市场因通胀预期上升和日元贬值压力加剧，预计日本央行可能被迫更激进加息，导致12月25日举行的日本2年期国债拍卖需求疲软。 12月25日，据彭博报道，衡量需求的关键指标投标倍数仅为3.26，低于上次的3.53及过去12个月平均的3.65。拍卖结果公布后，2年期国债收益率 随即升2.5个基点至1.125%，创1996年以来新高。 此次拍卖距离日本央行将政策利率上调至30年高位不到一周。疲弱的拍卖结果进一步凸显出市场对日本央行政策立场的不安情绪。10年期盈亏平 衡通胀率本周已升至2004年有数据以来的最高水平，强化了市场对央行行动落后于通胀曲线的普遍担忧。 加息预期推高短期收益率 2年期国债收益率对货币政策预期更为敏感，隔夜指数掉期显示，市场认为央行在明年9月前再次加息存在一定可能性。 三井住友信托资产管理公司高级策略师Katsutoshi Inadome表示： "市场仍担心日本央行落后于形势发展。这很可能促使投资者回避2年期债券，因为这类债券最容易受到此类风险影响。" 尽管日本当局本周对汇率发出口头警告后，日元贬值和收益率上升的势头有所缓解，但拍卖结果仍被视为衡量市场对央行政策立场看法的关键指 标。此前，财务大臣 ...

面对市场对债券供应过剩的担忧以及超长期国债收益率创历史新高的压力，日本政府计划大幅削减超长 期国债发行规模，以缓解债券市场紧张情绪。 12月24日，据路透报道，两名政府消息人士透露，日本下一财年新发超长期政府债券规模可能降至约17 万亿日元（1090亿美元），为17年来最低水平。同时，财务省维持10年期国债发行量不变。 这一举措凸显了政府对近期债券收益率持续上升的敏感态度。市场普遍预期，日本首相高市早苗提出的 大规模支出计划及扩张性财政政策将引发巨额政府债券发行，从而进一步推高收益率。 此次削减计划预计将直接影响债券市场的供需结构，为投资者提供一定的缓冲空间。与此同时，该举措 也反映出政府在推动经济刺激与遏制债务成本之间所面临的艰难权衡。 知情人士还表示，财务省还将保持2年期日本政府债券每月2.8万亿日元、5年期债券每月2.5万亿日元的 发行额不变。 超长期国债发行全面收缩 中短期国债发行维持不变 财务省计划对超长期国债发行进行全面削减。据知情人士透露，财务省正考虑在下一财年将20年期、30 年期及40年期日本国债的月度发行额各削减1000亿日元。 此举将使超长期国债总发行规模大幅下降。今年6月，财务省已被迫 ...

Group 1 - The demand for Japan's two-year government bond auction has dropped to its lowest level in 16 years, with an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.84, significantly lower than the previous auction's 4.47 and the 12-month average of 4.01 [1][4] - The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has risen to 0.866%, just a few basis points below the highest level since 2008, reflecting market speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1][4] - Japan's inflation rate has consistently exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, with the core CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year in July, surpassing market expectations [4][5] Group 2 - Concerns over rising inflation and expectations of increased government bond issuance following the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections have contributed to weak demand for Japanese government bonds [4][5] - The continuous rise in long-term government bond yields is starting to deter foreign investors, who are slowing their purchases of Japanese long-term bonds [5] - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming Tokyo CPI data, which is expected to show strong performance, potentially reinforcing the Bank of Japan's belief that inflation is moving towards sustainable targets [5]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese super-long-term government bonds rebounded amid pre-election volatility, reversing earlier sell-off concerns related to potential increased government spending due to the upcoming Senate elections [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - On Wednesday, prices of Japanese super-long-term government bonds increased, with the 30-year bond yield dropping by 10 basis points to 3.06% and the 40-year yield also decreasing by 10 basis points to 3.38% [1] - The 30-year yield had previously surged to its highest level since 1999 on Tuesday, indicating significant market fluctuations [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Katsutoshi Inadome, a senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, noted that investors likely engaged in buying to counteract the severe sell-off observed the previous day [1] - Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, commented on the ongoing political tension as elections approach, suggesting that the market has largely released its sell-off sentiment and may remain cautious until election results are announced [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's largest life insurance company, Nippon Life Insurance, anticipates a gradual decline in long-term Japanese government bond yields due to improving demand and progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The company expects the Japanese economy to slow down due to tariff impacts but does not foresee a recession [1] - Concerns about fiscal expansion are heightened due to increased US defense spending requests and the upcoming Japanese Senate elections [1] Group 2: Interest Rate and Bond Market - There is a risk of rising interest rates, but the Ministry of Finance is reducing the issuance of long-term bonds, which will narrow the supply-demand gap [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to slow down the pace of government bond purchase reductions starting from April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [1] - An interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may occur once in the second half of the fiscal year 2025 [1] Group 3: Potential Risks - If US-Japan negotiations falter and have significant economic impacts, there is a possibility that no interest rate hike will occur within the current fiscal year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing two significant risk events: the expiration of the equal tariff deadline on July 9 and the Senate elections on July 20, which could impact the yen and Japanese government bond yields [2][5]. Group 1: Equal Tariff Deadline - The deadline for the equal tariff suspension is approaching on July 9, with ongoing trade negotiations between the US and Japan stalled primarily over auto tariffs [5]. - If negotiations break down, the equal tariff rate could increase from the current 24% to between 30% and 35%, raising concerns about global economic growth and potentially leading to a stronger yen [5][6]. - Market participants are relatively optimistic about the tariff issue, with many expecting that the deadline may be extended and that the final tariff rates will not exceed current levels [5][6]. Group 2: Senate Elections - The focus will shift to the Japanese Senate elections on July 20, where the ruling coalition needs to secure at least 50 out of 125 seats to maintain a majority [7]. - If the ruling party loses, the market may anticipate more aggressive fiscal stimulus, which could lead to an increase in long-term Japanese government bond yields [7]. - Unlike the UK, Japan's situation is different due to its substantial current account surplus, which reduces reliance on foreign investment and minimizes direct impacts on the yen's exchange rate [7].

Core Insights - The Japanese ultra-long-term government bond market is facing significant challenges as inflation and interest rate expectations rise steadily [1] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is considering shifting government bond supply from ultra-long-term bonds to short-term bonds, which may only provide temporary relief [1] - The fundamental issue of rising yields on ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds remains unresolved, leading to a decrease in demand from long-term investors [1] Summary by Categories Market Conditions - The market is experiencing increasing expectations regarding inflation and interest rates set by the Bank of Japan [1] - Long-term investors, typically the largest buyers of long-term bonds, are reducing their demand due to the current market conditions [1] Government Actions - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is contemplating a shift in bond supply strategy, moving from ultra-long-term bonds to short-term bonds [1] - This strategy may only provide a temporary solution to the challenges faced by the ultra-long-term bond market [1] Investor Behavior - There is a notable decline in demand from long-term investors, which is a critical factor affecting the ultra-long-term bond market [1]

Group 1 - Japan plans to repurchase ultra-long-term government bonds to curb the sharp rise in bond yields, which has raised concerns among policymakers [1] - The yield on Japan's ultra-long-term bonds has reached historical highs, influenced by the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields and domestic supply issues [1] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance will make a final decision on the bond repurchase after meetings with market participants on June 20 and 23 [1] Group 2 - Analysts express optimism about the government's measures, suggesting that the challenges in the Japanese bond market are "technical" rather than "structural" [2] - Approximately 90% of Japanese government bonds are held domestically, indicating that supply-demand imbalances are more about timing than fundamental flaws [2] - The Bank of Japan may discuss slowing down its bond purchases in an upcoming policy meeting, with potential reductions in the quarterly purchase scale [2] Group 3 - The recent rise in long-term bond yields has supported the yen, as capital flows back to Japan may strengthen the currency [3] - Analysts predict that the USD/JPY exchange rate could decline from 144 to 136 by the end of September due to domestic investor behavior [3] - The Bank of Japan's hawkish stance may encourage domestic investors to favor local bonds over foreign ones [3]

Global Macro - The rapid rise in Japanese super-long government bond yields since mid-May 2025 has triggered turbulence in the global bond market, with the 40-year bond yield surpassing 3.68%, the highest since its issuance in 2007 [2][6][23] - The increase in yields reflects structural changes in the global bond market amid fiscal expansion and diverging central bank policies, with expectations of further fiscal easing pushing up risk premiums [2][6][23] Japanese Long-term Bond Yield Dynamics - The primary driver of the recent rise in Japanese long-term bond yields is the gradual normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, which has created conditions for the repricing of super-long government bonds [3][24] - A structural imbalance in supply and demand has exacerbated market volatility, as the absence of the Bank of Japan as a "super buyer" has removed crucial market support [3][30] - The demand side is also under pressure, with rising interest rate expectations leading domestic institutional investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, further weakening buying power [3][37] Economic Challenges and Policy Dilemmas - Japan's economy faces dual challenges of weak domestic demand and external tariff shocks, with the central bank caught in a policy dilemma [3][52] - The government debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 260%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as rising long-term bond yields increase borrowing costs [3][60] Spillover Effects on Global Bond Markets - The volatility in Japanese long-term bond yields has significant spillover effects on the U.S. Treasury market, with Japanese insurers and pension funds potentially exerting structural selling pressure on U.S. bonds [3][64] - The global bond market is undergoing a systematic reassessment of risk premiums, with Japan's long-term bond yields acting as a "ballast" in the global interest rate system [3][70] U.S. Treasury Yield Outlook - Short-term risks for U.S. Treasury yields are notable, with expectations of a resolution to the debt ceiling issue leading to substantial net issuance of $300-400 billion within 2-3 months [3][91] - The anticipated fiscal policies under the Trump administration may further pressure U.S. Treasury yields, with a projected range of 4.0-5.0% for the 10-year yield by the end of 2025 [3][105]

Group 1 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is considering adjustments to its bond issuance plan for the current fiscal year ending March 2026, potentially including a reduction in the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds [1] - A survey questionnaire was sent to market participants regarding the appropriate issuance scale of government bonds, indicating a strong policy signal from the Ministry of Finance [1] - Following the news, the yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds dropped significantly by 17.5 basis points to 2.37%, down from 2.6% the previous week [1] Group 2 - The recent poor demand in a 20-year bond auction has prompted the Japanese Ministry of Finance to reassess its bond issuance strategy, marking the weakest demand in over a decade [10] - Market attention is now focused on the upcoming 40-year bond auction, where weak demand could further increase yields and accelerate selling pressure, while strong demand could provide short-term stability [11]