伦敦现货价白银美 元_20250113_173521.xlsx 金属行业 2026 年度展望（Ⅱ）：弱供给周 期下的行业配置属性再探讨—流动性溢 价将支撑贵金属定价重心持续上移 2025 年 12 月 16 日 看好/维持 有色金属 行业报告 | 分析师 | 张天丰 电话：021-25102914 邮箱：zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480520100001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究助理 | 闵泓朴 电话：021-65462553 邮箱：minhp-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480124060003 | 投资摘要： 全球实际利率成本下降有助商品价格弹性释放。从综合统计的数据观察，全球央行降息比例已由 22 年 10 月的 13.33%大幅攀升至 25 年 10 月的 85.33%，全球央行净降息比例则由同期的-73.33%上涨至+86.08%。数据的变化确定性地标志着自美联储 24 年 9 月的首次降息开启后， 全球货币政策由紧缩周期向宽松周期的转向。这也意味着在中长期，全球资金市场金融条件的宽松将会带来核心区域经济增长 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is above 8.728, with an opening price of 8.719 and a current price of 8.735, reflecting a 0.24% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 8.764, while the lowest is 8.695, indicating a short-term bearish trend in silver [1] - The resistance level for silver is identified in the range of 8.749-8.752, while the support level is noted at 8.724-8.703 [4] Group 2 - The UK unemployment rate continues to rise, reaching its highest level since 2021, which may influence the Bank of England's decision to lower interest rates despite ongoing inflation pressures [3] - The total wage growth rate for three months in May is reported at 1.0%, with regular wage growth at 1.1%, marking the lowest levels since mid-2023 [3] - Any potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by the Trump administration could severely impact the US dollar, with expectations of a more dovish replacement potentially lowering short-term yields [3]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term investment in gold is being questioned, particularly regarding its ability to maintain its inflation-hedging premium in the current economic climate [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Powell emphasizes the importance of current data in assessing economic conditions, suggesting that market participants should focus on real-time indicators rather than historical trends [1] - There is skepticism about the lagging effects of tariffs on the economy, which could impact inflation and, consequently, the attractiveness of gold as an investment [1] Group 2: Gold's Investment Appeal - The article raises the question of whether gold can regain its status as a reliable hedge against inflation, given the changing economic landscape and investor sentiment [1]