【大白小月·编者按】 大白访谈录第12期。 回顾往期，大白采访过手动大神E神Time总，也领教过坤哥的EA江湖。但小月始终觉得，大白专访的拼图里缺了一块最重要的角——宏观。在这 个波诡云谲的2026年，你会发现"形态对了、指标也对了"，盘面还是能把人按在地上摩擦。为此，小月特意邀请了大白社群里现在极少露面的宏 观分析员——Mr.M，老群友或许对他还有印象，他的视角往往跳出了交易本身，善于洞察政治与货币的底层逻辑。当我向他发出邀请时，M先生 回了一句："旧时代的逻辑去解释新时代的波动，这很危险。是时候讲讲真正的'定价锚'了。" 这次专访不教你抓短线，也不保证对，但它至少能帮你把"迷雾"拆开一层。 【背景速读：谁是凯文·沃什？】 (为方便新读者理解，大白整理了本期核心人物的背景档案) 文章来源：123财经导航/大白EA宝库 人物：凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh) 身份：前美联储理事（2006-2011），2026年1月被特朗普提名为下一任美联储主席。 历史标签（为什么市场怕他？）：他曾是美联储最著名的"鹰派"之一。在2008年金融危机后，他公开批评伯南克的QE（量化宽松）政策，认为滥 发货币会引发恶性通胀。他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government plans to significantly increase the departure tax for outbound travelers starting July next year, alongside introducing an entry fee, which has sparked public debate regarding the fairness of these measures [1][2]. Group 1: Departure Tax Increase - The "international traveler departure tax" will rise from the current 1,000 yen (approximately 45 RMB) to 3,000 yen, automatically collected when purchasing international flight tickets [2]. - The government anticipates that revenue from this tax will reach 130 billion yen by the fiscal year 2026, which is 2.7 times the revenue from the previous fiscal year [2]. Group 2: Entry Fee Proposal - A new "entry fee" is planned for 2026, with visa application fees set to increase fivefold; single-entry visa fees will rise to 15,000 yen, while multiple-entry visa fees will increase to 30,000 yen [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Pressure and Debt Concerns - The increase in departure tax and visa fees reflects broader fiscal pressures, as Japan prepares to implement its largest-ever budget next year, with surging social security and defense spending [3]. - Despite rising tax revenues, the government is expected to incur nearly 30 trillion yen in debt next year, with national debt already at twice Japan's GDP [3]. - The ongoing fiscal expansion is causing market panic and increasing downward pressure on the yen's exchange rate [3].

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Anton Kobyakov, a senior economic advisor to Putin, suggests that the U.S. is planning to devalue its $37 trillion national debt through cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, potentially shifting the burden onto global holders of U.S. dollars [3][11]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and Economic Strategy - Kobyakov claims that the U.S. aims to resolve the declining trust in the dollar, possibly at the expense of global interests, by integrating national debt into a "cryptocurrency cloud" system [3][8]. - The concept of "debt devaluation" is illustrated through a hypothetical scenario where the U.S. could print money to repay debts, effectively reducing the real value of the debt through inflation [4][6]. - Historical precedents show that the U.S. has previously used inflation as a strategy to manage high debt-to-GDP ratios, notably after World War II [6][8]. Group 2: Role of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are positioned as a means to distribute the burden of inflation globally, allowing the U.S. to issue debt without immediate domestic repercussions [8][10]. - The reliance on stablecoins faces challenges due to a global trust crisis in the dollar, with many countries accumulating gold and expressing skepticism towards stablecoins [10][11]. - The lack of a reliable auditing mechanism for stablecoins raises concerns about their backing and the potential for the U.S. to alter the rules governing them [10]. Group 3: Alternative Strategies - An alternative strategy proposed by Michael Saylor involves selling U.S. gold reserves to depress gold prices while investing heavily in Bitcoin to establish it as a global reserve asset [11]. - The U.S. government may indirectly support Bitcoin acquisition through private companies, allowing for a more politically palatable approach to managing its debt [11]. - Regardless of whether the U.S. pursues stablecoins or Bitcoin, the ultimate goal remains to shift the responsibility of its $37 trillion debt onto the global community, leading to significant wealth transfer and widening income inequality [11]. Group 4: Impact on Asset Holders - Inflation is expected to increase asset prices for those holding stocks, real estate, and gold, benefiting them financially [12]. - Conversely, ordinary workers and the middle class may see their purchasing power eroded by inflation, leading to a decline in living standards [12]. - Individuals are encouraged to adjust their financial strategies to protect their wealth by investing in inflation-resistant assets such as stocks, real estate, and gold [12].