Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [2][4] - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range and be sorted out, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown times, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in oscillation yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated within a range. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, and the June retail sales data increased by 0.6%. Fed Governor Kugler said that the Fed should not cut interest rates "for some time" [2] - As of Thursday this week, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 89.07 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate increased by 0.82 percentage points to 80.74% [3] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [3] - On July 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 492,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 26,000 tons from last Thursday. Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots [3] - The current off - season inventory is fluctuating, and the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing is increasing, and attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies [4]