10月6日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜在盘中触及16个月高点后下滑，因美元走强引发的获 利了结超过了对智利和印尼供应的担忧。 伦敦时间10月6日17:00(北京时间10月7日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌61美元，或0.57%，收报每吨 10,654.5美元。该合约此前曾触及5月份以来的最高点10,800美元。周一的最高点代表着自4月初以来近 25%的涨幅。 | | 10月6日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张肤幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 10,654.50 -61.00 -0.57% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,725.00 ↑ | +15.50 ↑ +0.57% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,007.00 ↓ | -27.50 J -0.91% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,004.50 ↓ | -15.50 -0.77% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,482.00 ↑ | +49.00 ↑ +0.32% | | 三个月期锡 | 36,798.00 -657.00 -1.75% | | 数据来源：文华财经 ...

10月3日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价创下逾16个月新高，并录得一年多来最强劲周线表 现，受助于供应紧张和美元走软。 伦敦时间10月3日17:00(北京时间10月4日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨225美元，或2.14%，收报每吨 10,715.5美元。本周上涨5.2%，创2024年9月以来最佳周度表现。盘中稍早，铜价触及10,765美元的2024 年5月以来最高。 LME三个月期铅下跌4美元，或0.2%，收报每吨2,020.0美元；LME三个月期镍上涨116美元，或0.76%， 收报每吨15,433.0美元。 LME三个月期锡上涨567美元，或1.54%，收报每吨37,455.0美元。盘中一度触及37,695美元的4月2日以 来最高。本周仍上涨8.6%，创2024年4月以来的最佳周度表现。 （文华综合） 盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen称："焦点集中在供应方面--供应风险和恢复供应 的潜在延迟。这帮助推动势头。" 他补充称，自上周自由港格拉斯贝格铜矿遭遇不可抗力后突破约10,160美元的阻力位以来，市场"一直 没有回头"。 LME仓库系统铜库存已降至140,4 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell on September 22, 2023, due to rising inventories and a weak global economy, although Chinese consumers' restocking and a softening dollar limited the decline [1][4] - As of September 22, LME three-month copper closed at $9,972.50 per ton, down $16.50 or 0.17% from the previous session [2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 14%, but has retreated from a 15-month high of $10,192.50 reached last week [4] Group 2 - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 12.5% increase in copper inventories, reaching 105,814 tons, the highest level since early June [4] - LME copper inventories have surged by 56% over the past three months [4] - Factors supporting copper prices include restocking by Chinese consumers ahead of the National Day holiday and a slight weakening of the dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers using other currencies [5][6] Group 3 - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, one of the largest copper mines globally, has been under production suspension since an accident in early September, providing additional support for copper prices [6] - Marex reported that short covering and other factors are driving zinc prices higher [7] - LME zinc inventories have been declining, leading to a rise in spot zinc prices, which reached a premium of $51 per ton over three-month zinc, the highest level since October 2024 [8] Group 4 - The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported that global primary aluminum production in August was 6.277 million tons, with a daily average production of 202,500 tons [9]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $49, or 0.49%, closing at $9,989.0 per ton, driven by signs of improving demand from China ahead of the National Day holiday [1][2] - The copper price has decreased by 2% from a 15-month high of $10,192.50 due to profit-taking after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2] - The Yangshan copper premium, reflecting China's import demand, rose by 1.8% to $57 per ton [2] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts copper prices to range between $9,500 and $10,500 per ton in Q4, with a potential rise to $12,000 by 2026, driven by a projected 2.9% increase in refined copper consumption next year [3] - The global copper market is expected to shift from a surplus of 63,000 tons this year to a shortage of 308,000 tons [3] Group 3 - LME aluminum prices fell by $13, or 0.48%, closing at $2,671.5 per ton, with a recent peak of $2,720 per ton due to a widening premium in the spot market [4] - The average price for aluminum in Q4 is expected to be around $2,650 [4] Group 4 - LME zinc prices decreased by $27.5, or 0.94%, closing at $2,889.0 per ton, with a significant drop in registered warehouse stocks indicating supply tightness [5] - Despite the tightness in registered stocks, the spot market for zinc remains adequately supplied [5] Group 5 - LME lead prices fell by $9.5, or 0.47%, closing at $1,996.5 per ton [6] - LME nickel prices decreased by $1, or 0.01%, closing at $15,271.0 per ton [7] - LME tin prices increased by $461, or 1.37%, closing at $34,172.0 per ton [7]

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined on September 16, 2023, after reaching a 15-month high, with a drop of $60 or 0.59%, closing at $10,126.5 per ton [1] - The previous day, copper prices peaked at $10,192.50 per ton, marking the highest level since June 2024 [1] - Traders noted that the rise in copper prices above the psychological level of $10,000 led to a wait-and-see approach from Chinese buyers [4] Group 2 - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with LME three-month aluminum rising by $16.5 or 0.61% to $2,717.0 per ton, and zinc increasing by $13 or 0.44% to $2,992.0 per ton [5] - LME three-month lead rose by $8 or 0.4% to $2,010.0 per ton, while nickel fell by $8 or 0.05% to $15,428.0 per ton [6][7] - LME three-month tin saw a significant increase of $242 or 0.7%, closing at $34,881.0 per ton [8] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of a rate cut putting pressure on the dollar [4] - A decrease in copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has raised concerns about demand from China [4] - LME approved zinc inventories have decreased by 60% since mid-July, leading to worries about zinc supply in the LME market [4]

Core Insights - LME copper prices surged to a five-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and increased confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On September 11, LME three-month copper rose by $38.5, or 0.38%, closing at $10,051.5 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,062, marking the highest level since March 26 [1][5]. - Nitesh Shah from WisdomTree noted that disruptions in mining production are greater than expected, and capital expenditures for copper mining are insufficient to meet rising metal demand [4]. - The Freeport-McMoRan copper mine in Grasberg, one of the largest globally, has paused operations due to an underground incident [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum increased by $48.5, or 1.85%, closing at $2,673.5 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $13.5, or 0.47%, closing at $2,900.0 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month lead increased by $9.5, or 0.48%, closing at $1,996.5 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $4, or 0.03%, closing at $15,150.0 per ton [2][10]. - LME three-month tin increased by $92, or 0.27%, closing at $34,698.0 per ton [2][11].

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a weekly high of over $10,000 per ton, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - On September 10, LME three-month copper rose by $99, or 1%, closing at $10,013.00 per ton, marking the third test of the $10,000 psychological level this month [1][2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.3%, indicating relatively modest inflationary pressures [4] Group 2 - LME three-month zinc prices increased by $30.5, or 1.07%, closing at $2,886.5 per ton, driven by supply concerns as zinc inventories have decreased by nearly 75% since mid-April [5] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with LME three-month aluminum up by $2.5, or 0.1%, at $2,625.0 per ton, and LME three-month lead rising by $10, or 0.51%, to $1,987.0 per ton [6][7] - LME three-month nickel and tin prices also experienced gains, with nickel up by $41, or 0.27%, at $15,146.0 per ton, and tin rising by $597, or 1.76%, to $34,606.0 per ton [8][9]

Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices have risen for three consecutive days, driven by market speculation regarding Trump's potential actions on Russian energy [3] - Concerns over Russian energy sanctions have led traders to cover short positions, increasing supply worries [3] - The U.S. PPI decline in August has intensified expectations for Fed rate cuts, supporting energy demand [3] - As of the latest report, WTI crude oil rose by 1.7% to $63.67 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also increased by 1.7% to $67.49 per barrel [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased, benefiting from the recent U.S. inflation data, with August PPI showing its first decline in four months [4] - Market expectations now lean towards three rate cuts by the Fed for the remainder of the year [4] - ANZ analysts have raised their year-end gold price forecast by $200 to $3,800 per ounce, citing increased gold holdings in China and India [4] - Palladium prices surged by 4.7% due to supply concerns linked to potential tariffs on Indian imports, as Russia is the largest supplier of palladium [4] - As of the latest report, spot gold rose by 0.5% to $3,644.74 per ounce [4] Group 3: Base Metals - Copper prices have surpassed $10,000 per ton, primarily due to supply risks from Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan Grasberg mine, which has halted operations following an accident [5] - Other base metals also experienced slight increases, with LME aluminum up by 0.1%, nickel by 0.27%, and zinc by 1.07% [5] - The movements in commodity prices are closely linked to geopolitical events and supply chain changes, as well as Fed policy expectations [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices remained stable, supported by a significant drop in the US dollar, following a key employment report suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month [1][4] - The three-month LME copper price closed at $9,897.50 per ton, down $0.50 or 0.01% [2] - The US employment report indicated a slowdown in job growth for August, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [4] Group 2 - The decline in interest rates has improved the outlook for metals reliant on economic growth, with the US dollar index dropping by 0.6%, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to holders of other currencies [4] - The copper premium in China’s Yangshan remained stable at a three-month high of $57 per ton, while JX Advanced Metals indicated potential cuts in copper production due to tight supply, providing additional support for copper prices [7] - LME three-month aluminum and zinc prices increased by $9.00 (0.35%) to $2,600.50 and $17.50 (0.62%) to $2,861.00, respectively [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices fell due to a strong dollar and profit-taking after reaching a five-month high, with market attention on key U.S. employment data and tariff uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: LME Copper Market - On September 4, LME three-month copper dropped by $77.5, or 0.78%, closing at $9,898.0 per ton [1][2]. - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 13% [4]. - The $10,000 level is currently seen as a strong resistance for copper prices, with insufficient fundamentals to break through [4]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy meetings [4]. - In August, U.S. private sector jobs increased by 54,000, below the expected 65,000, indicating a loosening labor market [4]. - The anticipated non-farm payroll report may show an increase of 75,000 jobs in August, compared to 73,000 in July [4]. Group 3: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum fell by $27.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,591.5 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $17.5, or 0.61%, closing at $2,843.5 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month lead dropped by $10, or 0.5%, closing at $1,985.5 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month nickel declined by $68, or 0.44%, closing at $15,236.0 per ton [2][10]. - LME three-month tin fell by $106, or 0.31%, closing at $34,556.0 per ton [2][11]. Group 4: Dollar Impact on Commodities - A stable dollar index makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [5].