Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of an individual transitioning from a potential career in politics to a focus on value investing, emphasizing the importance of risk management and long-term wealth growth [1] Group 1: Career Transition - The individual initially pursued a career in politics but faced challenges that led to a shift towards finance and investment [1] - After experiencing financial setbacks in 2019, the decision was made to study value investing to create wealth and mitigate risks [1] Group 2: Professional Experience - From 2020 to 2022, the individual worked in a sales role at a law firm, becoming the top-grossing salesman and managing a team, which contributed to a deeper understanding of sales strategies [1] - The experience gained during this period was instrumental in assessing company prospects based on their sales strategies [1] Group 3: Investment Advisory Role - Between 2022 and 2023, the individual served as an investment advisory representative with Fidelity, focusing on 401K planning [1] - The individual excelled in this role, passing Series exams ahead of schedule, but faced frustration due to the reliance on modern portfolio theory rather than value investing principles [1] Group 4: Current Endeavors - In November 2023, the individual began writing for Seeking Alpha, sharing investment opportunities and insights with readers [1] - The articles serve as a platform for the individual to document and share the investment journey alongside readers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of an individual transitioning from a potential career in politics to a focus on value investing, emphasizing the importance of risk management and long-term wealth growth [1] Group 1: Career Transition - The individual initially pursued a career in politics but faced challenges that led to a shift towards finance and investment [1] - After a stint in a sales role at a law firm, where the individual excelled and managed a team, the experience contributed to a deeper understanding of company sales strategies [1] - The individual worked as an investment advisory representative with Fidelity, focusing on 401K planning, but found the company's approach misaligned with their value investing philosophy [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The individual emphasizes a value investing approach, prioritizing an owner's mindset and a long-term investment horizon [1] - The experience gained from reading annual reports and books on public companies has been instrumental in assessing company prospects [1] - The individual expresses excitement when products have strong market demand, indicating a preference for investments that demonstrate inherent value [1] Group 3: Current Endeavors - The individual began writing for Seeking Alpha in November 2023 to share investment opportunities discovered through personal research and experience [1] - The articles serve as a platform for the individual to document and share the investment journey with readers, fostering a community of like-minded investors [1]

金融工程 · 专题报告 财富管理新范式，ETF 投顾展现巨大潜力 盡公募基金市场观察系列 2025 年 12 月 29 日 核心观点 风险提示：报告结论基于历史价格信息和统计规律，但二级市场受各种即时 性政策影 响易 出现统 计规律 之外的走 势， 所以报 告结论 有可能无 法正 确预测 市场发展，报告阅读者需审慎参考报告结论。基金历史收益不代表未来业绩表 现，文中观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议。 分析师 马普凡 ：021-68597610 ：mapufan_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S盫盬目盫盰盭盭盫盯盫盫盫盭 白拙朴 ：baizhuopu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S盫盬目盫盰盭盰盫盯盫盫盫目 研究助理：童诗倍 ：tongshibei_yj @chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 盬. 【银河金工】2026 年年度策略报告：主动管理的 价值发现与被动策略的配置升维 盭. 【银河金工】公募基金系列：被动投资的下一站， 多元化 ETF 策略与指数增强基金 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report analyzes the settings of domestic and international stock-bond constant indices and their impacts on underlying assets and the asset management product ecosystem. Since 2024, China Securities Index Co., Ltd. has released a series of stock-bond constant indices, with 9 allocation strategies, 5 stock-bond ratio gradients, and a total of 39 stock-bond constant ratio indices [1][2][112]. - Stock indices in the stock-bond constant indices focus on 2 smart beta indices (dividend and cash flow) and the A500 index representing industry-balanced mid- and large-cap stocks. Bond indices correspond to a combination of medium- to high-grade credit and treasury and policy financial bond indices [1][2][112]. - From a 3-year perspective, stock-bond constant indices are in a low-drawdown, medium-elasticity range. The stock-bond ratio determines cost-effectiveness, the bond style determines the return bottom, and the equity index determines return elasticity. Historically, the 20:80 stock-bond constant index has a better risk-return ratio than many secondary bond funds [2][100][113]. Group 2: Background of Stock-Bond Constant Indices - In 1952, Harry M. Markowitz proposed the modern portfolio theory, providing a mathematical basis for asset allocation. Diversified asset allocation has become an important direction in wealth management, and multi-asset funds are key tools for implementing this strategy [15]. - The constant ratio strategy, especially the stock-bond constant ratio, is a common strategy in multi-asset index compilation. In the US market, the correlation between stocks and bonds varies with inflation and monetary policy. In the domestic market, stocks and bonds are mainly negatively correlated, and the correlation among stock indices has been decreasing [16][17][20]. Group 3: Basic Information and Risk-Return Characteristics of Stock-Bond Constant Indices 3.1 Basic Information of Stock-Bond Constant Series Indices - As of the end of November 2025, China Securities Index Co., Ltd. has released 100 multi-asset indices, covering strategies such as constant ratio, risk parity, volatility control, target date, and target risk [28]. - The newly released stock-bond constant series indices have 9 allocation strategies and 5 stock-bond ratio gradients, with a total of 39 indices. Stock indices focus on dividend and cash flow smart beta indices and the A500 index, while bond indices are a combination of medium- to high-grade credit and treasury and policy financial bond indices [32]. 3.2 Components and Industry Characteristics of Stock-Bond Constant Indices - The report focuses on the component stocks and sample adjustment of stock indices in stock-bond constant indices. For example, the CSI Dividend Index adjusts its samples once a year, and the CSI 800 Cash Flow Index adjusts quarterly [43][50]. - There are differences in the component stocks among the CSI Dividend Index, CSI 800 Cash Flow Index, and CSI A500 Index. The A500 Index emphasizes industry balance, while the Dividend Index is more concentrated in the financial and energy sectors [58]. 3.3 Return, Volatility, and Drawdown Performance of Stock-Bond Constant Indices - In the past 3 years, the CSI 800 Cash Flow Index has a higher annualized return, followed by dividend-related indices, and the A500 Index has the lowest return among the three. Among bond indices, medium- to high-grade credit bonds have a higher return-volatility ratio [61]. - In the past year, the performance of these indices has changed. The growth style represented by innovation has outperformed the dividend style, and the A500 Index has exceeded the CSI 800 Cash Flow and dividend-related indices in terms of return [74]. Group 4: Comparison between Stock-Bond Constant Indices and Active Fixed-Income Plus Products - Stock-bond constant indices have strong defensive capabilities. Based on the long-term weak negative correlation between stocks and bonds, the 10/90 and 20/80 stock-bond constant indices can reduce volatility and enhance portfolio defense [93]. - In the past three years, the overall return of stock-bond constant indices has been better than that of the WIND Secondary Bond Fund Equal-Weighted Index, and their volatility is lower. The 20:80 stock-bond constant index performs better than most secondary bond funds in the same maximum drawdown range [96][100]. - If stock-bond constant ETFs are launched, due to their low fees and high liquidity, some funds may switch from secondary bond funds to stock-bond constant ETFs, which may cause passive selling of secondary capital bonds and local structural frictions [106][108].

每一位交易者都会面对同一个令人沮丧的问题：市场波动中，究竟有多少是真正可以预测的？ 痛点非常清晰——无数时间被投入到图表形态、技术结构或财报预期中，但市场却常常毫无预警地走向相反的方向。正是在这一点上，伯顿·马尔 基尔（Burton Malkiel）的《漫步华尔街》（A Random Walk Down Wall Street）直击要害。 他的核心观点既令人不安，又让人醍醐灌顶：价格的短期波动本质上是不可预测的，大多数试图战胜市场的努力最终都会失败。对于习惯不断寻 找"优势"的交易者来说，这一结论迫使人们重新审视自己的思维方式。 《漫步华尔街》这本书系统论证了，长期持有广泛分散的指数基金，往往能持续跑赢绝大多数主动交易策略。马尔基尔并非仅凭个人观点下结 论，而是通过数十年的历史数据加以佐证，涵盖了泡沫、崩盘以及非理性繁荣的各个阶段。 对交易者而言，这本书的价值并不在于"放弃交易"，而在于重新思考真正可以发挥能力的地方。与其试图猜测下一根K线的涨跌，不如将重心放 在风险管理、资产分散以及耐心之上。这些，才是长期真正有效的策略。 伯顿·马尔基尔是谁？为什么要听他的观点？ 伯顿·马尔基尔并不是一位站在场外纸上谈兵的 ...

I analyze securities based on value investing, an owner's mindset, and a long-term horizon. I don't write sell articles, as those are considered short theses, and I never recommend shorting.I was initially interested in a career in politics, but after reaching a dead-end in 2019 and seeing the financial drain this posed, I choose a path that would make my money work for me and protect me from more setbacks. This brought me to study value investing, in order to grow wealth with risk management in mind.From 2 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's transition from a potential career in politics to a focus on value investing, emphasizing a long-term investment strategy and risk management [1] Group 1: Career Transition - The author initially pursued a career in politics but shifted to finance after facing challenges in 2019, seeking a more stable financial path [1] - The decision to study value investing was driven by the desire to grow wealth while managing risks effectively [1] Group 2: Professional Experience - From 2020 to 2022, the author worked in a sales role at a law firm, where they became the top-grossing salesman and managed a team, contributing to sales strategy [1] - The experience gained during this period was instrumental in assessing company prospects based on sales strategies [1] Group 3: Investment Advisory Role - The author worked as an investment advisory representative with Fidelity from 2022 to 2023, focusing on 401K planning [1] - Despite excelling in this role, the author felt constrained by Fidelity's reliance on modern portfolio theory, which conflicted with their value investing approach [1] Group 4: Current Endeavors - In November 2023, the author began writing for Seeking Alpha, sharing investment opportunities and insights with readers [1] - The articles serve as a platform for the author to document their investment journey and strategies [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's transition from a potential career in politics to a focus on value investing, emphasizing the importance of risk management and long-term wealth growth [1] Group 1: Career Transition - The author initially pursued a career in politics but shifted to finance after facing challenges in 2019, recognizing the need for financial stability [1] - The decision to study value investing was driven by the desire to make money work effectively and to safeguard against future setbacks [1] Group 2: Professional Experience - From 2020 to 2022, the author worked in a sales role at a law firm, where they became the top-grossing salesman and managed a team, contributing to sales strategy [1] - The experience gained during this period was instrumental in assessing company prospects based on their sales strategies [1] Group 3: Investment Advisory Role - The author served as an investment advisory representative with Fidelity from 2022 to 2023, focusing on 401K planning [1] - Despite excelling in this role and passing Series exams ahead of schedule, the author felt constrained by Fidelity's reliance on modern portfolio theory, leading to a decision to leave after one year [1] Group 4: Current Endeavors - In November 2023, the author began writing for Seeking Alpha, sharing investment opportunities discovered through personal research and experience [1] - The articles serve as a platform for the author to communicate investment strategies and insights to readers, who are considered partners in this journey [1]

I analyze securities based on value investing, an owner's mindset, and a long-term horizon. I don't write sell articles, as those are considered short theses, and I never recommend shorting.I was initially interested in a career in politics, but after reaching a dead-end in 2019 and seeing the financial drain this posed, I choose a path that would make my money work for me and protect me from more setbacks. This brought me to study value investing, in order to grow wealth with risk management in mind.From 2 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's transition from a potential career in politics to a focus on value investing, emphasizing the importance of risk management and long-term wealth growth [1] Group 1: Career Transition - The author initially pursued a career in politics but shifted to finance after facing challenges in 2019, recognizing the need for financial stability [1] - The decision to study value investing was driven by the desire to make money work effectively and to safeguard against future setbacks [1] Group 2: Professional Experience - From 2020 to 2022, the author worked in a sales role at a law firm, where they became the top-grossing salesman and managed a team, contributing to sales strategy [1] - The experience gained during this period was instrumental in assessing company prospects based on sales strategies [1] Group 3: Investment Advisory Role - The author served as an investment advisory representative with Fidelity from 2022 to 2023, focusing on 401K planning [1] - Despite excelling in this role and passing Series exams ahead of schedule, the author felt constrained by Fidelity's reliance on modern portfolio theory, leading to a decision to leave after one year [1] Group 4: Current Endeavors - In November 2023, the author began writing for Seeking Alpha, sharing investment opportunities discovered through personal research and experience [1] - The articles serve as a platform for the author to communicate investment strategies and insights to readers, who are seen as partners in this journey [1]