Core Viewpoint - Pessimism is identified as a major economic issue globally, with a lack of positive sentiment affecting economic performance and decision-making [1][2]. Group 1: Global Sentiment and Economic Impact - Pessimistic sentiment is spreading globally, with consumer confidence in the U.S. near historical lows and European economic confidence indices below long-term averages for three consecutive years [1]. - A survey of 27,000 voters and business leaders across the U.S., U.K., Canada, EU, and Japan reveals that most respondents believe the next generation will face a more challenging life, indicating a widespread belief in systemic inequality favoring the wealthy [1][2]. - In an international poll of nearly 60,000 people, the number of economic pessimists in the U.K. and Japan is approximately double that of optimists, while in Germany, the ratio is nearly 12 to 1 [2]. Group 2: Behavioral and Policy Implications - Persistent pessimism is a significant constraint on the global economy, leading to reduced investment and a shift towards zero-sum thinking, where one party's gain is perceived as another's loss [2][3]. - The concept of "uncertainty shock" arises from increased pessimism, causing households and businesses to delay high-risk decisions, which is evident in the reduced hiring rates in the U.S. despite GDP growth [3]. - A belief in economic system opacity fosters zero-sum thinking, leading to support for wealth redistribution policies rather than economic growth, with many individuals viewing AI as a threat to job opportunities [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Discipline and Political Environment - Pessimism undermines fiscal discipline, as voters with low confidence are less tolerant of short-term sacrifices, making it difficult to implement austerity measures [4]. - Historical examples show that successful fiscal tightening requires public belief in future rewards, which is lacking in the current environment, leading to resistance against necessary economic adjustments [4]. - The greatest threat to the global economy is not just the data itself but the political ecology shaped by pessimistic sentiment, necessitating government action to foster a more optimistic societal outlook to drive economic growth [4].

那么，居民资金入市缓慢的深层原因是什么？如何看待未来增量资金的空间？在岁末年初的日历效应下，居民资金是否会缺席"春季躁动"行情？ 居民资金行为透视："去杠杆化"特征 与2015年"杠杆疯牛"的狂热或2020年核心资产抱团时期的"借基入市"不同，2025年的居民入市行为呈现出显著的 "去杠杆化"的特征。当前居民资金的"慢"， 并非市场缺乏流动性，而是居民资产配置偏好在当前宏观背景之下正在经历一些历史性变化。 第一，新增开户数量提升速度不及以前。2025年11月新增开户数为238万户，较7月低点有所回暖，但这一水平仅相当于2019年3月上一轮牛市初期的202万 户。这远低于2020年7月"基金热潮"时的405万户，更不及2015年牛市水平。 李迅雷 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 引言 通过对比2020年白酒消费、2021年新能源、2025年科技这三轮主线行情，可以发现一个显著特征：本轮科技结构性行情中，无论是机构资金还是散户资金的 入场节奏都表现得"相对克制"，流入加速度明显趋缓。 同时，杠杆资金净买入强度仍明显弱于2019-2020那种"单边净加仓"状态，更像是"观望、分段加仓"，右侧追涨扩张程度并不高。而与居民资金 ...