文 | 豹变 高泽 编辑 | 邢昀 2026年开年，A股以日线"17连阳"的强势表现刷新历史，上证指数逼近4200点，延续"9·24"以来的"长牛"行情，催生新 一轮开户热潮。 在这场资本盛宴中，年轻人成为不可忽视的入场主力。数据显示，2025年，35岁以下的"90后""00后"新开户占比已超 45%，他们正在成为投资市场的"生力军"。 作为互联网原生代，以00后为代表的年轻投资者不再恪守传统的"财不外露"准则，反而活跃在社交平台上，每日播报自 己的投资操作与盈亏起伏。 投资经历可能有限，但他们表达欲望爆棚：决定加仓时，配一张"会赢的"名场面截图；盈利时皆大欢喜，若是亏了钱， 则借用漫画《FX战士久留美》中主角爆仓崩溃的名场面，配一张下行曲线自嘲。 有人跟风追高、大胆使用杠杆，有人深耕策略、理性配置。在资本市场的波动试炼中，00后投资者正在写下属于他们的 投资第一课。 01 互联网原住民，开启投资第一课 这一代00后，是成长于智能手机与移动互联网之上的"数字原住民"。他们的生活环境里，信息是即时的、交易是线上 的、社交是网状的。这种与生俱来的连接感，深刻塑造了他们接触和认识投资的方式。 同时，券商APP线上开 ...

「核心提示」 00后成长于即时反馈的互联网环境中，但投资恰恰是一门"延迟满足"的功课。 2026年开年，A股以日线"17连阳"的强势表现刷新历史，上证指数逼近4200点，延续"9·24"以来的"长 牛"行情，催生新一轮开户热潮。 在这场资本盛宴中，年轻人成为不可忽视的入场主力。数据显示，2025年，35岁以下的"90后""00后"新 开户占比已超45%，他们正在成为投资市场的"生力军"。 作为互联网原生代，以00后为代表的年轻投资者不再恪守传统的"财不外露"准则，反而活跃在社交平台 上，每日播报自己的投资操作与盈亏起伏。 投资经历可能有限，但他们表达欲望爆棚：决定加仓时，配一张"会赢的"名场面截图；盈利时皆大欢 喜，若是亏了钱，则借用漫画《FX战士久留美》中主角爆仓崩溃的名场面，配一张下行曲线自嘲。 有人跟风追高、大胆使用杠杆，有人深耕策略、理性配置。在资本市场的波动试炼中，00后投资者正在 写下属于他们的投资第一课。 互联网原住民，开启投资第一课 这一代00后，是成长于智能手机与移动互联网之上的"数字原住民"。他们的生活环境里，信息是即时 的、交易是线上的、社交是网状的。这种与生俱来的连接感，深刻塑造了他们 ...

文 任泽平团队 随着市场创新高，近期牛市共识强烈，出现逼空行情。监管出手降温、降杠杆，要慢牛，不要疯牛。 底部靠信仰，顶部靠理性。股市总是绝望中重生，争议中上涨，狂欢中崩盘。牛市的逻辑还在吗？如果 逻辑破坏，牛市结束。那么，牛市继续或终结的信号是什么？ 根据我的分析框架，后面市场的分化和震荡会加大，方向错误也不赚钱。 作为这轮牛市最早的吹哨人和牛市旗手，我在2024年9月提出"信心牛"，逻辑是政策牛+科技牛+水牛叠 加。这是继2014年"5000点不是梦"之后，再次从宏观层面成功预测牛市。 从事宏观经济研究和投资实践二十年，看清趋势至关重要，模糊的正确好过精准的错误。平常心，想本 质、想简单、想长远。 市场有涨有落，投资有其规律性，有其魅力，但也有其残酷性，对此要有充分了解，保持良好的心态， 不要影响正常的生活和工作。 2 闲钱做投资，忌赌徒心态，不盲目加杠杆 在股市中，闲钱做投资是重要原则，确保不会影响短期生活质量，保持从容、体面和耐心。有些投资者 一看牛市来了，恨不得把所有家庭资产ALL IN到股市中，甚至借钱炒股。这种寄希望一场牛市实现财 富自由的赌徒心态，一来影响身心健康，无心本职工作，整日盯盘，严重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current bullish market sentiment and the potential for a "slow bull" rather than a "crazy bull," emphasizing the importance of rationality and understanding market dynamics to avoid pitfalls in investing [1]. Market Volatility - Market fluctuations are normal, and investors should respect market rules and avoid being swayed by emotions. The concept of "Mr. Market" illustrates that stock prices can deviate from intrinsic values in the short term, but will eventually revert to their true value [5]. - Investors should remain calm and rational, avoiding emotional reactions to market movements. The article highlights the dangers of impulsive trading based on fear or greed, advocating for a focus on identifying strong companies and waiting for the right opportunities [6]. Investment Principles - Investing should be done with spare money that does not affect one's quality of life. The article warns against a gambler's mentality, where investors risk all their assets in hopes of quick wealth, which can lead to stress and poor decision-making [7]. - The article categorizes household assets into four types: money for expenses, money for safety, money for growth, and money for preservation. It emphasizes the importance of maintaining sufficient cash for living expenses [8]. Market Behavior - The article cautions that a bull market does not guarantee profits and warns against chasing trends and frequent trading. It cites Graham's observation that bull markets can lead to losses for ordinary investors due to overconfidence and impulsive actions [10]. - A-shares are characterized by a predominance of retail investors, which amplifies market volatility and can lead to herd behavior. The number of retail investors has surpassed 240 million, with retail holdings accounting for about 28% of the market capitalization [11]. Cognitive Awareness - Investors must change their mindset and avoid making decisions based on rumors or superficial information. Understanding the fundamentals of the market, including economic indicators and company performance, is crucial for successful investing [12]. - The article emphasizes the importance of investing within one's capability and knowledge. It suggests that investors should either engage directly in stock trading if experienced or rely on professional fund managers if they lack the time or expertise [13]. Risk Management - Diversification is essential to mitigate non-systematic risks. The article advises against concentrating investments in a single asset or sector, promoting a balanced portfolio across various asset classes [14]. - Investors should maintain a long-term perspective and not let short-term market fluctuations alter their investment beliefs. Focusing on companies with long-term growth potential is key to achieving better returns [16]. Emotional Discipline - The article discusses the "disposition effect," where investors tend to sell winning stocks too early and hold onto losing ones. It encourages focusing on fundamental analysis rather than succumbing to short-term market pressures [17]. - Investors should avoid "selective attention," which leads to a biased view of the market. A comprehensive evaluation of market conditions and company performance is necessary for informed decision-making [18].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：泽平宏观展望 随着市场创新高，近期牛市共识强烈，出现逼空行情。监管出手降温、降杠杆，要慢牛，不要疯牛。 底部靠信仰，顶部靠理性。股市总是绝望中重生，争议中上涨，狂欢中崩盘。牛市的逻辑还在吗？如果 逻辑破坏，牛市结束。那么，牛市继续或终结的信号是什么？ 根据我的分析框架，后面市场的分化和震荡会加大，方向错误也不赚钱。 作为这轮牛市最早的吹哨人和牛市旗手，我在2024年9月提出"信心牛"，逻辑是政策牛+科技牛+水牛叠 加。这是继2014年"5000点不是梦"之后，再次从宏观层面成功预测牛市。 从事宏观经济研究和投资实践二十年，看清趋势至关重要，模糊的正确好过精准的错误。平常心，想本 质、想简单、想长远。 市场有涨有落，投资有其规律性，有其魅力，但也有其残酷性，对此要有充分了解，保持良好的心态， 不要影响正常的生活和工作。 投资是一场修炼心性与提高认知的过程，尊重市场、敬畏市场、不断学习，才能享受投资的过程。 我们总结了九大建议，希望对股民们有所帮助。 1理性看待市场波动，尊重市场规律，忌被情绪左右 市场有涨就有跌，股市波动很正常，股神 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the reliability of market predictions and the concept of "Mr. Market," suggesting that market prices often reflect emotional states rather than rational evaluations of fundamentals [4][5]. - It highlights examples from the A-share market where stock prices peaked before the actual revenue growth of leading companies, indicating a potential predictive nature of stock prices [6][8]. - The article argues against the belief that stock prices can foresee fundamental changes, emphasizing that historical examples often reflect narrative biases rather than true predictive capabilities [10][12]. Group 2 - The relationship between stock prices and fundamentals is explored through the "random walk theory," which posits that stock prices reflect fundamental changes only when informed investors act on new information [20][22]. - It is noted that only a small percentage of informed investors (10%) can accurately assess changes in fundamentals, leading to a disconnect for the majority of investors who may misinterpret market signals [19][21]. - The article concludes that while market movements may seem to predict fundamental changes, they often do not provide actionable insights for uninformed investors [33][35].

Group 1 - The article discusses the reliability of market movements and the concept of "Mr. Market," suggesting that stock prices often reflect future changes in fundamentals rather than current conditions [3][4][6] - It highlights examples from various industries, such as consumer goods and renewable energy, where stock prices peaked before revenue growth did, indicating a potential predictive nature of stock prices [4][5] - The article argues against the belief that stock prices can predict fundamental changes, emphasizing that market movements are often a result of a small percentage of informed investors influencing prices while the majority react to these changes [18][30] Group 2 - The article critiques the notion that stock prices foresee fundamental changes, stating that this belief is often a narrative bias and that stock prices and fundamentals generally move in sync [28] - It explains that when fundamentals do not change, stock prices exhibit random fluctuations, and only a small fraction of investors (10%) can accurately price in changes, leading to misinterpretations by the larger market [29][30] - The conclusion emphasizes that while the market is effective, it does not allow for easy exploitation of its efficiency, as most investors must rely on their limited understanding to make decisions [32]

Core Insights - Velos Markets is emerging as a key tool for professional investors to decode trends in the complex economic environment of 2025, utilizing its holistic analytical tools to integrate macroeconomic indicators, industry rotation patterns, and geopolitical events into multidimensional investment heat maps [1][3] Group 1: Multi-Dimensional Market Analysis - Velos Markets uniquely couples traditional economic indicators with behavioral finance and geopolitical variables, allowing for the identification of underlying momentum in seemingly contradictory data [3] - The analysis framework tracks the lagged effects of different industries' responses to policies, akin to observing a domino effect, which can reveal localized investment opportunities rather than signaling a broad recession [3] Group 2: Strategy Toolbox - The strategy system of Velos Markets exhibits an elastic structure, categorizing economic cycles, liquidity tides, and industry prosperity into different levels of signal sources [4] - This layered response mechanism enables the system to capture structural opportunities while avoiding excessive trading that could erode returns [4] Group 3: Economic Forecasting - Velos Markets emphasizes "narrative consistency verification" in its forecasting models, cross-validating GDP growth data with executive surveys and social media sentiment [6] - The mid-2025 report highlights that digital infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia, combined with the demographic dividend, may create growth paths that surpass traditional economic models [6] Group 4: Risk Control - The risk management mechanism of Velos Markets is designed as an active defense network with three layers of filtering: position-level volatility alerts, portfolio-level correlation stress tests, and extreme scenario contingency plans [7] - This proactive system allows for timely hedging actions, as demonstrated during the European energy crisis in Q4 2024, enhancing portfolio resilience [7] Group 5: Complex Thinking Paradigm - Velos Markets is redefining the boundaries of traditional "efficient market" theory by incorporating geopolitical variables into asset pricing models, which reflects a shift from mere data interpretation to competitive cognitive modeling [7]