经常有人把委内瑞拉的衰退，怪罪于查韦斯上台后搞社会主义。 如果先天不足，后天再怎么努力，也很难。 委内瑞拉的石油，就是一个先天不足的资源。 提到石油富国，大家第一时间想到的肯定是沙特、阿联酋这些中东国家——靠卖石油赚得盆满钵满，国民福利好到让人羡慕。 可很少有人知道，全球已探明石油储量第一的国家，并不是中东的任何一个国家，而是南美洲的委内瑞拉。 我每次看到委内瑞拉的现状都觉得惋惜：明明手握全世界最丰厚的石油资源，却没能像中东国家那样靠油致富，反而长期陷入经济困境，老百姓 连基本的生活保障都成问题。 据Statista统计，委内瑞拉有约3000多亿桶的石油储备，占该资源全球总量的近五分之一。委内瑞拉的石油储量不仅多于石油王国沙 特，还差不多能达到美国的6.7倍。 这种"捧着金饭碗要饭，捧着油碗做饥民"的反差，背后藏着太多值得深思的道理。 今天就用通俗易懂的话，把委内瑞拉富不起来的核心原因说透，不管是想了解国际局势，还是关注资源与发展的关系，都能从中找到启发。 一、省流核心梳理：委内瑞拉的"资源困局" 第一，核心反差，委内瑞拉是全球石油储量第一大国，却长期陷入经济贫困，与中东石油富国形成鲜明对比； 第二，核心短板 ...

查韦斯对此充满底气，称其为"让民众共享财富、改写国家命运的惠民计划"。 他还炒作此前西方资本垄断委内瑞拉石油产业的旧事，愤慨称"外部势力是否仍在暗中阻挠本国石油资 源的自主开发"。 他进一步宣称，委内瑞拉石油储量超3000亿桶居全球首位，就此并强调："在依托石油发展经济的过程 中，如何平衡福利支出与产业升级？" 委内瑞拉石油公司（PDVSA）负责人回应称，这是关乎国计民生的核心问题，让石油财富真正转化为 民生福祉至关重要。 他还称，PDVSA在石油勘探与开采领域长期发挥主导作用，与政府各部门保持紧密协作，例如通过技 术革新和产能优化获得的成果，会及时转化为惠民政策，覆盖包括底层民众在内的全体国民。 关于石油产业布局，他称"已构建起从开采到出口的完整链条"，并表态"今后将持续强化产业竞争力， 确保国家经济稳定运行"。 对此，查韦斯还提出要求，"石油公司与政府部门之间需建立更高效的协作机制。希望稳步推进改革， 为民众的幸福生活尽责"。 2014年起，国际油价断崖式下跌，从每桶100美元以上跌至不足30美元。委内瑞拉政府发布数据称，石 油出口收入占国家财政比重超95%，油价暴跌直接导致财政收入锐减。此前该国已连续多 ...

满载原油的巨轮静静趴在港口，如同搁浅的鲸鱼；地下的"黑金"宝藏无人开采，地面上油库的警报却因爆满而长鸣。这就是当下全球石油储量第一国家—— 委内瑞拉的荒诞现实。 最近国际政治舞台突发巨震，再次将全世界的目光拉向了南美洲的委内瑞拉。这个国家最引人注目的标签，除了政局，便是它脚下深埋的、超过3000亿桶的 已探明石油储量，这个数字占全球总量的约17%，稳居世界第一。 讽刺的是，与这份惊人的天赋形成残酷对比的，是它目前陷入的绝境：石油出口几乎降至零，国内油库和停泊在港口的油轮里，滞销的原油超过1700万桶。 总统马杜罗被带走后，美国宣布将深度介入其石油产业。这个被誉为"浮在油海上的国家"，其石油开采到底是不是一个无法挽救的"烂摊子"？今天，我们就 来深入剖析。 要理解今天这个"烂摊子"的规模，得先看看它曾经有多辉煌。时间倒回二十世纪70年代，委内瑞拉日产原油可达350万桶，占全球产量的约7%，是其不折不 扣的经济支柱。 然而，本世纪以来，这幅繁荣图景急转直下。长期的美国经济制裁、国内投资严重不足、基础设施老旧失修等多重因素叠加，导致其产量断崖式下跌。到了 2025年11月，其日产量已萎缩至约110万桶，出口约95万 ...

"拉丁美洲的历史，是一切巨大然而徒劳的奋斗的总结，是一幕幕事先注定要被人遗忘的戏剧的总和。"加西亚·马尔克斯在《百年孤独》中写下的这句判 词，在近日的国际新闻中迎来了它最新、却也最古老的一幕。 美国总统特朗普在"空军一号"上向随行记者宣称，委内瑞拉是一个"死掉的国家"，而美国"正在掌权"。他直言不讳的目标是"全面获取委内瑞拉的石油及其 他资源"。当地时间1月4日，他还将矛头指向古巴、哥伦比亚、墨西哥，展现出对拉美地区前所未有的强硬姿态。 这一现代强权政治的直白宣言，与马尔克斯笔下那个关于徒劳与遗忘的百年寓言，在历史的这一刻猛烈碰撞，并与委内瑞拉一个世纪前就已开启的宿命轮 回呼应——当1914年马拉开波湖畔的第一口油井喷涌出"黑色黄金"时，这个国家便踏上了一条充满荣耀与诅咒的征途。它既带来了前所未有的财富，也让 整个民族陷入了资源魔咒的漫长轮回。马尔克斯笔下那个"注定被遗忘"的预言，正在这片蕴藏着全球最丰富石油资源的土地上，缓缓展开它复杂而悲怆的 叙事。 委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔钞票因大幅贬值，被穷人用来做成包 01 资源的幻象：石油财富下的结构性陷阱 委内瑞拉的经济命运与石油价格的绑定，是一个贯穿其20世纪至今的深刻 ...

Group 1: Venezuela's Economic Decline - Venezuela has transitioned from a prosperous nation to one of the most severe economic downturns globally, with 86% of its population living in poverty and a GDP contraction exceeding 70% since 1999 [1][3] - The country experienced hyperinflation, peaking at 10 million percent in 2019, leading to a situation where citizens used money as toilet paper rather than for purchases [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. has engaged in aggressive actions in Venezuela, viewing it as a strategic move in a broader geopolitical game, particularly concerning oil and resources [2][7] - The U.S. has signaled a new Monroe Doctrine, indicating that its interests in the Western Hemisphere will not be limited to Venezuela alone, suggesting a potential escalation in regional conflicts [8] Group 3: Commodity Market Reactions - The recent geopolitical tensions are expected to impact commodity markets, particularly gold and silver, with significant sell-offs anticipated due to rebalancing in the Bloomberg Commodity Index [10][12] - Analysts predict substantial sell-offs in precious metals, estimating around $3.8 billion in total for gold and silver due to market adjustments [11][12]

（来源：中国改革报） 转自：中国改革报 同时，作为经济增长的投入要素和约束因素的人口、资源和环境变量，其与经济增长相生相克的双向互 动关系，一直是经济增长理论和发展经济学的重要研究内容，产生人口红利、资源诅咒、环境库兹涅茨 曲线等一系列具有重要理论意义和现实意义的经典议题。"可持续增长+结构变迁=经济发展"，而"经济 发展+人口资源环境协调=可持续发展"，中国式现代化就是以人为本、资源节约、环境友好并且对未来 负责、向世界开放的可持续发展过程和可持续发展结果。 提倡人口消极作用而悲观预测经济增长趋势的马尔萨斯主义，提倡人口积极作用而乐观预测经济增长趋 势的反马尔萨斯主义，二者对立的理论观点和政策主张可以分别用人口论与人手论来形象概括。工业革 命后的西方经济成长史证伪了马尔萨斯主义的人口论，而开放以来的中国经济发展经验也未证实反马尔 萨斯主义的人手论。与人口红利或人口诅咒相比，社会主义市场经济制度、开放的国际经济环境以及灵 活审慎的宏观经济政策，对中国经济发展发挥着更为重要的决定性作用。通过普及高等教育提升年轻人 口的受教育水平，开发中老年人口在知识经济时代的脑力劳动优势，按照国际优质劳动力的25岁下限来 全新 ...

加盟，正困住川菜品牌化？！ 如果问中国第一大菜系是谁，多数人可能会脱口而出"川菜"。它遍布全国，是国民餐桌的"最大公约数"。 但提及知名的川菜连锁品牌，答案却略显尴尬，不仅新川菜品牌屈指可数，就连四川本土诞生、在全国叫得上名号的川菜品牌，亦是少之又少。多数也只 是昙花一现，三五年便销声匿迹。 这背后，是四川本土"加盟快招"模式对川菜生态的深度腐蚀——它将餐饮创业简化成一场追求短期现金流的速成游戏，而非一场关于川菜长期价值的深 耕。 而其根源，或许深埋于四川本土餐饮的路径依赖与经营困境之中。 1 模式依赖： 川菜难做，80%餐饮人倾向于轻赛道 "一菜一格，百菜百味。" 这是英国美食家扶霞·邓洛普三十几年前来到四川后，对川菜产生的更为直观的印象。 群山环绕的盆地气候，让四川宛如一座天然的餐饮乌托邦，这里不仅有成都二荆条辣椒，南充冬菜、九尺鹅肠等优质食材，更坐拥花椒、辣椒、郫县豆瓣 等调味宝库。 得天独厚的物产，也滋养出上千道川菜与小吃的味觉谱系——麻婆豆腐、回锅肉、水煮肉片、酸菜鱼、钵钵鸡、甜皮鸭……每一个，都足以让人"垂涎三 尺"。 正因如此，在上世纪90年代那场波澜壮阔的"出川"浪潮中，川菜馆得以迅速在全国开 ...

Core Viewpoint - Legal experts warn that foreign mining companies are extracting Liberia's mineral resources at very low returns due to significant loopholes in laws and agreements, leading to potential revenue losses amounting to billions of dollars for the country [1] Group 1: Revenue and Contributions - Mittal Liberia generated over $1.2 billion in revenue from 2009 to 2022, with the government receiving only $138 million, approximately 11% of the total [1] - B2Gold exported gold worth $576 million, contributing only 26.12% to national revenue [1] Group 2: Root Causes - The issues stem from unfavorable terms in concession agreements, lack of robust regulations in areas like carbon credits, weak oversight of A/B class mining licenses, and insufficient accountability of the judicial system towards multinational companies [1] Group 3: Historical Context and Recommendations - Liberia has been trapped in a "resource curse" cycle since the 1950s, exporting raw materials while profits flow out, leaving local communities without benefits [1] - Experts urge the legal community to take immediate action to address these loopholes, renegotiate agreements, and ensure at least 20% local ownership and value localization to reverse the ongoing extraction of mineral wealth and the country's poverty [1]

Core Viewpoint - The KAMOA copper smelting project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, constructed by China Chemical Engineering Sixth Construction Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Six Chemical"), represents Africa's largest copper smelting facility and aims to break the "resource curse" faced by many African nations by transforming abundant natural resources into economic development [3][4][21]. Group 1: Project Overview - The KAMOA project is located in central Africa, specifically in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has proven copper reserves of 75 million tons, accounting for 15% of the world's total [3][4]. - The project is designed to achieve an annual production capacity of 2 million tons of cathode copper, with the Congolese government as one of the investors [4]. - The construction period lasted 18 months, achieving a high-speed completion rate compared to similar projects, with a focus on zero accidents and high quality [5][7]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The project faced significant logistical challenges, including material shortages, high cross-border costs, and complex customs procedures, which were addressed by establishing a comprehensive procurement and transportation system [8][10]. - During the rainy season, the project team implemented a scientific construction plan to mitigate delays caused by severe weather, showcasing their adaptability and commitment to maintaining progress [10][12]. Group 3: Cultural Integration and Teamwork - To overcome language barriers and cultural differences, the project team conducted language training and engaged in cultural exchange activities, fostering a collaborative environment among Chinese and local workers [12][21]. - The strong team cohesion and shared mission to create a benchmark project in Africa were highlighted as key factors in the project's success [12][20]. Group 4: Technological and Manufacturing Excellence - The KAMOA project features a fully operational oxygen station, with all 134 pieces of equipment sourced from Chinese manufacturers, demonstrating the maturity of China's equipment manufacturing industry [13][16]. - The project employed a cost-effective and efficient construction approach, utilizing a "batch delivery and centralized hoisting" method to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [15][16]. Group 5: Economic Impact and Future Prospects - The KAMOA project has stimulated local industries, including raw material supply and logistics, while creating hundreds of jobs and providing ongoing employment opportunities during its operational phase [21]. - Six Chemical aims to leverage this project as a model for future international endeavors, focusing on local employee training, technology transfer, and sustainable development to enhance the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative [20][21].

Core Insights - Venezuela possesses the largest oil reserves globally, totaling 303.2 billion barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia's reserves by 36.2 billion barrels. However, despite this wealth, the country faces severe economic challenges, including a staggering inflation rate of 130,060% in 2018 and a significant drop in per capita GDP, which evaporated by $10,000 over five years [1][12]. Oil Quality and Extraction Challenges - While Venezuela's oil reserves are vast, the quality is poor, with 74% of the reserves being extra-heavy crude oil located in the Orinoco Belt. This type of oil is difficult to refine and process [3][5]. - The API gravity index, which measures oil quality, indicates that Venezuelan oil has an API of only 8 to 12, making it nearly immobile and requiring high extraction costs of $16.5 to $23.5 per barrel, with total costs potentially reaching $50 to $60 per barrel [5][7]. Production Decline and Economic Impact - Venezuela's oil production has drastically declined from 1.9 million barrels per day in 2015 to just 350,000 barrels per day in 2020, with a slight recovery to 1.048 million barrels per day by March 2025. This represents only 1% of the global daily production of 100 million barrels [10][20]. - The country's oil industry has suffered from a lack of investment and maintenance, leading to outdated facilities and low recovery rates, with some fields achieving less than 20% recovery compared to Saudi Arabia's 70% [8][10]. Government Policies and Economic Mismanagement - The Venezuelan government has historically mismanaged the oil sector, using the state-owned PDVSA as a cash cow without reinvesting in infrastructure or technology. This has led to a significant talent drain, with over 6 million Venezuelans, including many oil professionals, leaving the country between 2014 and 2020 [10][12]. - The government's monetary policy, characterized by excessive money printing to cover fiscal deficits, has resulted in hyperinflation and a devaluation of the currency, further exacerbating the economic crisis [12][13]. Sanctions and Market Dependency - U.S. sanctions have severely restricted Venezuela's ability to trade oil, particularly with American markets, leading to a significant drop in oil exports. In 2025, sanctions intensified, resulting in a 120,000-barrel decrease in exports compared to the previous year [14][16]. - China has become Venezuela's largest oil importer, with daily imports reaching 584,000 barrels in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.21%. However, this dependency on China is precarious, as falling oil prices could lead to further financial losses for Venezuela [16][18]. Economic Viability and Future Outlook - Despite efforts to maintain oil production above 850,000 barrels per day, this volume is insufficient to support a population of 28 million, compounded by heavy external debt and ongoing U.S. sanctions, leaving the economy on the brink of collapse [20].