作为一个曾为世界贡献了鹞式战机的国家，今天英国已无法独立制造一架完整的现代战斗机。 这不仅是航空工业的困境，也是英国高端制造、传统产业乃至新兴领域竞争力整体下滑的缩影。 《星船知造》本文想讨论的是，以英国工业衰退为例，可以清晰看到：新全球化时代下，食利国家正在经历的、向自身真实水平的均值回归。 英国昔日的工业强盛，其根基并非来自胼手胝足、共建家园的集体奋斗。而更多依赖于从殖民历史到金融霸权所构建的全球寻租体系。 当各阶层普遍沉醉于依赖寻租的发展模式所带来的巨额利润与体面——工业衰落的种子就一并种下。 这种建立在非洲和东印度累累白骨之上的"体面"，又常与英伦风情、绅士风度等符号绑定，被包装成一种高级文化商品行销世界。赢两次。 它从根本上削弱了一个国家投身长期艰苦建设的意愿与能力。 当国家的财富积累并非源于实干与创造，衰退的种子就在工业体系里生根发芽。 结出的恶果已在今天英国工业各领域加速显现。 工业的衰退又必然伴随着产业的自主可控、国家战略的独立与完整，也一并悄然旁落。 大国就在不知不觉中丧失了主导自身命运的能力。 《星船知造》在《欧洲，又一个寒冷的暖冬》中写过—— 为了补上自俄罗斯管道输入的能源缺口，英国和欧 ...

Core Points - The EU and the US have reached a new trade agreement aimed at avoiding a larger trade war, with the EU committing to stop importing Russian oil and gas in exchange for reduced US tariffs [1][3] - The EU plans to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US over the next three years, diversifying its energy sources and enhancing energy security [1][4] - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on US imports from the EU, but certain categories will have zero tariffs, which has raised concerns among some European officials about the balance of the deal [4][5] Group 1 - The EU will completely abandon imports of Russian oil and gas, opting instead to purchase American energy, which is expected to contribute to European energy security [1] - The EU's energy purchases from the US will include liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear fuel, with a clear goal to eliminate reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 [1][3] - The agreement is seen as beneficial primarily to the US, with critics arguing it could lead to deindustrialization in Europe and increased energy costs [3][4] Group 2 - The deal is expected to result in an additional $600 billion investment from the EU into the US, which some European officials view as detrimental to local employment and industry [4][5] - The agreement has faced criticism for being unbalanced, with concerns that it mirrors previous US trade tactics that pressured other nations [4][5] - European leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement, viewing it as a capitulation to US interests at the expense of European economic strength [5]

Core Viewpoint - The United States must lead in robotics technology during the AI era to avoid being overwhelmed by China's advancements in this field, as emphasized by Marc Andreessen at the Reagan Economic Forum [1][3]. Historical Context - The discussion references the "American System" proposed by Alexander Hamilton, which aimed to transform the U.S. from an agrarian economy to an industrialized one, a vision that ultimately prevailed in the 19th century [3][4]. - The late 19th century marked the peak of the Second Industrial Revolution in the U.S., establishing it as a global industrial superpower, with significant advancements in infrastructure and technology [4][5]. Economic Trajectory - From 1870 to 1920, the U.S. economy experienced rapid industrialization, growing at three times the current rate, while the period from 1920 to 1970 saw a slower growth rate of about twice the current pace [5][7]. - Since 1971, the U.S. has entered a low-growth phase, characterized by a decline in both GDP growth and productivity, which is linked to a deliberate shift towards deindustrialization and a service-oriented economy [5][7]. Societal Implications - The transition to a knowledge economy has exacerbated the divide between urban and rural areas, leading to a sense of disenfranchisement in rural communities and contributing to the rise of populism [7][8]. - Urban dysfunction is highlighted, with examples of political candidates proposing radical changes in response to the challenges posed by deindustrialization and financialization [8].

Group 1 - The core issue discussed in the recent US-China leadership call is the trade and technology disputes, particularly focusing on China's control over rare earth exports [1] - US Treasury Secretary labeled China as an "unreliable partner" due to its restrictions on rare earth exports, claiming that China had previously intended to supply the US but has now withheld it [1] - US Secretary of State expressed outrage over China's "monopoly" on rare earths over the past 25-30 years, accusing China of deceitful practices to achieve global dominance [3] Group 2 - Historically, the US has abundant rare earth resources but outsourced the "dirty work" of mining and processing to China due to environmental regulations and cost concerns [5] - China invested significantly over three decades to develop its rare earth industry into a global leader, while the US focused on deindustrialization and financial markets [5][7] - The US faces challenges in re-establishing its rare earth supply chain, including high costs, long timelines, and a lack of technical expertise [7] Group 3 - The US's realization of the importance of rare earths came only after imposing sanctions on China regarding chips and technology, highlighting a lack of foresight in its industrial strategy [8] - The current geopolitical negotiations will depend on what concessions the US is willing to make in areas such as tariffs and technology exports in exchange for rare earth access [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe economic challenges faced by Germany due to U.S. trade policies, particularly the impact of tariffs and the restructuring of global supply chains, leading to a significant decline in industrial performance while financial institutions thrive amidst the turmoil [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact on Germany - 28.3% of German companies are experiencing strategic confusion, a 14% increase from three months prior, marking the worst record since the pandemic [1]. - 45% of automotive manufacturers and 43% of electronics firms are trapped in a "forecast black hole," with major companies like Volkswagen and Bosch halting €30 billion battery factory investments [1][3]. - The logistics costs have surged by 23% due to a deteriorating railway network, with a 68% delay rate on high-speed trains between Munich and Berlin [5]. Group 2: Structural Challenges - Germany's fiber optic coverage is only one-third of the EU average, and the progress on 5G base station construction lags behind Poland, hindering digital transformation in manufacturing [5]. - The bureaucratic inefficiencies are highlighted by a 120-day process for business registration and a 398-day approval process for construction permits, ranking Germany among the lowest in administrative efficiency [5]. - Political paralysis has led to a €600 billion infrastructure gap, exacerbated by prolonged disputes over fiscal policies within the coalition government [5]. Group 3: Financial Sector Performance - Deutsche Bank reported a net profit of €1.78 billion in the first quarter, benefiting from increased demand for foreign exchange hedging, with revenues from this segment rising by 210% [3][5]. - The underwriting volume for government and corporate bonds has surpassed €1 trillion, with each 1% increase in interest rates generating an additional €2.3 billion in profit [5]. - The bank has established €35 billion in short positions on German industrial stocks, targeting sectors adversely affected by tariffs [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Dynamics - The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act has intensified the siphoning effect on German industries, leading to the closure of BASF's ammonia plant in Ludwigshafen and the relocation of 12,000 high-paying jobs to Texas [3]. - The article highlights the shift in global economic order, with Germany becoming increasingly dependent on U.S. energy and technology, raising concerns about its status as an economic vassal state [7]. - The EU's leadership vacuum is evident as 26 countries oppose anti-dumping investigations against Chinese solar products, indicating a weakening of the Franco-German axis [7]. Group 5: Opportunities in China - The Chinese market is emerging as a crucial lifeline for German industry, with Volkswagen relying on China for 38% of its global sales, offsetting a 12% decline in North American sales [9]. - Collaborations between companies like CATL and BASF in solid-state battery development are seen as a way to overcome U.S. patent restrictions [9]. - The share of trade settled in renminbi has risen to 29%, indicating a move towards de-dollarization in Sino-German trade [9].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential reduction of tariffs on China by the U.S. government, suggesting a shift towards a more conciliatory approach [1][4][21] - It highlights the historical context of U.S.-China relations, particularly referencing past conflicts and the lessons learned from them, such as the significance of the "Water Gate Bridge" during the Korean War [11][13][27] - The article emphasizes China's industrial and technological advancements, contrasting them with the U.S.'s deindustrialization and reliance on financial gains, which has weakened its economic position [5][20][21] Group 2 - The narrative suggests that the current economic conflict is not just about trade but also about historical grievances and future global power dynamics [2][25][27] - It points out that many countries are increasingly supportive of China's stance against U.S. hegemony, indicating a shift in global sentiment towards a more equitable world order [23][25] - The article concludes that China's firm stance in the face of U.S. tariff threats is rooted in historical experiences and a desire for a fairer future, rather than mere economic competition [27][25][21]

工业化关乎效率，再工业化关乎公平。 特约作者丨王汉洋 快九十岁的宾州老人 Ed Pany 总是和来访者从 1950 年代初开始讲起：精神失常的日本见习僧人烧毁了金阁寺、艾森豪威尔以国防名义建立连接全美的高速公 路网络、苏联则拉开了太空竞赛的大幕。不过外部世界纷纷扰扰都与正在上中学的 Ed 没有关系。 Ed 只关心他能不能多干点、再多干点、多给一些水泥口袋封口。Ed 贫穷的父亲从即将解体的奥匈帝国来到了美国，落地在宾夕法尼亚州北安普顿。到 Ed 出 生时，家里情况开始逐渐稳定，不过依然需要每个人都尽早工作。 正准备上中学的 Ed 并不讨厌工作，相反他迫不及待。伴随着二战结束，美国蒸蒸日上的经济也为每个人提供了机会。Ed 来到了家边的水泥厂，负责把铁丝套 在麻袋然后用机器把铁丝缠绕上去封口。一套、一钩、一拉，几分钱就到手了。 手捧水泥袋的 Ed Ed 就这样一直干到了 16 岁上大学，他依靠自己用缠水泥袋子挣的钱，付了学费。一个人，靠水泥袋子挣出了自己的学费，这在今天听起来像是天方夜谭。Ed 也知道这点，所以他才会在博物馆里，给所有访客讲述这个过去的故事。一个比房子、车和狗更令人激动的美国梦。 这个博物馆几乎是靠 ...