11月25日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜攀升至一周多以来的最高水平，受库存持续外流至 美国支撑。 在技术面上，LME指标期铜突破了21日移动均线的阻力，目前该均线在每吨10,828美元处形成支撑。 这种广泛用于电力和建筑行业的金属在不到一个月前曾创下每吨11,200美元的历史新高，原因是市场担 忧印尼格拉斯伯格（Grasberg）矿今年和明年的铜供应趋紧。 在LME其他金属方面，三个月铅下跌3.5美元，或0.18%，收报每吨1,980.5美元，盘中触及1,979美元， 为10月20日以来最低。 | | 11月25日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 楽器 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,818.00 ↑ | +45.00 ↑ +0.42% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,800.50 | -11.50 J -0.41% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,993.00 ↓ | -7.00 -0.23% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,980.50 | -3.50 -0.18% | | 三个月期镍 | 14,872.00 ↑ | +173 ...

Hansen称："在铜市，我们看到回调时的低位逐渐抬高，这表明有买家在等待入场，他们并不打算等到 跌幅更大时才行动。" 美国股市周三上涨，从最近的大跌中收复一些失地，投资者在备受瞩目的Nvidia季度财报发布前调整仓 位。 铜价仍受助于全球矿场运营干扰引发的供应担忧。 美国自由港麦克默伦铜金矿公司周二表示，计划在2026年7月前恢复印尼格拉斯伯格矿的生产，与此前 预期一致。该矿在9月发生泥石流，导致停产。 LME三个月期铅表现不佳，下跌8.5美元，或0.42%，收报每吨2,015.0美元，盘中稍早触及两周来最低水 平。 11月19日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜回升，一些投资者认为近期价格回落是一个很好的 买入点，与此同时，股市企稳，且铜市仍担忧供应。 伦敦时间11月19日17:00(北京时间11月20日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨33美元，或0.31%，收报每吨 10,752.5美元。 | | 11月19日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 10,752.50 ↑ +33.00 ...

11月17日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜连续第二个交易日下跌，受累于美元略微走强、美 联储再次降息的希望减弱以及一系列宏观担忧。 LME现货铜较三个月期铜每吨贴水29美元，表明短期需求并不迫切。 不过，现货锌较三个月期锌每吨升水100美元，凸显出供应吃紧，LME锌库存不足4万吨。 伦敦时间11月17日17:00(北京时间11月18日01:00)LME三个月期铜下跌73.5美元，或0.68%，收报每吨 10,778.5美元。 LME三个月期铝下跌45美元，或1.57%，收报每吨2,813.5美元，此前触及10月23日以来最低。一位交易 商称："铝价一直在大幅上涨，现在人们可能认为这是做空的好价格。"期铝11月3日触及2,920美元的 2022年5月以来高位。 | | 11月17日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张肤幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 10,778.50 - - 73.50 -0.68% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.813.50 | -45.00 ↓ -1.57% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,994.00 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a 17-month high due to signs of easing global trade tensions and strong economic growth expectations, with three-month copper rising by $66.5 to $11,029.0 per ton [1] - The three-month aluminum price increased by $15.5 to $2,874.5 per ton, while zinc rose by $29.5 to $3,055.0 per ton, indicating a positive trend in base metal prices [2][7] - A recent survey of 30 industry analysts projected an increase in average copper prices, estimating 2025 LME spot copper at $9,752 per ton, up from previous estimates [6] Group 2 - The Chinese economy showed signs of strengthening, with September industrial profit growth being the fastest in nearly two years, which may enhance demand for industrial metals [4] - The weakening of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for Chinese buyers, although the copper premium in China has decreased, indicating a slower purchasing pace [5] - Zinc inventories in LME registered warehouses have dropped to 37,050 tons, the lowest level since March 2023, reflecting supply concerns [8]

Group 1 - LME copper futures rose by $108, closing at $10,962 per ton [1] - LME aluminum futures fell by $4, closing at $2,859 per ton [1] - LME zinc futures increased by $8, closing at $3,026 per ton [1] - LME lead futures gained $6, closing at $2,016 per ton [1] - LME nickel futures decreased by $2, closing at $15,361 per ton [1] - LME tin futures rose by $30, closing at $35,802 per ton [1] - LME cobalt futures remained unchanged, closing at $48,570 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices rose due to a weaker dollar and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 15, LME three-month copper increased by $63, or 0.6%, closing at $10,641 per ton [1] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $8.50 (0.31%), zinc up by $6.50 (0.22%), lead up by $0.50 (0.03%), tin up by $204 (0.58%), and nickel up by $59 (0.39%) [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns over reduced copper supply from Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Chile have contributed to a recent price surge, with copper reaching a 16-month high of $11,000 on October 9 [4] - Morgan Stanley's commodity strategist indicated that further changes in the market could lead to tighter conditions by the end of the year [4] - Fitch Solutions raised its 2025 average copper price forecast to $9,650 per ton, up from a previous estimate of $9,500, citing ongoing supply disruptions and strong industrial demand [4] Group 3: Market Premiums and Inventory - The premium of LME spot copper contracts over three-month contracts has been declining, with a recent peak of $227, the highest since June [4] - The premium for LME spot zinc contracts decreased from $202 to $150 per ton, indicating tight inventory levels, which are at their lowest since the beginning of 2023 [4]

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices declined due to concerns over demand outlook, with three-month copper dropping by $242, or 2.24%, to $10,578 per ton on October 14 [1][2]. Price Movements - Three-month copper: $10,578.00, down $242.00, or -2.24% [2] - Three-month aluminum: $2,737.50, down $25.50, or -0.92% [2] - Three-month zinc: $2,941.50, down $79.50, or -2.63% [2] - Three-month lead: $1,982.00, down $7.00, or -0.35% [2] - Three-month nickel: $15,135.00, down $71.00, or -0.47% [2] - Three-month tin: $35,189.00, down $537.00, or -1.50% [2] Market Analysis - Copper prices have fallen nearly 4% since October 9, when they reached a 16-month high of $11,000 due to supply concerns from Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Chile [4]. - Dan Smith, Managing Director of Commodity Market Analytics, noted that despite supply challenges, copper demand remains weak [4]. - The recent support level for copper is at the 21-day moving average, currently at $10,378 per ton [4]. Spot and Futures Contracts - The spot copper contract is currently at a premium of $39 per ton over the three-month contract, having peaked at $227 per ton, the highest since June [5]. - Zinc's premium decreased from $202 per ton to $115 per ton, with LME zinc inventories at their lowest since the beginning of 2023, raising supply concerns [5]. Additional Price Trends - LME three-month zinc reached its lowest price since September 30 [6][7]. - LME three-month lead and nickel also hit their lowest prices since early September [6][8][9].

Group 1: Market Overview - LME copper prices rose by $302, or 2.87%, closing at $10,820 per ton due to easing trade concerns and improved copper import data from China [1] - COMEX copper reached an intraday high of $5.18 per pound, or $11,419.93 per ton, driven by supply disruptions in Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [4] Group 2: Copper Import Data - China's copper imports for September 2025 were 485,000 tons, marking a month-on-month increase and the highest monthly figure of the year, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1% [4] - Cumulative copper imports from January to September 2025 totaled 4,019,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [4] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month zinc prices increased by $19.5, or 0.65%, closing at $3,021 per ton, with zinc inventories in LME warehouses dropping to 37,475 tons, a 70% decline since July [4] - LME three-month lead prices fell by $31.5, or 1.56%, closing at $1,989 per ton [6] Group 4: Supply Outlook for Zinc and Lead - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a significant oversupply in the global refined zinc market in 2026, with an expected surplus of 271,000 tons [5] - ILZSG also predicts that global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 91,000 tons in 2025, with a slight increase in surplus to 102,000 tons in 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices experienced a decline after reaching a 16-month high, primarily due to profit-taking triggered by a stronger US dollar, overshadowing supply concerns from Chile and Indonesia [1][4]. Price Movements - LME three-month copper fell by $61, or 0.57%, closing at $10,654.50 per ton after hitting a peak of $10,800, marking a nearly 25% increase since early April [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed results: - Three-month aluminum rose by $15.50, or 0.57%, to $2,725.00 [2][6]. - Three-month zinc decreased by $27.50, or 0.91%, to $3,007.00 [2][7]. - Three-month lead dropped by $15.50, or 0.77%, to $2,004.50 [2][8]. - Three-month nickel increased by $49, or 0.32%, to $15,482.00 [2][9]. - Three-month tin fell by $657, or 1.75%, to $36,798.00 [2][10]. Market Influences - The recent rise in copper prices was partly attributed to the absence of the Chinese market during the Golden Week holiday, leading to increased selling by Chinese investors [4]. - A stronger US dollar, which rose by 0.4% to 98.11, made dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies, prompting traders to close long positions [4]. - The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the September employment report, which may impact market sentiment [5]. Supply Concerns - Supply disruptions are expected to persist due to operational halts at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia following a landslide, along with other interruptions at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile [5].

Core Insights - LME copper prices reached a 16-month high on October 3, driven by supply tightness and a weakening dollar [1][4] - The three-month copper price increased by $225, or 2.14%, closing at $10,715.5 per ton, marking a weekly gain of 5.2%, the strongest since September 2024 [1][5] Price Movements - Three-month copper: $10,715.50, up $225.00 (+2.14%) [2] - Three-month aluminum: $2,709.50, up $17.00 (+0.63%) [2] - Three-month zinc: $3,034.50, up $14.00 (+0.46%) [2] - Three-month lead: $2,020.00, down $4.00 (-0.20%) [2] - Three-month nickel: $15,433.00, up $116.00 (+0.76%) [2] - Three-month tin: $37,455.00, up $567.00 (+1.54%) [2] Supply Dynamics - LME copper inventory dropped to 140,475 tons, the lowest level since early August [5] - Supply risks and potential delays in restoring supply have been highlighted as key market drivers [4]