文 任泽平团队 随着市场创新高，近期牛市共识强烈，出现逼空行情。监管出手降温、降杠杆，要慢牛，不要疯牛。 底部靠信仰，顶部靠理性。股市总是绝望中重生，争议中上涨，狂欢中崩盘。牛市的逻辑还在吗？如果 逻辑破坏，牛市结束。那么，牛市继续或终结的信号是什么？ 根据我的分析框架，后面市场的分化和震荡会加大，方向错误也不赚钱。 作为这轮牛市最早的吹哨人和牛市旗手，我在2024年9月提出"信心牛"，逻辑是政策牛+科技牛+水牛叠 加。这是继2014年"5000点不是梦"之后，再次从宏观层面成功预测牛市。 从事宏观经济研究和投资实践二十年，看清趋势至关重要，模糊的正确好过精准的错误。平常心，想本 质、想简单、想长远。 市场有涨有落，投资有其规律性，有其魅力，但也有其残酷性，对此要有充分了解，保持良好的心态， 不要影响正常的生活和工作。 2 闲钱做投资，忌赌徒心态，不盲目加杠杆 在股市中，闲钱做投资是重要原则，确保不会影响短期生活质量，保持从容、体面和耐心。有些投资者 一看牛市来了，恨不得把所有家庭资产ALL IN到股市中，甚至借钱炒股。这种寄希望一场牛市实现财 富自由的赌徒心态，一来影响身心健康，无心本职工作，整日盯盘，严重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current bullish market sentiment and the potential for a "slow bull" rather than a "crazy bull," emphasizing the importance of rationality and understanding market dynamics to avoid pitfalls in investing [1]. Market Volatility - Market fluctuations are normal, and investors should respect market rules and avoid being swayed by emotions. The concept of "Mr. Market" illustrates that stock prices can deviate from intrinsic values in the short term, but will eventually revert to their true value [5]. - Investors should remain calm and rational, avoiding emotional reactions to market movements. The article highlights the dangers of impulsive trading based on fear or greed, advocating for a focus on identifying strong companies and waiting for the right opportunities [6]. Investment Principles - Investing should be done with spare money that does not affect one's quality of life. The article warns against a gambler's mentality, where investors risk all their assets in hopes of quick wealth, which can lead to stress and poor decision-making [7]. - The article categorizes household assets into four types: money for expenses, money for safety, money for growth, and money for preservation. It emphasizes the importance of maintaining sufficient cash for living expenses [8]. Market Behavior - The article cautions that a bull market does not guarantee profits and warns against chasing trends and frequent trading. It cites Graham's observation that bull markets can lead to losses for ordinary investors due to overconfidence and impulsive actions [10]. - A-shares are characterized by a predominance of retail investors, which amplifies market volatility and can lead to herd behavior. The number of retail investors has surpassed 240 million, with retail holdings accounting for about 28% of the market capitalization [11]. Cognitive Awareness - Investors must change their mindset and avoid making decisions based on rumors or superficial information. Understanding the fundamentals of the market, including economic indicators and company performance, is crucial for successful investing [12]. - The article emphasizes the importance of investing within one's capability and knowledge. It suggests that investors should either engage directly in stock trading if experienced or rely on professional fund managers if they lack the time or expertise [13]. Risk Management - Diversification is essential to mitigate non-systematic risks. The article advises against concentrating investments in a single asset or sector, promoting a balanced portfolio across various asset classes [14]. - Investors should maintain a long-term perspective and not let short-term market fluctuations alter their investment beliefs. Focusing on companies with long-term growth potential is key to achieving better returns [16]. Emotional Discipline - The article discusses the "disposition effect," where investors tend to sell winning stocks too early and hold onto losing ones. It encourages focusing on fundamental analysis rather than succumbing to short-term market pressures [17]. - Investors should avoid "selective attention," which leads to a biased view of the market. A comprehensive evaluation of market conditions and company performance is necessary for informed decision-making [18].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：泽平宏观展望 随着市场创新高，近期牛市共识强烈，出现逼空行情。监管出手降温、降杠杆，要慢牛，不要疯牛。 底部靠信仰，顶部靠理性。股市总是绝望中重生，争议中上涨，狂欢中崩盘。牛市的逻辑还在吗？如果 逻辑破坏，牛市结束。那么，牛市继续或终结的信号是什么？ 根据我的分析框架，后面市场的分化和震荡会加大，方向错误也不赚钱。 作为这轮牛市最早的吹哨人和牛市旗手，我在2024年9月提出"信心牛"，逻辑是政策牛+科技牛+水牛叠 加。这是继2014年"5000点不是梦"之后，再次从宏观层面成功预测牛市。 从事宏观经济研究和投资实践二十年，看清趋势至关重要，模糊的正确好过精准的错误。平常心，想本 质、想简单、想长远。 市场有涨有落，投资有其规律性，有其魅力，但也有其残酷性，对此要有充分了解，保持良好的心态， 不要影响正常的生活和工作。 投资是一场修炼心性与提高认知的过程，尊重市场、敬畏市场、不断学习，才能享受投资的过程。 我们总结了九大建议，希望对股民们有所帮助。 1理性看待市场波动，尊重市场规律，忌被情绪左右 市场有涨就有跌，股市波动很正常，股神 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed divergence this week with a cooling risk appetite; the Dow Jones increased by 1.05% while the Nasdaq fell by 1.62%, indicating a shift of funds away from overvalued growth stocks [1] - European stocks remained weak, while Asian markets, particularly in China, Japan, and South Korea, saw gains; Hong Kong stocks slightly declined by 0.42% [1] - In the commodity sector, oil prices decreased, while gold and copper prices strengthened [1] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market exhibited structural fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.74% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 1.72%, showcasing resilience in the technology growth sector; however, the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index experienced slight declines [1] - Market turnover shrank, leading to a focus on small and mid-cap growth sectors amid a stock game [1] Sector Performance - Industry performance showed increasing divergence, with sectors such as telecommunications, military, and electronics leading gains driven by policy support; the telecommunications sector saw a rise of 6.27% [1] - Conversely, cyclical sectors like coal, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate experienced notable pullbacks [1] Policy Environment - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for "seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency," emphasizing support for technological innovation and new productive forces, and mentioned the flexible use of interest rate cuts [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve also reinforced global liquidity easing [1] Outlook - Looking ahead to next week, the structural market trend in A-shares is expected to continue, supported by internal policy expectations and external liquidity conditions; the technology growth theme is likely to remain dominant, with continued attention on telecommunications, electronics, semiconductors, and military sectors [1] - Hong Kong stocks may benefit from improved liquidity and valuation advantages, with a potential recovery in technology and financial sectors [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to focus on sectors with clear industrial trends and strong policy support, such as AI computing power, domestic substitution, and high-end manufacturing, while avoiding chasing high valuations and emphasizing strategic positioning during pullbacks [1]