贝森特与沃什在批评长期量化宽松政策上立场一致，贝森特认为QE应仅在真正的紧急情况下，经政府 协调后实施。Evercore ISI的Krishna Guha指出，市场或将财政部介入美联储决策的模式，解读为贝森特 对量化紧缩计划拥有"软否决权"。 市场普遍预期，若协议落地，美联储资产持仓可能从中长期证券转向12个月以内的短期国库券。德意志 银行策略师预测，未来五到七年内美联储或将成为国库券的积极买家，其国库券持仓占比有望从当前不 足5%提升至55%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 贝森特表示："至于美联储打算如何调整资产负债表，这将由他们自主决定。如果他们实行'充足准备 金'制度政策，我认为他们不会迅速采取行动，因为这确实需要更大规模的资产负债表。所以，我认为 他们可能会静观其变，至少花一年的时间来决定该怎么做。" 去年12月，美联储重启扩表，启动短期国债购买计划以调控市场流动性，巩固对利率目标体系的掌控。 沃什曾于2006至2011年担任美联储理事，主张大幅削减美联储持有的债券规模，其鹰派言论曾引发市场 对美联储降息进程中断的担忧。高盛指出 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - For building materials, the view is that they will run in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and running weakly, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will be strongly volatile in the short - term, gradually transition to the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process building steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Building materials continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3]. Aluminum - As of October 27, the SMM imported bauxite index was $73.16 per ton, down $0.4 from the previous day due to high imported ore inventory. Domestic bauxite supply is tight, but price increases are limited due to falling alumina prices and high absolute inventory [3]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was flat at 62.4% week - on - week, down 0.1% from the previous week. Different sectors showed different trends: the operating rate of aluminum sheet and strip decreased by 1 percentage point to 67.0%, aluminum cable increased by 0.4% to 64.4%, aluminum profile increased slightly to 53.7%, aluminum foil decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 71.9%, and recycled aluminum remained at 58.6% [3]. - As of October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Macro overseas interference affects market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and it is expected that the price will remain high and volatile. Pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [4].

Core Viewpoint - The leader of the minor opposition party in Japan criticizes the Bank of Japan's quantitative tightening plan, urging a focus on boosting domestic demand and revitalizing the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Critique - The leader expresses concern that reducing the amount of bonds accepted by the Bank of Japan could complicate the issuance of government bonds and severely restrict economic policy [1] - The statement highlights potential political challenges the Bank of Japan may face regarding interest rate hikes and gradual bond purchase reductions [1] Group 2: Political Context - The opposition party, established in 2020, is a small populist party with only five seats in the National Diet, but its support has increased ahead of the upcoming Senate elections on July 20 [1] - There is growing interest in whether the party's election results could influence the policies of the ruling coalition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese ultra-long-term bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, with yields reaching historical highs due to concerns over central bank policies and fiscal issues [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The liquidity and demand for ultra-long-term bonds have decreased, leading to rising yields [1] - Some market participants are urging the Bank of Japan to increase its purchases of ultra-long-term bonds or halt its bond reduction plan amid the current market collapse [1] - There is a consensus that slowing down the bond reduction could alleviate market pressures, especially as debt issues gain more attention [1] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - The Japanese Prime Minister's statement that the country's fiscal situation is "worse than Greece" has intensified market fears [1] - The volatility in the bond market may trigger a chain reaction that could impact global markets, as it may lead Japanese investors to withdraw funds back to Japan [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Bank of Japan is set to review its quantitative tightening plan during its next policy meeting on June 16-17 [1] - Any signs of intervention or changes in the bond reduction plan from the central bank could exert pressure on the yen exchange rate [1]