市场对此已作出理性反应。联邦基金期货市场显示，投资者对年内进一步降息的预期较上月有所收敛，反映出对政策不确定性的重新定价。这种市场预期调 整，实质是政策制定者与市场参与者对经济前景判断的动态博弈过程。 美联储政策路径将取决于通胀下行速度与劳动力市场韧性的相对表现。若服务业通胀持续高位运行，或劳动力市场出现超预期降温，政策节奏可能再度调 整。但可以确定的是，在通胀目标实现前，联储将维持"数据依赖型"决策框架，在保持政策灵活性的同时，强化通胀承诺的可信度——这既是维护物价稳定 的制度要求，也是避免市场预期紊乱的关键所在。 古尔斯比则从数据可得性角度补充政策挑战：政府停摆导致关键经济数据缺失，使利率路径制定面临信息真空。他特别强调需持续监测服务业通胀回升态 势，并警惕就业市场结构性失衡风险。两位官员的表态共同强化了"渐进主义"政策倾向——在通胀风险与增长风险间寻求动态平衡。 这种政策审慎性具有经济学逻辑支撑。根据菲利普斯曲线理论，通胀与失业率存在长期替代关系，但本轮周期中供给冲击与需求韧性导致曲线形态发生变 化。联储需要在避免"工资-价格螺旋"的同时，防止政策紧缩过度引发失业率骤升。洛根提出的"政策正常化放缓"策略 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's rate cut pace, arguing that the U.S. does not face inflation [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a shift in policy focus, prioritizing employment concerns over inflation [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to provide financial support to the banking system and prevent systemic crises [2] - The Great Depression in 1929 highlighted the limitations of the Fed, leading to reforms that expanded its role in monetary and credit regulation [2] - The dual mandate of stabilizing prices and promoting maximum employment was formalized in the 1977 Federal Reserve Reform Act [3] Group 3 - The 1970s stagflation challenged the prevailing economic theories, leading to a new focus on both inflation and employment [3] - Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker implemented aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which solidified the Fed's dual mandate in practice [4] - The Fed adopted an inflation target of 2% in the 1990s, while employment targets remained more flexible [4][5] Group 4 - The dual mandate framework has been criticized for its short-term focus, neglecting structural economic issues [5] - The 2008 financial crisis exposed the risks of the Fed's low-interest rate policies and lack of regulatory oversight [6] - The complexity of the current economic landscape poses significant challenges for the Fed in assessing market conditions and risks [6][7] Group 5 - Chairman Powell acknowledged the current economic challenges, highlighting the dual risks of weak employment and rising inflation [7] - The Fed faces increasing difficulty in balancing immediate issues with long-term risks, complicating its policy decisions [7]