Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black - metal industry is in a state of weak supply and demand during the consumption off - season, with significant inventory pressure. For steel products, the cost support has weakened due to the sharp decline in coking coal prices. For iron ore, the decline in steel production suppresses raw material prices, and the rising port inventory also exerts pressure on futures prices [2][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For both steel products (thread and hot - rolled coil) and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly. For steel products, short - selling is not recommended at the current position. For iron ore, a mid - term trading approach with an oscillatory mindset should be adopted, avoiding chasing highs or selling lows [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of thread and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coil was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the de - stocking pressure of thread was relatively small. The apparent demand declined overall, and the market was in a state of weak supply and demand. As the steel mill's gross profit dropped significantly and the consumption peak has passed, the steel production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2]. - **Cost**: The sharp decline in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of thread steel and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. The spot prices of some products remained unchanged or decreased slightly [3]. - **Production**: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased week - on - week. The production of electric - arc furnace steel mills' thread steel increased significantly [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products and thread decreased, while the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The steel mill inventory of five major steel products and hot - rolled coil increased, while the steel mill inventory of thread decreased [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products, thread, and hot - rolled coil decreased week - on - week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The production and apparent demand of five major steel products decreased last week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel mill's production reduction suppresses the raw material prices. The pre - holiday replenishment demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. The prices of various iron ore powder products in different ports also changed [5]. - **Shipments**: The Australian iron ore shipments decreased, while the Brazilian iron ore shipments increased significantly [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore increased, while the sintered powder inventory of imported ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased [5]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending December 17, according to Zhaogang.com data, the national building material production increased, the factory inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased [7]. - The government of Amapá state in Brazil plans to restart the iron ore production of the Amapá project, which is expected to attract up to $200 million in investment. Cadence recently raised $6 million on the London Stock Exchange to resume the operation of the Azteca small - scale mine, with an expected annual production of 380,000 - 400,000 tons of iron concentrate [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Segment**: Last week's data showed that the apparent demand for rebar continued to rise, rebar production increased, but the decline rate of total inventory was slow. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was much higher than the same - period level after a significant increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were strong, providing some cost support. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills were expected to cut production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils broke through the upper 10 - day moving average and then pulled back, and currently fell below the lower 10 - day moving average, with support from the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **For the Iron Ore Segment**: The sample steel mills' hot - metal production decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills might continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments declined from the high level, and port inventories increased during the consumption peak season, which put pressure on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampened market sentiment. With the realization of macro - level positives, combined with losses and seasonal decline in terminal demand, futures prices faced correction pressure. Technically, the 01 contract's rebound was blocked, with obvious pressure from the upper Bollinger Band, and the futures price had fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10 - day moving average, with support near the lower Bollinger Band [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.66%) from the previous day and 109 yuan (- 3.48%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous day and 92 yuan (- 2.75%) from last week. Other related prices also showed different degrees of decline [3]. - **Production Data**: The national building materials steel mills' rebar production was 212.59 tons, up 5.52 tons (2.67%) from last week. The hot - rolled coil production was 323.56 tons, up 1.10 tons (0.34%) from last week [3]. - **Inventory Data**: The five - major varieties' social inventory was 1077.08 tons, down 22.62 tons (- 2.06%) from last week. The rebar social inventory was 430.81 tons, down 6.67 tons (- 1.52%) from last week. The hot - rolled coil social inventory was 328.93 tons, down 8.64 tons (- 2.56%) from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, avoid chasing ups and downs, and patiently wait for the price to stabilize before going long on dips for medium - term trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 776 yuan/dry ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and down 28.5 yuan (- 3.54%) from last week. The settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - first contract was 103.52 dollars/dry ton, down 0.08 dollars (- 0.08%) from the previous day and 2.18 dollars (- 2.06%) from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1639.7 tons, down 81.9 tons (- 4.76%) from last week. Brazilian iron ore shipments were 789.1 tons, down 7.5 tons (- 0.94%) from last week. The port inventory was 14542.48 tons, up 118.89 tons (0.82%) from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for the price to stabilize before going long on dips [5]. Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons (11.8%) from the previous ten - day period. The key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a daily output decrease of 9.8% on a ten - day - on - ten - day basis [7]. - According to Mysteel, most of the blast furnaces under maintenance in Tangshan at the end of October resumed production on November 1st. From 18:00 on November 3rd, the city launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, with most implementing a 30% sintering production limit [7].