, and export rush support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually liquidated [21]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate is declining [24]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period of history. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips after the Spring Festival [30]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of rebound [35]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 0.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.19%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.83 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 10.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 1843 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 63 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. Bulls were optimistic due to macro, seasonal, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.94%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.42% [11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 52 yuan to 4938 yuan. The overall operating rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3%. The downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a decrease of 3.3%. Factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China rose 87.5 yuan/ton to 6103 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 150 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 10.86 million tons [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6787 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6585 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 37.97 million tons [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 1.49 million tons to 41.58 million tons [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 62 yuan to 7202 yuan. China's PX load was 92%, an increase of 2.5%. Asian load was 83.7%, an increase of 1.3%. In early February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 17.5 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year - on - year [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 40 yuan to 5220 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 25 yuan to 5205 yuan. The PTA load was 74.8%, a decrease of 2.8%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 232.6 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan to 3723 yuan. The spot price in East China fell 13 yuan to 3639 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.8%, an increase of 0.7%. Port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 93.5 million tons [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current prices have factored in a high geopolitical premium. Given the potential over - expected production increase in Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, it is recommended to take profits on previous short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, and avoid holding single - sided positions during the festival. Consider holding a long NR main contract and short RU2609 contract for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support the price, the weak fundamentals may affect the industry pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so it is advisable to gradually take profits [19]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and the overall demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to be supported by the significant reduction of coal - based inventory [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, the short - term situation is stable. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil prices after the Spring Festival [28]. - For PTA, it is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing inventory accumulation and high production pressure. Although there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to geopolitical and cost factors, the supply - demand situation needs to be improved through increased production cuts [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures rose 4.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.91%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, rose 39.00 yuan/ton, or 1.38%, to 2,860.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%, to 3,357.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while those in Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract changed by 14.00 yuan/ton to 2,248 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hubei remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12 yuan/ton to 1,797 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. The bulls were optimistic about the market due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than the previous week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than the previous week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 million tons, a 0.9 - million - ton increase from the previous month, or 0.7%. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, a 1.88% increase [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 19 yuan to 4,990 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,750 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 240 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (+4) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2,550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 590 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method at 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 million tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 million tons (+2.1) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6,103 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6,124 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase, and the pure benzene basis was - 21.5 yuan/ton, a 2.5 - yuan/ton reduction. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7,550 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan/ton decrease, and the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,497 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 53 yuan/ton, a 174 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a 12.5 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a 44.125 - yuan/ton decrease. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton reduction. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, a 0.80 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase, the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,787 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,585 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan/ton decrease. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a 102 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 million tons, a 5.67 - million - ton increase from the previous period, and the trader inventory was 2.32 million tons, a 0.23 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton expansion [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,693 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton increase from the previous period, the trader inventory was 18.32 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 million tons, a 0.03 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton expansion, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton reduction [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7,264 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 8 US dollars to 917 US dollars. The basis was - 39 yuan (- 8) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 114 yuan (- 26). The PX operating rate in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and Fujian United Petrochemical's operating rate fluctuated. The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 175,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of February, a 30,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 billion tons, a 190 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 297 US dollars (- 5), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 US dollars (+15) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 30 yuan to 5,260 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 40 yuan to 5,180 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 2.326 billion tons, a 210 - million - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 1 yuan to 365 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 16 yuan to 420 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 31 yuan to 3,764 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 3,652 yuan. The basis was - 114 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan (- 2). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, with the syngas - based method at 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based method at 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short term, Guanghui restarted, and Sinochem reduced production due to an accident. In the oil - chemical sector, Zhongke Refining & Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Satellite switched production after shutting down. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 restarted. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 181,000 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure volume on February 10 was 12,400 tons. The port inventory was 935,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 1,312 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 24 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 580 yuan [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic pure benzene supply - demand is expected to remain in a slightly loose balance. The cost side shows that the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran has sent new signals of tension, leading to a recent strong fluctuation in WTI and Brent oil prices. The daily range of BZ2603 is expected to be around 5870 - 6140 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract is 6034 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the settlement price is 6027 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. The trading volume is 21,732 lots, down 516 lots; the open interest is 19,243 lots, down 3065 lots. The mainstream market prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 6035 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), 6120 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), 6150 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6066 yuan/ton (down 73 yuan) respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream market prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 6225 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan) and 6050 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 762 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 763.92 US dollars/ton, down 2.91 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 72.26 US dollars/barrel, up 0.87 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 597.88 US dollars/ton, down 4.75 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 75.4%, up 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output is 44.31 million tons, up 1.41 million tons. The terminal inventory of pure benzene at ports is 30.5 million tons, unchanged. The production cost of pure benzene is 5331.4 yuan/ton, up 185.4 yuan; the production profit is 647 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工 rate of styrene is 69.96%, up 0.68 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 73.16%, down 0.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 86%, down 2.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 89.04%, up 0.51 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 69.1%, up 0.6 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 30th to February 5th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased 2.40% to 75.40% week - on - week, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased 0.21% to 56.47% week - on - week. - From January 31st to February 6th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased 0.02% to 74.95% week - on - week. - As of February 9th, the inventory of pure benzene at ports in East China was 29.7 million tons, up 0.34% from last week. - From January 30th to February 5th, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased 114 yuan/ton to 647 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended. The PTA processing fee above 450 should be shorted on rallies. The PX supply increases with rising开工率, and the PXN processing fee is compressed. [6] - PTA has limited downside space, and the spread is bearish. The PTA processing fee above 450 should be shorted on rallies. The terminal demand has some positive factors, and the polyester开工率 is expected to recover. The PTA supply remains stable, and there is a cumulative inventory pattern in January - February. [7] - MEG has a large supply pressure, and a reverse spread strategy for basis and spread is recommended. The supply is increasing, but the demand from polyester is weak, leading to large inventory accumulation in February and difficult inventory digestion after the holiday. [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract is 7262, up 62 (0.86%). The PX5 - 9 spread is 14, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR China price is 898, up 5.33. The PX - naphtha spread is 288.08, down 16. [4] - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract is 5166, up 22 (0.43%). The PTA5 - 9 spread is 8, up 12 from the previous day. The East China price is 5090, down 25. The PTA processing fee is 428.01, up 15. [4] - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG main contract is 3743, down 2 (-0.05%). The MEG5 - 9 spread is - 114, down 2 from the previous day. The spot price is 3630, down 12. [4] - **PF**: The closing price of the PF main contract is 6578, up 14 (0.21%). The PF3 - 4 spread is - 80, unchanged from the previous day. [4] - **SC**: The closing price of the SC main contract is 469.8, up 2.6 (0.56%). The SC2 - 3 spread is 0, up 7.5 from the previous day. [4] Fundamental Data - **MEG**: A 850,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia plans to shut down for maintenance from March to April for 1 - 2 months. The restart time of a 380,000 - ton/year plant in Saudi Arabia is to be determined. The MEG装置开工率 has risen to 76.22% (+1.85%). [5][8] - **Polyester**: The polyester maintenance volume in January and February is 9.11 million tons and 6.81 million tons respectively, with a total of about 15.92 million tons. A 200,000 - ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in March. The polyester开工率 is expected to be 80.5% in February and recover to 91% in March. [5][7] - **PX**: The domestic PX开工率 is 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian装置开工率 is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA开工率 remains at 77.6% (+1%). [6] - **PTA**: The PTA开工率 remains at 77.6%. New Fengming's 2.5 - million - ton plant is under maintenance in February, and there is a cumulative inventory pattern in January - February. [7]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is experiencing fluctuations in inventory levels and pricing, with potential implications for processing profits and demand in the polyester sector. Group 1: Market Data - PTA factory inventory stands at 3.74 days, an increase of 0.16 days from last week and 0.08 days from the same period last year [1] - On February 4, the spot price of PTA in East China was reported at 5150 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day, marking a daily increase of 1.28% [1] - Over the past week, PTA prices in East China have decreased by 100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.90%, while over the past month, prices have increased by 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.39% [1] - PTA operating rates remain stable at 76.6%, with a 1 million ton PTA plant in Southwest China preparing to restart operations after maintenance [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Maike Futures, both PX and PTA processing profits are at relatively high levels, but short-term expectations for production changes are limited, providing support for PX profits [2] - The polyester and downstream sectors are currently in a demand off-season, leading to a continuous decline in operating rates, which may result in further inventory accumulation for PTA and compression of processing profits [2] - Donghai Futures notes that the polyester sector is experiencing negative feedback, with stable PTA positions and a gradual reduction in capital holdings, indicating a weakening upward drive [3] - A further reduction in downstream operating rates and sustained production cuts are expected to lower PTA purchasing demand, leading to a slow decline in basis and potential price corrections [3]