当前美国经济面临着巨大的不确定性，一系列来自内部和外部的矛盾加剧了这种不确定性。这使得美联储的小步慢行的 降息进程对于经济的下行压力犹如杯水车薪。如果再考虑到可能出现的"黑天鹅事件"，美国经济的前景并非光明一片， 而是堪忧。 JerryZang 与此同时，美国9月PPI年率从前值2.6%升至2.7%，9月PPI月率则从前值-0.1%升至0.3%。PPI数据往往对于CPI数据具有 前导性。这意味着，美国经济的通货膨胀有可能继续小幅反弹。 面对上述经济数据，美联储的委员们对于未来的货币政策走向的观点存在着很大的分歧。这给美联储未来的货币政策带 来很大的不确定性。 不过，最新的消息表明，美联储更可能在12月议息会议上继续降息25个基点。这对于美国实体经济来说具有一定的支撑 作用，同时也利好美国资本市场。 11月25日公布的数据显示，美国9月零售销售月率从前值0.6%降至0.2%。这反映出作为美国经济重要支柱的消费面临下 行的局面。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的准确信息， 请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent failures of regional banks in the U.S., specifically Zions Bank and West Alliance Bank, have raised concerns about the stability of the banking sector, particularly regarding loan practices and potential fraud [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Bank Failures and Market Reaction - Zions Bank and West Alliance Bank faced significant issues due to alleged fraud by borrowers, leading to a sharp decline in the KBW Regional Banking Index by over 4%, marking its lowest level since August [1][2] - The VIX index, often referred to as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged over 22% on October 16, indicating heightened market anxiety [1] Specific Cases of Fraud - Zions Bank's legal troubles stem from two real estate mortgage loans totaling $60 million issued to related special purpose investment entities, where fund managers allegedly manipulated loan structures and breached trust [2][3] - The bank has reported a $60 million loss provision due to "obvious false statements and default behaviors" related to these loans [3] Financial Stability of Zions Bank - Despite recent issues, Zions Bank's overall business remains stable, with total assets around $87 billion and a loan and lease portfolio of approximately $60 billion [3] - The bank's securities investment stands at $19 billion, with expectations that losses may decrease if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [3] Broader Banking Sector Concerns - The rising operational costs in the banking sector are a significant risk signal, with the S&P Regional Bank Index down 2.16% year-to-date, contrasting with a 13.3% increase in the S&P 500 [4] - Regional banks, which are crucial for community financing, face risks due to concentrated business in real estate loans, making them vulnerable to market downturns [4][6] Market Capitalization and Size of Regional Banks - The total market capitalization of U.S. regional banks is approximately $971.19 billion, with a significant number of institutions varying greatly in size [5][6] - Zions Bank, with a market value of $7.9 billion, exemplifies the challenges faced by smaller banks in the current economic climate [6] Economic and Regulatory Environment - The banking sector is under pressure from high floating losses in securities investments, estimated at nearly $400 billion, which could lead to capital management challenges if interest rates do not decrease [7] - Inflationary pressures and rising debt burdens on households and businesses may lead to increased loan defaults, posing further risks to banks [7][8] Economic Outlook - The current economic situation in the U.S. is uncertain, with potential impacts from government shutdowns and trade policies complicating the economic landscape [8] - Upcoming economic data releases, such as the Consumer Price Index, will be critical in assessing inflationary trends and their effects on the banking sector [8]

经济观察网据央视新闻消息，在美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第13天之际，美国国会众议院共和党籍议长约 翰逊发出警告说，这可能成为美国历史上持续时间最长的政府"停摆"。受这场危机影响，美国联邦政府 部分功能陷于停滞，旅行、教育、文化、科技乃至国防等领域均受波及。美媒评论，"停摆"造成的冲击 给"本已不稳定的美国经济"增加了更多不确定性。美联社援引约翰逊的话报道，联邦政府"正快速走向 美国历史上时间最长的'停摆'"，共和党方面愿与民主党就医保议题进行磋商，条件是对方首先妥协， 让政府恢复运转。美国联邦政府上次大规模"停摆"发生在2018年底至2019年初特朗普首个总统任期内， 历时35天，为美国迄今持续时间最长的一轮。当时，国会两党就建造美墨边境"隔离墙"等问题争执不 下。 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction of the year, amidst concerns over slowing job growth and persistent inflation [1][3][4] - The decision to lower rates is seen as a response to multiple economic uncertainties, including the impact of tariffs on prices [3][4] - Observers note that while the rate cut aligns with expectations, it may not alleviate the dissatisfaction expressed by the Trump administration towards the Fed [3][6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below market expectations [4] - The inflation rate remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year in August, the largest increase since January [4] - The Fed's median forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2025 is 1.6%, with an unemployment rate of 4.5% and an inflation rate of 3% [5] Future Projections - The Fed's dot plot indicates a median forecast of a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts over the remaining two policy meetings of the year, with only one anticipated cut in 2026 [3][7] - The probability of another 25 basis point cut in the October meeting has risen to 87.7%, up from 74.3% the previous day [7] - Analysts suggest that while rate cuts may stimulate demand, ongoing issues such as tariffs and immigration policies could continue to negatively impact consumer and business confidence [7]

美国联邦储备委员会17日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。分析人士表示，美联储此次降息能否提振美国经济有待观 察。 特朗普政府或持续施压美联储 由于担忧特朗普政府关税政策推动通胀回升，美联储今年以来一直"按兵不动"，将利率维持在较高水平。此次虽然降息，但幅度远未达到特朗普的要求。 休·约翰逊经济咨询公司董事长兼首席经济学家休·约翰逊认为，特朗普政府可能继续对美联储施压，要求美联储大幅降低短期利率。 分析人士认为，由于关税、移民等政策持续对企业和消费者信心带来负面影响，美国经济或难以逆转整体放缓的趋势。此外，降息和关税可能形成叠加效 应，使美联储控制通胀的目标更难实现。 当前，美国就业增长放缓，通胀居高不下，关税对物价的影响仍在进一步显现，美国经济面临多重不确定性。此次降息反映了美联储对就业情况的担忧甚于 通胀风险。美联储主席鲍威尔17日表示，美国就业市场疲软是他和其他政策制定者当前的首要考虑因素。分析人士表示，对于政策制定者来说，在不断上升 的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场之间取得平衡是一个困境。 ...

新华社北京9月18日电 经济热点问答｜美联储降息释放哪些信号 新华社记者陈斯达 美国联邦储备委员会17日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这 是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。此次降息决定的背后有哪些政策考 量？能否为美联储缓解来自特朗普政府的压力？美联储货币政策未来走向何方？ 此次降息有何考量 美联储主席鲍威尔17日在新闻发布会上表示，美国就业市场疲软是他和其他政策制定者当前的首要 考虑因素。 观察人士认为，此次降息虽符合外界预期，但从特朗普政府过去几个月的表态来看，显然难以缓解 白宫对美联储的不满。 由于特朗普政府此前频繁施压美联储降息，《华尔街日报》日前发表评论文章认为，本次美联储议 息会议处于一个"不同寻常的政治时刻"，是近年来"最奇特"的会议之一，而会议结果显示，鲍威尔成功 促成了美联储内部"团结"。 由于担忧特朗普政府关税政策推动通胀回升，美联储今年以来一直"按兵不动"，将利率维持在较高 水平。此次虽然降息，但幅度远未达到特朗普的要求。特朗普7月曾表示，美联储设定的利率水平至少 偏高300个基点。他认为，美联储将利率长期维持在" ...

Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve "Beige Book" indicates that both employment and consumer spending in the U.S. are under pressure due to tariffs, leading to a slowdown in hiring and investment by businesses [1][2] - The report highlights that all Federal Reserve districts have experienced price increases related to tariffs, raising production costs for companies and living expenses for consumers [1][2] - Many businesses express concerns about the economic outlook, with worries about trade policy changes, high interest rates, and stricter immigration policies affecting their confidence [1] Group 2 - Consumers are facing a dual challenge of rising prices and reduced employment, with wage growth not keeping pace with inflation, particularly as companies adjust labor and pricing strategies in response to tariffs [2] - The "Beige Book" reveals increasing economic uncertainty, with the term "uncertainty" mentioned 80 times, reflecting a more cautious decision-making environment for both businesses and consumers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises questions about the President's authority to remove a Fed official and the potential impact on the Fed's independence [1][3]. Group 1: Dismissal and Legal Implications - Trump dismissed Cook citing alleged mortgage fraud, but Cook has filed a lawsuit claiming the dismissal is unlawful [1]. - The allegations against Cook involve declaring two properties as her "primary residence" to obtain better mortgage rates, which has been referred to the Justice Department for investigation [1]. - Legal experts suggest that the Trump administration must prove Cook's alleged misconduct in court, which could lead to a prolonged legal battle potentially reaching the Supreme Court [1][3]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - The rationale for Cook's dismissal does not directly relate to her ability to perform her duties as a Fed Governor, indicating a potential misuse of presidential power [2][3]. - Trump's actions could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Fed, undermining its independence and stability, which is crucial for U.S. monetary policy [3]. - If Trump successfully removes Cook, it could allow him to nominate two governors, further increasing presidential influence over the Fed [3]. Group 3: Economic Challenges - The potential erosion of the Fed's independence may exacerbate existing challenges in balancing employment and price stability, leading to greater economic uncertainty in the U.S. [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened in the Asian morning session following Trump's removal of Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board [1] - Independent market analyst Tina Teng noted that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut increased after Trump's social media post, leading to a rise in short-term U.S. Treasury prices [1] - Long-term bond prices fell, attributed to increased uncertainty in the U.S. economy [1]

本周四（8月21日），杰克逊霍尔央行年会将要召开。市场普遍关注美联储主席鲍威尔在该年会上发表 的讲话，特别是该讲话关于美联储未来货币政策走向的信息。 美国经济现在面临的最大风险就是不确定性。正如巴菲特先生说过的："只有在潮水退去之后，我们才 能够知道谁在裸泳"。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 JerryZang 有分析师认为，特朗普总统与鲍威尔可能在幕后达成了一些共识，因此9月重启降息是大概率事件。不 过，笔者认为，即便鲍威尔在9月议息会议上赞成降息，他也只是在权衡各种利弊后的权宜之计，未来 鲍威尔不会在降息问题上采取积极的行动。 距离鲍威尔明年5月离职还有9个月时间，而特朗普总统在此期间又很难使鲍威尔提前离任，这无疑会造 成美国经济在高利率环境下承受更长时间的负面压力，增加美国经济下行的风险，加大美国经济面临的 不确定性。 有华尔街机构认为，鲍威尔会在该年会上给市场普遍热议的美联储9月议息会议上重启降息泼冷水，甚 至有分析师开始怀疑美联储是否会在9月降息。 笔者认为，鲍威尔一段时间以来 ...