投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量下降，热卷产量上升，五大品种产量环比上升，整体库存继续回落，但热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期 ，螺纹 去库压力相对较小，热卷库存的压力更大。本周表观需求整体温和回落。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正 常季节性的减产规模，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱迹象 ，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需 双弱，且库存压力仍大，但市场对政策面预期增强。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，期价低位震荡上行，创近一个月高点，有可能形成向上的突破， 需密切关注 05 合约的走势。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待充分调整后做多。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3134 | 24 | 0.77% | 45 | 1.46% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Last week, rebar's apparent demand and production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. Due to a sharp decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coal - coke and iron ore prices have weakened, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a short - term rapid rise but faced resistance from the 60 - day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The mid - term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the sample steel mills' hot metal production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to decline seasonally, and steel mills' production cuts will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventory is rising, suppressing the futures price. The slow inventory reduction of steel products also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 - contract price broke through the middle Bollinger Band but faced resistance from the dense trading area, remaining in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures price decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to last week. The hot - rolled coil futures price also decreased slightly from the previous day but increased from last week. Some spot prices increased, while others decreased [3]. - **Production and Profitability**: The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.13%, and the daily average hot metal output was 236.88 million tons. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 38.96%. National rebar and hot - rolled coil production decreased last week, with rebar production dropping by 4.10% and hot - rolled coil production by 1.41% [3]. - **Inventory**: The social and steel - mill inventories of the five major steel products decreased. Rebar social and steel - mill inventories decreased by 2.34% and 3.85% respectively, while hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly by 0.01%, and steel - mill inventory increased by 0.12% [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 0.73% compared to last week, with rebar and hot - rolled coil showing similar downward trends [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before taking long - term positions for mid - term trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices of iron ore increased compared to the previous day and last week. For example, the DCE iron ore主力 contract settlement price increased by 0.44% compared to the previous day and 3.80% compared to last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand is expected to decline as steel mills cut production. Supply - side global shipments are decreasing, and port inventory is rising. The arrival volume is expected to decline in the future [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before taking long - term positions for mid - term trading [5]. Industry News - **Steel Mill Maintenance**: Shanxi Gaoyi plans to shut down a 1380m³ blast furnace for maintenance on November 23, affecting daily hot metal production by about 0.45 million tons and wire rod production by about 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 20.04 million tons compared to last Monday. From November 10 to 16, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 22.7 million tons, reaching the highest level since the fourth quarter [7]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment**: In the second week of November 2025, Brazil shipped 1705.39 million tons of iron ore, with a daily average shipment of 170.54 million tons per day, a 3.23% decrease compared to November last year [7]. - **Glass Deep - Processing Orders**: As of November 17, the average order days of national glass deep - processing sample enterprises decreased by 8.9% compared to the previous period and 24.2% year - on - year [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Segment**: Last week's data showed that the apparent demand for rebar continued to rise, rebar production increased, but the decline rate of total inventory was slow. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was much higher than the same - period level after a significant increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were strong, providing some cost support. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills were expected to cut production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils broke through the upper 10 - day moving average and then pulled back, and currently fell below the lower 10 - day moving average, with support from the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **For the Iron Ore Segment**: The sample steel mills' hot - metal production decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills might continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments declined from the high level, and port inventories increased during the consumption peak season, which put pressure on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampened market sentiment. With the realization of macro - level positives, combined with losses and seasonal decline in terminal demand, futures prices faced correction pressure. Technically, the 01 contract's rebound was blocked, with obvious pressure from the upper Bollinger Band, and the futures price had fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10 - day moving average, with support near the lower Bollinger Band [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.66%) from the previous day and 109 yuan (- 3.48%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous day and 92 yuan (- 2.75%) from last week. Other related prices also showed different degrees of decline [3]. - **Production Data**: The national building materials steel mills' rebar production was 212.59 tons, up 5.52 tons (2.67%) from last week. The hot - rolled coil production was 323.56 tons, up 1.10 tons (0.34%) from last week [3]. - **Inventory Data**: The five - major varieties' social inventory was 1077.08 tons, down 22.62 tons (- 2.06%) from last week. The rebar social inventory was 430.81 tons, down 6.67 tons (- 1.52%) from last week. The hot - rolled coil social inventory was 328.93 tons, down 8.64 tons (- 2.56%) from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, avoid chasing ups and downs, and patiently wait for the price to stabilize before going long on dips for medium - term trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 776 yuan/dry ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and down 28.5 yuan (- 3.54%) from last week. The settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - first contract was 103.52 dollars/dry ton, down 0.08 dollars (- 0.08%) from the previous day and 2.18 dollars (- 2.06%) from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1639.7 tons, down 81.9 tons (- 4.76%) from last week. Brazilian iron ore shipments were 789.1 tons, down 7.5 tons (- 0.94%) from last week. The port inventory was 14542.48 tons, up 118.89 tons (0.82%) from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for the price to stabilize before going long on dips [5]. Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons (11.8%) from the previous ten - day period. The key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a daily output decrease of 9.8% on a ten - day - on - ten - day basis [7]. - According to Mysteel, most of the blast furnaces under maintenance in Tangshan at the end of October resumed production on November 1st. From 18:00 on November 3rd, the city launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, with most implementing a 30% sintering production limit [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, production increased, but the total inventory declined slowly. Hot-rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to cut production, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are likely to turn into a volatile trend [2]. - In the iron ore market, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their peak, and the port inventory increase during the consumption peak has suppressed the futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. After the macro positive factors are realized, the futures prices face correction pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,079 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day and 0.68% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract was 3,295 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day and 0.12% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day and up 0.31% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day and 0.60% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills was 212.59 million tons, up 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production was 323.56 million tons, up 0.34% from last week. The total social inventory of five major steel products was 1,077.08 million tons, down 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory was 430.81 million tons, down 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 328.93 million tons, down 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was 916.4 million tons, up 2.65% from last week; the apparent demand for rebar was 232.18 million tons, up 2.73% from last week; the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 331.89 million tons, up 1.58% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a correction [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 782.5 yuan/dry ton, down 2.19% from the previous day and 0.51% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.51% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Global iron ore shipments declined from the peak, and the port inventory increased during the consumption peak. Steel mills may continue to cut production, suppressing iron ore prices [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to correct before buying on dips [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 33.141 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 12.298 billion tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 32.184 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 11.893 billion tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.859 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.9 billion tons [7]. - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.138 billion tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.745 billion tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.592 billion tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.667 billion tons [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of October, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.05 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 310,000 tons, a decrease of 3.3%. The inventory continued to decline slightly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pressure of simultaneous weakening of supply and demand persists, but the futures price is still expected to bottom out and rebound in the medium term [1] - In the third quarter, rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell, basically erasing the gains from the "anti - involution" speculation. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to decline, demand will seasonally weaken, and inventory is expected to continue to fall, but at a relatively slow pace [8] - From October to November, the market is dominated by weak reality, and prices tend to fluctuate and decline. Starting from December, the market is dominated by strong expectations, and the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [8] - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and switch to going long on dips in the medium - term if a clear bottom pattern appears. For arbitrage, consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views - **Market Trend in Q3**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell. In early July, due to the "anti - involution" policy, industrial products rose significantly, but later, affected by high prices and demand concerns, prices declined from August to September [8][9] - **Supply**: Marginal profit is close to the break - even point, so steel mills have strong motivation to reduce production. In November, environmental protection restrictions may increase, and the "anti - involution" policy may be phased out, leading to a decline in supply. However, a decrease in production may cause a decline in iron ore and coke prices, resulting in a "negative feedback" cycle [8] - **Demand**: Downstream demand will seasonally weaken in the fourth quarter, reaching a low point during the Spring Festival next year. Before December, the market anticipates the weak demand in the off - season, pressuring the futures price. After December, the market is optimistic about the peak - season demand next year, boosting the futures price [8] - **Inventory**: Although the current inventory is relatively high, it is likely to continue to decline in the fourth quarter, but at a slow pace. If inventory rises, the price of rebar and hot - rolled coils will face pressure, forcing steel mills to cut production. The total inventory will seasonally rise before the Spring Festival, but the market will focus on the rising speed [8] - **Market Judgment**: From October to November, the market is affected by weak reality, and prices tend to fall. Starting from December, the market is driven by strong expectations, and the futures price is expected to rebound. The switch in rhythm depends on technical patterns, policies, and supply - demand conditions [8] - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term trading suggests shorting on rallies. In the medium - term, if a clear bottom pattern appears, switch to going long on dips and hold the position until after the Spring Festival next year [8] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8] 3.2 Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils Spot and Futures Market in Q3 - **Price Trend**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell, returning to the level at the beginning of July, erasing the "anti - involution" gains. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased, with the increase in rebar's basis being more significant [8][9][14] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between different contracts, regions, and varieties showed differentiation. The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of rebar decreased, while the spread between the 10 and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coils increased. The spread of the 10 - contract of the coil - to - rebar spread reached a record high, while the 01 and 05 contracts were within a reasonable range [22][25][28] - **Profit Analysis**: The profit of upstream and downstream processing slightly improved, which may be related to the "anti - involution" policy in the third quarter. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level and may rise, while the ratio of rebar to coke has declined and may continue to fall [30][33] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis of Steel in Q4 - **Supply**: Steel production has been gradually decreasing, mainly due to the off - season consumption, the National Day holiday, and the "anti - involution" policy. The production of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills has decreased. The production of iron water remains high, but steel mills are likely to cut production in the future due to falling profits [36][38][47] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils during the National Day holiday reached a record low in recent years. The recovery of steel demand after the holiday is not satisfactory. The real estate market is still under pressure, which drags down the demand for steel. However, steel exports increased in September, mainly driven by the high - speed growth of billet exports [54][55][58] - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products has increased rapidly, especially for hot - rolled coils and cold - rolled coils, which reached record highs in the same period, indicating that the supply of downstream industrial materials exceeds demand. In the fourth quarter, steel mills still face great pressure to reduce inventory, but inventory is likely to decline seasonally [68][73][76] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - **Market Outlook**: The Langer Iron and Steel PMI index indicates pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal patterns suggest that the market is likely to be weak first and then strong in the fourth quarter. In the short - term, the downward trend since August is expected to continue, but in the medium - term, the futures price may bottom out and rebound [79][83][87] - **Investment Strategy**: For short - term trading, short on rallies. For medium - term trading, go long on dips if a clear bottom pattern appears. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8][87]

Group 1 - The article highlights concerns about the U.S. labor market, indicating that employment faces downward risks, which could negatively impact the economic outlook [2] - Despite a surge in investments driven by the AI boom, hiring activities have nearly stalled, threatening the vital interaction between employment and consumer spending, which constitutes over two-thirds of the U.S. economy [2][3] - The trade war has led to the highest level of comprehensive import tariffs since the Great Depression, with U.S. importers paying $350 billion annually in tariffs, which is more than double the estimated scale of recent corporate tax cuts [2] Group 2 - Public spending and contract cuts are resulting in layoffs across federal, state, local governments, and healthcare sectors, with the impact not yet fully reflected in overall unemployment data [3] - The average number of new jobs added over the past three months has dropped significantly, from 168,000 in 2024 to just 29,000, while the unemployment rate has only slightly increased from 4.2% to 4.3% [3] - The education sector is facing a hiring downturn, with estimated job reductions exceeding 200,000 due to over a 50% cut in spending by the U.S. Department of Education [3] Group 3 - The expansion of immigration raids has created a "chilling effect," causing workers to hesitate in attending work, which raises alarms among farmers and builders about potential economic growth costs [4] - The high tariffs and ongoing trade turmoil have led to a realization that tariffs may become a long-term policy norm, with the index measuring job openings versus layoffs falling into contraction territory [4] - The optimistic stock market sentiment contrasts sharply with the bleak assessment of the labor market, suggesting that ongoing hiring reductions to protect profit margins may render current earnings growth forecasts for S&P 500 companies overly optimistic [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities economists expect the Bank of Thailand to maintain its policy interest rate next week to assess the impact of the latest U.S. tariff dynamics [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Tightening credit standards and deteriorating loan quality in Thailand indicate a more pronounced negative feedback loop between a constrained financial environment and a sluggish economy [1] - Nomura Securities maintains its GDP growth forecast for Thailand at 1.8% for 2025, reflecting a cautious view on the negative feedback loop, vulnerability to U.S. tariffs, and rising domestic political uncertainty [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The firm anticipates that the Bank of Thailand will resume interest rate cuts in October and December of this year, as well as in the first quarter of 2026 [1]