Core Viewpoint - Nornickel has significantly revised its nickel supply surplus forecasts for this year and 2026, indicating a substantial increase in expected supply due to rising production in Indonesia [1] Nickel Market Summary - Nornickel has raised its forecast for this year's nickel supply surplus to 240,000 tons, up from the previous estimate of 120,000 tons made in July [1] - The company has also increased its 2026 supply surplus forecast to over 270,000 tons, more than double the earlier prediction [1] - The global nickel market has been in a state of surplus for the past four years, primarily driven by the rapid increase in supply from Indonesia [1] Palladium Market Summary - Nornickel expects the palladium market to remain balanced this year without considering investment demand [1] - If investment demand is taken into account, a supply shortfall of 200,000 ounces is anticipated in the palladium market [1] - For 2026, a supply shortfall of 100,000 ounces is projected in the palladium market, excluding investment activities [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - LME copper prices rose by $302, or 2.87%, closing at $10,820 per ton due to easing trade concerns and improved copper import data from China [1] - COMEX copper reached an intraday high of $5.18 per pound, or $11,419.93 per ton, driven by supply disruptions in Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [4] Group 2: Copper Import Data - China's copper imports for September 2025 were 485,000 tons, marking a month-on-month increase and the highest monthly figure of the year, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1% [4] - Cumulative copper imports from January to September 2025 totaled 4,019,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [4] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month zinc prices increased by $19.5, or 0.65%, closing at $3,021 per ton, with zinc inventories in LME warehouses dropping to 37,475 tons, a 70% decline since July [4] - LME three-month lead prices fell by $31.5, or 1.56%, closing at $1,989 per ton [6] Group 4: Supply Outlook for Zinc and Lead - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a significant oversupply in the global refined zinc market in 2026, with an expected surplus of 271,000 tons [5] - ILZSG also predicts that global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 91,000 tons in 2025, with a slight increase in surplus to 102,000 tons in 2026 [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices stabilized due to a weakening dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East impacting market sentiment [1][3] - On June 18, LME three-month copper closed at $9,655.50 per ton, down $13.50 or 0.14% [2][4] - Copper inventories in LME registered warehouses decreased by 60% since March, reaching a low of 107,350 tons, the lowest level since May 2024 [3] Group 2 - The premium for spot copper over the three-month contract approached $150 per ton, the highest since October 2022, compared to a discount in late April [3] - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined copper production of 2.5175 million tons and consumption of 2.3238 million tons for April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 193,600 tons [3] - For aluminum, global production was 6.0912 million tons with consumption at 5.8649 million tons, leading to a surplus of 226,300 tons [5]