国庆中秋长假期间，国际金价大幅度上涨。 6股获得10家以上机构评级 据证券时报·数据宝统计，A股中黄金板块个股共有13只，下半年以来平均上涨35.14%，豫光金铅、中 金黄金、鹏欣资源涨幅居前，分别达到72.28%、53.94%、52.39%。招金黄金、四川黄金、赤峰黄金相 对滞涨，累计涨幅均在20%以内。 有色金属上涨主要受美国联邦政府"停摆"影响。据央视新闻报道，当地时间10月7日，据美国国会消 息，美国参议院多数党领袖、共和党参议员约翰·图恩（John Thune）表示，参议院将于8日再次就两项 短期拨款法案进行表决，其中包括众议院通过的共和党版本及民主党替代方案。这将是参议院第六次尝 试通过临时支出法案来终止联邦政府"停摆"，前五次均未获通过。此外，多国政坛出现新变数，法国、 日本等国的政坛变动加剧投资者担忧，推动金价上涨。 各国央行持续增持黄金，亦对金价有一定程度的推动。央行数据显示，中国9月末黄金储备报7406万盎 司，环比增加4万盎司，为连续第11个月增持黄金。世界黄金协会数据显示，各经济体央行仍是全球黄 金需求的重要支柱，二季度全球官方黄金储备共计增加166吨。尽管购金步伐有所放缓，但央行购金 ...

国庆假期接近尾声，国际金价触及4000美元/盎司。 10月7日，COMEX黄金期货价格最高触及4000.1美元/盎司，截至发稿，纽约期金涨幅收窄至0.15%左 右，报3982.2美元/盎司，年初至今涨超44%。 分析人士认为，美国政府"停摆"引发的避险情绪升温，黄金配置需求再度被推高。受金价持续走高影 响，周一相关港股集体走强。截至10月6日收盘，紫金黄金国际涨8.2%，山东黄金涨5.2%，赤峰黄金涨 4.8%。 金价方面，2025年黄金价格接连突破3300、3500、3800美元关口，不断刷新创历史高位。如今COMEX 黄金期货价格最高触及4000.1美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅超过44%。现货黄金价格累计涨幅已达1300美 元/盎司，大涨超50%。 目前，市场依旧看好金价上行动能。 诺安基金预计，黄金中长期上涨趋势不改，建议投资者逢调整逐步增加黄金配置比例。诺安基金预计， 年内美联储利率决策主要取决于美国劳动力市场变化，通胀压力次之，美联储政策基调逐步转向鸽派， 叠加央行增持、美元信用受到冲击等因素，金价或将持续受到支撑。 一德期货分析预计，回顾在三季度，在货币属性自宏观维度主导金价的过程中，美元指数和美国实 ...

Company Developments - CATL's second phase project for battery cell and pack factories in Luoyang has officially commenced production, with plans to increase annual capacity by 30 GWh upon full operation, following the first phase's production of 30 GWh set to begin in November 2024 [9] - Xiaomi's smartphone division president reported that the sales of the Xiaomi 17 series have significantly increased by over 20% compared to the same period last year, with the Pro series exceeding expectations and actively restocking [9] - Meta's CTO announced that the Meta Ray-Ban Display smart glasses are nearly sold out in retail stores nationwide, with trial appointments fully booked until November [9] - Tesla's CEO released a video of the "Optimus" humanoid robot learning martial arts, indicating the company's efforts to scale up production of this product, which is expected to become one of its most important offerings [9] - OpenAI is set to hold a developer day on October 6, with market expectations for the launch of new consumer-level AI products and a potential AI browser to challenge Google's Chrome, marking a significant shift from reliance on the ChatGPT subscription model [9] Industry Insights - The Chinese mooncake market is projected to reach a scale of 32.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 8%, with low-sugar and sugar-free mooncakes gaining market share, indicating a trend towards healthier options [4] - A-share market sentiment post-National Day holiday appears positive, with private equity firms expressing confidence in continued market support due to ample liquidity and a recovering economy [7] - Several domestic and foreign institutions remain bullish on the Chinese stock market, with some suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may offer better investment opportunities compared to A-shares [7] - Sunshine Power, a major player in the photovoltaic sector, has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its global strategy and brand image [13]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold has surpassed the $3750 per ounce mark, reaching a new historical high of $3758.17 on September 23, 2023, before slightly retreating to $3753.85, reflecting a 0.21% increase [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.07%, reaching $3782.40 per ounce [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with Lao Miao gold priced at 1097 yuan per gram, up from 1084 yuan per gram the previous day [4] Group 2: Market Influences and Outlook - The gold market experienced fluctuations due to hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, but overall adjustments were limited due to persistent risk aversion [6] - Long-term perspectives indicate that the increasing risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy, along with a potential shift to a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, could favor gold as an asset [6] - Global geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing international tensions are expected to elevate demand for gold, supporting its price [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, and further rate cuts are anticipated in the remaining meetings of the year [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 75 basis points by Q1 2026, prioritizing labor market weakness over temporary inflation increases [1] - Bank of America indicates that Waller, a potential successor to Powell, seems satisfied with a 25 basis point rate cut, but internal debates on further easing remain intense due to rising inflation pressures and a deteriorating labor market [2] - ING reports that the Fed's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points is overall bearish for the dollar, with expectations of two more cuts this year [3] Group 2: UK Central Bank Expectations - TD Securities anticipates the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 basis points in November, maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy [4] - Danske Bank notes that the Bank of England's recent decisions lack hawkish signals, with expectations for a rate cut in November and a gradual approach to easing [6] - Deutsche Bank highlights internal divisions within the Bank of England regarding monetary policy, predicting a rate cut in December [8] Group 3: Industry and Company Developments - CITIC Securities recommends focusing on opportunities in the photovoltaic industry, citing new energy consumption standards that could improve profitability [7] - Huatai Securities suggests that gold prices may face short-term pressure following the Fed's rate cut, but long-term investment value remains intact due to ongoing economic concerns [8] - CITIC Securities highlights Huawei's Ascend product line, which aims to accelerate breakthroughs in domestic computing power [9] - CITIC Securities expects a turning point in the performance growth of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year, with positive outlooks for sectors like technology and healthcare [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent activity in gold stocks is attributed to the rebound in spot gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics for gold investments [1] Group 1: Gold Stock Performance - Shandong Gold (01787) increased by 5.12%, reaching HKD 35.34 [1] - Lingbao Gold (03330) rose by 3.47%, trading at HKD 16.38 [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) saw a 3.18% increase, priced at HKD 29.24 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) gained 3.11%, with a price of HKD 29.18 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Spot gold prices have rebounded above USD 3,650 following the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - Huatai Securities views the rate cut as a preventive measure, suggesting that gold prices may form a "phase top" after a certain period post-cut [1] - The long-term value of gold remains intact due to persistent inflation and economic adjustments, alongside expectations of a more accommodative Fed post-2026 [1] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and the need for diversified investment portfolios are driving central banks and institutional investors to increase their gold allocations [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with projections indicating an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end, aligning with market expectations [1] - Short-term, the rate cut may lead to a "sell the fact" pressure on gold prices, as the benefits of the cut have been fully priced in [1] - The current rate cut is characterized as a preemptive measure, with historical reference suggesting that gold prices may form a "phase top" after the cut [1] Group 2 - Long-term, the value of gold as an investment remains unchanged due to the Fed's continued rate cut path amidst economic adjustments and persistent inflation concerns [1] - The trend of de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and the need for diversified investment portfolios are driving global central banks and institutional investors to increase their gold allocations [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which includes 50 listed companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry chain [1]

Group 1 - Bridgewater believes that despite the significant rise in gold prices, it still holds allocation value and can provide diversification benefits to investment portfolios [1] - Citic Securities predicts that changes in tariffs, U.S. fiscal policy, geopolitical factors, and central bank gold purchases could initiate an upward trend in gold prices, forecasting a price above $3730 per ounce by year-end under a neutral scenario [2] - Goldman Sachs has a baseline forecast that gold prices will soar to $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, with a tail risk scenario suggesting prices could reach $4500; if 1% of private U.S. Treasury funds flow into gold, prices could approach $5000 [3] Group 2 - GoldSilver Central notes that while there has been some profit-taking in the gold market, it remains in a bull market; expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve will increase safe-haven demand, with potential for prices to rise to $3800 or higher in the short term [4] - TD Securities has closed a tactical long position in gold, but remains bullish on gold strategically, citing a diminishing appeal of the dollar as a store of value; the firm will continue to seek opportunities to re-enter the upward trend as long as this macro theme persists [5] - Forexlive highlights that gold typically performs poorly in September but is expected to see seasonal strength from November to February; thus, any price pullback may present a buying opportunity, although risks remain if Trump’s tariffs face legal and congressional challenges [6]

Group 1: US-Russia Relations - President Trump stated that the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine depends on President Putin [1] - Putin expressed interest in a meeting with Trump and mentioned the UAE as a suitable location for such a meeting [1] - Putin indicated that conditions need to be created for a potential meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky [1] Group 2: Israel-Gaza Conflict - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced plans for military control over the entire Gaza Strip, aiming to transfer governance to capable Arab forces [2] - Hamas condemned Netanyahu's statements, claiming they reflect a continuation of violence against Palestinians and a rejection of negotiation processes [2] - Hamas warned that any forces formed under Netanyahu's plan would be viewed as occupying forces [2] Group 3: UK Monetary Policy - The Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in a year [3] - The Bank cited ongoing economic stagnation and rising inflation, with food prices contributing to an expected peak inflation rate of 4% in September [3] - The rate cut aligns with market expectations amid concerns over rising unemployment and global trade impacts from US tariff policies [3] Group 4: US Federal Reserve Appointments - President Trump nominated Stephen Moore to fill a vacant position on the Federal Reserve Board, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [4][5] - Moore previously served as a senior economic advisor at the Treasury during Trump's first term and holds a PhD in economics from Harvard [5] Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have rebounded and are experiencing high volatility, with New York gold reaching $3,470.3 per ounce on August 7 [6] - The rebound is attributed to disappointing US employment data and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's potential rate cuts and ongoing economic uncertainties will support gold prices in the medium term [8]

Economic Indicators - The July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, which was below the expected 108,000, indicating a cooling labor market[5] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while the labor participation rate decreased to 62.2%[5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, showing a slight increase but maintaining a downward trend in the two-month moving average[5] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 2.92%, S&P 500 by 2.36%, and Nasdaq by 2.17% following the non-farm data release[6] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded above 100 but fell back to 98.69 after the non-farm data, resulting in a weekly increase of 1.04%[6] - Gold prices saw a slight increase of 0.79%, while Brent crude oil rose by 2.84% during the same period[6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The FOMC's July meeting indicated a hawkish stance, with no guidance on potential rate cuts in September, leading to mixed market expectations[4] - As of August 4, market expectations for rate cuts in September, October, and December were each set at 25 basis points, reflecting a shift in sentiment following the labor market data[4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to resume rate cuts, recommending investment in gold and emerging markets during a weak dollar cycle[7] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring overseas liquidity and geopolitical risks as potential threats to market stability[7]