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【金工】量能决定短期反弹高度——金融工程市场跟踪周报20251130(祁嫣然/陈颖/张威)
光大证券研究· 2025-11-30 23:06
Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound this week, with the ChiNext Index leading the major broad indices. However, trading volume showed a contraction, indicating a potential mismatch with the market's rebound performance, which may limit the strength of future rebounds [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, the SSE 50 by 0.47%, the CSI 300 by 1.64%, the CSI 500 by 3.14%, the CSI 1000 by 3.77%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.54% [4] Valuation Insights - As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index and SSE 50 are in the "danger" valuation percentile, while the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index are in the "moderate" valuation percentile [4] - In terms of industry classification, sectors such as coal, steel, building materials, light manufacturing, electric equipment and new energy, defense, retail, textiles, pharmaceuticals, banking, electronics, computers, and comprehensive finance are in the "danger" valuation percentile. Conversely, food and beverage, as well as non-bank financials, are in the "safe" valuation percentile [5] Fund Flow and Institutional Interest - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention this week were Luxshare Precision (396 institutions), Dingtai High-Tech (240), Huichuan Technology (193), Jerry Holdings (168), and Amlogic (129) [6] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 19.841 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing HKD 9.349 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing HKD 10.492 billion [6] - The median return for stock ETFs this week was 2.31%, with a net outflow of CNY 40.564 billion. In contrast, cross-border ETFs had a median return of 3.22% and a net inflow of CNY 0.279 billion [6] Market Sentiment - The degree of separation among fund clusters decreased compared to the previous week, indicating an increase in excess returns for clustered stocks and funds [7]
——金融工程市场跟踪周报20251130:量能决定短期反弹高度-20251130
EBSCN· 2025-11-30 07:45
2025 年 11 月 30 日 总量研究 量能决定短期反弹高度 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20251130 本周(2025.11.24-2025.11.28,下同)A 股市场震荡反弹,创业板指领涨主要 宽基指数。量能表现方面,本周主要宽基指数量能逆势收缩,当前量能状态与市 场反弹表现不匹配,后续反弹力度或受量能压制收窄。资金面方面,本周融资增 加额转正,股票型 ETF 资金延续净流出,资金方面仍有分歧。 结合本周市场反弹高度、量能表现以及资金分歧状态,后市反弹力度或减弱,市 场再度进入震荡区间。中长线仍看好"红利+科技"主线,红利或在波动方面占 优。 本周上证综指上涨 1.40%,上证 50 上涨 0.47%,沪深 300 上涨 1.64%,中证 500 上涨 3.14%,中证 1000 上涨 3.77%,创业板指上涨 4.54%,北证 50 指数 上涨 0.75%。 截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日,宽基指数来看,上证指数和上证 50 指数处于估值分 位数"危险"等级,沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 和创业板指处于估值分位 数"适中"等级。 中信一级行业分类来看,煤炭、钢铁、建材、轻工制 ...