1月8日,据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示,美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为88.4%,降息25个基点的概率仅11.6%。这一数据与当前XBIT对市场预期判断高度 吻合,折射出当前货币政策决策的复杂争议。 政策僵局中的数据博弈 美联储12月会议纪要中"维持利率不变"获得全体票委支持,这种共识在2025年出现明显裂痕。当前88.4%的维持概率背后,是就业市场与通胀数据的激烈拉 锯:2025年8月新增非农就业仅2.2万人,失业率攀升至4.3%,但核心PCE通胀仍维持在2.6%的相对高位。这种"类滞胀"格局使货币政策陷入两难。 大宗商品市场面临重构压力。黄金价格在政策不确定性推动下累计上涨28%,远超其他大宗商品。而WTI原油价格在65美元/桶附近震荡,显示降息对工业品价 格的传导存在滞后性。全球投资者正在增加贵金属配置比例,减少对能源商品的依赖。 在通胀治理层面,美联储面临双重挑战。一方面,关税政策导致企业将成本转嫁至消费者,2025年8月CPI同比上涨3.1%;另一方面,劳动力供给收缩推升结构性通 胀,服务业价格指数同比上涨4.2%。相关经济模型显示,这种供需双降的"奇特平衡"状态,使传统菲利普斯曲线理论面临根 ...

Core Insights - The recent statements from Dallas Fed President Logan and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee highlight the complexities in economic policy-making amid inflation challenges and sticky service prices [1][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Considerations - The Fed's recent 25 basis point preventive rate cut is seen as an insurance measure against potential labor market risks, with the current policy rate of 4%-4.25% nearing the upper limit of neutral rate estimates [3] - Logan warns that excessive rate cuts could lead to policy reversal risks and complicate the achievement of price stability targets, reflecting a cautious stance within the Fed [3] - The dot plot indicates that most of the 19 decision-makers support two more 25 basis point cuts before December, while a minority advocates for a pause or larger cuts [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Goolsbee emphasizes the challenges posed by the government shutdown, which has resulted in missing key economic data, creating an information vacuum for interest rate path decisions [3] - The market has adjusted its expectations for further rate cuts this year, reflecting a recalibration of policy uncertainty and a dynamic interplay between policymakers and market participants [4] - The Fed's policy trajectory will depend on the pace of inflation decline and the resilience of the labor market, with a focus on maintaining a "data-dependent" decision-making framework [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's rate cut pace, arguing that the U.S. does not face inflation [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a shift in policy focus, prioritizing employment concerns over inflation [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to provide financial support to the banking system and prevent systemic crises [2] - The Great Depression in 1929 highlighted the limitations of the Fed, leading to reforms that expanded its role in monetary and credit regulation [2] - The dual mandate of stabilizing prices and promoting maximum employment was formalized in the 1977 Federal Reserve Reform Act [3] Group 3 - The 1970s stagflation challenged the prevailing economic theories, leading to a new focus on both inflation and employment [3] - Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker implemented aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which solidified the Fed's dual mandate in practice [4] - The Fed adopted an inflation target of 2% in the 1990s, while employment targets remained more flexible [4][5] Group 4 - The dual mandate framework has been criticized for its short-term focus, neglecting structural economic issues [5] - The 2008 financial crisis exposed the risks of the Fed's low-interest rate policies and lack of regulatory oversight [6] - The complexity of the current economic landscape poses significant challenges for the Fed in assessing market conditions and risks [6][7] Group 5 - Chairman Powell acknowledged the current economic challenges, highlighting the dual risks of weak employment and rising inflation [7] - The Fed faces increasing difficulty in balancing immediate issues with long-term risks, complicating its policy decisions [7]