1月29日，贵金属市场正迎来一场前所未有的估值重估。Moneta Markets外汇认为，黄金价格在 Comex 4 月期货合约中突破 $5360.60 这一历史性高点，不仅刷新了名义价格纪录，更创下了史上最大的单日美 元增幅。这种爆发性的行情核心驱动力源于汇市中美元的步履蹒跚，诱发了市场对硬资产的极度渴望。 在宏观政策层面，美联储刚刚结束的 FOMC 会议决定按兵不动，维持 3.5% 至 3.75% 的利率区间。 Moneta Markets外汇表示，尽管联储声称经济增长稳健且失业率趋稳，但市场却敏锐地捕捉到了其对低 就业增长和持续通胀的担忧。这种政策上的"留白"给予了黄金市场极大的想象空间。与此同时，受白银 价格创纪录飙升影响，芝商所（CME）已将 Comex 白银期货保证金比例从 9% 提升至 11%，Moneta Markets外汇认为，这反映了交易所为了应对剧烈的波动性，正在强化抵押品覆盖的防御逻辑。 当前美元指数正处于四年来的低点，且经历了剧烈的单日跌幅，这在很大程度上受到行政决策层对汇率 贬值默许态度的影响。Moneta Markets外汇表示，市场目前正在适应一种"美元走弱与经济增长并存"的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The global decline in real interest rates is expected to enhance the price elasticity of commodities, positively impacting the metal industry as monetary policy shifts from tightening to easing [5][6]. - The expansion of central bank balance sheets suggests a potential return to quantitative easing (QE), which historically has supported commodity price increases [6][24]. - High geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties are driving up the safe-haven premium for precious metals, particularly gold [7][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Commodity Cycle and Liquidity - The shift in central bank balance sheets is facilitating the release of price elasticity in commodities, with a significant increase in the proportion of global central banks engaging in rate cuts from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025 [5][23]. - The current geopolitical risk index is at a historical high, which is expected to maintain the upward pressure on precious metal prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [7][33]. 2. Precious Metals Pricing Dynamics - Gold prices are anticipated to show a trend of being easier to rise and harder to fall, with supply-demand fundamentals establishing a strong price floor [8][41]. - The global gold supply is in a structurally tight state, with mining output growth slowing and production costs rising above $1500 per ounce [8][42][48]. - The silver market is projected to experience a widening supply-demand gap, driven by industrial demand growth in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [9][10]. - Platinum is expected to maintain a structural shortage, with supply constraints and resilient demand from jewelry and industrial applications [11][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cyclical, growth, and hedging value of the industry, highlighting specific companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining as potential investment targets [9][12].

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is above 8.728, with an opening price of 8.719 and a current price of 8.735, reflecting a 0.24% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 8.764, while the lowest is 8.695, indicating a short-term bearish trend in silver [1] - The resistance level for silver is identified in the range of 8.749-8.752, while the support level is noted at 8.724-8.703 [4] Group 2 - The UK unemployment rate continues to rise, reaching its highest level since 2021, which may influence the Bank of England's decision to lower interest rates despite ongoing inflation pressures [3] - The total wage growth rate for three months in May is reported at 1.0%, with regular wage growth at 1.1%, marking the lowest levels since mid-2023 [3] - Any potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by the Trump administration could severely impact the US dollar, with expectations of a more dovish replacement potentially lowering short-term yields [3]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term investment in gold is being questioned, particularly regarding its ability to maintain its inflation-hedging premium in the current economic climate [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Powell emphasizes the importance of current data in assessing economic conditions, suggesting that market participants should focus on real-time indicators rather than historical trends [1] - There is skepticism about the lagging effects of tariffs on the economy, which could impact inflation and, consequently, the attractiveness of gold as an investment [1] Group 2: Gold's Investment Appeal - The article raises the question of whether gold can regain its status as a reliable hedge against inflation, given the changing economic landscape and investor sentiment [1]