12月4日，尽管金价尚未重新触及10月超过4360美元/盎司的历史高位，但多家市场机构的估值模型显 示，当前水平已接近其合理区间。在全球经济不确定性持续升温的背景下，黄金在多轮震荡后的突破中 不断抬升支撑位，这一走势与避险与配置需求增强的市场格局高度吻合。OEXN认为，这种结构性上移 的支撑带反映了资金对长期风险的持续定价。 投资者普遍期待的"大幅回调"迟迟未出现，主要因为经济动能转弱的迹象正在累积，而这正为贵金属提 供稳固底盘。市场押注主要央行将在下周至2026年期间启动连续降息周期，使名义与实际收益率同步下 行，并削弱美元的强势。10月金价在冲上4360美元后出现获利抛压，但回调有限，4000美元上方支撑始 终稳定。短暂整理后，黄金稳固于约4200美元区间。多项模型显示，在全球债务增长与利率下行的组合 下，黄金的表现完全符合逻辑。OEXN认为，这一支撑区间的韧性，反映了长期需求的结构化强化。 在关注上涨潜力的同时，黄金的下行空间亦值得审视。理论上金价可能下探3800美元，但模型显示该区 域同样具备强支撑，跌破4000美元需出现显著外部冲击。在更极端的空头场景中，政策利率需重新升至 5%，而这种情况往往伴随 ...

Core Insights - COMEX gold futures prices experienced fluctuations, breaking through $4239.8 before closing at $4224.90, up 1.48% [1] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" report indicated little overall change in economic activity since the last report, with a slight decline in consumer spending, particularly in retail [1] - Geopolitical risks and trade tensions are driving demand for safe-haven assets, with short-term overbought conditions not indicating a trend reversal [1] Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's report showed that overall economic activity has remained stable, with consumer spending, especially in retail, experiencing a slight decline [1] - Employment levels have remained stable, but demand for labor across various regions and industries is generally weak [1] Market Performance - COMEX gold futures reached a record high of $4220 per ounce during European trading before retreating to around $4200 [1] - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), rose by 2.32%, while gold stock ETFs (159562) increased by 1.63% [1] Investment Sentiment - Analysts from CITIC Futures noted that the combination of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, escalating trade tensions, and geopolitical risks is boosting demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Despite being in an overbought territory, the increase in volatility reflects an expansion of sentiment rather than a reversal of trends, with mid-term bullish logic remaining solid [1]