Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The potential end of the US government shutdown and the expectation of liquidity release will support copper prices, while the continuous decline of domestic social inventories will also underpin copper prices [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices fluctuated strongly. The expected release of liquidity from the unfreezing of the US TGA account drove an overnight rebound in risk assets. The main contract of Shanghai copper jumped to a maximum of 87,050 during the day, but the increase narrowed as the A - share market weakened. Spot copper rose 230 to 86,765, and the spot premium remained flat. The slowdown in downstream orders due to rising copper prices was offset by the decline in domestic social inventories, making it difficult for the spot premium to fall. The loss of spot imports widened to over 700, the LME 0 - 3 contango narrowed to 14.85, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased, limiting the supply of imported goods. It is expected that domestic social inventories will continue to decline in the short term [11]. 3.2 Industry News - Japanese companies JX Advanced Metals, its partners, and Mitsubishi Materials plan to integrate Mitsubishi's copper concentrate procurement and copper product sales business into Pan Pacific Copper (PPC). The proposed integration aims to build a new framework for improving profitability by integrating copper concentrate procurement, reducing costs, and streamlining sales operations [12]. - Citi continues to expect copper prices to climb to an average of $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 (up to $14,000 per ton in a bullish scenario), and expects copper prices to fluctuate around $11,000 per ton for the rest of this year [12].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Copper prices are expected to oscillate upwards as they return to the logic of improved macro - atmosphere, strong medium - term fundamentals, and short - term high prices suppressing spot demand [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices rose, the US dollar index declined, and risk assets rose across the board. Shanghai copper reached 86,000, with total positions decreasing by 299 lots. Spot copper rose 660 to 85,995, and the premium rose to 30 [10] - Due to the rising copper prices, downstream buyers showed obvious fear of high prices. The social inventory in China increased by 0.32 tons this week compared with Monday, indicating weak short - term demand [10] - The LME0 - 3 contango widened to 38, the spot import loss was nearly 500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of Yangshan copper was limited [10] Group 5: Industry News - There are rumors that Glencore plans to shut down the Horne smelter and CCR refinery in Canada. The two facilities have a combined annual output of over 300,000 tons of copper, accounting for about 17% of US imports. If the shutdown plan is implemented, it will exacerbate the global supply shortage [11] - Kenadyr Metals Corp. announced that its Adelita copper - gold - silver project has obtained all social, environmental, and exploration permits and a 20 - year mining license. The first - phase exploration plan will start in November [11] - On November 5, Zambia reopened its border with Tanzania, resuming the flow of goods on an important trade corridor. The average number of trucks cleared in each direction per day is 250 [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment for copper is strong, and copper prices may experience high - level fluctuations. Mid - term macro expectations and spot demand are in conflict, with high uncertainty. [4] 3) Summary by Related Aspects Market Environment - After the Fed's hawkish speech, the market continued to lower the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, the market's optimistic sentiment declined, and the US dollar rose to a new high since August on Friday. The non - ferrous metals showed a strong trend. [3] - China's October manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, and China issued a large number of opening - up policies, which improved market sentiment. [3] - The US dollar rose slightly, the RMB soared, and the sharp rise in crude oil and energy drove the non - ferrous metals to rise in the afternoon. [3] Copper Market Performance - Shanghai copper and LME copper rose, while domestic spot copper fell. Today, Shanghai copper closed at 87,300, and the spot price was 87,020. The spot was at a discount of - 280 points to the futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 5 points, and spot trading was poor. [3] - The LME spot discount narrowed to - 14 US dollars this week, and the external spot demand was average. [3] - US copper inventories continued to rise significantly this week, LME copper inventories decreased, and Shanghai copper inventories increased, with general spot demand. [3] - The RMB exchange rate fell sharply this week, the Yangshan copper premium dropped to 34 US dollars, and domestic spot demand was poor. [3] - The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices dropped to 7.97, the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 535 points, and the external price ratio was higher than the domestic one. [3] Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Technically, LME copper rose slightly and traded around 10,900 US dollars. Shanghai copper rose slightly and closed at 87,300, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious. [4] - Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's rate - cut cycle continues, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose, which is a medium - term positive for copper prices. [4] - In terms of supply and demand, the output of mines in Indonesia and other places has decreased, but the short - term spot demand remains weak, inventories are high, and there may be some pressure on the spot end in the future. [4] Future Concerns - Future concerns include when the US government shutdown will end, whether the Fed's rate - cut cycle can continue, and when the current weak spot demand at home and abroad will improve. [4] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (US dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract LME - Shanghai Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oct 28 | 7.0962 | 1220 | 34.5 | - 24 | 8.03 | | Oct 29 | 7.0968 | - 950 | 34.5 | - 20 | 7.95 | | Oct 30 | 7.1106 | 140 | 35.5 | - 20 | 8.00 | | Oct 31 | 7.1225 | 600 | 35.5 | - 21 | 8.01 | | Nov 3 | 7.1173 | - 280 | 34 | - 14 | 7.97 | [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current copper price is at a high level in the past year, and the market is cautious due to the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting. After the expected 25BP interest rate cut is implemented, copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Although the downstream's ability to absorb the current copper price is average, there is still restocking demand before the double festivals, which provides support for the demand side [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai copper price rose first and then fell. The main contract reached a maximum of 81,530. The spot copper price increased by 180 to 81,120, and the spot premium decreased by 5 to 75. The loss of spot imports widened to 230. The LME0 - 3 contango remained around 62, and the premiums of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading both decreased slightly [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Anglo American and Codelco plan to jointly mine adjacent copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, it will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, starting in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation, and a minimum increase in capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase of at least $5 billion, shared equally by both parties [11]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney told Anglo American that if it wants to merge with Teck Resources, it needs to move its headquarters to Canada [11]. - Chile's state - owned mining agency ENAMI's $1.7 billion smelter modernization project has attracted 15 institutions to express investment intentions. The Hernan Videla - Lira smelter in the Atacama region is being renovated, which will enable it to process 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually. The deadline for initial bids is the end of October [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. The demand side is currently in the expectation of the peak season, and the downstream purchasing situation has improved. Therefore, copper prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - From September 14th to 15th, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain. As of September 12th, China's spot TC was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and RC was -4.16 cents per pound, remaining weakly stable. Factory seasonal maintenance plans in September and October will lead to production reduction, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper remains tight. In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% month - on - month decrease and a 15.59% year - on - year increase. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and smelters have maintenance plans in September, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has slightly increased, imports have risen, and high prices have curbed copper demand, starting a inventory - building trend [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, with a strong and volatile trend, closing at 80,880 yuan per ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan per ton, and in South China was 40 yuan per ton. On September 15, 2025, the LME official price was 10,073 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 87 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of September 12th, the latest data showed that the spot TC was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.16 cents per pound. In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory was 33,700 tons, an increase of 3,049 tons from the previous period. As of September 15th, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 311,800 short tons, an increase of 1,360 short tons from the previous period [7][11].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Core View - With fundamental support, copper prices should mainly be bought on dips [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper fluctuated downward, with total positions decreasing and the near - month spread turning to back. The sentiment became more cautious. A - share continuous decline and the upcoming US non - farm payroll data pressured copper prices [10] - Spot copper dropped 330 to 80190, and the premium fell 10 to 180. Imported copper arrivals suppressed the premium. Social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons this week, mainly due to a 1.02 - million - ton increase in Shanghai caused by large - scale imported arrivals [10] - As the LME 0 - 3 contango structure narrowed, spot imports turned to a small loss of 50 yuan/ton, but the premiums for warehouse receipts and bills of lading continued to rise to 57 and 60 US dollars/ton respectively, indicating strong demand for imported copper [10] - LME inventory decreased by 200 tons, showing an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in overseas inventory. The expected centralized production cuts by smelters in September have not been reflected in domestic social inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory destocking progress [10] 3.2 Industry News - Freeport - McMoRan is advancing three expansion projects (two in the US and one in Chile) and researching a technological innovation to boost annual production. It plans to invest $3.5 billion to expand a copper mine in Arizona, aiming to double the concentrator's capacity and increase copper and molybdenum production. The project is expected to make an investment decision by the end of 2025 and start production in 2029. It may also increase the capacity of the Lone Star copper mine in Arizona and the El Abra mine in Chile [11] - In September, China's refined copper market saw a rare supply contraction. Multiple research institutions predicted a 4% - 5% month - on - month decline in China's refined copper production this month, the first decline in September since 2016. The new tax policy reduced scrap copper processing profits, weakening the incentive to smelt scrap copper into anode copper. Additionally, smelters entered the peak equipment maintenance period in September, with the number of shut - down smelters increasing from three to five. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to drop by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9%, magnifying the supply contraction effect. This production cut coincides with the peak copper consumption season [11][12]

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core View - The Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly downwards, with the main contract closing at 78,950. The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday evening. The spot copper price rose 100 to 79,280, and the spot premium rose 45 to 225. The domestic supply is still tight, making the spot premium of Shanghai copper firm. The import profit of spot copper expanded to 330. It is expected that the import supply will increase in the future. On Monday, the social inventory increased by 0.81 million tons compared with last Thursday. The demand is also rising as the off - peak and peak seasons change, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation space this week is limited. The LME inventory decreased by 200 tons on Monday. The low - inventory pattern in the domestic and foreign markets continues to support the copper price. Reiterate the support level of 78,000 for Shanghai copper, and the upper pressure level is 80,000 due to the lack of obvious bullish factors in the short term [10]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly downwards, and the main contract closed at 78,950. The impact of the Trump - Putin talks on market sentiment was limited. The spot copper price rose 100 to 79,280, and the spot premium rose 45 to 225. The domestic supply shortage made the spot premium firm, and the import profit of spot copper expanded to 330. The LME0 - 3C structure expanded to 92. It is expected that the import supply will increase. The social inventory increased by 0.81 million tons on Monday compared with last Thursday, with both imported and domestic supplies increasing. The demand is rising as the off - peak and peak seasons change, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation space this week is limited. The LME inventory decreased by 200 tons on Monday. The low - inventory pattern in both domestic and foreign markets supports the copper price. The support level for Shanghai copper is 78,000, and the upper pressure level is 80,000 [10]. 2. Industry News - On August 17, Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced that its operating income in the first half of 2025 was 76.079 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.441 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.94% [11]. - Due to the approaching Tianjin SCO Summit, the transportation vehicles in the surrounding areas of North China will be strictly controlled, which affects the supply and boosts the spot premium of electrolytic copper in the local area [11]. - In July 2025, China's export volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 190,796 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 934,046 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. In July, China's import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 3.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [11].

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Copper prices rebounded after hitting a low. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract remained unchanged from the previous day. With the extension of the China-US tariff truce and the upcoming US CPI data, the market is in a wait-and-see mood. The spot copper market is strong domestically and weak overseas. Considering the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut, it is recommended to buy on dips [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices rebounded after hitting a low. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 70,920, unchanged from the previous day. The market's optimistic sentiment recovered due to the extension of the China-US tariff truce, but the upcoming US CPI data led to a wait-and-see mood. Spot copper prices remained unchanged, and the premium rose by 50 to 200. LME inventories decreased by 700 tons, and the 0 - 3C structure widened. The import copper spot window is approaching to open. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] 2. Industry News - Far East Co., Ltd. received contract orders worth over 10 million yuan in July 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 42.61% and a month-on-month increase of 8.51%. From January to July, the total contract orders reached 18.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.77% [11] - Codelco's copper production in June increased by 17% year-on-year to 120,200 tons. However, the copper production of BHP's Escondida mine decreased by 33% to 76,400 tons, and the production of the Collahuasi copper mine jointly operated by Anglo American and Glencore decreased by 29% to 34,300 tons [11] - In July, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. The export of new energy vehicles in July was 225,000, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 120% [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected exemption of import tariffs on cathode copper by Trump has led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices, marking a historic single-day decline of 22% [1] Group 1: Market Impact - COMEX copper experienced a dramatic decline, with a 22% drop in a single day, referred to as "Black Thursday" [1] - A large volume of physical copper is reportedly "trapped" in the United States due to the tariff exemption [1] Group 2: Future Implications - There is speculation about whether the excess copper will be redirected to LME warehouses in the near future [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices stabilized due to a weakening dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East impacting market sentiment [1][3] - On June 18, LME three-month copper closed at $9,655.50 per ton, down $13.50 or 0.14% [2][4] - Copper inventories in LME registered warehouses decreased by 60% since March, reaching a low of 107,350 tons, the lowest level since May 2024 [3] Group 2 - The premium for spot copper over the three-month contract approached $150 per ton, the highest since October 2022, compared to a discount in late April [3] - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined copper production of 2.5175 million tons and consumption of 2.3238 million tons for April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 193,600 tons [3] - For aluminum, global production was 6.0912 million tons with consumption at 5.8649 million tons, leading to a surplus of 226,300 tons [5]