在特朗普将丽莎·库克从美联储理事会中撤职后，美国国债收益率曲线在亚洲早盘变得陡峭。独立市场 分析师Tina Teng表示，由于特朗普在社交媒体上发帖后对美联储降息的预期增强，短期美国国债的价 格正在上涨。然而，长期债券的价格下跌，部分原因是美国经济的不确定性增加。 ...

海外利率 FOMC 会议追踪系列点评 [Table_Author] 分析师：徐亮 研究助理：黄涵静 执业证号：S0100525070004 执业证号：S0100125070011 邮箱：xliang@mszq.com 邮箱：huanghanjing@mszq.com ➢ 货币政策均维持 6 月会议水平。本次美东时间 7 月 30 日，今年第五次 FOMC 会议落幕。联邦基金利率维持在 4.25-4.50%区间。其余货币政策亦均较六月会 议没有改变，符合市场预期。 ➢ 经济增速表述由稳健（at a solid pace）转为放缓（moderate），消费弱 化，房地产疲软，经济不确定性仍处高位。Q2GDP 年化环比增长 3.0%，前值为 -0.5%，尽管本次数据表观上看 GDP 增速达到 3%，但是主要的拉动项为净进口 的减少（尤其是进口的减少），且受 Q1 低基数干扰，个人消费支出相较 Q1 有所 回暖但仍较弱，住房市场依旧维持疲软。一季度由于"抢进口"导致 GDP 大幅 受进口减项所拖累，而二季度随着 0402 关税谈判拉锯战的演绎与 10%加征关税 的实施，进口商观望情绪浓厚，进口显著回落。展望三季度，目 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has postponed the tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1 and has issued letters to fourteen countries regarding increased tariffs, particularly targeting Japan and South Korea [1][4] - The U.S. is applying extreme pressure on Japan and South Korea to make concessions, indicating a significant shift in policy compared to previous administrations [3][4] - The tariffs imposed on Japan and South Korea are punitive rather than basic, with a 25% tariff announced [4][6] Group 2 - The U.S. foreign policy has shifted focus from supporting Ukraine to addressing the Middle East situation, particularly after Israel's attack on Iran [9][12] - Following a call with Putin, the U.S. expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating a potential shift back to supporting Ukraine [10][12] - The U.S. has historically provided about 50% of Ukraine's weaponry during the conflict, highlighting its critical role in Ukraine's defense [19] Group 3 - The U.S. is considering further sanctions against Russia and has expressed dissatisfaction with Putin, indicating a potential increase in pressure on Russia [17][21] - The unpredictability of U.S. policy under the current administration has led to a decrease in credibility and reliability among both allies and adversaries [23][25] - The economic implications of the tariff policies may lead to a recession in the U.S., with the administration's actions contributing to economic uncertainty [29][41] Group 4 - The current administration has threatened the Federal Reserve's chairman regarding interest rate policies, indicating a push for lower rates despite economic instability [31][39] - The administration's insistence that tariffs do not impact inflation contradicts economic realities, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making [33][37] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is seen as a major obstacle to the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [39][41]

巴菲特先生曾经说过："只有在潮水退去之后，我们才能够知道谁在裸泳"。如果投资者不像成为别人发 现的那个裸泳者，那么就必须在潮水开始退去之间穿上泳衣。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 据媒体报道，巴菲特执掌的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司已经连续10个季度净卖出股票。截止2025年第一季度 末，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司所持有的现金类资产已经高达3470亿美元。 由此可见，巴菲特先生到目前为止尚未出手抄底美国股市，这是老爷子在告诉市场，他认为美国股市尚 未触底，市场还没有出现值得大手笔投资的标的。 在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司2025年会上，巴菲特先生说："我们并非始终满仓投资，因此赚了很多钱"。正如 巴菲特先生的那句名言："当别人贪婪时我恐惧，当别人恐惧时我贪婪"。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司连续10个 季度净卖出股票的事实说明，巴菲特先生如今非常恐惧市场。 那么是什么使得"股神"如此恐惧市场，竟然手握着创纪录的巨额现金类资产呢？笔者认为，特朗普总统 就职以来推出的一系列经济政策正在使得美国经济充满了不确定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on the industry, indicating a cautious outlook on future performance [53]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% while reducing the monthly limit for Treasury redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, maintaining a $35 billion reduction for MBS [3][19]. - Economic forecasts have been adjusted, with the GDP growth rate for 2025 revised down to 1.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while inflation predictions for PCE and core PCE have been raised to 2.7% and 2.8% respectively [23][30]. - The market's risk appetite has shown signs of recovery following the Fed's announcement, with significant increases in major stock indices and a decline in 10-year Treasury yields [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Fed's statement reflects a stable labor market and acknowledges slight inflation increases, with internal dissent indicating differing views on economic conditions [19][20]. - The Fed's flexibility in lowering interest rates is expected to increase, with potential cuts of 2-3 times in 2025, contingent on economic performance [6][33]. 2. Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025-2027 and raised its inflation expectations, suggesting that the impact of Trump's policies on inflation may be temporary [23][30]. - The median federal funds rate forecast for 2025 remains at 3.4%, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut [23][30]. 3. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.92% and 1.41% respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.3% [42]. - The dollar index has seen a slight decline, and gold prices have increased, indicating a shift in market sentiment [42].