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黄金还有多大上涨空间?
雪球· 2025-10-04 02:38
↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 路小艾 来源:雪球 以前我有一篇文章讲黄金估值的时候提到过,我有一个简单公式:黄金现货(美元)合理价格=美债规模(万亿)*100。 但当时没解释为什么会有这个公式,今天是补上欠债。 一、关于定性和定量 很多人在提到看多黄金的理由时候,总是会提到美国相对衰落、美元信誉度下降、美债危机、世界格局改变、我们国家崛起、人民币国际化、战争 避险……等等因素。 这些因素都没错,我都同意,实际上我自己有时候也会这么说,但是,我谈论这些话题的时间比较少,而更多的时间,则会从世界货币总量、美债 规模这两个指标去进行考量。 为什么呢? 因为,看多只是逻辑定性,无法解决定量问题,也就无法进行估值。我们要进行估值,就不能仅仅只是看多,还必须进行定量。 或者我们换一个角度来解释。 现在我提一个问题:看多黄金到多少才合适呢?总不能无限看多对吧?涨多了的话是不是有可能涨过头了?1600美元可以看多,3200美元还可以 看多,但4800美元是不是还能看多呢?要怎么判断? 要解决这些问题,就必须定量。 另外,对金 ...
量子网络探测弯曲时空中的量子效应
news flash· 2025-07-15 22:11
Core Insights - A research team from Stevens Institute of Technology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Harvard University has proposed a new method to test quantum theory in curved spacetime using quantum networks, marking a significant advancement in fundamental physics experiments [1] Group 1 - The introduction of quantum networks into fundamental physics problems is a novel approach [1] - This research has important implications for understanding quantum theory in complex environments [1] - The study represents a collaboration among prestigious institutions, highlighting the interdisciplinary nature of modern scientific research [1]
深度科普之《平行宇宙》,宇宙之外还有无数宇宙?(近10000字)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-13 16:50
Group 1 - The concept of parallel universes is not merely a creation of science fiction but is derived from scientific observations and theories [1] - There are various theories regarding parallel universes, some of which are simpler to understand while others are more complex, particularly those related to string theory [3][32] - The observable universe is limited to a sphere with a radius of approximately 41 billion light-years due to the finite speed of light and the expansion of the universe [5][12] Group 2 - The concept of the observable universe suggests that regions beyond our observable limits are completely independent and cannot be influenced by us [7][11] - The universe's expansion has been accelerating since about 7 billion years ago, which means that some galaxies currently within our observable universe may eventually move beyond our reach [12] - If the universe is infinite, there could be countless parallel universes with identical arrangements of particles, leading to the existence of duplicates of ourselves in different scenarios [14][16] Group 3 - The inflationary universe theory addresses the uniformity of cosmic microwave background radiation by proposing a rapid expansion of the universe shortly after the Big Bang [18][22] - This rapid inflation occurred approximately 10^-36 seconds after the Big Bang and expanded the universe by a factor of 10^26 [22] - The concept of eternal inflation suggests that while our local universe may have stopped inflating, the overall universe continues to expand indefinitely, creating numerous "pocket" universes [26][31] Group 4 - String theory introduces the idea of multiple dimensions and membranes, suggesting that our universe exists on a three-dimensional membrane among many others [32] - Quantum parallel universe theory posits that when a quantum event occurs, the universe splits into multiple branches, each representing different outcomes [57][61] - The double-slit experiment illustrates the wave-particle duality of electrons, leading to the conclusion that they can exist in multiple states simultaneously until observed [40][49]