Group 1 - The article highlights concerns about the U.S. labor market, indicating that employment faces downward risks, which could negatively impact the economic outlook [2] - Despite a surge in investments driven by the AI boom, hiring activities have nearly stalled, threatening the vital interaction between employment and consumer spending, which constitutes over two-thirds of the U.S. economy [2][3] - The trade war has led to the highest level of comprehensive import tariffs since the Great Depression, with U.S. importers paying $350 billion annually in tariffs, which is more than double the estimated scale of recent corporate tax cuts [2] Group 2 - Public spending and contract cuts are resulting in layoffs across federal, state, local governments, and healthcare sectors, with the impact not yet fully reflected in overall unemployment data [3] - The average number of new jobs added over the past three months has dropped significantly, from 168,000 in 2024 to just 29,000, while the unemployment rate has only slightly increased from 4.2% to 4.3% [3] - The education sector is facing a hiring downturn, with estimated job reductions exceeding 200,000 due to over a 50% cut in spending by the U.S. Department of Education [3] Group 3 - The expansion of immigration raids has created a "chilling effect," causing workers to hesitate in attending work, which raises alarms among farmers and builders about potential economic growth costs [4] - The high tariffs and ongoing trade turmoil have led to a realization that tariffs may become a long-term policy norm, with the index measuring job openings versus layoffs falling into contraction territory [4] - The optimistic stock market sentiment contrasts sharply with the bleak assessment of the labor market, suggesting that ongoing hiring reductions to protect profit margins may render current earnings growth forecasts for S&P 500 companies overly optimistic [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities economists expect the Bank of Thailand to maintain its policy interest rate next week to assess the impact of the latest U.S. tariff dynamics [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Tightening credit standards and deteriorating loan quality in Thailand indicate a more pronounced negative feedback loop between a constrained financial environment and a sluggish economy [1] - Nomura Securities maintains its GDP growth forecast for Thailand at 1.8% for 2025, reflecting a cautious view on the negative feedback loop, vulnerability to U.S. tariffs, and rising domestic political uncertainty [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The firm anticipates that the Bank of Thailand will resume interest rate cuts in October and December of this year, as well as in the first quarter of 2026 [1]