Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core View - The Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly downwards, with the main contract closing at 78,950. The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday evening. The spot copper price rose 100 to 79,280, and the spot premium rose 45 to 225. The domestic supply is still tight, making the spot premium of Shanghai copper firm. The import profit of spot copper expanded to 330. It is expected that the import supply will increase in the future. On Monday, the social inventory increased by 0.81 million tons compared with last Thursday. The demand is also rising as the off - peak and peak seasons change, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation space this week is limited. The LME inventory decreased by 200 tons on Monday. The low - inventory pattern in the domestic and foreign markets continues to support the copper price. Reiterate the support level of 78,000 for Shanghai copper, and the upper pressure level is 80,000 due to the lack of obvious bullish factors in the short term [10]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly downwards, and the main contract closed at 78,950. The impact of the Trump - Putin talks on market sentiment was limited. The spot copper price rose 100 to 79,280, and the spot premium rose 45 to 225. The domestic supply shortage made the spot premium firm, and the import profit of spot copper expanded to 330. The LME0 - 3C structure expanded to 92. It is expected that the import supply will increase. The social inventory increased by 0.81 million tons on Monday compared with last Thursday, with both imported and domestic supplies increasing. The demand is rising as the off - peak and peak seasons change, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation space this week is limited. The LME inventory decreased by 200 tons on Monday. The low - inventory pattern in both domestic and foreign markets supports the copper price. The support level for Shanghai copper is 78,000, and the upper pressure level is 80,000 [10]. 2. Industry News - On August 17, Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced that its operating income in the first half of 2025 was 76.079 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.441 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.94% [11]. - Due to the approaching Tianjin SCO Summit, the transportation vehicles in the surrounding areas of North China will be strictly controlled, which affects the supply and boosts the spot premium of electrolytic copper in the local area [11]. - In July 2025, China's export volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 190,796 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 934,046 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. In July, China's import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 3.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [11].

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价探底回升，沪铜主力收盘报 70920，收盘价与昨日持平，白宫官员称特朗普 已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延 90 天，市场乐观情绪有所回升，不过周二晚 间美 CPI 数据即将公布，市场观望情绪占主导，铜价震荡。现货铜持平，升水涨 50 至 200，交割临近，现货可流通货源紧张且 C 结构下贸易商不愿低价出货，铜 升水居高不下。LME 库存 ...

现货铜较三个月期铜合约的溢价接近每吨150美元，为2022年10月以来最高，而4月底时为折价。 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年4月，全球精炼铜产量为251.75万吨，消费量 为232.38万吨，供应过剩19.36万吨。 6月18日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜企稳，因美元在美联储就美国利率做出决定前走软， 而中东冲突升级及其对经济增长和需求的影响主导了市场情绪。 伦敦时间6月18日17:00(北京时间6月19日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌13.5美元或0.14%，收报每吨 9,655.5美元。 | | | 6月18日LE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金属 | 收盘价 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9655.50 | → | -13.50 1 | -0.14% | | 三个月期铝 | 2547.00 | T | -3.50 | -0.14% | | 三个月期锌 | 2636.50 | - | -2.00 | -0.08% | | 三个月期铅 | 1993.00 | 1 | ...

第一部分：5月行情回顾 黄金：5月随着关税战的缓和，以及地缘政治风险降温，黄金延续4月底以来的调整走势，表现为宽幅震荡下行，5月中最低触及3120美元的位置，结束了1月 以来的连续创新高走势。另外，美联储5月的议息会议显示维持利率不变，强化了市场对"长期维持利率不变"的预期，叠加美国非农就业表现出强劲的韧 性，美联储表示需要等到更加明朗的经济前景再采取行动。总体来看，黄金牛市还未结束，美国国债上限以及未来美联储可能启动降息的操作，黄金有望进 一步大涨。 数据来源：wind 原油：原油从5月初自55.78美元震荡上行，上涨至64美元一线遇阻震荡。油价从4月初大幅跌破63.84美元（两年多的震荡区域低点），创下四年以来的新 低，延续2022年年中以来的下跌走势，后续或将进一步下跌。3月的OPEC+大会上，宣布从4月开始增产13.8万桶/日，4月OPEC+大会宣布从5月开始进一步 增产至41.1万桶/日，表明OPEC+加速增产，原油供应过剩的担忧加剧。4月份的美国关税政策，使得全球经济下行压力增大，原油需求前景堪忧。 数据来源：wind 第二部分：核心观点 美元：整个5月，美元指数主要维持震荡，前半个月震荡上行，最 ...

COMEX期铜周一曾触及4.9495美元的4月29日以来最高，美国总统特朗普将把钢铁和铝的进口关税从目 前的25%提高至50%，投资者对此感到担忧，这意味着美国对铜征收新的关税的可能性变大，具体取决 于华盛顿正在进行的调查。 此前国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。5月份，中国制造 业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%，比上月下降0.1个 百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.4%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，中国经济总体产出保持扩张。 6月3日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜收升，美国关税政策的不确定性令美国期铜较伦敦指 标期铜的升水保持在高位。 伦敦时间6月3日17:00(北京时间6月4日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收高17.50美元或0.18%，收报每吨9,634 美元。 | | | 6月3日LEE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 令屋 | 收盘价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9634.00 | | ↑ +17.50 ↑ +0.18% | | ...

【冠通研究】 经济不确定性预期，盘面区间震荡 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 9 日 【策略分析】 沪铜开盘低开高走日内收跌，基本面来看，供给端，5 月国内有多家冶炼厂有检修 计划，预计电解铜影响量在 2.1 万吨；7-9 月仍有集中检修计划 4 月中国未锻造铜及铜 材进口量达 43.8 万吨，单月数据同比持平。TC/RC 费用延续负值并且负值不断扩大，硫 酸价格高位运行，弥补了冶炼厂部分亏损，但是冶炼厂库存趋紧。需求端，假期后需求 恢复缓慢，下游开工率上行，4 月线缆企业开工率达 86.3%，环比+3.2%，5 月订单预计 环比增长 8-10%，现货铜价格表现强劲，库存大幅去化背景下，市场表示对需求的强预 期。4 月份，中国制造业 PMI 为 49.0%，比上月下降 1.5 个百分点，为今年以来这一指数 首次回落。4 月财新中国通用服务业经营活动指数（服务业 PMI）录得 50.7，低于 3 月 1.2 个百分点，在扩张区间降至七个月来最低。综合来看，国际市场不确定性高，美联 储按兵不动，市场对经济悲观预期仍存，基本面供需双弱，下游需求持续性存疑，但国 内库存整体偏低，市场近期交易宏观信息为主，国内刺激政策 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened higher, moved lower, and then oscillated upward. The market is currently in a multi - short game, and the copper price is restricted by the macro direction. As the subsequent macro sentiment is gradually digested, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals, and the price will remain in the oscillation range in the short term [1]. - The supply side has a maintenance plan in the second quarter. Although domestic refined copper production is at a high level and imports are increasing, the market still has an expectation of tight supply. The demand side shows relatively strong downstream demand during the peak season, and the decline in copper inventory provides support for the market [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - In terms of international news, it is expected that Trump will take measures to mitigate the impact of automobile tariffs. Domestically, policies will be mainly implemented in the second quarter to deal with the impact of US tariffs [1]. - On the supply side, TC/RC fees are negative and expanding. The high sulfuric acid price makes up for some losses of smelters, but there are still maintenance plans. In March, the domestic refined copper production was 1248000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, and the imported refined copper was 354300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The growth rate of imports slowed down this month [1]. - On the demand side, after the price increase, the pre - May Day stocking was scattered. The downstream demand was relatively strong during the peak season, and the downstream operating rate was high. In the first two months of 2025, China's net refined copper imports decreased by 11%, while the global usage outside China increased by about 0.5%. Copper inventory decreased significantly this month [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The intraday Shanghai copper opened higher, moved lower, and closed up. It closed at 77600 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 108371 lots, an increase of 1852 lots; the short positions were 104599 lots, an increase of 2200 lots [4]. - Spot: On April 29, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 245 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 9369 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 3.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of April 18, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 33.65 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.37 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 34000 tons, a decrease of 28000 tons from the previous period. As of April 28, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95800 tons, a decrease of 15400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 202500 tons, a slight decrease of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 135100 short tons, an increase of 3168 short tons from the previous period [11].