国庆中秋长假期间，国际金价大幅度上涨。10月7日(北京时间)，受美元疲软、地缘争端等因素影响， COMEX黄金期货日内最高报价强势突破4000美元/盎司；10月8日，伦敦金跟随突破4000美元/盎司。黄 金跻身全球最赚钱的大类资产之一。 高盛认为，近期金价上涨主要反映了三大"坚定买方"加大购买黄金：快速增长的西方ETF(交易型开放式 指数基金)仓位、各国央行可能重新加速购买以及投机仓位的提升。高盛最新报告指出，新兴市场央行 将持续通过增持黄金实现外汇储备的结构性多元化，预计2025年和2026年新兴市场央行黄金净购买量将 分别平均达到80吨和70吨。基于这一趋势，高盛将2026年12月黄金价格预测从4300美元/盎司上调至 4900美元/盎司。 回顾过去30多年的金融市场主要资产走势，就会发现一个"有趣"现象——1990年以来，截至今年9月 底，黄金价格累计涨幅(866.87%)大幅跑赢WTI原油期货(172.74%)、LME铜期货(336.94%)与CBOT大豆 期货(-21.69%)。若将投资时间进一步拉长至1970年代布雷顿森林体系(二战后以美元为中心的国际货币 体系)瓦解起，截至今年9月底，黄金价格累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with both London gold and COMEX gold reaching historical highs, driven by various macroeconomic factors and trends in the market [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On September 3, London gold reached a peak of $3546.9 per ounce, surpassing the critical $3500 level, while COMEX gold hit $3616.9 per ounce, marking a historical high [1]. - The surge in gold prices has led to a corresponding increase in gold-related ETFs, with 13 commodity gold ETFs and 4 stock gold ETFs reported in the market [1]. Group 2: ETF Performance - As of September 3, all gold ETFs have shown an annual return of approximately 30%, while gold stock ETFs have exceeded 60%, with the highest performer, Yongying Gold Stock ETF, rising about 69% year-to-date [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Several fund companies anticipate that factors such as the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and the global trend of de-dollarization will provide support for gold prices in the medium to long term [1]. - However, there is a caution regarding the impact of stablecoin development on the credibility of the US dollar, which could influence gold prices [1].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with spot gold hitting $3546.9 per ounce and COMEX gold touching $3616.9 per ounce, driven by various macroeconomic factors [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 3, spot gold prices reached $3546.9 per ounce, surpassing the critical $3500 level [1] - COMEX gold also hit a record high of $3616.9 per ounce during the same trading session [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - As gold prices surged, gold-related ETFs have seen significant gains, with 13 commodity gold ETFs and 4 stock gold ETFs in the market [1] - Year-to-date returns for gold ETFs are approximately 30%, while gold stock ETFs have exceeded 60% returns [1] - The highest-performing ETF, Yongying Gold Stock ETF, has increased by about 69% year-to-date [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Several fund companies anticipate that factors such as the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, increased macroeconomic uncertainty overseas, and the global trend of de-dollarization will support gold prices in the medium to long term [1] - There is a cautionary note regarding the impact of stablecoin development on the credit of the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the ongoing trade tensions, with the U.S. threatening to impose a 100% tariff on Russia and the EU finalizing a second round of countermeasures against the U.S. [1] - There is a slight cooling in interest rate cut expectations, coupled with high market uncertainty, leading to continued fluctuations in gold prices. [1] - Short-term market opinions on gold price direction are increasingly divided, necessitating close monitoring of U.S. tariff developments, the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Federal Reserve potentially entering a rate cut cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to provide some support for gold prices. [1] - Investors may consider gradually accumulating positions during price pullbacks. [1] - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales from the mainland and Hong Kong markets. [1]

Group 1 - The situation has rapidly escalated following Israel's attack on Iran, leading to increased risk aversion and a rise in gold prices, which have once again surpassed 3400 [1] - Market sentiment is being affected by trade negotiations and geopolitical developments, resulting in increased volatility in gold prices; a "double top" pattern has formed, indicating potential resistance at the previous high of 3430 [1] - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to provide support for gold prices, suggesting opportunities for strategic buying during pullbacks [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales to reflect the overall performance of the gold industry [1] - The index constituents include gold mining companies and jewelry firms, showcasing significant industry concentration [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link C (021674) and Link A (021673) [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the medium to long-term hedging value of gold, highlighting recent geopolitical easing and its impact on gold prices, particularly through the performance of gold ETFs [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - Recent easing of tariffs and geopolitical tensions has been observed, with significant developments such as the U.S.-China-Switzerland Geneva talks resulting in a 90-day suspension of certain reciprocal tariffs [1]. - Russian President Putin's support for a ceasefire proposal with Ukraine signals a positive trend in geopolitical conflict resolution [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The global risk appetite has been rising, leading to a recent pullback in gold prices, attributed to a decrease in safe-haven sentiment and a reduction in risk premiums due to trade easing [1]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflict de-escalation may further pressure gold prices in the short term [1]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, factors such as the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, increasing macroeconomic policy uncertainties abroad, and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to provide support for gold prices in the medium to long term [1]. Group 4: Investment Products - The gold ETF (code: 518800) tracks the spot price of gold (Au99.99 contract) and is closely linked to the trading price of high-purity (99.99%) physical gold in China, making it suitable for investors focused on asset preservation and inflation hedging [1]. - Investors without stock accounts may consider alternative products such as the Guotai Gold ETF Link A (000218) and Guotai Gold ETF Link C (004253) [2].