Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contradiction of finished steel products is that the blast furnace operating rate remains high due to good steel mill profits, but terminal demand gradually shrinks before the Spring Festival, leading to a lack of trading volume and inventory accumulation. Constrained by cost support and policies, the prices are in a range - bound state [1]. - The profit of electric arc furnaces continues to weaken, and there are signs of marginal weakening in blast furnace profits. In the short - term, steel mills may continue to increase production, and the possibility of significant production cuts is low [1]. - The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils will weaken seasonally, and the inventory of rebar will continue to accumulate, while hot - rolled coil inventory may shift from de - stocking to stocking [1]. - The steel mill's iron ore inventory replenishment is accelerating and may end next week. Iron ore port inventory is at a record high, but high blast furnace operating rates and potential increases in molten iron production will support iron ore prices. Coking coal prices are supported by seasonal weakening of mine operating rates but are pressured by high port inventory [2]. - Steel prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 may be between 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 may be between 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: Electric arc furnace profits weaken due to the narrowing of the iron - scrap price difference, while blast furnace profits remain stable. Steel mills may continue to increase production in the short - term [1]. - Demand side: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils weakens seasonally. Rebar inventory will continue to accumulate, and hot - rolled coil inventory may shift from de - stocking to stocking [1]. - Raw material side: Iron ore inventory replenishment by steel mills is accelerating and may end soon. Iron ore port inventory is at a record high. Coking coal prices are supported by seasonal weakening of mine operating rates but are pressured by high port inventory [2]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic: Steel mill profits are good, providing opportunities for hedging. Iron ore port inventory is rising, and the replenishment logic is weakening. Terminal demand is shrinking, and high blast furnace operating rates support iron ore prices. The nomination of the new Fed Chairman may impact market liquidity [6]. - Long - term trading expectations include anti - involution expectations for steel production cuts, demand support from major projects in the first year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, and export controls [6]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 is 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton [7]. - Month - spread strategy: Wait and see. Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Wait and see [7]. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits, and sell call options to reduce costs [7]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low inventory, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options to collect premiums [7]. 1.4 Data Overview - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices: Most prices decreased slightly compared to the previous week [8]. - Hot - rolled coil overseas data: Most export and import prices increased slightly compared to the previous week [9]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - Bullish information: Good steel mill profits and high operating rates support iron ore prices. Hot - rolled coil inventory is in a de - stocking trend. Coking coal operating rates are seasonally weak, supporting coking coal prices [9][10]. - Bearish information: No relevant information provided. - Spot trading information: No relevant information provided. 2.2 Next - week Important Event Concerns - Next Monday: The US will release the January manufacturing PMI. - Next Wednesday: The US will release the January ADP employment figures. - Next Thursday: The US will release the weekly initial jobless claims. - Next Friday: The US will release the January unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls [20]. Chapter 3:盘面解读 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - Basis: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts shows seasonal changes [17]. - Coil - rebar spread: The coil - rebar spread shows seasonal changes in different regions and contracts [19]. - Term structure: The term structure of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and coking coal futures shows different price differences at different time points [24][25]. - Month - spread structure: The month - spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures shows seasonal changes [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The profits of different steel products, including long - process rebar, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate, show different trends in the short - term and with raw material lag [36]. - The profit ratios of different steel products and the ratio of steel to iron ore and coke show seasonal changes [47]. 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - The estimated export profit of hot - rolled coils shows seasonal changes and has a leading relationship with export volume [52]. - The price differences between overseas and domestic hot - rolled coils, and the relationship between export profit and export orders are analyzed [57][59]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance and Forecast 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative consumption and production of five major steel products show different year - on - year changes, and inventory is at a certain level [76]. 5.2 Supply Side and Forecast - The supply of steel is affected by factors such as molten iron and scrap steel consumption, steel mill profitability, production capacity, and maintenance [80]. 5.3 Demand Side and Forecast - The demand for steel, including crude steel apparent demand, consumption of five major steel products, and consumption of different types of steel, shows seasonal trends [90].