马孔多下雨了。 ——加西亚·马尔克斯《百年孤独》 这段时间，美国强掳马杜罗并宣称"接管"委内瑞拉的事件震惊了全世界。 这起堪称魔幻的事件给我的感觉是"马孔多又下雨了"。 01 读过马尔克斯《百年孤独》的朋友都知道，马孔多 在书中是一个地名。最初布恩迪亚家族为了躲避仇家游魂的纠缠，带领一众逃避现实的年轻人离开原 来的村子，翻山越岭去寻找大海，结果大海没找到，就在一个地方停下来开辟村庄，并把村庄取名为"马孔多"。 马孔多真的是与世隔绝——东边是无法逾越的山脉；向南是广阔的大草原， 连一生都在游荡的吉卜赛人也说没见过它的边界；西边是广袤无垠的水面； 北面是潮湿幽暗的丛林，丛林外面还是海。 图源：美剧《百年孤独》 表面上看这是一个虚构出来的地方，但其实这就是马 尔克斯所在的哥伦比亚以及整个拉丁美洲在地理上的"孤独"状况，他们的发展也被孤立在世界文明 之外，再加上殖民时代欧洲殖民者的刻意分割，让拉美从一开始就埋下了封闭的种子。 书中有一段话说："世界上正在发生着不可思议的事情，就在那边，在河的另一边，各种魔法机器应有尽有，而我们却还像驴子一样生活。" 布恩迪亚家族七代人就在这样一个小镇中发生着种种魔幻故事，在这些故事里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical and economic context of Brazil, particularly focusing on the automotive industry and the impact of government policies on industrialization and economic cycles. It highlights the challenges and opportunities faced by Brazil in its quest for sustainable development and industrial growth, especially in the context of electric vehicles and renewable energy [4][22]. Group 1: Historical Context of Brazil's Economy - Brazil's historical wealth has been cyclical, with periods of prosperity followed by decline, often linked to resource exploitation and economic dependency on single commodities [5][6]. - The industrialization policies initiated in the mid-20th century, particularly under President Juscelino Kubitschek, led to significant growth in the automotive sector, with major companies establishing factories in São Paulo [7][10]. - The automotive industry played a crucial role in Brazil's industrial development, with local production and assembly of global car models, such as the Santana, which was produced in multiple countries [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Challenges and Policy Shifts - The 1980s marked a significant downturn for Brazil, characterized by hyperinflation and economic mismanagement, which disrupted industrial growth and led to a decline in manufacturing's share of GDP [11][12]. - The introduction of the Real Plan in 1993 aimed to stabilize the economy, but the subsequent opening of markets exposed local industries to international competition, leading to further challenges for domestic manufacturing [11][12][19]. - The automotive sector faced difficulties as foreign brands dominated the market, and local manufacturers struggled with high costs and low-quality components, resulting in a decline in competitiveness [19][22]. Group 3: Current Developments and Future Prospects - The Brazilian government is now focusing on a new industrial strategy, "Brazil New Industry," which aims to promote sustainable and digital industries, including a significant push for electric vehicles [22][24]. - BYD's establishment of a new factory in Brazil is seen as a pivotal move, providing thousands of jobs and contributing to the local economy while aligning with the government's green energy initiatives [24][22]. - The government's "Mover" plan aims to provide substantial tax incentives for the automotive industry, particularly for electric vehicle infrastructure, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable industrial model [22][24].

Group 1 - The conference titled "Global South and Southeast Asia" focuses on economic cooperation among Global South countries, exemplified by the BRICS group, which Indonesia has recently joined, although its cooperation direction remains unclear [2][3] - The essence of the Global South is structural poverty, which is evident in Indonesia and China, both considered poor countries despite their natural resource wealth [4][5] - In 2022, Indonesia's GDP per capita was $5,000, significantly lower than the U.S. at $76,000, highlighting the disparity in wealth and economic development [5][6] Group 2 - The historical context of Indonesia's poverty is rooted in nearly 300 years of colonial rule, which stunted its industrial development and left it with a lack of capital and manufacturing capabilities [8][10] - The legacy of colonialism has resulted in Indonesia being burdened with debt and lacking a modern industrial base, which has perpetuated its economic struggles [12][14] - The nationalization of Dutch enterprises post-independence did not lead to effective management or industrial growth, as the new leadership was often inexperienced or corrupt [16][18] Group 3 - Indonesia's economic strategy has been characterized by reliance on low productivity technologies, with over 90% of workers in small enterprises, and 80% earning below the official minimum wage [21][22] - The country has struggled with a lack of investment in production capabilities, with per capita investment in production materials being significantly lower than in countries like the U.S. and China [23][24] - The need for a balanced approach between the production of goods and the necessary production materials is emphasized, as Indonesia continues to depend on imports for essential production inputs [22][26] Group 4 - The future of Indonesia's economy hinges on its ability to develop specific production capabilities while navigating a global market dominated by imperialist structures [26][27] - Cooperation among Global South countries is increasingly seen as vital for economic planning and reducing dependency on Global North nations [27][28] - The political landscape in Global South countries, particularly regarding who controls economic power, is crucial for achieving meaningful change and cooperation [28]