Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is under pressure, trading below the 99 mark, primarily due to lower-than-expected CPI data, which has increased market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Economic Data Summary - The September CPI year-on-year recorded at 3.0%, below the market expectation of 3.1% - Core CPI year-on-year also slowed to 3.0% - Month-on-month CPI increased by only 0.3%, while core CPI rose by 0.2%, both lower than market forecasts [1] Market Sentiment Summary - The market is betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, reducing the benchmark rate from 4.0%-4.25% [1] - Trade tensions have eased temporarily, providing some support for the dollar as risk aversion decreases [1] Technical Analysis Summary - The dollar index is currently below major moving averages, indicating short-term weakness - MACD remains below the zero line, suggesting dominant bearish momentum - Key resistance levels are at 99.50 and 100.00, while support levels are at 98.50 and 98.00, with a potential test of 97.60 if these levels are breached [2]

Group 1 - International gold prices continued to show weakness, with paper gold prices dipping to 750.72 CNY per gram and closing at 757.85 CNY per gram, reflecting a daily decline of 0.61% [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June have plummeted, with the probability of a cut now at only 2.2%, and a 24% chance for July, leading traders to bet on a potential easing cycle starting in September [1][3] - Gold, as a low-interest-rate sensitive asset, has benefited from global central bank easing expectations, with a year-to-date increase of 26% and a historical high reached in April [3] Group 2 - The recent strong "hawkish" signals from the Federal Reserve pose significant challenges for gold bulls, especially after the U.S. consumer confidence index for May rose unexpectedly to 102, the highest in six months, reinforcing confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy, particularly comments from former President Trump regarding a new tax bill, raises concerns about the sustainability of fiscal expansion, which could delay the Fed's rate cut timeline and exert further pressure on gold [3] - Upcoming economic data releases, including the revised Q1 GDP and April core PCE price index, are critical for market observation, as resilient economic data and unexpected inflation readings could further reduce rate cut expectations and increase gold price volatility [3] Group 3 - Technically, paper gold is showing a downward trend, with key resistance identified in the 785-795 CNY per gram range and significant support at 730-740 CNY per gram; a breach of this support could lead to further declines [4] - The market is currently in a phase of "economic data validation" and "policy expectation adjustment," with a focus on the marginal changes in inflation statements from Federal Reserve officials and whether core PCE data confirms a downward inflation trend [5] - Until the timing of rate cuts becomes clearer, gold is likely to experience high volatility at elevated levels, suggesting that investment opportunities should be timed with both technical and fundamental alignment [5]