Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have surged to historical highs, with gold reaching a peak of 4584 on COMEX, indicating a strong upward trend in precious metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, the gold ETF (518800) closed down by 0.9% [1] - Last week, precious metals prices, including silver, soared to record highs, continuing a historical upward trend [1] - The London spot gold price broke previous highs and continued to strengthen, consistently setting new historical records [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is projected to rise from 3.8% in Q2 2023 to 4.3%, significantly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 3.3% [1] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, but there are concerns that the current high growth in the U.S. economy may not be sustainable [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - Ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine persist, with reports of drone attacks on Moscow and unresolved territorial issues between Trump and Zelensky [1] - The situation in Venezuela is escalating, with Trump increasing pressure on President Maduro by blocking oil tankers and announcing the closure of airspace around Venezuela, with potential airstrike options not ruled out [1] Group 4: Market Regulations - CME Group announced a significant increase in margin requirements for metal futures, including gold and silver, effective after market close on December 29 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has also issued risk warnings and control measures in response to the precious metals market trends [2] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Short-term, there is an increased risk of profit-taking among investors following the recent highs in gold prices [2] - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to provide support for gold prices [2] - Investors are encouraged to monitor investment opportunities in gold ETFs (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) [2]

今日A股小幅震荡，上证指数微涨0.04%，收于3965.28点，截至今日已录得九连阳；深证成指下跌0.49%，收于 13537.10点。两市成交维持2.15万亿元的高位，整体上跌多涨少。临近年末市场热点趋于分散，石油、军工板 块表现相对较好。四季度以来市场经历短暂调整后恢复上行，长期来看推动本轮行情的积极因素尚未出现变 化，明年的慢牛行情依然可期。 养殖板块今日温和上涨。生猪方面，随着"政策端强力去化"+"市场端亏损去化"的双重叠加，生猪供应将出现 实质性收缩，猪价有望开启震荡上行通道。黄鸡方面，随着消费季节性提升，价格或已筑底完成，且行业亏损 之下供给端可能进一步收缩。蛋鸡行业受海外引种受限（禽流感、航班等问题）的滞后影响，2026年上游祖代 种鸡的缺口将逐步传导至商品代，鸡苗和毛鸡价格中枢有望抬升，龙头企业凭借高市占率有望释放业绩弹性。 成本端，全球粮食供应相对宽松，玉米、豆粕等饲料原料价格大概率维持低位震荡，对养殖业利润形成支撑。 总体而言，经历过2024、2025年的震荡磨底及产能去化后，2026年养殖业有望迎来利润与估值的同时修复，感 兴趣的投资者可以关注养殖ETF(159865)。 //// // ...

格隆汇12月29日｜南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹分析指出，此轮金价大涨的核心驱动力来 自多重因素的共振，包括美联储重启降息和技术性扩表带来的流动性宽松预期、贸易关税政策加剧的全 球去美元化趋势，以及美国财政可持续性削弱美元地位。在这些宏观背景下，投资者的强劲需求已取代 央行购金，成为推升金价的主导力量。白银市场则出现了更为结构性的供需失衡。夏莹莹进一步分析， 全球白银库存持续处于低位，市场呈现"结构性挤兑"现象，加上太阳能光伏、电子和医疗领域的刚性工 业需求不断扩张，导致现货溢价飙升。 ...

今日A股震荡下行。上证指数收于3867.92点，下跌0.55%，深证成指收于13112.09点，下跌1.10%。两市 共计成交不足1.8万亿元，较前一交易日有所下降。市场整体跌多涨少，非银金融盘中拉升，电子、通 信方向领跌。 当前A股所处的经济和政策环境整体维持积极，预计财政支出将保持积极，推动经济总需求回暖。中期 来看，在各项稳增长措施及宽松货币、财政政策落地后，总需求增速有望重回扩张区间，带动A股重新 进入上行周期。 //// 今日统计局发布11月部分经济数据。数据显示，固定资产投资累计同比增速下滑至-2.6%创2021以来新 低，其中地产投资单月同比下降超30%。经济结构继续呈现供给强、需求弱、通胀低的特征，对债市形 成边际利好。 虽然近期债市情绪依然偏弱，但支撑债市企稳的支撑力量亦开始显现。从供给端来看，未来一段时间的 供给压力有所缓和，同时随着利差变化，供给端期限存在调整可能，长端利率压力有望减轻。从需求端 看，银行指标压力阶段性缓和，年初银行或获得新的资本补充，减持趋势将转为增持。此外，交易型机 构仓位的下降意味着抛售力量正在逐渐下降，市场企稳之后交易型机构补仓反而有望推动市场企稳。 目前10年期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main macro factors supporting gold prices in 2025 are expected to continue into 2026, including global de-dollarization, U.S. fiscal pressures, overall macro uncertainty, central bank gold purchases, physical gold ETF demand, and Tether's procurement of gold [1] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - Despite limited room for real interest rate declines, gold remains the only true safe-haven asset in the market [1] - Gold prices are projected to maintain a range-bound pattern in 2026, which is still positive for the industry [1] Group 2: Mining Stocks Analysis - The firm maintains an optimistic outlook for gold mining stocks in 2026, anticipating that mining companies will expand profit margins and generate higher annual free cash flow [1] - There is currently no significant cost inflation pressure observed in the mining sector [1] Group 3: Preferred Mining Companies - Barrick Gold Corporation is identified as the top pick among large-cap gold mining stocks [1] - Alamos Gold is viewed as having significant upside potential, possessing the highest quality asset portfolio among mid-cap miners [1] - Royal Gold is considered undervalued, with potential for valuation recovery in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main macro factors supporting gold prices in 2025 are expected to continue into 2026, including global de-dollarization trends, U.S. fiscal pressures, overall macro uncertainty, central bank gold purchases, physical gold ETF demand, and Tether's procurement of gold [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Despite limited room for real interest rate declines, gold remains the only true safe-haven asset in the market [1] - Gold prices are projected to maintain a range-bound consolidation in 2026, which is still positive for the industry [1] Group 2: Mining Stocks - The firm maintains an optimistic outlook for gold mining stocks in 2026, citing attractive valuations and expectations for increased profit margins and higher annual free cash flow from mining companies [1] - Currently, there is no significant cost inflation pressure observed in the industry [1] Group 3: Company Recommendations - Barrick Gold Corporation is identified as the top pick among large-cap gold mining stocks [1] - Alamos Gold is viewed as having significant upside potential, possessing the highest quality asset portfolio among mid-cap miners [1] - Royal Gold is considered undervalued, with expectations for a price correction in the future [1]

2025年12月以来，美元指数呈现显著震荡下行特征，指数在99.10附近震荡，较11月下旬高点已累计回 落1.2%。当前市场目光高度聚焦于12月9日至10日美联储年内收官议息会议，此次会议的政策决议将成 为美元指数下一阶段走势的核心催化变量，而市场对美联储12月降息的强烈预期则主导着短期市场情 绪。 技术面来看，美元指数近期持续运行在下降通道内，呈现弱势震荡下行特征。短期均线持续压制指数反 弹，MACD动能柱保持在零轴下方，显示空头力量仍占主导。市场分析指出，若98.80附近的支撑位被 有效下破，指数或将进一步向98.20区域测试；反之，若在当前区间获得支撑并出现放量反弹，则可能 向99.50一线发起修复性反弹，但日线趋势仍偏空，上行动能有限。 从核心驱动因素来看，美联储货币政策取向无疑是决定美元指数走势的关键内生变量。据CME"美联储 观察"数据显示，截至12月3日，市场对美联储12月实施25个基点降息的定价概率已升至89.2%，较一周 前的71%大幅攀升，维持利率不变的概率仅余10.8%。这一预期升温源于美国经济数据的温和表现：就 业动能有所降温，制造业活动依然偏弱，而通胀水平已回落至美联储更能接受的区间 ...

2025年12月以来，美元指数呈现显著震荡下行特征，核心驱动逻辑围绕美联储12月降息预期升温、美联 储主席人选更迭预期及非美货币走势联动效应展开。美元指数报98.72，较11月下旬高点已累计回落 1.2%；其中11月25日美元指数跌破100整数关口后持续承压，为非美货币创造了显著升值空间。当前市 场研究聚焦于12月9日至10日美联储年内收官议息会议，该会议决策将成为美元指数下一阶段走势的关 键催化变量。 非美货币走势联动及全球经济环境构成影响美元指数的重要外围因素。近期美元指数的承压下行，一定 程度上源于非美货币的相对走强衬托——人民币对美元汇率表现强劲，12月3日离岸人民币兑美元盘中 升破7.06，创逾一年来新高，背后得益于中国资产吸引力提升带来的资本流入支撑。与此同时，欧洲、 日本等主要经济体虽面临各自增长困境，但市场对其央行政策调整的预期已逐步消化，欧元、日元的贬 值态势有所放缓，削弱了美元指数的相对强势基础。此外，全球金融市场风险情绪演变通过影响美元避 险资产属性，间接作用于指数走势，而特朗普政府关税政策的潜在不确定性，仍为美元指数波动预留了 额外空间。 学界及机构对美元指数后续走势的研判存在显著分歧 ...

美联储降息预期明显升温，美联储12月降息或已成定局。由于近期美国就业市场数据疲软，多位联储官员公开支持降息。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场 目前预计美联储在12月10日降息的可能性为86%。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | MEETING DATE 175-200 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 350-375 375-400 | | | | | | 400-425 | | 12/10/2025 | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 86.2% | 13.8% | 0.0% | | 1/28/2026 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.8% | 65.4% | 9.8% ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.65% to 3914.01 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25% to 13146.72 points, indicating improved market activity and a potential phase of stabilization after recent adjustments [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, with silver and copper reaching historical highs, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and increased global liquidity, alongside investments in new energy and power grids [1] - The gaming ETF saw a recovery, rising by 1.64%, following the National Press and Publication Administration's approval of 184 domestic online game licenses in November, marking a record high for the year [1] Group 2 - The gold sector continued its upward trend, supported by heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have risen to over 80%, alongside geopolitical uncertainties that enhance gold's safe-haven appeal [2] - The combination of the Fed's rate cut cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and trends towards de-dollarization is expected to provide ongoing support for gold prices, prompting interest in gold ETFs and stocks [2]