↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 路小艾 来源：雪球 以前我有一篇文章讲黄金估值的时候提到过，我有一个简单公式：黄金现货（美元）合理价格=美债规模（万亿）*100。 但当时没解释为什么会有这个公式，今天是补上欠债。 一、关于定性和定量 很多人在提到看多黄金的理由时候，总是会提到美国相对衰落、美元信誉度下降、美债危机、世界格局改变、我们国家崛起、人民币国际化、战争 避险……等等因素。 这些因素都没错，我都同意，实际上我自己有时候也会这么说，但是，我谈论这些话题的时间比较少，而更多的时间，则会从世界货币总量、美债 规模这两个指标去进行考量。 为什么呢？ 因为，看多只是逻辑定性，无法解决定量问题，也就无法进行估值。我们要进行估值，就不能仅仅只是看多，还必须进行定量。 或者我们换一个角度来解释。 现在我提一个问题：看多黄金到多少才合适呢？总不能无限看多对吧？涨多了的话是不是有可能涨过头了？1600美元可以看多，3200美元还可以 看多，但4800美元是不是还能看多呢？要怎么判断？ 要解决这些问题，就必须定量。 另外，对金 ...

【宏观消息】 美联储洛根表示现在是时候为新的基准利率做好准备了，美联储应放弃联邦基金利率 改用国债抵押隔 夜利率；美联储戴利表示我认为随着时间推移，可能还需要进一步降息；美联储理事鲍曼表示现在应转 向关注就业，而非通胀；美联储施密德表示美联储资产负债表的关键问题是准备金的适当水平，储备金 可能降至约2.6万亿美元，资产负债表缩减越多越好；美联储古尔斯比表示对基于就业数据放缓而提前 实施过多降息感到有些不安；美联储理事米兰表示我认为利率过于具有限制性，幅度为150-200个基 点，应以50个基点的步伐逐步减少限制性。本周美联储密集发言显示内部分歧依旧存在，过度的降息交 易存在回调风险。 美国第二季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 2.5%，预期1.7%，前值1.6%；美国第二季度实际GDP年化季 率终值 3.8%，预期3.30%，前值3.30%；主要上修项为净出口贡献。本周经济数据对市场的影响加大， 在2季度经济数据显示向好后，市场降低了美联储降息的必要性，市场对美联储10月维持利率不变的预 期概率由10%上升至15%；美国9月标普制造业PMI录得50.2，仍处枯荣线之上；而相较而言欧元区9月 的制造业PMI出现了滑 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to remain cautious about rate cuts in June and July. The market generally expects the Fed to maintain a prudent stance on rate cuts. There are also uncertainties in the US - EU trade negotiations after Trump's tariff announcement, and there are concerns about the impact of US Treasury bond maturities on the market [2]. - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, but the timing of the supply increase needs data verification. The demand in the US may enter a peak season, and the overall supply - demand situation of crude oil is under pressure [2]. - Geopolitical negotiations in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, US - Iran, and Gaza are progressing slowly, with a possibility of causing disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 23, SC crude oil futures were at 452.80 yuan/barrel, down 0.20% from the previous day and 0.75% from the previous week. WTI was at 61.76 dollars/barrel, up 1.56% from the previous day but down 1.17% from the previous week. Brent was at 65.03 dollars/barrel, up 1.56% from the previous day and down 0.46% from the previous week [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The SC - WTI spread was 1.20 dollars/barrel, down 47.59% from the previous day but up 29.60% from the previous week. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.27 dollars/barrel, with a significant change of - 451.20% from the previous day and - 270.82% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Strategic petroleum reserves were 400.49 million barrels, up 0.21% from the previous level. EIA US commercial crude oil inventories were 443.16 million barrels, up 0.30% from the previous week, and Cushing crude oil inventories were 23.44 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week [2]. - **Position Data**: Non - commercial net positions in CFTC were 18.64 million contracts, up 0.60% from the previous week, and commercial net positions were - 18.68 million contracts, up 1.06% from the previous week [2]. b. Fundamental Overview - **Supply**: OPEC+ is likely to increase production by 41.1 barrels per day in July, but the exact implementation time needs to be verified by data. Saudi Arabia may further increase production if other members do not comply with quotas [2]. - **Demand**: The US may enter a peak demand season, and data verification is needed [2]. - **Geopolitics**: Negotiations in the Russia - Ukraine, US - Iran, and Gaza regions are progressing slowly. Although the probability of large - scale conflict escalation is low, there is still a possibility of short - term intensification [2]. c. Operation Suggestions - Technically, after the oil price broke through the multi - year production - cut bottom, it is continuously testing the pressure level. The WTI around 64 dollars/barrel is still under pressure, and it shows a short - term strong operation trend. - In the medium - term, maintain the idea of short - selling on rallies, but be cautious of short - term upward movements. For those speculating on geopolitical changes, options can be considered [2]. d. Industry News - Trump agreed to extend the US - EU trade negotiation deadline to July 9 [3]. - OPEC+ will hold a JMMC meeting on Wednesday to discuss the possibility of a third consecutive production increase before the June 1 ministerial meeting [4]. - Iran's parliament members emphasized that uranium enrichment is Iran's "red line" and "inalienable right" and will not back down in negotiations with the US [4]. - The EU is considering removing about 20 banks from SWIFT, lowering the price cap on Russian oil, and banning the Nord Stream gas pipeline project [4]. - US drilling companies have reduced the number of oil and gas rigs for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level since November 2021 [5]. - The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in June with a probability of 94.4% and in July with a probability of 74.9% [5]. - The market expects the US April core PCE price index monthly rate to rise by 0.1% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The probability of OPEC+ unitedly cutting production to support prices at the current oil price level is lower than before. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in US debt growth may affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are trending towards缓和 but still require sensitivity to emergencies. In a macro - pressured situation, the probability of new geopolitical information is higher. The short - term rebound of oil prices is facing resistance, and the medium - term weak pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to sell high in the medium term and try to place short positions or bearish positions near the pressure level in the short term, and consider placing out - of - the - money put options due to the approaching holiday in China [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, the Sc crude oil futures price was 496.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.55% from the previous day and 1.10% from the previous week; WTI was 63.17 dollars/barrel, up 0.64% from the previous day; Brent was 66.91 dollars/barrel, up 0.62% from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The Sc - WTI spread was 5.67 dollars/barrel, up 0.09% from the previous day; the Sc - Brent spread was 1.93 dollars/barrel, down 0.26% from the previous day; the Brent - WTI spread was 3.74 dollars/barrel, up 93.32% from the previous day [2] - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 68.83 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% from the previous week; Brent DTD was 67.51 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.13% from the previous week; Oman was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; Dubai was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; ESPO was 63.99 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 2.55% from the previous week [2] - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6680.09 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.64% from the previous week; gasoline in East China was 7888.91 yuan/ton, down 0.00% from the previous day and down 0.59% from the previous week [2] 3.2 Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory**: The US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.12% from the previous week; commercial crude oil was 443.10 million barrels, up 0.06% from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 25.02 million barrels, down 0.34% from the previous week; gasoline was 229.54 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week; distillates were 106.88 million barrels, down 2.15% from the previous week [2] - **Position**: The non - commercial net position of CFTC was 17.10 million contracts, up 16.80% from the previous week; the commercial net position was - 17.39 million contracts, down 13.12% from the previous week; the non - report net position was 0.29 million contracts, down 60.11% from the previous week [2] 3.3 Geopolitical and Policy News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US would not expand sanctions on Russia to avoid interfering with the peace process in the Ukraine conflict, but Trump proposed possible financial or secondary sanctions on Putin. Russia and Ukraine are closer to a peace agreement. The Iran's Abbas Port explosion injured 195 people, and the explosion did not affect energy facilities. The US - Iran talks will continue next week, and a high - level meeting is tentatively scheduled for May 3. Trump said he would not cancel tariffs on China unless China made substantial concessions, while China emphasized that the US should correct its mistakes and cancel all unilateral tariffs [3][5] 3.4 Market and Macro News - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in June is 58.6%. European Central Bank policymakers are more confident about a rate cut in June due to continuous inflation decline. The impact of US tariff policies will start to show nationwide at the end of next month, and it will have a greater impact on low - income Americans. Crude oil futures have rebounded strongly from the trough earlier this month, but in euro terms, Brent oil futures have fallen 11% this year, and European buyers' actual oil purchase cost has dropped more significantly, which may boost oil demand marginally [6][7]