美联储主席鲍威尔在刚刚召开的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的讲话被市场普遍解读为美联储即将重启降息进 程的信号。不过，在这次讲话中，鲍威尔仍然保持了其一贯的谨慎态度和口吻，这使得市场不得不对未 来一段时间内美联储可能实施的宽松货币政策力度产生怀疑。 目前，美国联邦基金利率水平处于4.25%至4.5%的偏高的区间。笔者认为，与其说鲍威尔本次讲话在暗 示重启降息，不如说是在来自各方面重压下鲍威尔不得不展现了在降息问题上的有限的灵活性和姿态， 也许也只是一种不得已而为之的姿态而已。 在上述这样的背景下，美国经济可能会出现更加明显的下行趋势，经济的不确定性也会显著上升。 JerryZang 由此可见，在明年5月鲍威尔卸任美联储主席之前，美联储即便会采取降息措施，也可能是非常有限 的，缓慢的和非常谨慎的。 美联储的这种不得已而为之的谨慎降息，一方面并不能在很大程度上缓解美国经济承受的高利率的负面 压力，另一方面还会在相当程度上增加美国经济在特朗普总统的关税政策带来的通货膨胀反弹的粘滞 性，使得美国经济雪上加霜。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates a decline in U.S. retail sales growth, with July retail sales month-on-month rate dropping from 0.9% to 0.5%, and core retail sales month-on-month rate decreasing from 0.8% to 0.3% [2] - The decline in retail sales suggests a risk of contraction in consumer spending, which is a crucial driver of the U.S. economy [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August also fell from 61.7 to 58.6, reflecting a decrease in consumer willingness to spend [2] Group 2 - There are widespread concerns that the inflation in the U.S. economy could significantly rebound due to President Trump's tariff policies; however, the contraction in consumer spending makes such a rebound less likely [2] - The article argues that the U.S. economic outlook is more likely to face a downturn rather than a significant inflation rebound, suggesting that even aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not effectively boost the economy in the short term [2]