Group 1 - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Sanna Takashi, is preparing a significant economic stimulus plan totaling 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD), marking the largest such measure since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The plan includes 17.7 trillion yen in fiscal spending and 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts, with funding expected from increased overall tax revenue and additional government bond issuance [1][2] - The total scale of the stimulus plan, including private investment driven by government spending, could reach 42.8 trillion yen [1] Group 2 - Market reactions indicate a lack of confidence in Japan's sovereign debt sustainability, with 10-year Japanese government bond yields rising to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis [2][3] - Japan's debt burden is approximately 250% of its GDP, with interest payments accounting for about 23% of annual tax revenue [2] - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, falling below 155 yen to the dollar for the first time since February, while the Nikkei 225 index experienced its largest single-day drop since April [3] Group 3 - The economic data suggests Japan is facing downward pressure, with a reported 0.4% decrease in real GDP for Q3 2025, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [3] - The government is under pressure to implement a large spending plan due to weak economic indicators, while simultaneously facing challenges from potential yen depreciation and rising import costs [4] - There are concerns about the possibility of the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervening in the foreign exchange market to support the yen amid extreme volatility [4][5]

随着日本政府公布1100亿美元规模的财政刺激计划，"高市交易"升级，日本长期债券遭抛售，10年期日 债收益率飙升至2008年金融危机以来最高水平，30年期日债收益率更创盘中历史新高。 这可能再次引发约20万亿美元的日元套利交易反转，威胁全球风险资产。 日本长债收益率升至数十年高位 基准10年期日本国债收益率19日一度攀升0.04个百分点至1.78%，为2008年6月全球金融危机以来的最高 水平。20年期日本国债收益率升至2.795%，为1999年以来最高。30年期日本国债收益率盘中甚至升至 3.35%的历史新高。 分析师表示，推动日本国债收益率飙升的根本原因在于高市政府的财政刺激政策。18日，一个由与高市 关系密切的议员组成的日本执政党委员会小组提议编制一项超过25万亿日元（约合1610亿美元）的补充 预算，以资助高市计划推出的刺激方案。该提案称，政府"应当毫不犹豫地发行更多债券"，以资助在经 济增长领域和危机管理方面的投资。该提议的金额将远远超过去年额外预算的13.9万亿日元。一些日本 官员随后的评论表明，这一规模可能会进一步扩大到17万亿日元。 金融市场独立分析师佩雷拉（Shanaka Anslem Pe ...