2025 年 12 月 30 日 建筑开工有所回升 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 供需：建筑开工转暖，工业开工有韧性，需求仍弱 1.建筑开工：部分开工率季节性位置回升，房建同比好于基建。最近两周（12 月 14 日至 12 月 27 日），石油沥青装置开工率、磨机运转率季节性位置回升至同期历 史中位，水泥发运率仍处于同期历史低位。基建项目水泥直供量环比回落，同比 降幅扩大，房建水泥用量环比变化较小，同比降幅收窄。资金方面，建筑工地资 金到位率同比低于 2024 年同期。 2.工业生产端，整体景气度仍处于历史中高位，高炉焦化开工转弱。最近两周（12 月 14 日至 12 月 27 日），工业开工整体景气度仍处于历史中高位，但部分开工转 弱。化工链中 PX 开工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中位，汽车半钢胎 开工率弱于 2024 年同期，高炉与焦化企业开工率降至历史中位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，汽车、家电销售仍弱。最近两周，螺纹钢、线材、建 材表观需求均处 ...

Group 1 - The article presents a formula for estimating the reasonable price of gold, which is based on the scale of U.S. debt: Gold Spot Price (USD) = U.S. Debt Scale (Trillions) * 100 [3][14] - The author emphasizes the importance of quantitative analysis in determining gold prices, arguing that qualitative factors alone are insufficient for valuation [5][6][7] - The relationship between gold value and global currency supply is explained, with the author likening individual perceptions of gold value to quantum states, leading to a stable macroeconomic price for gold [9][10][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the rationale for using U.S. debt as a proxy for global currency supply, highlighting the stability of the dollar's influence and its role in central bank reserves [12][13] - Historical data supports the formula, showing that gold prices have fluctuated around the U.S. debt scale divided by 100 since the 1990s [15] - As of September 2025, the U.S. debt is projected to reach approximately $38 trillion, with gold prices currently exceeding $3,800, indicating alignment with the formula [16] Group 3 - Two incremental factors that could influence gold prices are identified: increased market demand due to geopolitical tensions and a long-term decline in the dollar's status [17][18] - The article predicts that the U.S. debt will surpass $40 trillion in the coming years, suggesting that gold prices could stabilize around $4,000 based on the formula, with potential increases to $4,500-$5,000 due to additional demand factors [20]

Market Performance - On September 26, the Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 862.50 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.88% from the previous day [1][2] - The opening price for the day was 857.70 CNY per gram, with a high of 865.28 CNY and a low of 857.38 CNY [1][2] Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on interest rate policies, indicating ongoing internal divisions regarding the need for further rate cuts [3] - Recent economic data showed an increase in U.S. personal consumption expenditures and GDP growth, leading to a reduced necessity for rate cuts by the Fed [4] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September was recorded at 50.2, remaining above the growth threshold, while the Eurozone's PMI showed a decline [4] Fiscal and Monetary Conditions - The U.S. banking system's reserves fell below $3 trillion for the first time since January 1, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for August was reported at $344.79 billion, driven by increased spending and weaker corporate tax revenues [5] - The rising fiscal deficit and national debt, now at $37 trillion, continue to support precious metals [5] Political Developments - Significant political events have heightened global sensitivity, with the U.S. imposing new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and other goods, potentially benefiting gold in the long term [6] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen notable price increases, driven by rising leasing rates in the silver market [7] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are influenced by the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, with recent liquidity releases leading to recoveries in gold, silver, and equities [7] - Long-term support for precious metals remains strong due to global debt and geopolitical factors, although caution is advised for short-term trading volatility [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to remain cautious about rate cuts in June and July. The market generally expects the Fed to maintain a prudent stance on rate cuts. There are also uncertainties in the US - EU trade negotiations after Trump's tariff announcement, and there are concerns about the impact of US Treasury bond maturities on the market [2]. - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, but the timing of the supply increase needs data verification. The demand in the US may enter a peak season, and the overall supply - demand situation of crude oil is under pressure [2]. - Geopolitical negotiations in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, US - Iran, and Gaza are progressing slowly, with a possibility of causing disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 23, SC crude oil futures were at 452.80 yuan/barrel, down 0.20% from the previous day and 0.75% from the previous week. WTI was at 61.76 dollars/barrel, up 1.56% from the previous day but down 1.17% from the previous week. Brent was at 65.03 dollars/barrel, up 1.56% from the previous day and down 0.46% from the previous week [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The SC - WTI spread was 1.20 dollars/barrel, down 47.59% from the previous day but up 29.60% from the previous week. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.27 dollars/barrel, with a significant change of - 451.20% from the previous day and - 270.82% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Strategic petroleum reserves were 400.49 million barrels, up 0.21% from the previous level. EIA US commercial crude oil inventories were 443.16 million barrels, up 0.30% from the previous week, and Cushing crude oil inventories were 23.44 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week [2]. - **Position Data**: Non - commercial net positions in CFTC were 18.64 million contracts, up 0.60% from the previous week, and commercial net positions were - 18.68 million contracts, up 1.06% from the previous week [2]. b. Fundamental Overview - **Supply**: OPEC+ is likely to increase production by 41.1 barrels per day in July, but the exact implementation time needs to be verified by data. Saudi Arabia may further increase production if other members do not comply with quotas [2]. - **Demand**: The US may enter a peak demand season, and data verification is needed [2]. - **Geopolitics**: Negotiations in the Russia - Ukraine, US - Iran, and Gaza regions are progressing slowly. Although the probability of large - scale conflict escalation is low, there is still a possibility of short - term intensification [2]. c. Operation Suggestions - Technically, after the oil price broke through the multi - year production - cut bottom, it is continuously testing the pressure level. The WTI around 64 dollars/barrel is still under pressure, and it shows a short - term strong operation trend. - In the medium - term, maintain the idea of short - selling on rallies, but be cautious of short - term upward movements. For those speculating on geopolitical changes, options can be considered [2]. d. Industry News - Trump agreed to extend the US - EU trade negotiation deadline to July 9 [3]. - OPEC+ will hold a JMMC meeting on Wednesday to discuss the possibility of a third consecutive production increase before the June 1 ministerial meeting [4]. - Iran's parliament members emphasized that uranium enrichment is Iran's "red line" and "inalienable right" and will not back down in negotiations with the US [4]. - The EU is considering removing about 20 banks from SWIFT, lowering the price cap on Russian oil, and banning the Nord Stream gas pipeline project [4]. - US drilling companies have reduced the number of oil and gas rigs for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level since November 2021 [5]. - The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in June with a probability of 94.4% and in July with a probability of 74.9% [5]. - The market expects the US April core PCE price index monthly rate to rise by 0.1% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The probability of OPEC+ unitedly cutting production to support prices at the current oil price level is lower than before. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in US debt growth may affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are trending towards缓和 but still require sensitivity to emergencies. In a macro - pressured situation, the probability of new geopolitical information is higher. The short - term rebound of oil prices is facing resistance, and the medium - term weak pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to sell high in the medium term and try to place short positions or bearish positions near the pressure level in the short term, and consider placing out - of - the - money put options due to the approaching holiday in China [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, the Sc crude oil futures price was 496.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.55% from the previous day and 1.10% from the previous week; WTI was 63.17 dollars/barrel, up 0.64% from the previous day; Brent was 66.91 dollars/barrel, up 0.62% from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The Sc - WTI spread was 5.67 dollars/barrel, up 0.09% from the previous day; the Sc - Brent spread was 1.93 dollars/barrel, down 0.26% from the previous day; the Brent - WTI spread was 3.74 dollars/barrel, up 93.32% from the previous day [2] - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 68.83 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% from the previous week; Brent DTD was 67.51 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.13% from the previous week; Oman was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; Dubai was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; ESPO was 63.99 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 2.55% from the previous week [2] - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6680.09 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.64% from the previous week; gasoline in East China was 7888.91 yuan/ton, down 0.00% from the previous day and down 0.59% from the previous week [2] 3.2 Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory**: The US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.12% from the previous week; commercial crude oil was 443.10 million barrels, up 0.06% from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 25.02 million barrels, down 0.34% from the previous week; gasoline was 229.54 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week; distillates were 106.88 million barrels, down 2.15% from the previous week [2] - **Position**: The non - commercial net position of CFTC was 17.10 million contracts, up 16.80% from the previous week; the commercial net position was - 17.39 million contracts, down 13.12% from the previous week; the non - report net position was 0.29 million contracts, down 60.11% from the previous week [2] 3.3 Geopolitical and Policy News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US would not expand sanctions on Russia to avoid interfering with the peace process in the Ukraine conflict, but Trump proposed possible financial or secondary sanctions on Putin. Russia and Ukraine are closer to a peace agreement. The Iran's Abbas Port explosion injured 195 people, and the explosion did not affect energy facilities. The US - Iran talks will continue next week, and a high - level meeting is tentatively scheduled for May 3. Trump said he would not cancel tariffs on China unless China made substantial concessions, while China emphasized that the US should correct its mistakes and cancel all unilateral tariffs [3][5] 3.4 Market and Macro News - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in June is 58.6%. European Central Bank policymakers are more confident about a rate cut in June due to continuous inflation decline. The impact of US tariff policies will start to show nationwide at the end of next month, and it will have a greater impact on low - income Americans. Crude oil futures have rebounded strongly from the trough earlier this month, but in euro terms, Brent oil futures have fallen 11% this year, and European buyers' actual oil purchase cost has dropped more significantly, which may boost oil demand marginally [6][7]