投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月18日08时13分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落，热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期，螺纹 去库压力相对较小。上周表观需求整体回落，市场处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。 近期煤焦价格大幅下跌，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，且库存压力仍较大。短期来看，钢材出口许可制度的实施以及生 产许可证制度方面的变化对市场影响已经比较充分的反映在价格中 。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约短暂跌破震荡区间后快速反弹 ，目前没有 摆脱近期的震荡区间，也没有形成向下的突破。 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有。当前的位置不建议做空。 操作建议： 多单可以轻仓持有，中线交易。以震荡思路对待，不可追涨杀跌 | 表2：铁矿石相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Segment**: Last week's data showed that the apparent demand for rebar continued to rise, rebar production increased, but the decline rate of total inventory was slow. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was much higher than the same - period level after a significant increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were strong, providing some cost support. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills were expected to cut production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils broke through the upper 10 - day moving average and then pulled back, and currently fell below the lower 10 - day moving average, with support from the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **For the Iron Ore Segment**: The sample steel mills' hot - metal production decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills might continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments declined from the high level, and port inventories increased during the consumption peak season, which put pressure on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampened market sentiment. With the realization of macro - level positives, combined with losses and seasonal decline in terminal demand, futures prices faced correction pressure. Technically, the 01 contract's rebound was blocked, with obvious pressure from the upper Bollinger Band, and the futures price had fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10 - day moving average, with support near the lower Bollinger Band [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.66%) from the previous day and 109 yuan (- 3.48%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous day and 92 yuan (- 2.75%) from last week. Other related prices also showed different degrees of decline [3]. - **Production Data**: The national building materials steel mills' rebar production was 212.59 tons, up 5.52 tons (2.67%) from last week. The hot - rolled coil production was 323.56 tons, up 1.10 tons (0.34%) from last week [3]. - **Inventory Data**: The five - major varieties' social inventory was 1077.08 tons, down 22.62 tons (- 2.06%) from last week. The rebar social inventory was 430.81 tons, down 6.67 tons (- 1.52%) from last week. The hot - rolled coil social inventory was 328.93 tons, down 8.64 tons (- 2.56%) from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, avoid chasing ups and downs, and patiently wait for the price to stabilize before going long on dips for medium - term trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 776 yuan/dry ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and down 28.5 yuan (- 3.54%) from last week. The settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - first contract was 103.52 dollars/dry ton, down 0.08 dollars (- 0.08%) from the previous day and 2.18 dollars (- 2.06%) from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1639.7 tons, down 81.9 tons (- 4.76%) from last week. Brazilian iron ore shipments were 789.1 tons, down 7.5 tons (- 0.94%) from last week. The port inventory was 14542.48 tons, up 118.89 tons (0.82%) from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for the price to stabilize before going long on dips [5]. Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons (11.8%) from the previous ten - day period. The key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a daily output decrease of 9.8% on a ten - day - on - ten - day basis [7]. - According to Mysteel, most of the blast furnaces under maintenance in Tangshan at the end of October resumed production on November 1st. From 18:00 on November 3rd, the city launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, with most implementing a 30% sintering production limit [7].