行业 铜期货日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜震荡，总持仓和价差结构均小幅变动，现货铜报价跌 270 至 101795，现货贴 水扩大至 235，由于 LME0-3contango 结构收窄以及沪伦比值下降，现货铜进口亏 损扩大，短期国内高库存压力凸显，同时 LME 与 COMEX 也持续累库，内外市场现 货充裕导致进出口窗口关闭。宏观面，英伟达强劲的四季度报营收及未来指引， 打破 AI 投资泡沫担忧，伊朗局势仍未缓解，地缘政治风险抬升铜战略资源地位， 短期宏观与基本面多空交织，预计铜价将震荡 ...

业 货 金 融 恐慌情绪蔓延，铜价弱势运行 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 研 究 院 弘 期 研 究 院 美国联邦政府部分关门，特朗普提名沃尔什为继任美联储主席，市场担忧其曾经表现为鹰派立场，美元大涨。今日 恐慌情绪延续，资本市场全线大跌。A股全线大跌，恒指大跌。亚洲股市全线下跌，韩国股市暴跌触发停牌。有色金属全 线大跌，铜、铝、锡、镍跌停，伦铜大跌，国内现货铜大跌。 弘 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报98580，现货报101150，沪铜跌停，现货较期货升水2570点。今日现货基差贴水-130点， 大跌后现货成交好转。LME现货贴水扩大至-90美元，外盘现货需求不足。本周美铜库存继续上升创新高，伦铜库存上升， 沪铜库存明显上升，现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率大幅下跌，洋山铜溢价大幅上升至39.5美元，大跌后国内现货需求 好转。铜价伦沪比下降至7.71，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅下降至125点，外盘比价小幅高于内盘，市场情绪偏弱。 今日伦铜大跌，在12630美元附近运行。沪铜跌停，收于98580.沪铜成交高位持仓大幅下降 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper increased in volume and rose sharply at the end of the session. The 01 - 02 spread widened to 240. Spot copper rose 1220 to 94690, and the spot discount widened 95 to 310. The spot import loss widened to over 1700, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 7.82, and the LME0 - 3 back structure widened to 13, opening the export window [11]. - Market Outlook: Despite strong US economic growth data, the market's view of the US dollar remains unchanged due to expectations of Fed rate cuts next year. The US dollar index continues to decline, and the macro - positive factors will continue to drive copper prices up [11]. Group 3: Industry News - World Bank Forecast: In the short term, the possibility of a significant correction in metal prices is low. From 2026 to 2027, most base metal prices are expected to strengthen further due to moderate demand growth and a tightening supply pattern. The base metal price index is expected to rise nearly 2% cumulatively. Copper and tin prices are expected to reach new nominal US - dollar - denominated highs, and supply - side pressure in the aluminum, copper, and tin markets will be the core driving force for price increases [11]. - Company News: Jintian Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that its air - conditioner inner - threaded aluminum tube products can meet customer needs and have achieved small - batch supply. Its electromagnetic aluminum flat wire and aluminum automotive 3D bent bars are in the certification and mass - supply stages [11]

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价震荡收十字星，总持仓下降 9850 手，盘面 01-02 价差缩窄至 190，现货铜跌 205 至 93470，现货贴水扩大 20 至 215，现货进口亏损扩大至 1600 以上，进口窗 口关闭，LME0-3back 扩大至 6.58，同时沪伦比值继续下跌，外盘价格表现持续强 于内盘。日内有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The potential end of the US government shutdown and the expectation of liquidity release will support copper prices, while the continuous decline of domestic social inventories will also underpin copper prices [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices fluctuated strongly. The expected release of liquidity from the unfreezing of the US TGA account drove an overnight rebound in risk assets. The main contract of Shanghai copper jumped to a maximum of 87,050 during the day, but the increase narrowed as the A - share market weakened. Spot copper rose 230 to 86,765, and the spot premium remained flat. The slowdown in downstream orders due to rising copper prices was offset by the decline in domestic social inventories, making it difficult for the spot premium to fall. The loss of spot imports widened to over 700, the LME 0 - 3 contango narrowed to 14.85, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased, limiting the supply of imported goods. It is expected that domestic social inventories will continue to decline in the short term [11]. 3.2 Industry News - Japanese companies JX Advanced Metals, its partners, and Mitsubishi Materials plan to integrate Mitsubishi's copper concentrate procurement and copper product sales business into Pan Pacific Copper (PPC). The proposed integration aims to build a new framework for improving profitability by integrating copper concentrate procurement, reducing costs, and streamlining sales operations [12]. - Citi continues to expect copper prices to climb to an average of $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 (up to $14,000 per ton in a bullish scenario), and expects copper prices to fluctuate around $11,000 per ton for the rest of this year [12].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Copper prices are expected to oscillate upwards as they return to the logic of improved macro - atmosphere, strong medium - term fundamentals, and short - term high prices suppressing spot demand [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices rose, the US dollar index declined, and risk assets rose across the board. Shanghai copper reached 86,000, with total positions decreasing by 299 lots. Spot copper rose 660 to 85,995, and the premium rose to 30 [10] - Due to the rising copper prices, downstream buyers showed obvious fear of high prices. The social inventory in China increased by 0.32 tons this week compared with Monday, indicating weak short - term demand [10] - The LME0 - 3 contango widened to 38, the spot import loss was nearly 500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of Yangshan copper was limited [10] Group 5: Industry News - There are rumors that Glencore plans to shut down the Horne smelter and CCR refinery in Canada. The two facilities have a combined annual output of over 300,000 tons of copper, accounting for about 17% of US imports. If the shutdown plan is implemented, it will exacerbate the global supply shortage [11] - Kenadyr Metals Corp. announced that its Adelita copper - gold - silver project has obtained all social, environmental, and exploration permits and a 20 - year mining license. The first - phase exploration plan will start in November [11] - On November 5, Zambia reopened its border with Tanzania, resuming the flow of goods on an important trade corridor. The average number of trucks cleared in each direction per day is 250 [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment for copper is strong, and copper prices may experience high - level fluctuations. Mid - term macro expectations and spot demand are in conflict, with high uncertainty. [4] 3) Summary by Related Aspects Market Environment - After the Fed's hawkish speech, the market continued to lower the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, the market's optimistic sentiment declined, and the US dollar rose to a new high since August on Friday. The non - ferrous metals showed a strong trend. [3] - China's October manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, and China issued a large number of opening - up policies, which improved market sentiment. [3] - The US dollar rose slightly, the RMB soared, and the sharp rise in crude oil and energy drove the non - ferrous metals to rise in the afternoon. [3] Copper Market Performance - Shanghai copper and LME copper rose, while domestic spot copper fell. Today, Shanghai copper closed at 87,300, and the spot price was 87,020. The spot was at a discount of - 280 points to the futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 5 points, and spot trading was poor. [3] - The LME spot discount narrowed to - 14 US dollars this week, and the external spot demand was average. [3] - US copper inventories continued to rise significantly this week, LME copper inventories decreased, and Shanghai copper inventories increased, with general spot demand. [3] - The RMB exchange rate fell sharply this week, the Yangshan copper premium dropped to 34 US dollars, and domestic spot demand was poor. [3] - The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices dropped to 7.97, the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 535 points, and the external price ratio was higher than the domestic one. [3] Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Technically, LME copper rose slightly and traded around 10,900 US dollars. Shanghai copper rose slightly and closed at 87,300, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious. [4] - Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's rate - cut cycle continues, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose, which is a medium - term positive for copper prices. [4] - In terms of supply and demand, the output of mines in Indonesia and other places has decreased, but the short - term spot demand remains weak, inventories are high, and there may be some pressure on the spot end in the future. [4] Future Concerns - Future concerns include when the US government shutdown will end, whether the Fed's rate - cut cycle can continue, and when the current weak spot demand at home and abroad will improve. [4] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (US dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract LME - Shanghai Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oct 28 | 7.0962 | 1220 | 34.5 | - 24 | 8.03 | | Oct 29 | 7.0968 | - 950 | 34.5 | - 20 | 7.95 | | Oct 30 | 7.1106 | 140 | 35.5 | - 20 | 8.00 | | Oct 31 | 7.1225 | 600 | 35.5 | - 21 | 8.01 | | Nov 3 | 7.1173 | - 280 | 34 | - 14 | 7.97 | [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current copper price is at a high level in the past year, and the market is cautious due to the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting. After the expected 25BP interest rate cut is implemented, copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Although the downstream's ability to absorb the current copper price is average, there is still restocking demand before the double festivals, which provides support for the demand side [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai copper price rose first and then fell. The main contract reached a maximum of 81,530. The spot copper price increased by 180 to 81,120, and the spot premium decreased by 5 to 75. The loss of spot imports widened to 230. The LME0 - 3 contango remained around 62, and the premiums of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading both decreased slightly [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Anglo American and Codelco plan to jointly mine adjacent copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, it will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, starting in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation, and a minimum increase in capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase of at least $5 billion, shared equally by both parties [11]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney told Anglo American that if it wants to merge with Teck Resources, it needs to move its headquarters to Canada [11]. - Chile's state - owned mining agency ENAMI's $1.7 billion smelter modernization project has attracted 15 institutions to express investment intentions. The Hernan Videla - Lira smelter in the Atacama region is being renovated, which will enable it to process 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually. The deadline for initial bids is the end of October [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. The demand side is currently in the expectation of the peak season, and the downstream purchasing situation has improved. Therefore, copper prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - From September 14th to 15th, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain. As of September 12th, China's spot TC was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and RC was -4.16 cents per pound, remaining weakly stable. Factory seasonal maintenance plans in September and October will lead to production reduction, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper remains tight. In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% month - on - month decrease and a 15.59% year - on - year increase. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and smelters have maintenance plans in September, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has slightly increased, imports have risen, and high prices have curbed copper demand, starting a inventory - building trend [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, with a strong and volatile trend, closing at 80,880 yuan per ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan per ton, and in South China was 40 yuan per ton. On September 15, 2025, the LME official price was 10,073 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 87 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of September 12th, the latest data showed that the spot TC was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.16 cents per pound. In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory was 33,700 tons, an increase of 3,049 tons from the previous period. As of September 15th, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 311,800 short tons, an increase of 1,360 short tons from the previous period [7][11].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Core View - With fundamental support, copper prices should mainly be bought on dips [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper fluctuated downward, with total positions decreasing and the near - month spread turning to back. The sentiment became more cautious. A - share continuous decline and the upcoming US non - farm payroll data pressured copper prices [10] - Spot copper dropped 330 to 80190, and the premium fell 10 to 180. Imported copper arrivals suppressed the premium. Social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons this week, mainly due to a 1.02 - million - ton increase in Shanghai caused by large - scale imported arrivals [10] - As the LME 0 - 3 contango structure narrowed, spot imports turned to a small loss of 50 yuan/ton, but the premiums for warehouse receipts and bills of lading continued to rise to 57 and 60 US dollars/ton respectively, indicating strong demand for imported copper [10] - LME inventory decreased by 200 tons, showing an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in overseas inventory. The expected centralized production cuts by smelters in September have not been reflected in domestic social inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory destocking progress [10] 3.2 Industry News - Freeport - McMoRan is advancing three expansion projects (two in the US and one in Chile) and researching a technological innovation to boost annual production. It plans to invest $3.5 billion to expand a copper mine in Arizona, aiming to double the concentrator's capacity and increase copper and molybdenum production. The project is expected to make an investment decision by the end of 2025 and start production in 2029. It may also increase the capacity of the Lone Star copper mine in Arizona and the El Abra mine in Chile [11] - In September, China's refined copper market saw a rare supply contraction. Multiple research institutions predicted a 4% - 5% month - on - month decline in China's refined copper production this month, the first decline in September since 2016. The new tax policy reduced scrap copper processing profits, weakening the incentive to smelt scrap copper into anode copper. Additionally, smelters entered the peak equipment maintenance period in September, with the number of shut - down smelters increasing from three to five. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to drop by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9%, magnifying the supply contraction effect. This production cut coincides with the peak copper consumption season [11][12]