2025年黄金市场大涨大跌，有投资者一夜暴富，也有投资者交了"最痛的学费"。 "金价一直在飙升，现在买一克968元，买200克金条回家放着，等金价涨到1200元一克的时候再出手卖掉，这样或许就能赚到一笔钱。"小雪计划。 10月以来购买黄金产品消费者经历了坐"过山车"般的心路历程，连续20天累计超10%的国际金价涨幅，让不少"攒金人"躬身入局，高点入手金条、金饰、 积存金等黄金产品。本想通过一直上涨的金价赚一笔，却没想到事与愿违，经历了20天的上升期，国际金价开始回撤，跌幅一度超过5%，随后连续几日 均出现下跌。 与此同时，多家国内品牌金店足金饰品的挂牌价格也已从高点的1294元/克降至1200元/克以下，金条价格也一路走跌。 "9天亏了1.46万元，金价起起落落，真的不能跟风炒黄金。"消费者小雪（化名）说道。 这场"黄金热"的影响，也正顺着婚俗链条传导至备婚群体。作为传统婚俗中必备的"五金"，其成本随金价水涨船高，让新人陷入两难。有备婚青年为等金 价回落已将婚期推迟两年，"从500多等到1000元，越等越慌，双方家庭在买金预算上始终谈不拢"。 全球知名对冲基金——桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing trend of central banks, particularly in China and Poland, to accumulate gold reserves amid rising gold prices and geopolitical uncertainties, indicating a shift in global financial strategies. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces as of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of net purchases [1] - Poland's central bank has emerged as the largest gold buyer this year, acquiring a total of 67 tons in the first half, bringing its total gold reserves to 515 tons, which constitutes 22% of its foreign exchange reserves [3] - Turkey's central bank added 17 tons of gold in the first quarter of 2025, raising its total reserves to 635 tons, accounting for over 50% of global central bank purchases during that quarter [3] Group 2: Changes in Reserve Asset Structure - As of September, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,387 billion, reflecting a slight increase of $165 million from the previous month, while the internal structure of these reserves is undergoing changes [5] - Since April 2022, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have remained below $1 trillion, indicating a trend of reduction in U.S. debt holdings [5][7] - The UK has surpassed China to become the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds after increasing its holdings by $28.9 billion [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley's strategy team predicts that gold prices could double within three years as investors increasingly use gold to hedge against stock market volatility [10] - A record 95% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves within the next 12 months, up from 81% the previous year [12] - The article suggests that while gold will not completely replace dollar assets, it will play an increasingly significant role in reserve systems, reflecting a diversified approach to managing uncertainty [17]

Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have reached a record annual increase, but this high growth is accompanied by significant volatility risks [1] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The trend of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts typically leads to sustained capital inflows into the gold market [1] - As long as this core driving trend remains unchanged, the long-term upward potential for gold prices is unlikely to be reversed [1]

来源：市场资讯 我在之前的文章中也提到过，黄金现在具有一定的债券属性，黄金上涨的核心动力并不来自于ETF或散 户的配置，而是来自于各国央行的超额配置。过去，各国央行的主要配置资产是美债，作为第一大配 置。但现在，虽然美债仍然是主要配置资产之一，但其配置比例已大幅下降。与此相对应，黄金的配置 比例显著提升，成为各大主流国家央行的第二大核心资产。 （来源：巴蜀养基场） 因为今年黄金的表现太过亮眼，成为了所有资产中最靓的那个仔。但更多的人对于黄金的前期配置并没 有很多，所以，市场的下跌或许恰恰给了这些投资者可以配置的机会，至少在嘴巴上大家都是这么说 的。就如同，在资本市场投资时大家会经常说的话一样："等到市场再到2600点的时候，我会全仓杀 入。"但等市场真的到了2600点时，他们不仅不会全仓买入，反而跑得比谁都快。 如果市场再给你一次重来的机会，你会怎么办？希望你能够抓住这样的机会。对于我来说，就在等待这 样的机会。 但目前的跌幅，对于黄金来说，算不算机会已经到来了呢？如果是纯定投是可以随时参与的，但如果从 理性的角度出发，单笔投资可能还需要继续等待。我的观点一直是：宁愿错过，不要过错。并且在我看 来，从来没有什 ...

四位大咖把脉全球资产配置。 10月21日，中共深圳市委金融委员会、福田区人民政府指导，中国保险资产管理业协会特别支持，由深 圳市财富管理协会主办的2025香蜜湖财富管理周·湾区财富管理高质量发展交流会在深圳举行。 在交流会上，中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长彭文生，国信证券首席经济学 家、经济研究所所长荀玉根，摩根士丹利首席中国股票策略师王滢和瑞银财富管理大中华区投资总监及 亚太区宏观经济主管胡一帆，四位顶级机构经济学家就全球宏观环境与中国市场投资机会发表最新观 点。 多位经济学家认为，在全球投资多元化趋势明显的背景下，中国资产尤其是科技领域正迎来重估机会， 而黄金作为避险工具仍具配置价值。 中金彭文生：风险溢价下降推动A股上涨 中金公司首席经济学家彭文生在主题演讲中表示，今年A股市场表现强劲，持续上涨，不是来自于企业 盈利的改善，而是主要源于风险溢价下降，反映市场对未来预期已明显改善。 "去年9月以来，宏观政策变化，加上今年初DeepSeek的出现，对中国资产重估，推动资金转向股票等风 险资产，尤其是配置科技领域。"彭文生分析道。 彭文生分析，在新的地缘政治格局下，中国面临两个方面的挑战。 ...

格隆汇10月22日｜隔夜国际贵金属巨震，金价创下12年来最大单日跌幅，今日黄金ETF华夏跌5%，港A 股黄金概念股全线下挫，湖南白银逼近跌停，白银有色（维权）跌超8%，黄金股ETF跌3.8%。 华尔街近期纷纷上调明年金价目标：高盛将2026年12月黄金价格预期上调至每盎司4900美元。美银、法 国兴业银行认为明年金价将升至5000美元。桥水基金创始人达利欧认为应该从战略配置角度，而不 是"押注涨跌"角度去考虑黄金，对大多数投资者而言，黄金在组合中配置比例大概在10%至15%之间是 合理的。 相关产品，及截至发稿涨跌幅： 费率成本最低的黄金、白银相关企业集合ETF：黄金股ETF(159562)，-3.8%，近20个交易日净流入12亿 元，跟踪的指数SSH黄金股票的成分股以黄金、铜占主导，同样包含白银有色、湖南白银等白银金属上 市公司。 同标的最低费率的黄金ETF、可T+0交易：黄金ETF华夏(518850)，-5.12%，连续21日"吸金"，合计净流 入26亿元。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 俄乌局势重大转折，国际贸易谈判出现积极态势，美元指数走强，以及黄金短期技术面超买等因素均导 致价格剧烈波动。 ...

格隆汇10月21日｜新加坡银行外汇策略师Sim Moh Siong在一份研究报告中说，在金价回落的情况下， 投资者可能会继续热衷于增加黄金配置。最近金价的上涨幅度可能有点太大、太快了。然而，对G10财 政可持续性和央行独立性的担忧将持续到2026年，因此很难断言黄金是否会很快见顶。新加坡银行将其 未来12个月黄金价格预测上调至每盎司4600美元。 ...

先说学技能这事儿。 现在企业裁员专挑没特长的人下手。 有数据显示，2024年互联网行业裁员中，73%被优化掉的员工只会单一技能。 相反，那些会视频 剪辑、数据分析的同事，反而涨了工资。 我认识个朋友，白天是会计，晚上学编程。 后来公司裁员，他直接转行当了程序员，工资翻了一倍。 还有个大姐，45岁了去学营养师课程，现在兼职做健 康顾问，每月多赚5000块。 技能这东西，比存款靠谱多了。 存款会越存越少，技能却越用越值钱。 现在线上课程便宜得很，几百块就能学个短视频剪辑，学好了接单子，一条视频能 赚300-500元。 黄金这两年真是疯涨。 2025年开年到现在，金价已经涨了50%，是1979年以来涨得最猛的一次。 去年买金条的人，现在都赚笑了。 你还在往银行里存钱吗？ 告诉你个吓人的数字：现在存10万元进银行，一年利息只有1350元，比前几年直接少了900块。 这钱不光没变多，连猪肉涨价都跑 不赢，去年猪肉涨了15%，你的存款利息才1.35%，相当于白存了！ 现在全国有超过100万亿的存款躺在银行账户里睡大觉。 这些钱正以每年2?%的速度缩水，因为物价涨得比利息快多了。 去年一碗牛肉面还20块，今年就要 22了， ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market in October shows a "divergent" pattern between international and domestic prices, driven by three core factors: policy support, credit system impacts, and domestic currency fluctuations [3][4]. Group 1: Core Drivers of Price Movement - **Policy and Credit Support**: The Federal Reserve's easing measures, including a 25 basis point rate cut in September and a 97.3% probability of another cut in October, have led to a decrease in real interest rates, which supports gold prices. The World Gold Council indicates that for every 10 basis point drop in real rates, gold prices could rise by $28 [3]. - **Impact of U.S. Credit System**: The U.S. fiscal deficit for FY 2025 is projected at $2.15 trillion (8.1% of GDP), with interest payments consuming 18.7% of fiscal revenue, surpassing the critical threshold for gold returns. Central banks are accelerating de-dollarization, with net gold purchases reaching 987 tons in the first three quarters of the year [3]. Group 2: Domestic Price Fluctuations - **Exchange Rate and Trading Time Effects**: The short-term decline in Shanghai gold prices is attributed to a stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and fluctuations in international markets during domestic trading hours. However, the long-term correlation between domestic and international gold prices remains strong at over 0.9 [4]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - **Positive Factors Supporting Price Increase**: Both UBS and the World Gold Council believe that gold prices will not have sustained downward pressure, with potential to break above $4,500 due to expected further rate cuts and strong central bank demand [5]. - **Risk Factors for Potential Correction**: Short-term crowded positions in COMEX gold futures and potential economic data surprises, such as stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls, could lead to a correction of up to 10% [6][7]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - **Short-term Strategy (1-3 months)**: Recommended tools include gold ETFs and Shanghai gold T+D, with a suggested allocation of 10%-15% of liquid assets. The strategy involves taking advantage of short-term volatility and increasing positions during significant pullbacks [8][9]. - **Medium-term Strategy (3-12 months)**: Suggested tools include physical gold and quality gold stocks, with a recommended allocation of 15%-20% of total assets. The focus is on long-term inflation protection and capital appreciation [10][11]. - **Long-term Strategy (1 year and beyond)**: Recommended tools include gold ETF linked funds and gold trust plans, with a suggested allocation of 20%-30% of total assets. Historical data indicates strong returns when U.S. debt interest exceeds 15% of revenue [12][13]. Group 5: Key Reminders for Investment - **Avoiding Common Mistakes**: Investors should not chase high prices, maintain a diversified portfolio, and ensure transactions are conducted through reputable channels [14][15].

Group 1 - Spot gold reached $4,140 per ounce, increasing by 0.70% on the day, while the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) opened high and rose by 2.2%, hitting a new intraday high with a net inflow of 0.11 billion yuan yesterday [1] - The A-share market saw all three major indices open higher, with the CSI A500 Index (000510.CSI) rising by 0.86%. Notable performers included Baogang Group hitting the daily limit, Sanhuan Group increasing over 13%, and Quzhou Development rising nearly 10% [3] - The CSI A500 ETF Tianhong (159360) increased by 0.89%, with a latest circulating share count of 1.385 billion and a circulating scale of 1.72 billion yuan as of October 13 [3] Group 2 - Longjiang Securities indicated that the recent tariff increases by the Trump administration are driven by high U.S. debt levels and declining manufacturing competitiveness, leading to a weakening dollar and increased gold purchases by central banks to mitigate political risks [4] - The weak dollar trend is expected to continue, suggesting that gold retains its allocation value from an asset perspective [4]