Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is undergoing an unprecedented valuation reassessment, with gold prices breaking the historical high of $5360.60 in Comex April futures, marking the largest single-day increase in USD history, driven by a weakening dollar and heightened demand for hard assets [1][2]. Macroeconomic Policy - The Federal Reserve recently concluded its FOMC meeting, deciding to maintain the interest rate range at 3.5% to 3.75%. Despite claims of robust economic growth and stable unemployment, the market has detected concerns regarding low job growth and persistent inflation, creating significant speculative space for the gold market [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The current US dollar index is at a four-year low, experiencing significant single-day declines, largely influenced by the administration's tacit approval of currency depreciation. The market is adapting to a new norm of "weak dollar and economic growth coexisting," with gold being the primary beneficiary of this trend [2][4]. Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the next resistance level for April gold bulls is at $5,500.00, while the first important support level is at $5250.00. For silver, bulls are targeting $125.00, with $100.00 serving as a psychological and technical support barrier [4]. Future Outlook - As global investors become increasingly aware of the end of the traditional strong dollar cycle, the upward momentum for gold and silver remains intact. Gold is expected to further solidify its strategic position as a tool against currency depreciation and inflation premiums in the coming months [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The global decline in real interest rates is expected to enhance the price elasticity of commodities, positively impacting the metal industry as monetary policy shifts from tightening to easing [5][6]. - The expansion of central bank balance sheets suggests a potential return to quantitative easing (QE), which historically has supported commodity price increases [6][24]. - High geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties are driving up the safe-haven premium for precious metals, particularly gold [7][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Commodity Cycle and Liquidity - The shift in central bank balance sheets is facilitating the release of price elasticity in commodities, with a significant increase in the proportion of global central banks engaging in rate cuts from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025 [5][23]. - The current geopolitical risk index is at a historical high, which is expected to maintain the upward pressure on precious metal prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [7][33]. 2. Precious Metals Pricing Dynamics - Gold prices are anticipated to show a trend of being easier to rise and harder to fall, with supply-demand fundamentals establishing a strong price floor [8][41]. - The global gold supply is in a structurally tight state, with mining output growth slowing and production costs rising above $1500 per ounce [8][42][48]. - The silver market is projected to experience a widening supply-demand gap, driven by industrial demand growth in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [9][10]. - Platinum is expected to maintain a structural shortage, with supply constraints and resilient demand from jewelry and industrial applications [11][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cyclical, growth, and hedging value of the industry, highlighting specific companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining as potential investment targets [9][12].

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is above 8.728, with an opening price of 8.719 and a current price of 8.735, reflecting a 0.24% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 8.764, while the lowest is 8.695, indicating a short-term bearish trend in silver [1] - The resistance level for silver is identified in the range of 8.749-8.752, while the support level is noted at 8.724-8.703 [4] Group 2 - The UK unemployment rate continues to rise, reaching its highest level since 2021, which may influence the Bank of England's decision to lower interest rates despite ongoing inflation pressures [3] - The total wage growth rate for three months in May is reported at 1.0%, with regular wage growth at 1.1%, marking the lowest levels since mid-2023 [3] - Any potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by the Trump administration could severely impact the US dollar, with expectations of a more dovish replacement potentially lowering short-term yields [3]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term investment in gold is being questioned, particularly regarding its ability to maintain its inflation-hedging premium in the current economic climate [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Powell emphasizes the importance of current data in assessing economic conditions, suggesting that market participants should focus on real-time indicators rather than historical trends [1] - There is skepticism about the lagging effects of tariffs on the economy, which could impact inflation and, consequently, the attractiveness of gold as an investment [1] Group 2: Gold's Investment Appeal - The article raises the question of whether gold can regain its status as a reliable hedge against inflation, given the changing economic landscape and investor sentiment [1]