据环球时报援引路透社11月20日报道，一份草案文件显示，日本首相高市早苗的政府正在制定一项总额 为21.3万亿日元（约合1354亿美元）的经济刺激计划，相关方案的拟定已进入最后阶段。报道称，这将 是自新冠疫情暴发以来，日本政府规模最大的经济刺激措施。 报道称，该计划体现了高市早苗的扩张性财政和货币政策倾向，但与此同时，市场也越来越担心该计划 所需的庞大借贷规模。该计划将包括17.7万亿日元的财政支出以及2.7万亿日元的减税措施。资金来源预 计包括总体税收增加以及额外发行政府债券，但新增债券发行的规模尚未最终确定。 消息人士透露，此次日本国债增发规模预计将超过去年发行的6.69万亿日元。文件显示，若将政府支出 带动的民间投资计入其中，该刺激计划的总规模将达42.8万亿日元。 按照计划，高市早苗内阁拟于11月21日批准这一草案，并最早于11月28日批准相关补充预算案，目标是 在年底前获得国会批准。高市早苗上月就任首相以来宣布将扩大政府支出，以应对日本物价上涨给经济 带来的压力，并宣布将在人工智能、半导体和造船等行业加大投入。 路透社称，市场普遍预期高市早苗政府将推行巨额政府支出计划，并辅以低利率政策，这引发了市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various financial and commodity futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping indices, and multiple metal and energy - chemical commodities. It presents the current market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding operation suggestions for each market. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Wednesday, A - share major indices fluctuated narrowly, with the high - dividend value sector remaining strong. The insurance, energy equipment, and trade sectors rose, while the export chain and power - related industries declined. Among the four major stock index futures contracts, most followed the index decline, and the basis discounts of the main contracts expanded [2][3]. - News: The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference was launched on November 12. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will deepen comprehensive investment and financing reforms. Japan's Prime Minister's economic stimulus plan is expected to be finalized later this month [3][4]. - Fund flow: On November 12, A - share trading volume decreased by about 50 billion yuan, with a total turnover of 1.95 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 130 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. In case of a deep decline, a bull spread of put options can be arranged [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5][6]. - Fund flow: The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 12, with a net investment of 130 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds improved, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions decreased [6]. - Operation suggestion: As the capital pressure eases marginally, the bond market is in a tug - of war between multiple and short factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Fed officials released dovish signals, and the low inventory continued to drive up the prices of gold and silver. International gold and silver prices rose, with international silver showing a stronger increase [8][10][11]. - Future outlook: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increases after the end of the government "shutdown". Geopolitical and other risks drive more central banks to increase gold holdings, and precious metals are expected to continue to strengthen [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot quotation: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe basic ports varied among different shipping companies. As of November 10, the SCFIS European line index rose by 24.5% month - on - month [12]. - Fundamental situation: As of November 10, the global container total capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [12]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The futures market is expected to fluctuate between 1700 - 1800 points, and it is recommended to conduct band operations. The short - term operation range is 1650 - 1850 [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 12, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86,795 yuan/ton, with the price in Guangdong slightly lower. The downstream orders improved after the price correction [13]. - Macro: The previous high balance of the US Treasury TGA account tightened market liquidity, but it is expected to improve after the end of the government shutdown [14]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November. Attention should be paid to the price trend of sulfuric acid [14]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod processing increased. The downstream has a certain tolerance for price increases, and the demand has strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: LME and domestic social inventories decreased, while COMEX inventory increased [15]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The copper price is expected to fluctuate. The main contract should focus on the support at 86,500 [16]. Alumina - Spot: On November 12, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, with the overall supply pattern becoming looser and the price showing a downward trend [16]. - Supply: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year. It is expected that the supply will remain in surplus in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [17]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the total registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [17]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The alumina price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract operating in the range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On November 12, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, but the actual transaction volume was small at high prices [19]. - Supply: In October, the production of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum rose. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The downstream is in the traditional peak season, but the operating rates of processing products declined [20]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased [20]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term, testing the pressure level of 22,000. It is recommended to short on rallies [21]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On November 12, the spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [21]. - Supply: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it is expected that the operating rate will decline slightly in November due to the shortage of scrap aluminum [22]. - Demand: In October, the demand showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and high prices suppressed the purchasing willingness [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the total registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [22]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The ADC12 price is expected to be strong and fluctuate, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD01 and short on AL01 can be considered when the spread is above 550 [24]. Zinc - Spot: On November 12, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc ore processing fee is expected to continue to decline, and the production of refined zinc may decline in November. The export space is open, and the supply pressure is limited [25]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries declined, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations. The export of refined zinc may boost the domestic price [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract operating in the range of 22,300 - 23,000 [27]. Tin - Spot: On November 12, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, but the actual transaction volume was limited, and the downstream was mainly in a wait - and - see state [27]. - Supply: In September, the import of tin ore and tin ingots showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved, but the overall supply remained tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: In October, the operating rate of solder decreased. The LME inventory increased, the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory increased [29]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The tin price is expected to be strong and fluctuate. It is recommended to hold long positions [30]. Nickel - Spot: As of November 12, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [30]. - Supply: In October, the production of refined nickel decreased, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, the demand for stainless steel is general, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support but limited long - term sustainability [31]. - Inventory: Both domestic and overseas inventories increased, with the LME inventory remaining at a high level [31]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The nickel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract operating in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 12, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, and the basis decreased [33]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron is under pressure, and the price of ferrochrome is weak [34]. - Supply: In October, the production of stainless steel increased, and it is expected to decrease in November. The production of 300 - series stainless steel remains at a high level [34]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [35]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The stainless steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 12, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, but the trading volume was light [37]. - Supply: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and last week's production data also increased slightly, mainly driven by lithium - spodumene and mica production [38]. - Demand: The demand is generally optimistic, with the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in demand after November [38]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with the upstream and downstream inventories both decreasing [39]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [40]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, and the price of silicon wafers continued to decline [41]. - Supply: In November, the production of polysilicon is expected to decline [41]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and each link still has an inventory build - up expectation [42]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased [42]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [43]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: On November 12, the prices of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged [44]. - Supply: In October, the production of industrial silicon increased, and it is expected to decline in November [45]. - Demand: The demand is expected to decline slightly, mainly due to the decrease in polysilicon production [45]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts and social inventory decreased, while the factory inventory increased [45]. - Logic and operation suggestion: The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [46]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price remained stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements has weak support, while the cost of carbon elements has support. The profit of steel products has declined recently [46]. - Supply: From January to September, the production of iron elements increased. In October - November, the production of molten iron decreased, and the production of five major steel products also decreased [47]. - Demand: The domestic demand is still weak, and the export is at a high level. The apparent demand has declined [48]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, with the inventory of hot - rolled coils increasing [48]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to continue to hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage. For single - side operations, it is recommended to wait and see [48]. Iron Ore - Spot and futures: As of November 12, the spot price of mainstream iron ore powder increased, and the futures price also rose [49][50]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron decreased, the blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the steel mill profit rate decreased [50]. - Supply: The global shipment volume and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased, the daily unloading volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [51]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to partially take profit on the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [51]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: As of November 12, the coking coal futures fluctuated at a low level, the price of Shanxi coking coal was strong, and the price of Mongolian coal declined [52]. - Supply: The production capacity utilization rate of some sample coal mines increased, and the production of raw coal and clean coal increased [53]. - Demand: The production of coke and molten iron decreased, and the steel mill profit rate decreased [54]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased moderately, with coal mines and steel mills reducing inventory and other links increasing inventory [55]. - Viewpoint: The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [56]. Coke - Futures and spot: As of November 12, the coke futures fluctuated at a low level. The third - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the fourth - round increase was initiated [57][60]. - Profit: The average profit of independent coking plants was negative [59]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased [59]. - Demand: The production of molten iron decreased, and the steel mill profit was low, suppressing the price increase of coke [59]. - Inventory: The inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills decreased slightly [59]. - Viewpoint: The coke price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [60].

智通财经APP获悉，一份日本首相高市早苗的经济刺激计划草案显示，日本政府承诺将"毫不犹豫地"增 加支出，以支持处于摆脱停滞边缘的经济。 尽管草案未提及具体支出规模，但呼吁在危机管理和增长领域进行"大胆且具有战略性的"投资，这表明 该一揽子计划很可能包含巨额支出。 草案显示，政府将日本经济描述为正处于从"容易陷入通缩和削减成本的状态"转型的时期，并誓言"对 必要政策大胆且毫不犹豫地投入"。 该计划将包括降低公用事业费和汽油费的补贴、受美国加征关税影响企业的援助，以及预计增加的国防 开支。 根据草案，政府还将促进对人工智能、半导体和造船等关键增长领域的投资。 高市早苗政府预计将在本月晚些时候最终确定该计划，并编制本财年的补充预算，为部分支出提供资 金。 大和证券分析师在一份研究报告中表示："该计划规模将相当庞大，因为日本经济仍需要财政支持，且 政府承诺投资的领域众多。"他们称："如果补充预算支出的规模达到20万亿日元(合1330亿美元)，我们 也不会感到意外。" ...