费城联邦储备银行行长安娜・保尔森（Anna Paulson）于周三重申，若美国经济能如她预期般实现通胀 趋缓与就业市场企稳，美联储或将在今年晚些时候下调短期利率。 保尔森表示："我的基准预期相当乐观——就业市场企稳，经济增速达到2%左右，通胀率将在年底回落 至2%上下。" 她指出："若上述目标全部达成，那么美联储在今年晚些时候对联邦基金利率进行小幅调整，很可能是 适宜之举。" 保尔森称，她对去年的降息举措持支持态度。美联储在去年12月发布的预测显示，鉴于通胀压力有望持 续缓解，预计今年将仅降息一次。目前，白宫正向美联储施加巨大压力，要求加大降息幅度，但多数美 联储官员迄今几乎未释放任何信号，表明短期借贷利率的下一轮下调或将何时到来。 保尔森表示，当前的货币政策立场"略带限制性"。她指出："过去与当前的限制性货币政策形成的合 力，将助力通胀率完全回落至2%的目标水平"，她预计这一目标有望在今年年底前后实现。 她还重申了对就业市场的判断："就业市场显然正在逐步降温，但并未出现崩盘。"她强调，"就业市场 的风险已有所上升，这也是我支持联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）去年累计降息75个基点的重要原 因。" 保尔森进一步 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated a preliminary consensus on pausing higher tariffs, boosting market confidence and leading to record highs in major Wall Street indices, with the S&P 500 surpassing 6800 points and the Nasdaq rising by 1.86% [1] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has dropped to a near one-month low, reflecting a decrease in concerns over the trade war [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut being priced in [3] - Despite the expected rate cut, the direct support for gold prices may be limited due to the market already pricing in this expectation [3] - The uncertainty surrounding future interest rate paths is increasing, particularly due to a lack of key economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [3] U.S. Treasury Yield and Dollar Dynamics - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is reported at 3.997%, showing a slight upward trend, influenced by increased risk appetite due to hopes for a U.S.-China trade agreement [4] - The two-year and five-year Treasury yields have also risen, reflecting a growing preference for risk assets among investors [4] - The dollar index is currently experiencing a volatile rebound [4] Silver Market Trends - The silver market is currently in an upward price trend, with support levels identified around 45.99 [7] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish trend, although market activity is decreasing, suggesting a cautious trading approach [7] - Suggested trading strategy includes placing long positions near the support level of 45.99 with a stop loss at 45.50 and a target range of 50.00 to 50.50 [7]