行情回顾： 国际黄金周三（10月1日）高位回落小幅收涨，开盘价3838.90美元/盎司，最高价3895.19美元/盎司，最低价 3837.90美元/盎司，收盘价3868.44美元/盎司。 消息面： AmeriVet证券公司美国利率交易与策略主管Gregory Faranello表示："就业市场明显走弱，市场之所以有这样的 反应，是因为周五公布官方非农就业报告的可能性似乎不大。再加上官方就业数据此前已进行修正，这既强化 了'美联储将重启降息'的预期，也支撑了'整体利率下行'的趋势判断。" 美国9月ISM制造业PMI录得49.1，高于市场预期49，前值为48.7。 美国供应管理协会（ISM）商业调查委员会主席Susan Spence表示："9月美国制造业活动收缩速度略有放缓， 生产增长是推动制造业PMI上升0.4个百分点的最主要因素。然而，新订单指数与库存指数的合计降幅（4.2个 百分点）超过了生产指数的升幅（3.2个百分点），使得制造业PMI的改善几乎可以忽略不计。8月新订单的增 长（7月至8月指数上升4.3个百分点）似乎已传导至生产环节，但考虑到9月新订单随后回落，这一增长态势恐 难持续。产出方面，生产指数与 ...

Group 1: U.S. National Debt - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, approximately 1.27 times the projected nominal GDP for 2024 [1][2] - As of August 12, 2023, the U.S. national debt reached $37,004,817,625,842 [1] - The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2025, accounting for 6.2% of GDP, with expectations of rising deficits in the coming years [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth rate of 2.7%, which is below market expectations [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest increase in six months, with a year-over-year growth of 3.1% [3][4] - Weak non-farm payroll data for July, with only 73,000 jobs added, has strengthened market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4]

美国财长贝森特：如果身处欧盟的位置，也会这么做。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the U.S., suggesting a "big fiscal + loose monetary" environment leading to inflation, similar to the pandemic and Biden's era, requiring a compliant Federal Reserve for low interest rates [1][4] - U.S. federal debt has surged to nearly $30 trillion, up from $17 trillion in 2019, with net interest rates increasing from 2.4% to 3.6%, indicating a heavy debt burden [1][4] - The combination of increased revenue from tariffs and reduced interest payments could free up approximately $650 billion for federal finances, potentially offsetting new deficits from the "big beautiful plan" starting in 2026 [6][4] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of the upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks, particularly focusing on tech companies with significant overseas revenue, which may benefit from a weaker dollar [10][16] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue short-term treasury bills to raise cash, with a target to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance to $5 trillion by the end of July [10][11] - The performance of the stock market may face downward pressure if the earnings outlook is not strong, especially if the Federal Reserve does not unexpectedly lower interest rates [11][14] Group 3 - Key earnings reports to watch include ASML, TSMC, and Netflix, with specific focus areas such as revenue performance, market outlook, and subscription growth [16][17] - ASML's earnings will be scrutinized for revenue and gross margin performance, as well as insights on the semiconductor manufacturing sector [17] - Netflix's report will be important for understanding subscription revenue growth and future pricing strategies [17]

Policy Insights - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by the U.S. Senate and House on July 1 and 3, respectively, expected to raise long-term GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points[5] - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3 trillion over the next 10 years (2025-2034) according to dynamic analysis by the Tax Foundation[5] - President Trump announced a new trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam while Vietnam will exempt all U.S. goods from tariffs[5] Economic Data - U.S. June ADP employment change fell to -33,000, significantly below the expected 98,000, marking the worst performance since March 2023[5] - Non-farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 106,000, with April and May figures revised up by 16,000[5] - The unemployment rate in June dropped to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%[5] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices saw gains: S&P 500 up 1.7%, Dow Jones up 2.3%, and Nasdaq up 1.6%[15] - European stocks faced declines, with the STOXX 600 down 0.5% and the Nikkei 225 down 0.9%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 15 basis points to 3.88% and the 10-year yield up 6 basis points to 4.35%[18] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices rose by 1.8% to $3,331.9 per ounce, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively[20] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, down 0.28% for the week, with the euro gaining 0.5% against the dollar[24]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have declined to a low of $3305.92 per ounce following the non-farm payroll report, currently trading around $3309, reflecting weak performance [1] - President Trump is set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss ceasefire details in the Gaza conflict, which has slightly eased market risk sentiment [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the deadline for tariff suspension has been extended to August 1, reducing market concerns [1] - Trump's tax cuts and spending bill, projected to increase U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, potentially benefiting gold in the medium to long term as a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign investors [1] Tariff Policy - In April, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of high tariffs on most major trading partners, set to expire on July 9 [2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that tariffs will be reinstated on August 1 for countries that do not reach a trade agreement, with a letter to be sent to those nations [2] - The August 1 date is not seen as a new deadline but provides more time for trade partners to negotiate [2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, may lead the Fed to maintain a longer wait-and-see approach [4] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis point easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even a potential cut in July due to political pressure [4] - Recent geopolitical easing may exert pressure on gold prices, as Trump discusses ceasefire terms with Netanyahu, potentially reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The easing of geopolitical tensions may temporarily reduce gold's safe-haven demand, but long-term uncertainties remain [5] - Expansionary U.S. fiscal policy and the potential for tariff reinstatement provide underlying support for gold [5] - The Fed's dilemma regarding monetary policy may lead to short-term volatility in gold prices, with traders focusing on tariff policy developments and geopolitical changes this week [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have retraced from a high of $3450, with recent support around $3247, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [8] - Short-term price action shows attempts to challenge the $3300 level, with current trading around $3300 after losing support [8] - Traders are advised to monitor the $3290 to $3345 range for potential breakout opportunities [8]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight declines on July 7, with market pressures leading to expectations of further drops, while gold prices also faced downward pressure due to anticipated declines [1] - The U.S. stock market reached record highs, with Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, and a strong employment report dampening hopes for interest rate cuts this month [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term easing [1] - Recent U.S. fiscal policy developments, including a tax cut and spending bill, are projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1] - Tariffs announced in April are set to be reinstated on August 1 for countries without trade agreements with the Trump administration, potentially impacting gold prices [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, complicates the Fed's decision-making process [2] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis points of easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even July due to political pressures [2] - The dual impact of rate cuts on gold prices is noted, where lower rates reduce opportunity costs for holding gold, but rapid cuts could lead to inflationary pressures [2] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to changing rate cut expectations, while long-term support is expected from the Fed's easing stance [2] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, with strategies suggested for both long and short positions based on support and resistance levels [6] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [6] - Technical indicators for silver suggest a cautious trading environment, with recommendations for light positions and careful stop-loss settings [6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes entering short positions around $36.90 with a stop-loss at $37.30 and a take-profit target between $36.00 and $35.90 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Senate version of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the federal budget deficit by an additional $95 billion over 10 years (from fiscal year 2025 to 2034) compared to the House version, intensifying the US fiscal balance pressure. The Trump administration will mainly rely on tariffs and cuts in government discretionary spending to balance the deficit [3][11]. - If the Trump administration significantly raises tariffs, it may face more domestic resistance and cause greater inflation uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the US government's financing difficulties. The Fed may restart interest rate cuts in October after observing the impact of tariffs on inflation from June to August [3][12]. - In July, US tariff policies will reach two critical junctures. On July 9, the tariff grace - period for most trading partners expires. A significant tariff increase may benefit gold and harm US Treasuries, while a reduction in trade friction has the opposite effect. Around the end of July, the US Federal Appellate Court will hold a hearing on a tariff ruling. If the court does not support the Trump administration, it may increase concerns about US fiscal balance and harm US Treasuries [3][14]. - From June 30 to July 5, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.75% week - on - week and decreased by 16.16% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 2.26% week - on - week, but the year - on - year decline widened to 9.35%. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.20% week - on - week and decreased by 5.23% year - on - year [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The Senate version of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the federal budget deficit by an additional $95 billion over 10 years compared to the House version. The Trump administration will mainly rely on tariffs and cuts in government discretionary spending to balance the deficit. After the bill passes, the US fiscal balance pressure increases, and there is uncertainty about future fiscal policies [11]. - If the Trump administration significantly raises tariffs, it may face more domestic resistance and cause greater inflation uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the US government's financing difficulties. The Fed may restart interest rate cuts in October after observing the impact of tariffs on inflation from June to August [12]. - In July, US tariff policies will reach two critical junctures. On July 9, the tariff grace - period for most trading partners expires. A significant tariff increase may benefit gold and harm US Treasuries, while a reduction in trade friction has the opposite effect. Around the end of July, the US Federal Appellate Court will hold a hearing on a tariff ruling. If the court does not support the Trump administration, it may increase concerns about US fiscal balance and harm US Treasuries. The risk of the US unilaterally escalating tariffs in the short - term is relatively high [14]. - The report provides week - on - week and year - on - year data on various high - frequency indicators such as food, energy, and metals, including the average wholesale price of pork, vegetable prices, and crude oil prices [17][18]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators - The document shows the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators through multiple charts, and the data sources are mainly Wind and BOC Securities [22]. Key High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents US and European high - frequency indicators through charts, including US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, and the data sources are mainly Wind, Bloomberg, and BOC Securities [77][80][81]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, and the data sources are mainly Wind and BOC Securities [90]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen through charts, and the data source is Wind [141][143].

Group 1: Market Performance - On July 7, 2025, Shanghai gold futures (Au) rose 0.19% to 777.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 0.16% to 8931.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.11% to 3346.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.14% to 37.14 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.35%, and the US dollar index was 96.99 [2]. - Au(T+D) closed at 771.57 yuan/gram, down 0.55% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8885.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.49%. London gold closed at 3331.90 dollars/ounce, down 0.01%, and London silver closed at 36.89 dollars/ounce, up 0.01%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.66 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to 14868.74 tons [5]. Group 2: Employment Data Analysis - In June 2025, the US added 147,000 non-farm payrolls, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, the government employment sub - item in non - farm payrolls was as high as 73,000, much higher than the previous value of 7,000. The previously announced ADP employment population decreased by 33,000, lower than the expected increase of 95,000 and the previous increase of 29,000. Excluding the government employment sub - item, only the education and health services (adding 51,000) and construction (adding 15,000) sectors showed resilience, indicating a weakening labor market [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Interest Expense - On July 3, 2025, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful Act" proposed by Trump. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the act would increase the US fiscal deficit by 2.77 trillion dollars in the next ten fiscal years and raise the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars, leading to greater debt issuance pressure in the second half of the year. As of May, the cumulative issuance of US Treasury bonds this year was only 281.3 billion dollars, a 56.1% year - on - year decrease. The US Treasury cash account balance was only 372.2 billion dollars, far below the recommended 850 billion dollars, creating a financing demand of nearly 500 billion dollars [3]. - The current average interest rate of US Treasury bonds is 3.294%, and the cumulative interest expense this year has reached 776 billion dollars. Net interest expense is the third - largest fiscal expenditure item after social security and medical insurance. If the US Treasury issues more bonds in a high - interest - rate environment, interest expenses will be difficult to control, increasing the deficit and squeezing other fiscal expenditure items, which is the reason for Trump's dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Powell [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The game between Powell and the Trump administration on monetary policy will give way to the sustainable development of US finance. Further monetary easing by the Fed in the second half of the year is certain. The Fed is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at the July meeting but show a more dovish stance, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [4]. - In the context of the expected easing of Fed monetary policy, attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on silver. Gold will perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the expectation of loose US fiscal policy. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver futures contract is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 5: Market Data Tables - A table shows the closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and year - on - year changes of various precious metals, US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, stock market indices, etc [5]. - Another table presents the key data of gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, etc., as well as their daily changes, daily price increases or decreases, and historical quantiles in the past year [8]. - There is also a table about the internal and external price differences of gold and silver on July 4, 2025, including the prices of COMEX and domestic futures, exchange rates, and price differences [50].

Core Viewpoint - Bridgewater believes that the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation and economic growth has not fully manifested yet [1] Economic Impact - Some effects of tariffs are beginning to transmit along expected paths, but the impact on corporate investment due to tariff uncertainty remains relatively limited [1] - The U.S. economy is approaching full capacity, and fiscal policy may drag down growth in the short term [1] Fiscal Policy - Once budget measures like the "Build Back Better Act" are implemented, fiscal policy is expected to support the economy [1] Monetary Policy - The likelihood of significant adjustments in U.S. monetary policy in the near term is low, aligning with current market pricing [1]