在此前数周，围绕财政可持续性的担忧曾引发超长期国债剧烈波动。彭博称，随着收益率回落至接近1月初、即高市早苗突袭选举消息首次被报道时的水 平，市场对"尾部风险"的定价出现收敛。 这一轮下行集中体现在长端，30年期与40年期收益率的快速回落，反映出资金重新向期限更长、对财政预期更敏感的品种回流。 政策信号更克制，减税与发债担忧暂缓 彭博称，债市对高市早苗胜选的解读之一是，政治结果可能带来更清晰的政策路径，从而降低财政政策走向极端情形的概率。 在表态层面，高市早苗一方面承认市场对食品消费税减税的担忧，另一方面强调财政省不会通过发行新债来填补支出缺口，转而将审视补贴、特别税制与非 税收入，以寻找她所称"可持续"的资金来源。 日本超长期国债在大选后继续走强，高市早苗对食品消费税削减计划的谨慎表态缓解了投资者对财政政策的担忧，推动收益率进一步回落。 据彭博报道，40年期日本国债收益率下行10个基点，30年期收益率下行9.5个基点，回落至接近1月初水平，延续了选后反弹。 市场反应的关键在于高市早苗的最新表态。她在胜选后的首次记者会上提及市场对食品消费税两年减税计划的关注，并谈及提高国防和战略产业支出的目 标，但并未就下调食 ...

村松茂树表示："我对这一举措感到十分意外，此前并未料到美联储会参与其中。" 周一截至发稿，美元兑日元徘徊在155附近。上周，受日本可能出手干预汇市支撑日元的市场猜测影响，日元曾短暂升值至152.10兑1美元的三个月高点。 瑞穗金融集团旗下资产管理部门首席投资官村松茂树（Shigeki Muramatsu）表示，预计日本央行4月加息后，美元兑日元将跌破150关口。 这家截至去年9月末管理规模约5120亿美元的日本资产管理公司Asset Management One Co.，同样看好买入日本超长期国债——这一品种也是上月日本债市动 荡的核心标的，该机构认为，相较于日本的经济增长前景，这类债券的收益率已处于高位。 村松茂树在接受采访时称："市场有传言认为，现任政府执政下日本央行或难以加息，这一预期推动了日元走弱，但我认为实际情况并非如此。" 他的此番言论，也凸显出市场对日本央行货币政策收紧步伐过慢的担忧。正是这一担忧，推动日元在今年年初逼近2024年创下的数十年低点。 上月末，有消息称美国纽约联储（作为美国财政部的代理机构）开展了汇率核查，日元汇率随即突然反转走高。这一举措令众多投资者猝不及防——尽管美 国长期以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing increased inflation expectations and pressure from the depreciation of the yen, leading to a potential need for the Bank of Japan to adopt a more aggressive interest rate hike strategy, which has resulted in weak demand for the 2-year Japanese government bond auction held on December 25 [1][4]. Group 1: Auction Results - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 2-year bond auction was only 3.26, down from 3.53 in the previous auction and below the 12-month average of 3.65, indicating weak demand [1]. - Following the auction results, the yield on the 2-year government bond rose by 2.5 basis points to 1.125%, marking the highest level since 1996 [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - The weak auction results highlight market unease regarding the Bank of Japan's policy stance, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate reaching its highest level since data collection began in 2004 [4]. - There are concerns that the Bank of Japan is lagging behind inflation trends, which may lead investors to avoid 2-year bonds due to their sensitivity to such risks [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates a possibility of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan before September next year, as indicated by overnight index swaps [5]. - The Bank of Japan's recent verbal warnings regarding the yen's depreciation have somewhat alleviated the pressure, but the auction results remain a key indicator of market sentiment towards the central bank's policies [5]. Group 4: Bond Issuance Plans - Investors are concerned about the government's bond issuance plans related to the fiscal year 2026 budget, which is expected to be approved soon [6]. - Major dealers have expressed a desire to increase the issuance of 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds in the next fiscal year while calling for a reduction in the sale of ultra-long-term bonds [6]. - The new issuance of ultra-long-term bonds may be reduced to approximately 17 trillion yen (about 109 billion USD), the lowest level in 17 years [6].

Group 1 - The Japanese government plans to significantly reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds to alleviate market concerns over excess supply and rising yields, with the new issuance expected to drop to approximately 17 trillion yen (about 109 billion USD), the lowest level in 17 years [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance intends to cut the monthly issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds by 1 trillion yen each, reflecting ongoing structural pressures in the ultra-long-term bond market [2] - The government maintains stable issuance levels for medium- and short-term bonds, with plans to issue 31.2 trillion yen of 10-year bonds, keeping the monthly issuance at 2.6 trillion yen, consistent with current levels [2] Group 2 - Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has emphasized the need to focus on economic revitalization since taking office in October, indicating a shift away from strict fiscal restoration goals [3] - The upcoming budget is based on a record 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan aimed at mitigating the impact of rising living costs on the economy [3] - Despite rising bond yields, the government has toned down aggressive fiscal spending rhetoric, with Takashi stating that the government will not resort to "irresponsible" debt issuance or tax cuts [3]

Group 1 - The demand for Japan's two-year government bond auction has dropped to its lowest level in 16 years, with an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.84, significantly lower than the previous auction's 4.47 and the 12-month average of 4.01 [1][4] - The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has risen to 0.866%, just a few basis points below the highest level since 2008, reflecting market speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1][4] - Japan's inflation rate has consistently exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, with the core CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year in July, surpassing market expectations [4][5] Group 2 - Concerns over rising inflation and expectations of increased government bond issuance following the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections have contributed to weak demand for Japanese government bonds [4][5] - The continuous rise in long-term government bond yields is starting to deter foreign investors, who are slowing their purchases of Japanese long-term bonds [5] - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming Tokyo CPI data, which is expected to show strong performance, potentially reinforcing the Bank of Japan's belief that inflation is moving towards sustainable targets [5]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese super-long-term government bonds rebounded amid pre-election volatility, reversing earlier sell-off concerns related to potential increased government spending due to the upcoming Senate elections [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - On Wednesday, prices of Japanese super-long-term government bonds increased, with the 30-year bond yield dropping by 10 basis points to 3.06% and the 40-year yield also decreasing by 10 basis points to 3.38% [1] - The 30-year yield had previously surged to its highest level since 1999 on Tuesday, indicating significant market fluctuations [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Katsutoshi Inadome, a senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, noted that investors likely engaged in buying to counteract the severe sell-off observed the previous day [1] - Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, commented on the ongoing political tension as elections approach, suggesting that the market has largely released its sell-off sentiment and may remain cautious until election results are announced [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's largest life insurance company, Nippon Life Insurance, anticipates a gradual decline in long-term Japanese government bond yields due to improving demand and progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The company expects the Japanese economy to slow down due to tariff impacts but does not foresee a recession [1] - Concerns about fiscal expansion are heightened due to increased US defense spending requests and the upcoming Japanese Senate elections [1] Group 2: Interest Rate and Bond Market - There is a risk of rising interest rates, but the Ministry of Finance is reducing the issuance of long-term bonds, which will narrow the supply-demand gap [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to slow down the pace of government bond purchase reductions starting from April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [1] - An interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may occur once in the second half of the fiscal year 2025 [1] Group 3: Potential Risks - If US-Japan negotiations falter and have significant economic impacts, there is a possibility that no interest rate hike will occur within the current fiscal year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing two significant risk events: the expiration of the equal tariff deadline on July 9 and the Senate elections on July 20, which could impact the yen and Japanese government bond yields [2][5]. Group 1: Equal Tariff Deadline - The deadline for the equal tariff suspension is approaching on July 9, with ongoing trade negotiations between the US and Japan stalled primarily over auto tariffs [5]. - If negotiations break down, the equal tariff rate could increase from the current 24% to between 30% and 35%, raising concerns about global economic growth and potentially leading to a stronger yen [5][6]. - Market participants are relatively optimistic about the tariff issue, with many expecting that the deadline may be extended and that the final tariff rates will not exceed current levels [5][6]. Group 2: Senate Elections - The focus will shift to the Japanese Senate elections on July 20, where the ruling coalition needs to secure at least 50 out of 125 seats to maintain a majority [7]. - If the ruling party loses, the market may anticipate more aggressive fiscal stimulus, which could lead to an increase in long-term Japanese government bond yields [7]. - Unlike the UK, Japan's situation is different due to its substantial current account surplus, which reduces reliance on foreign investment and minimizes direct impacts on the yen's exchange rate [7].

Core Insights - The Japanese ultra-long-term government bond market is facing significant challenges as inflation and interest rate expectations rise steadily [1] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is considering shifting government bond supply from ultra-long-term bonds to short-term bonds, which may only provide temporary relief [1] - The fundamental issue of rising yields on ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds remains unresolved, leading to a decrease in demand from long-term investors [1] Summary by Categories Market Conditions - The market is experiencing increasing expectations regarding inflation and interest rates set by the Bank of Japan [1] - Long-term investors, typically the largest buyers of long-term bonds, are reducing their demand due to the current market conditions [1] Government Actions - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is contemplating a shift in bond supply strategy, moving from ultra-long-term bonds to short-term bonds [1] - This strategy may only provide a temporary solution to the challenges faced by the ultra-long-term bond market [1] Investor Behavior - There is a notable decline in demand from long-term investors, which is a critical factor affecting the ultra-long-term bond market [1]

Group 1 - Japan plans to repurchase ultra-long-term government bonds to curb the sharp rise in bond yields, which has raised concerns among policymakers [1] - The yield on Japan's ultra-long-term bonds has reached historical highs, influenced by the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields and domestic supply issues [1] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance will make a final decision on the bond repurchase after meetings with market participants on June 20 and 23 [1] Group 2 - Analysts express optimism about the government's measures, suggesting that the challenges in the Japanese bond market are "technical" rather than "structural" [2] - Approximately 90% of Japanese government bonds are held domestically, indicating that supply-demand imbalances are more about timing than fundamental flaws [2] - The Bank of Japan may discuss slowing down its bond purchases in an upcoming policy meeting, with potential reductions in the quarterly purchase scale [2] Group 3 - The recent rise in long-term bond yields has supported the yen, as capital flows back to Japan may strengthen the currency [3] - Analysts predict that the USD/JPY exchange rate could decline from 144 to 136 by the end of September due to domestic investor behavior [3] - The Bank of Japan's hawkish stance may encourage domestic investors to favor local bonds over foreign ones [3]