格隆汇11月12日｜花旗预计到2026年第二季度，铜价将继续攀升至平均1.2万美元/吨（牛市情况为1.4万 美元/吨）；预计今年剩余时间铜交易价格约为1.1万美元/吨。忽略近期实物需求疲软的因素，目标价反 映出2026年更看涨的基本面设置，但如果看涨催化剂出现，铜价可能比预期更快涨至1.2万美元/吨。全 球制造业情绪好坏参半，意味着2025年剩余时间内周期性铜需求板块上行空间有限。预计在2024年较强 劲消费的基础上，2025年第四季度铜消费同比增长将持续走软，制造业活动也将放缓，但预计在美国宽 松的财政和全球货币政策的帮助下，到2026年将出现复苏。 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date and Author - Date: October 28, 2025 - Author: Wang Wenhu from the Research Institute [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Sino-US economic and trade relations' easing may put pressure on precious metal prices; Fed's possible rate cut and stop of balance sheet reduction in the long term support precious metal prices; some central banks' gold - related actions have mixed impacts on prices. It is expected that precious metal prices may adjust, and investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Sections Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Situation**: US unpaid public debt scale increased by $30.8 billion to $3.80 trillion; 2025 Q3 Treasury net issuance was $964.5 billion, and Q4 may decline. Permanent expansion of additional tax credits may increase fiscal deficits by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035; abolition of health insurance - related provisions may increase deficits by $1.4 - $37.5 billion [10] - **Monetary Policy Tools**: Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $2.435 billion; bank reserve balance decreased, overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale increased, and Treasury cash account increased. The temporary appropriation bill passed by the House failed in the Senate. Fed's lending to commercial banks showed different trends, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired. The Fed used the standing repurchase facility SRF, with a cumulative use of $30.6 billion [11][13][16][17] - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: US September CPI was 3% year - on - year, core CPI was 3% year - on - year. October consumer inflation expectations were 4.6% (1 - year) and 3.9% (5 - year). Mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to Fed's expected rate cuts and stop of balance sheet reduction. The spread between long - and mid - term Treasuries was positive and widened [19][21][26] - **Financial Stress Index**: The US OFR financial stress index decreased to - 2.0930, with some sub - indicators rising. The Fed's use of SRF eased inter - bank liquidity [29] Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - **Commercial Bank Loans**: US commercial bank loan and lease volume increased week - on - week, with different trends in various loan types [33][35] - **Retail Sales**: US Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate decreased to 5.0% week - on - week, but consumer spending remained relatively stable [38] - **Mortgage Applications**: US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased, MBA mortgage application activity index decreased, and August new and existing home sales increased [41] - **Employment**: US initial jobless claims were 218,000, lower than expected and previous values; continued claims were 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than previous values. September ADP private employment decreased by 32,000, indicating concerns about a weakening job market [44] - **International Bond Yield Spreads**: The spreads between US and German (Japanese) mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to different central bank policies [47] - **Exchange Rates**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate may bottom out, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate may weaken [48] - **Market Volatility**: US S&P 500 and gold ETF index volatilities decreased [50] Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - **Gold**: COMEX gold non - commercial long - short position ratio decreased; COMEX and SHFE total gold inventory decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [56][58][60][67][69][72] - **Silver**: London silver 1 - month lease rate decreased significantly; COMEX silver non - commercial long - short position ratio increased; COMEX, SHFE, and SGE total silver inventory decreased. Silver futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [73][76][79][83][84][85] - **Ratio Analysis**: "Gold - silver ratio" was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years; "Gold - oil ratio" and "Gold - copper ratio" were much higher than the 90% quantiles of the past five years, with corresponding investment suggestions [87][89]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the uncertainty in U.S. government tariff and fiscal policies, which undermines investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar [2][4]. - As of October 2025, the U.S. national debt has exceeded $37.86 trillion, with a federal budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, remaining at historically high levels [4]. - The net interest cost of U.S. public debt has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, reflecting an approximately 8% increase compared to the fiscal year 2024, indicating a structural challenge for the government in managing rising debt costs [4]. Group 2 - Investors are advised to closely monitor U.S. government policy dynamics, economic data, and global market changes to assess risks and make informed investment decisions [4]. - The article emphasizes the need for discussions on the long-term perspectives of U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, inviting contributions from experts in the field [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in international gold prices, which fell over 6% to below $4100 per ounce, marks the largest single-day drop in 12 years, surprising many investors who had recently entered the market [1] Price Fluctuations and Historical Context - Gold prices had previously reached a historical peak of $4390 per ounce on October 17, with expectations of breaking the $4400 mark shortly thereafter [1] - Over the past 20 years, gold prices have experienced four significant declines, with drops of 22%, 20%, 45%, and 33% [1] - In 2022, gold prices fluctuated significantly, with a peak near $2078 per ounce before falling to $1618 per ounce, a decline of 22%, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy and a strengthening dollar [3][5] - The decline in 2020 was attributed to the Federal Reserve's actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, where initial rate cuts and quantitative easing led to a peak in gold prices, followed by a 20% drop as expectations of further easing diminished [5] - The most prolonged decline occurred from 2011 to 2015, where gold prices fell from a peak of $1920.30 to around $1000, a 45% drop, driven by reduced fiscal deficits and the cessation of quantitative easing [7] Recent Market Dynamics - On October 15, gold prices briefly surpassed $4180 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline of nearly $90, indicating profit-taking among investors [9] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also saw significant reductions, with notable drops in prices per gram across various brands [9] - Year-to-date, international gold prices have increased by over 30%, a notable rise that is not commonly seen historically [9] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy are shifting, with potential adjustments if U.S. economic data remains strong [9][11] Investment Considerations - Historical trends suggest that gold prices are influenced by several key factors, including prior price increases, liquidity conditions, fiscal policy changes, and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [7][11] - While gold is viewed as a valuable asset for diversification, investors are advised to remain cautious, especially after significant price increases, to avoid being trapped at market peaks [11]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a slight increase on October 1, closing at $3868.44 per ounce after reaching a high of $3895.19 and a low of $3837.90 [1] Employment Data - The ADP employment report for September showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, falling short of the market expectation of 50,000 and down from the previous value of 54,000 [3] - The chief economist at ADP noted a cautious hiring trend among U.S. employers despite strong economic growth in Q2 [3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September recorded at 49.1, surpassing the market expectation of 49 and the previous value of 48.7, indicating a slight slowdown in manufacturing activity contraction [4] Government Shutdown - The U.S. government faced its first day of a shutdown, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill, and voting is set to pause on October 2 [4] - The Vice President expressed that the government shutdown is not expected to last long [4] - Fitch Ratings highlighted that the shutdown underscores challenges in policy-making and governance, while the uncertainty in U.S. policy is expected to persist [5] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF globally, increased its holdings by 6.01 tons, bringing the total to 1018.89 tons [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 0.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 99.4% [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed signs of fatigue after reaching high levels, with a long upper shadow indicating potential topping [9] - Short-term price movements suggest a gradual pullback, with the 60-day moving average providing support [9] - The overall trend remains bullish, but caution is advised for short-term trading strategies [10][11]

Group 1: U.S. National Debt - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, approximately 1.27 times the projected nominal GDP for 2024 [1][2] - As of August 12, 2023, the U.S. national debt reached $37,004,817,625,842 [1] - The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2025, accounting for 6.2% of GDP, with expectations of rising deficits in the coming years [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth rate of 2.7%, which is below market expectations [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest increase in six months, with a year-over-year growth of 3.1% [3][4] - Weak non-farm payroll data for July, with only 73,000 jobs added, has strengthened market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, expressed that if in the position of the European Union, similar actions would be taken regarding economic policies and responses [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a shared understanding of economic challenges faced by both the U.S. and the EU [1] - Yellen's comments suggest a potential alignment in economic strategies between the U.S. and EU [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the U.S., suggesting a "big fiscal + loose monetary" environment leading to inflation, similar to the pandemic and Biden's era, requiring a compliant Federal Reserve for low interest rates [1][4] - U.S. federal debt has surged to nearly $30 trillion, up from $17 trillion in 2019, with net interest rates increasing from 2.4% to 3.6%, indicating a heavy debt burden [1][4] - The combination of increased revenue from tariffs and reduced interest payments could free up approximately $650 billion for federal finances, potentially offsetting new deficits from the "big beautiful plan" starting in 2026 [6][4] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of the upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks, particularly focusing on tech companies with significant overseas revenue, which may benefit from a weaker dollar [10][16] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue short-term treasury bills to raise cash, with a target to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance to $5 trillion by the end of July [10][11] - The performance of the stock market may face downward pressure if the earnings outlook is not strong, especially if the Federal Reserve does not unexpectedly lower interest rates [11][14] Group 3 - Key earnings reports to watch include ASML, TSMC, and Netflix, with specific focus areas such as revenue performance, market outlook, and subscription growth [16][17] - ASML's earnings will be scrutinized for revenue and gross margin performance, as well as insights on the semiconductor manufacturing sector [17] - Netflix's report will be important for understanding subscription revenue growth and future pricing strategies [17]

Policy Insights - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by the U.S. Senate and House on July 1 and 3, respectively, expected to raise long-term GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points[5] - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3 trillion over the next 10 years (2025-2034) according to dynamic analysis by the Tax Foundation[5] - President Trump announced a new trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam while Vietnam will exempt all U.S. goods from tariffs[5] Economic Data - U.S. June ADP employment change fell to -33,000, significantly below the expected 98,000, marking the worst performance since March 2023[5] - Non-farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 106,000, with April and May figures revised up by 16,000[5] - The unemployment rate in June dropped to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%[5] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices saw gains: S&P 500 up 1.7%, Dow Jones up 2.3%, and Nasdaq up 1.6%[15] - European stocks faced declines, with the STOXX 600 down 0.5% and the Nikkei 225 down 0.9%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 15 basis points to 3.88% and the 10-year yield up 6 basis points to 4.35%[18] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices rose by 1.8% to $3,331.9 per ounce, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively[20] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, down 0.28% for the week, with the euro gaining 0.5% against the dollar[24]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have declined to a low of $3305.92 per ounce following the non-farm payroll report, currently trading around $3309, reflecting weak performance [1] - President Trump is set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss ceasefire details in the Gaza conflict, which has slightly eased market risk sentiment [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the deadline for tariff suspension has been extended to August 1, reducing market concerns [1] - Trump's tax cuts and spending bill, projected to increase U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, potentially benefiting gold in the medium to long term as a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign investors [1] Tariff Policy - In April, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of high tariffs on most major trading partners, set to expire on July 9 [2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that tariffs will be reinstated on August 1 for countries that do not reach a trade agreement, with a letter to be sent to those nations [2] - The August 1 date is not seen as a new deadline but provides more time for trade partners to negotiate [2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, may lead the Fed to maintain a longer wait-and-see approach [4] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis point easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even a potential cut in July due to political pressure [4] - Recent geopolitical easing may exert pressure on gold prices, as Trump discusses ceasefire terms with Netanyahu, potentially reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The easing of geopolitical tensions may temporarily reduce gold's safe-haven demand, but long-term uncertainties remain [5] - Expansionary U.S. fiscal policy and the potential for tariff reinstatement provide underlying support for gold [5] - The Fed's dilemma regarding monetary policy may lead to short-term volatility in gold prices, with traders focusing on tariff policy developments and geopolitical changes this week [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have retraced from a high of $3450, with recent support around $3247, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [8] - Short-term price action shows attempts to challenge the $3300 level, with current trading around $3300 after losing support [8] - Traders are advised to monitor the $3290 to $3345 range for potential breakout opportunities [8]