Core Viewpoint - Gold is viewed as a stable asset and a safe haven, especially during periods of economic uncertainty, with its market influenced by global economic changes, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Global Economic Uncertainty - Increasing global economic uncertainty has led to a rise in demand for gold as a safe haven, particularly during signs of financial crises or economic recessions [3]. - Geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and trade tensions between the US and Europe, significantly affect gold price fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of the Gold Market - Technical analysis reveals patterns in gold price movements, identifying key support and resistance levels that influence market behavior [4]. - Indicators such as trend lines and moving averages are essential tools for investors to assess overall market trends and short-term trading opportunities [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Policies and Gold Market - Central bank monetary policies, especially decisions by major banks like the Federal Reserve, directly impact the attractiveness of gold as an investment [7]. - Changes in central bank gold reserves reflect confidence in gold, with purchases by central banks potentially driving short-term price increases [7]. Group 4: Investment Decision-Making in Gold Market - Investors should adjust their strategies based on market trends, considering the implications of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on gold prices [8]. - The volatility of gold prices necessitates that investors tailor their investment plans according to their risk tolerance [8]. Group 5: Investment Methods in Gold - Various investment options in gold include physical gold, gold ETFs, and gold futures, each with distinct risk and return characteristics [10]. - Investors are encouraged to monitor multiple influencing factors and adapt their strategies accordingly to capitalize on investment opportunities in the gold market [10].

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported that global service trade growth is expected to slow to 5% in the first quarter of 2025, which is about half of the growth rates seen in 2024 and 2023 [1] - Service trade exports in Europe and North America grew only by 3% year-on-year, which is lower than the data from the first quarter of 2024 [1] - In contrast, Asia experienced a robust growth rate of 9% [1] - Financial services exports increased by 3% year-on-year, reflecting a decrease in investment activity due to heightened global economic uncertainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Bullock expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5% despite ongoing global economic uncertainties and unpredictability [1] Economic Indicators - Monthly data suggests that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not meet expectations [1] - A significant drop in CPI alongside only a slight increase in unemployment rate is surprising [1] Monetary Policy - The committee is seeking a cautious and gradual path for monetary easing [1] - The RBA's rate hikes have been smaller compared to other central banks, indicating that extensive rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains tight, with expectations of some easing by the end of the year [1] - Leading indicators do not suggest a significant rise in the unemployment rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have shown strong upward momentum since early April, supported by multiple favorable factors, including trade uncertainties and monetary policy expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The upcoming deadline of August 1 for new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on global trade partners has created market uncertainty, providing strong support for silver [2]. - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of U.S.-EU trade negotiations and potential retaliatory measures from the EU, which enhances silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - The market anticipates a 59% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, further boosting silver prices [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - A weak U.S. dollar has reduced the purchasing cost of silver, attracting buyers [3]. - Ongoing concerns about global economic uncertainty, exacerbated by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have heightened demand for silver as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Recent global manufacturing data indicates a gradual recovery in industrial activity, positively impacting silver's industrial demand, particularly in Asia's tech manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver's price action has shown a bullish pattern, with significant support levels identified at $38.00 and $37.50, while resistance is noted at $39.00 and $39.13 [4][5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached around 70, indicating strong buying momentum, although it is in the overbought territory [4]. - A breakout above the resistance zone of $38.80-$39.00 could lead to further upward movement towards the July 14 high of $39.13 [4].

Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Impact - Trump revealed that the U.S. generated $25 billion in revenue from tariffs in June, primarily from the automotive, steel, aluminum, and some wood sectors [1] - The second round of tariffs initiated by Trump is expected to bring in more revenue after July 7 [1] - Trump has imposed tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on 24 countries and the EU, which is significantly higher than the previously proposed "reciprocal tariff" policy [3] Group 2: International Reactions and Negotiations - Brazil has initiated a three-step response to the 50% tariff, including negotiation and potential countermeasures, while the EU is prepared to impose additional tariffs on $72 billion worth of U.S. goods if no agreement is reached [3] - Japan and Mexico are also looking to negotiate further with the U.S. regarding tariffs [3] - The U.S. has reached a tariff agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on U.S. exports while Indonesia maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods [5] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The UN warns that Trump's tariff policy has caused significant disruptions in global supply chains, leading to increased costs and supply interruptions, with a projected global economic growth rate drop from 2.8% to 2.3% [9] - Financial CEOs express concerns that the tariff policy may lead to rising inflation and further economic deterioration, despite recent profits exceeding expectations for major banks [11] - U.S. companies, particularly in the chemical, plastic, and alcohol sectors, face challenges from foreign retaliatory measures, with U.S. whiskey exports to the EU dropping by 20% from 2018 to 2021 due to tariffs [12] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Inflation - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates until there is more clarity on inflation trends, with several officials indicating no urgency to lower rates [18] - The tariffs are expected to exert upward pressure on consumer prices, complicating the Fed's monetary policy decisions [18] - The overall economic uncertainty stemming from the tariff policies is influencing the Fed's approach to interest rates, with a cautious stance being adopted [18]

Group 1 - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting highlighted that the global economy is facing increasing uncertainty and complex challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite global economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties, Brent crude oil prices have shown strong resilience, averaging $70.75 per barrel since January [1] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - A key factor supporting oil prices is that nearly all oil surpluses in the second quarter have been absorbed by China's strategic petroleum reserves, tightening global supply and preventing price declines [1] - Strong consumer demand continues to support oil prices, with robust demand for road travel and air travel [1] Group 2: Market Influences - U.S. tariff policies have prompted importers to procure crude oil in advance to avoid potential future restrictions, providing additional support for oil prices [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3302 per ounce, following a decline of over 1% on Tuesday, where it hit a low of $3287.06 per ounce, marking a one-week low [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors including optimistic trade negotiations, a strengthening dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the complexities of Trump's tariff policies [1][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could influence future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Recent optimistic signals from U.S. trade negotiations with major partners have reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - President Trump warned of tariffs on 14 countries but postponed the effective date to August 1, allowing for further negotiations, which has led to market expectations for more lenient trade policies [3] - Japan and South Korea are actively seeking to mitigate the impact of tariffs through negotiations, with Japan focusing on concessions in the automotive sector while protecting agricultural interests [3] Group 3 - The global financial market's reaction to Trump's tariff policies has been cautious, with mixed performances in major indices, indicating investor hesitation amid trade negotiations [4] - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected to continue due to optimistic trade sentiments, a strong dollar, and rising Treasury yields, while long-term uncertainties and inflation pressures may support gold [4] - Investors are advised to monitor developments in trade negotiations, monetary policy, and macroeconomic data to identify potential opportunities in gold prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating potential future rate cuts depending on mid-term inflation pressures and global economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The RBNZ's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects a cautious approach towards the current economic outlook, despite some members advocating for a reduction to 3% to support economic activity [1]. - The current inflation rate in New Zealand stands at 2.5%, which is above the RBNZ's target range of 1%-3% [1]. - The RBNZ anticipates that the annual consumer price inflation rate may rise to the upper limit of the target range by mid-2025 but is expected to gradually decline to around 2% by early 2026 [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - The RBNZ acknowledges that global policy uncertainties, rising trade protectionism, and tariff issues are hindering economic growth and may delay New Zealand's economic recovery [1]. - Analysts suggest that the market has already priced in the RBNZ's decision, with future focus shifting to the bank's assessments of inflation, tariffs, and global economic data [2]. - The RBNZ's future monetary policy will adopt a "data-dependent" approach, with upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical changes being crucial for decision-making [2].

Group 1 - The global economic uncertainty remains high, with unclear implications from U.S. tariffs and responses from other countries, although financial markets have rebounded due to the avoidance of extreme scenarios [3] - Domestic private demand is gradually recovering, with actual household income increasing and some financial pressure indicators easing, despite some industries reporting weak demand [3] - Labor market indicators show continued tightness, with low underemployment rates and widespread labor shortages reported by businesses [3] Group 2 - The silver market experienced fluctuations, opening at $37.15, reaching a high of $37.217, and closing at $36.761, forming a long lower shadow hammer pattern [4] - The silver price is currently trading around $36.77, with potential targets for downward movement at $36.6 and $36.4 [4] - The market sentiment indicates a cautious approach, with recommendations for short positions above $37 and preparation for potential exits [4]