平行宇宙
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量子科学带来的“脑洞”:我们能否前往“平行宇宙”?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-27 15:38
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of quantum mechanics as it approaches its 100th anniversary in 2025, highlighting its impact on both scientific understanding and popular culture, particularly in science fiction [1] Group 1: Quantum Mechanics and Theories - Quantum mechanics has fundamentally altered human understanding of the objective world and has inspired numerous science fiction narratives, including the concept of "parallel universes" [1] - Hugh Everett proposed the "Many-Worlds Interpretation" in the 1950s to address the "measurement problem" in quantum physics, suggesting that particles exist in multiple states simultaneously until observed, leading to the creation of multiple universes [2] - The "Many-Worlds Interpretation" is considered by some scholars, like Sean Carroll, as the most elegant explanation of quantum mechanics, as it avoids the need for additional "collapse" rules and aligns well with mathematical formulations [3] Group 2: Criticism and Popularity of Theories - Despite its supporters, the "Many-Worlds Interpretation" faces criticism from notable physicists like Roger Penrose, who argue that it should be abandoned due to its inability to be tested or falsified [3] - A survey conducted by the journal Nature indicated that the "Many-Worlds Interpretation" ranks as the third most popular theory among physicists, with the "Copenhagen Interpretation" being the most favored [3] Group 3: Philosophical Implications and Cultural Impact - The interpretations of quantum mechanics remain largely philosophical and do not provide different experimental predictions, indicating a need for new physical phenomena that extend beyond current quantum measurement theories [4] - If parallel universes exist, they may not differ significantly from our own, as they would likely share the same physical laws and human experiences, leading to only minor variations [5] - The scientific community generally believes that physical laws prevent individuals from traveling between parallel universes, reinforcing the idea that events in one universe do not affect another [6] - Science fiction has played a role in popularizing complex quantum concepts, stimulating public interest in scientific exploration, even if it diverges from strict scientific accuracy [6]
大类资产定价的 K 型背离--“财政风险溢价”的后续演变
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-05 13:52
Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a dangerous and divided phase driven by "fiscal dominance," where traditional macroeconomic logic has failed, leading to a significant divergence in asset pricing, particularly between U.S. stocks and gold, which are now tools for hedging fiat currency credit risk [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since 2023, global asset pricing has entered a new "fiscal dominance" phase, with traditional macroeconomic transmission mechanisms largely ineffective [2]. - The market exhibits a pronounced "K-shaped divergence," where U.S. stocks continue to rise despite declining employment signals, while gold reaches new highs in a high real interest rate environment [2][3]. - The core risk stems not from the economic cycle itself but from hidden fiscal pressures, with a current implied interest rate gap of up to 600 basis points [2][10]. Group 2: Asset Pricing Changes - The traditional macro anchors have failed, leading to a decoupling of U.S. stocks from economic fundamentals, as evidenced by the S&P 500 reaching new highs despite declining job openings [3]. - Gold has completely ignored the pressures of high real interest rates, showing an independent trend that diverges from TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) [6]. - Copper's price movements are no longer closely tied to traditional inflation logic, indicating a broader shift in asset pricing dynamics [7]. Group 3: Quantitative Analysis - The deviation of U.S. stocks and interest rates from traditional models is significant, with a divergence of approximately 140%-170% [11]. - Gold exhibits the most extreme "decoupling" characteristics, with a deviation exceeding 400% [13]. - Copper shows a relatively moderate deviation of about 44% [16]. Group 4: Future Pathways - The implied fiscal risk premium will not disappear but will shift between different assets, with three potential macro pathways outlined: a rational return of U.S. stocks, a dual consistency between stocks and gold, and a mutual understanding between stocks and bonds [19][21]. - A mild recovery is likely in the short term, with the market remaining in a "golden coordinate system" illusion, while inflation expectations are suppressed [21]. - If inflation becomes uncontrollable due to political pressures, fiscal risks will become more apparent, leading to rising interest rates and a potential decline in risk assets [22].
深度科普之《平行宇宙》,宇宙之外还有无数宇宙?(近10000字)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-13 16:50
Group 1 - The concept of parallel universes is not merely a creation of science fiction but is derived from scientific observations and theories [1] - There are various theories regarding parallel universes, some of which are simpler to understand while others are more complex, particularly those related to string theory [3][32] - The observable universe is limited to a sphere with a radius of approximately 41 billion light-years due to the finite speed of light and the expansion of the universe [5][12] Group 2 - The concept of the observable universe suggests that regions beyond our observable limits are completely independent and cannot be influenced by us [7][11] - The universe's expansion has been accelerating since about 7 billion years ago, which means that some galaxies currently within our observable universe may eventually move beyond our reach [12] - If the universe is infinite, there could be countless parallel universes with identical arrangements of particles, leading to the existence of duplicates of ourselves in different scenarios [14][16] Group 3 - The inflationary universe theory addresses the uniformity of cosmic microwave background radiation by proposing a rapid expansion of the universe shortly after the Big Bang [18][22] - This rapid inflation occurred approximately 10^-36 seconds after the Big Bang and expanded the universe by a factor of 10^26 [22] - The concept of eternal inflation suggests that while our local universe may have stopped inflating, the overall universe continues to expand indefinitely, creating numerous "pocket" universes [26][31] Group 4 - String theory introduces the idea of multiple dimensions and membranes, suggesting that our universe exists on a three-dimensional membrane among many others [32] - Quantum parallel universe theory posits that when a quantum event occurs, the universe splits into multiple branches, each representing different outcomes [57][61] - The double-slit experiment illustrates the wave-particle duality of electrons, leading to the conclusion that they can exist in multiple states simultaneously until observed [40][49]
中国银河证券:推理算力重要性提升 光模块等算力细分赛道发展再加速
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-03-24 08:58
Core Insights - The importance of inference computing power is increasing, with significant growth expected in related sectors such as optical modules and chips, driven by advancements in hardware and software from companies like NVIDIA [1][4] Group 1: Inference Computing Power Growth - Inference computing power is projected to continue growing, with NVIDIA's CEO stating that the demand for computing power will be 100 times greater than in the past to support advancements like AGI and embodied intelligent robots [1][2] - The number of tokens processed by models has increased to over 100 trillion, with inference models requiring 20 times more tokens and 150 times more computational power than before [2] - NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture shows a performance improvement of 68 times over the previous Hopper architecture, leading to an 87% reduction in costs [2] Group 2: Hardware and Software Developments - NVIDIA introduced the upgraded Blackwell Ultra architecture, emphasizing its potential to generate 50 times more revenue for data centers, with a clear development roadmap extending to 2026 and beyond [3] - The launch of the open AI engine stack, Nvidia Dynamo, aims to simplify inference deployment and scaling, potentially creating a new paradigm for efficiency in hardware and software [3] - The introduction of Nvidia Llama Nemotron is expected to serve as a foundational model for inference, facilitating exploration in related areas and forming an ecosystem [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The current landscape indicates that the demand for computing power is not declining but is instead being stimulated by the growth of inference applications, suggesting substantial investment opportunities in the sector [4] - Recommended investment targets include telecom operators such as China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, as well as companies in optical modules and chips like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Guosheng, and others [4]